pbm, the only way to tell is to tell for sure is compare the two different oils with analysis.
Outside of that, my best guess is that it probably doesn't matter. I'm not sold on the cold-cranking numbers of some 5w20 conventionals out there...that they are THAT much better than their 5w30 counterparts. Check the mfr's data sheets to see if the 5w30 has better CC sim numbers than the 5w-20 counterpart. For example, Chevron/Havoline 5w20 CC spec is 5200cP and the 5w30 CC spec is 5700cP. Pennzoil 5w-20 CC spec is shown to be 5200 and the 5w30 is 5800cP.
I don't consider the difference in CC spec numbers, about 10%, to be too different to really notice in real world, day-to-day performance.
For comparison's sake, Chevron/Havoline's 5w-20 'full' synthetic shows a CC viscosity of 4200cP. Amsoil's 5w-20 synthetic, XLM, CC sim viscosity of 3818cP. Pennzoil's 5w-20 Platinum synthetic product, 4250cP. I couldn't find a CC spec number at Mobil's site. So the synthetic versions will have lower cold-cranking resistance.
From my seat of the pants view, using 5w-20 or 5w30 on ice cold 6°F mornings yielded no dicernable difference in engine sounds on my old Saturn. Comparatively, using 10w30 High Mileage oils was a different story...and I quickly switched it out for a 5w oil.
My recommendation is to use whatever 5w-20 or 5w30 that you like. While 0w oils are the 'best of the best' for cold cranking, I doubt it ever gets that cold, from what you describe, to warrant the "zero" in the 0w-20. Then again, I have Mobil 1 0w-20 in my crankcase now!