10 dollar a gallon gas?

[Saturn_Fan]

Originally Posted By: bretfraz
Riots? Looting? Mass mayhem in the streets? Please..... some of you people watch too much TV. Rioters and looters may be a lot of things but they don't spend money and cannot be leveraged for profits. It's not good for business. Besides, if public tensions start to boil, the police will place curfews on the general public, cops at gas stations to enforce rationing and frequent roadside ID checks to keep the populace in their place, working, generating revenue and profits and maintain consumption.



You make some great points in your post, but I disagree with the last part. The New Orleans rioting, looting, roving gangs in the refugee stadium are all things happened with relative ease by the perpetrators. Yeah, the government shares some blame along with FEMA, but the pack mentality sure set in quickly in New Orleans.

 

[Win]

Originally Posted By: Kestas
The news this morning predicted by year 2100 the US population will be one billion, three times what we have now.

Somehow, I just don't see all these people living in McMansions and driving SUVs with cheap gas as we are now, plus have the fertile cropland to feed everyone. Something will have to give.


Intellectuals have periodically wrung their hands over this in the past and they have always been wrong.

In fact, that's one of the very best reasons to dismiss out of hand all the doom and gloom nonsense that the media and academics are constantly drumming up - they've always been wrong. Mass starvation, global cooling, nuclear winter - take your pick. They're always wrong.

Always.

They'll be just as wrong about whatever the "end of the world as we now know it" cause of the moment is. History teaches us this.

 

[bretfraz]

My rioting comment was created within the context of this thread, that society will collapse when gas prices reach a certain point.

I would not use Katrina as a realistic example of social implosion. It was a once-in-a-millennium catastrophe that affected the poorest area of the US. If the same storm hit someplace like San Diego or Austin, TX or Charleston, SC, would the same social problems occur? I don't think so. It sure won't happen if gas gets real expensive and anyone who does think that spends far too much time watching Mega Disasters and Wildest Police Chase videos, IMO.

 

[1999nick]

Originally Posted By: oilyriser
Originally Posted By: Saturn_Fan
By this I mean the scenario where people begin to form into packs and begin to take things like gas and food by force along with looting, etc.


The whole invasion of Iraq was about taking oil by force, so it has already started.


So, when do we start taking some of that Iraq oil? Last I heard, they were ripping our troops in Iraq off, making them pay over $4.00 per gallon for their fuel. Our government is timidly considering asking Iraq to give us a break on oil to help pay for the rebuilding of Iraq.

 

[JHZR2]

Originally Posted By: Kestas
The news this morning predicted by year 2100 the US population will be one billion, three times what we have now.

Somehow, I just don't see all these people living in McMansions and driving SUVs with cheap gas as we are now, plus have the fertile cropland to feed everyone. Something will have to give.


In the money section of USA today, the survey of 52 economists claimed that oil would stabilize at about $92... Just a few pages past where it said about the 1Billion people.

Not sure where the $200 figure came from on Hannity & Comes (sp?)... scare tactic to make news???

JMH

 

[Bambam]

What kind of investigation goes into reporting these days??? I say absolutely none,if it's scarey,morbid,foreboding,gloomy and depressing then it'll get printed,told and barraged at the masses without an ounce of evidence or truth! Fear mongering at it's finest!!!

 

[pbm]

So, when do we start taking some of that Iraq oil? Our government is timidly considering asking Iraq to give us a break on oil to help pay for the rebuilding of Iraq. [/quote]

This should be a requirement of our further involvement in Iraq!

When are the American taxpayers going to demand (from our bought and paid for politicians) that OUR tax dollars rebuild OUR schools, hospitals, bridges, highways etc...rather than Iraqs and Israels???

 

[Kestas]

I'm missing something here. Concensus seems to blame the presently high price of oil on speculators. If so, then this is temporary and it should come down sometime to a reasonable and realistic level. Remember how the price of silver was driven up by speculators back in 1980? The only thing that can sustain high oil prices is demand.

 

[Win]

Originally Posted By: Kestas
Remember how the price of silver was driven up by speculators back in 1980? The only thing that can sustain high oil prices is demand.


IIRC, it was only two speculators: the Hunt brothers, Nelson and Bunker(?). After they were done trying to corner the market in Silver, it was almost worthless for quite a while after that.

 

[bob_ninja]

Sure, tree huggers and speculators are the easy targets. Heck anyone we can blaim except ourselves. Here are a couple of questions:

How many tree huggers are elected officials in Washington, or governors, or city mayors, or any other office that makes decisions affecting gas prices?
How many greens are running companies, executives in oil and car companies?
How many are in any office/job that has a significant decision making powers?

Greens/tree huggers or whatever you want to call them have a tiny influence on the US and oil prices. Everyone likes to talk about Alaska and drilling limits while ignoring the fact that most of our oil comes from other places, like middle east, africa, south america, etc. Guess who is a big player there. Yep, it is Bush and the army and Haliburton, all these organizations and companies which are *NOT* managed by tree huggers.

So tree huggers of all people have the least to do with high oil prices.

As for speculators, for them to have some sort of real impact they must buy/sell on margin. A speculator that takes a $1mil position simply has no effect. However, when he takes a $1mil position using options, calls/puts, etc. that have a 100:1 leverage, now his impact is $100mil. Then his can influence oil price.

However, when prices go against them, such as now they dropped $3, this speculator is loosing a lot. He gets a margin call and his entire position is wiped out. So speculators don't have any staying power. They can push prices up/down $10, but as soon as prices goes against them they cover. So their impact is short lived and limited. They don't just wake up one morning and decide to move oil price to $200/barrel. Doesn't work.

