Why is it taking so long for production to come back?

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It wasn’t unemployment it was the added kicker. With the federal additive of $300 per week companies couldn’t compete at $15/hr. Unemployment plus federal aid was paying that much.

most manufacturing jobs in our area pay $15 to $25 per hour.

Just my $0.02
Depends on the state. $15/hour works out to about $600 a week at 40 hours. There's about 6 states where the max weekly unemployment is capped at under $300 a week. The lowest is Mississippi at $235 a week.

https://savingtoinvest.com/maximum-weekly-unemployment-benefits-by-state/

Also about 26 states have cut the $300 and it's not clear that it was really the factor. I guess we'll really know in September.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonath...oosted-labor-market-yet-morgan-stanley-finds/
 
Welcome to the world of grown-up choices. Some people throughout history have had to make make the choice to not have kids they can't afford, or adequately take care of...
Yeah I heard that argument a lot, people these days don't have a lot of kids around me, most only 2 and many just 1, rarely 3 or more.

Oh, you cannot predict a 1 in a 100 year plague though, or how things can go in the middle of a tech boom like school going all online for 1.5 years. I am glad I do fine, but I can definitely see many people switch job because some of those jobs cannot be done by anyone with a reasonable family for the amount they pay. Then also those job type switches between all sorts of field with near 0% interest rate.

One example I have seen a couple years ago, is a mom driving Doordash / Uber Eat with a worn out car and a kid in the back seat. That's working without childcare. She wouldn't work in McD for $15 per hour, she would pick these driving job that pays $10 per hour instead. Nanny also probably won't take a paycut to take care of only 1 family's worth of kid during lockdown, so they probably end up teaching kids "online" and the mom / dad has to "work from home" whether they like it or not.

Now since many people (most I know are either too old or too young to be current gen parents) say you have to make choices to not have kids they cannot afford, I would like to hear your forecast on the cost of having kid in the next 18 years, and why.
 
Don't you mean Elon? I don't think Bezos wants to go to Mars and I wouldn't want a new planet to be colonized by bozos. Although maybe that wouldn't be too unusual, Australia was colonized by criminals. (But not bozos.)
Bezos is a cheapskate that will never go anywhere. He believes in incremental improvement and frugality (quote his leadership principles). His legacy is a cheap $42M clock that hide away for 10000 years so nobody can vandalize it. I would not be surprised if he figure he would just buy a ticket to space on Virgin and fire the whole rocket team.
 
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Working folks pay taxes, the fat cats don't.

We have workers lined up at the border that would love to take a lot of these jobs that can't be filled.

I find it hard to believe $300/week in UI is causing the shortage. If it is, those companies really need to take a look at the salary they are offering.


Do some big big corporations not pay taxes??? Ok... Especially "special" connected corporations.


Have some moved elsewhere to avoid Federal taxes ? = Yes...

However....

The United States Statistical Abstract clearly shows the top 90 percent of income earners pay a strong majority of federal taxes.... The less than 50 percentile pay hardly any federal taxes.

Look up United States Statistical Abstract...

Those numbers are directly from your Federal govt.

And fat cats.... Equals who???

How about a doctor and a pharmacist.... That are married... = Fat cats... Yes... That's true.

How about a orthodontist and a orthopedic surgeon married ?? = Fat cats... True.

The quote unquote "fat cat" line is actually not all that high a bar too reach. According to the tax brackets. And people in that bracket pay taxes. A lot of taxes.
 
Do some big big corporations not pay taxes??? Ok... Especially "special" connected corporations.


Have some moved elsewhere to avoid Federal taxes ? = Yes...

However....

The United States Statistical Abstract clearly shows the top 90 percent of income earners pay a strong majority of federal taxes.... The less than 50 percentile pay hardly any federal taxes.

Look up United States Statistical Abstract...

Those numbers are directly from your Federal govt.

And fat cats.... Equals who???

How about a doctor and a pharmacist.... That are married... = Fat cats... Yes... That's true.

How about a orthodontist and a orthopedic surgeon married ?? = Fat cats... True.

The quote unquote "fat cat" line is actually not all that high a bar too reach. According to the tax brackets. And people in that bracket pay taxes. A lot of taxes.
Those are just upper middle class, not fat cats.

Anyways, it is irresponsible for corp accountants not to exploit legal loopholes, that's what they are supposed to do. I have no problem with that. The reality is tax saving for rich is everywhere and the biggest problem really is the cost of labor being lower than 3rd world labor + shipping. Reality also is that China is getting expensive and is in a trade war with us for years, and manufacturing was in the middle of a move from China to Vietnam / Mexico when the lockdown started. Our relationship is not good enough that we get preferred treatment to get us what we need and they get all their customers from elsewhere already. I am sure China is having the same problem with importing US made product in short supply as well, so it is fair.

A lot of dentists were losing money because people were not visiting the whole last year, one hospital I know of that my friend works in said they lost most of the elective surgery patients last year, and had to lay off people. The winner of all this are the people who sold their home in expensive area, moving to a cheaper place, and work remotely for a slight pay cut, couldn't go on a vacation so they saved a lot of money, didn't eat out because they were working from home, didn't use much gas because they didn't commute anymore, etc etc.
 
Orthodontist make serious money.... Big money.... They live in gated big money communities...

Orthopedic surgeons make big money... Big money and live in gated community.

Pharmacist make really good money... Same as above...

People who live in gated places are fat cats.... People who live in those places are not living anything like 95 plus percent of the regular population.

They are in the top bracket.

The are fat cats..... Compared to the people at the bottom of the tax bracket.
 
You don't know people I have met....

And I have quite an idea what and where those people live....

I also know what houses are in those big money gated communities. I have worked in them at Ford's Colony, Governor's Land, and Kingsmill.... Here in Williamsburg.

Orthopedic surgeons live there.. gastric surgeons live there. Orthodontist live there. Pharmacist live there. Regular family primary care doctors live in those places.

They are in that top tax bracket... They pay taxes... A lot of them.

Now the uber super wealthy aka people who could afford the Mars estate that was for sale for $24,995,000 in 2005... In my home county of Gloucester.

Those people are extraordinarily rare people indeed who could actually afford that.
 
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As Wolf359 said, a number of states have ended or chosen not to pay people on unemployment the extra $300 per week the feds added. If you aren't going to get that extra money, then that can't be the reason you aren't working, right?

Here's something else no one has mentioned yet: most states had waived the requirement of looking for work to get unemployment last year when everything was locked down. After all, if you want everyone to stay at home, requiring them to go out and look for work makes no sense. Lockdowns are broadly over now. And now in most states those waivers are gone. Virginia started requiring people on unemployment to look for work in early June.

So the claim some idiot business executives are still making that "overly generous unemployment benefits" are keeping them from finding workers doesn't hold water. Instead, let's ask some questions of these execs:

Do you still have idiotic degree or certification requirements for working for you that have nothing to do with the job? Why do you want a warehouse worker or repair person to have a bachelor's degree? Is it to avoid hiring certain classes of people?

Are you still expecting employees to work for peanuts? What kind of worker do you expect to get for $10–$12/hour?

Do you bother to offer benefits such as paid leave, medical insurance, and a 401(k) with match? Or do those interfere with your yacht payments?

When it comes to the shortages, I stand by my assertion that most or all are staged. I agree with the OP that we shouldn't be seeing most of them over a year later. Clearly it's about raising prices to some new level where they'll stick. The producers aren't necessarily the ones doing this. Look at middlemen as a cause for shortages and higher prices.

Notice this: now that lumber prices have gone through the roof, suddenly plenty of lumber seems to be available—at the higher prices, which don't seem to be in a hurry to come down. Big players can manipulate markets. Look up the term "rent seekers" sometime.

All of the above play a role with what we see.

Now a side observation: many businesses have obviously used the pandemic as a flimsy excuse to cut service. My employer stopped using a national truck line because it used COVID, even a few months ago, as the excuse for not delivering per contract. We had been using its costly expedited delivery service, again per contract, to get heavy items delivered across the US.

Suddenly it was taking as long as a normal truck line to deliver—but we were still paying the big bucks for the service we weren't getting. Not any more. Clearly this kind of thing doesn't help the overall picture.

About trucking, by the way, last year some big companies forced carriers, including owner-operators, to accept big cuts in payment. Allegedly Walmart was one. The cuts were as much as a third of past payment rates. This might be a reason for the problems with finding drivers...
 
Let's have everyone pay $35 an hour entry pay for everyone.

$15 is nothing in places like NY or west coast.
 