The higher prices, like $10/gal will certainly cause collapse of the current living standard and change the current habits, economy and how we do business. There will be big changes. However, we can/will adapt to *ANY* price.

Someone mentioned move closer to work. Actually, there is a middle ground as well - telecommuting. We can/will make a better use of our tek/infrastructure to reduce travel. So telecommuting will become a common standard and workers will come to the office only for specific necessary meetings, events, etc. So we may give up the practice of working from office all the time.

Same goes for shopping. Instead of many trips for a few items we'll simply reduce them to a single trip for a bunch of stuff.

Some practices will simply disappear. Air travel will go back to being a luxury for super rich. There is just no way around it. There is no fuel that is affordable enough to keep air tavel economical.

Also, people talk about better mass transit in Europe. Well, sure enough it will be built in North America in no time. Again, there is no choice once gas is too expensive. So we may start commuting more, or doing more park and ride, etc.

At some point when gas price is way too high we'll just have to switch to electric cars. Most everyone can charge them at home from solar panels and wind turbines, so you are no longer dependent on gas and oil companies. Once their product is too expensive you just have to switch away from it. Free market.

The bottom line is we'll survive and keep driving, just not as much. There is also a huge impact on agriculture, but that is enough for one post.

 

[Saturn_Fan]

Very intelligently written post bob_ninja.

I agree that air travel will be out of reach more many Americans in the not to distant future.

I think the solar panels will become even more advanced,less expensive and will be integral in charging up the cars.

 

[MrCritical]

I will agree with ninja. We will adapt at any price. The only thing that will change our driving habits is availability.

 

[bob_ninja]

Thanks

The big problem now is that current solar panel production is still too expensive. They are working on less efficient but much cheaper panels.

The other nasty side effect is that we are now going back to coal (mines wordwide cannot keep up with demand) and a lot of people such as in the north and north east are going back to wood stoves. I am now using my fireplace a lot more these days.

Anyway pretty soon there will be a major increase in R&D for solar, wind, even waves energy.

 

[Steve S]

Originally Posted By: bretfraz
My rioting comment was created within the context of this thread, that society will collapse when gas prices reach a certain point.

I would not use Katrina as a realistic example of social implosion. It was a once-in-a-millennium catastrophe that affected the poorest area of the US. If the same storm hit someplace like San Diego or Austin, TX or Charleston, SC, would the same social problems occur? I don't think so. It sure won't happen if gas gets real expensive and anyone who does think that spends far too much time watching Mega Disasters and Wildest Police Chase videos, IMO.
People on welfare get real upset when they may have to take some responsibility.

 

[ekpolk]

Originally Posted By: Steve S
...People on welfare get real upset when they may have to take some responsibility.


I represent Americans from all levels of the social strata who have been charged with crimes of one sort or another. I am 110% convinced that responsibility-taking is not dependent upon where you fall in the social stratum at all. Almost everyone in this country seems to feel that they are entitled to a free pass when they're caught doing something wrong. There is much good in our country, but that said, NO-ONE wants to take responsibility for anything bad that they've done. And that's a 100% constant, from neurosurgeons to ditch diggers. Don't kid yourself otherwise...

 

[VeeDubb]

Bob ninja, that was the best post in this thread.

 

[BuickGN]

Originally Posted By: ekpolk
Originally Posted By: Steve S
...People on welfare get real upset when they may have to take some responsibility.


I represent Americans from all levels of the social strata who have been charged with crimes of one sort or another. I am 110% convinced that responsibility-taking is not dependent upon where you fall in the social stratum at all. Almost everyone in this country seems to feel that they are entitled to a free pass when they're caught doing something wrong. There is much good in our country, but that said, NO-ONE wants to take responsibility for anything bad that they've done. And that's a 100% constant, from neurosurgeons to ditch diggers. Don't kid yourself otherwise...


I agree that most people don't want to take responsibility for anything bad they've done. But... the welfare group is the biggest offender by a long shot. They're also the ones most likely to resort to rioting instead of using their brains to come up with a solution.

 

[BuickGN]

Originally Posted By: bob_ninja
Thanks

The big problem now is that current solar panel production is still too expensive. They are working on less efficient but much cheaper panels.

The other nasty side effect is that we are now going back to coal (mines wordwide cannot keep up with demand) and a lot of people such as in the north and north east are going back to wood stoves. I am now using my fireplace a lot more these days.

Anyway pretty soon there will be a major increase in R&D for solar, wind, even waves energy.


My dad who works for the State Dept in Baghdad just bought $25,000 worth of solar cells for the house. He seems to think that energy costs won't be going down.....ever.

We ended up going with more reserve than we need for the current electricity used just in case in the future there is an electric car plugged in. IMO, the only way electric cars make sense is if they're charged by solar cells or wind energy. Charging it from the grid off of a coal fired power plant is dirtier than any regular IC engine.

 

[ChromiumSteel]

In the last few years a bunch of folks in my neighborhood had to copy each other and get Dodge Rams. All in white or silver. The guy next door is a rebel and got a new Ford. Me? I can't even imagine paying for 13 MPG gas mileage.

 

[bob_ninja]

Originally Posted By: VeeDubb
Bob ninja, that was the best post in this thread.


Actually I am learning a lot about oil from:

The Oil Drum

Some of the stories are rather depressing, bit extreme.
Still the site has a lot of detailed analysis, sometimes too much detail