Chill with the all caps. She has had this job for 30 years … you can represent your area … not mine
How much of the USA do you think live like you and Jeff do ?

BTW: all my kids are grown and we paid 100% …
Is it just me or until recently has there been a push for “free” childcare. Almost like there’s more of an incentive to have kids. Hmmmm.

Parents need childcare because schools are closed because it’s not safe then there’s a push for free childcare.

A bit OT, but I used to work with a guy about my age (late 20’s) who felt he was more entitled to a job (and food on the table) than me because he and his girlfriend had 4 children. Rubbed me the wrong way and still does.
 
I could understand products and supplies being in short supply during the pandemic, but we're far enough along now that we should not still be seeing these shortages. Why is it taking so long for things to get back to full production?

The countries where they actually produce stuff haven't had vaccines yet and are still in full covid pandemic.
 
Is it just me or until recently has there been a push for “free” childcare. Almost like there’s more of an incentive to have kids. Hmmmm.

Parents need childcare because schools are closed because it’s not safe then there’s a push for free childcare.

A bit OT, but I used to work with a guy about my age (late 20’s) who felt he was more entitled to a job (and food on the table) than me because he and his girlfriend had 4 children. Rubbed me the wrong way and still does.
Well … I live where I was born … and we have a steady flow of poor kids … many with parents who work for low wages. These families get many benefits including daycare - but that business does not teach formal English … instead the daycare hires bilingual employees that they can communicate with children and families … So the kids start learning formal English only when public school age …
 
Why not flip it around and blame the business for not wanting to pay more than minimum wage? How come there's never a shortage of CEOs? Or upper level management? An extra $300 a week isn't exactly killing it, it's just an extra $7.50 an hour but because employment typically gives you just half the regular wages, they're basically making an extra $3.25 if that. Or that other companies like Amazon, Costco, Target, etc are paying more and the ones who would have worked those jobs found higher paying ones.
I have had positions that pay $17-$35/hr + benefits unfilled for over a year. In the previous 10 years, we could fill these positions in days to weeks.
 
That is what people want to believe. However many people who worked in shut down businesses moved onto other fields and reeducated themselves. Who wants to work retail, factory work, food worker etc when they have new jobs with likely better pay, nicer working conditions and better career path.

Locally businesses who pay well have NO ISSUE hiring workers. The ones thinking $8-10/hr is acceptable and then adding a few more dollars struggle. Not their fault shut down but now raise your prices enough attract enough help.
This is just not true...at least in dentistry. Can't offer much more than $17/hr + benefits (easily worth another $6/hr) for an entry-level position as a steri-tech - a position that requires no experience and is fairly easy. We have a position for a receptionist that starts at $20/hr + benefits with no experience that we can't fill. We have a position for a hygienist that starts at $35/hr + benefits for someone right out of school that we can't fill. Everyday I see multiple posts from other practices nationwide complaining that no one wants to work and they can not fill positions - even the ones who are now offering above market pay.
 
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Have you heard about the writing on the wall? If you're the only one left maybe they're paying you too little? It's tricky asking about a raise though, that could backfire on you, they may give it to you now, when it's time to get rid of you or they find a good replacement, they'll fire you without blinking an eye. Maybe you should look around, there are probably better opportunities out there which is why they can't find people at the wage they're offering.
No I haven’t. But the reason they are gone is because one dropped a new Corvette off a Jack and it hit a lift arm and damaged the underskirt and the car is so new we are still waiting on a replacement for it. The other one got fired because he come in saying his education was better than everyone else’s and that he knows more than anyone else that works there and then he made an inappropriate remark to someone about their name so they fired him. The place is amazing to work for. It couldn’t be better honestly I get treated with respect and get treated what I’m worth.
 
No I haven’t. But the reason they are gone is because one dropped a new Corvette off a Jack and it hit a lift arm and damaged the underskirt and the car is so new we are still waiting on a replacement for it. The other one got fired because he come in saying his education was better than everyone else’s and that he knows more than anyone else that works there and then he made an inappropriate remark to someone about their name so they fired him. The place is amazing to work for. It couldn’t be better honestly I get treated with respect and get treated what I’m worth.
Blake: you will be there a good while. I don’t care what anyone says. Incompetent techs, liars, etc always get weeded out eventually. Glad you are doing great 😍🍺👍
 
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