I think the economy needs a recession

Status
Not open for further replies.
Joined
Oct 8, 2006
Messages
12,016
Location
OH
IMO, that's the only thing that will level out prices. Back when I retired in '20, I was certain I retired with enough income to maintain the comfortable lifestyle my wife and I had when I was working, and for the most part, we have. But lately I've noticed I'm now paying double for most essentials, compared to pre-pandemic prices. Our budget is still holding up, but we have less disposable income now. Prices of everything keep going up and up. This has got to peak at some point. A recession would be like a reset...consumers have less money because everything's more expensive, so they buy less...less products sold means prices have to come down. If prices keep rising like they are, us consumers will just run out of money...I know that's an extreme example and will never happen, but it's the same in principle...
 
IMO, that's the only thing that will level out prices. Back when I retired in '20, I was certain I retired with enough income to maintain the comfortable lifestyle my wife and I had when I was working, and for the most part, we have. But lately I've noticed I'm now paying double for most essentials, compared to pre-pandemic prices. Our budget is still holding up, but we have less disposable income now. Prices of everything keep going up and up. This has got to peak at some point. A recession would be like a reset...consumers have less money because everything's more expensive, so they buy less...less products sold means prices have to come down. If prices keep rising like they are, us consumers will just run out of money...I know that's an extreme example and will never happen, but it's the same in principle...
Unfortunately devaluing the currency has consequences… And there’s not a lot of investments that can keep up with inflation!
 
IMO, that's the only thing that will level out prices. Back when I retired in '20, I was certain I retired with enough income to maintain the comfortable lifestyle my wife and I had when I was working, and for the most part, we have. But lately I've noticed I'm now paying double for most essentials, compared to pre-pandemic prices. Our budget is still holding up, but we have less disposable income now. Prices of everything keep going up and up. This has got to peak at some point. A recession would be like a reset...consumers have less money because everything's more expensive, so they buy less...less products sold means prices have to come down. If prices keep rising like they are, us consumers will just run out of money...I know that's an extreme example and will never happen, but it's the same in principle...
I think gasoline needs to go higher !
 
IMO, that's the only thing that will level out prices. Back when I retired in '20, I was certain I retired with enough income to maintain the comfortable lifestyle my wife and I had when I was working, and for the most part, we have. But lately I've noticed I'm now paying double for most essentials, compared to pre-pandemic prices. Our budget is still holding up, but we have less disposable income now. Prices of everything keep going up and up. This has got to peak at some point. A recession would be like a reset...consumers have less money because everything's more expensive, so they buy less...less products sold means prices have to come down. If prices keep rising like they are, us consumers will just run out of money...I know that's an extreme example and will never happen, but it's the same in principle...
I understand your frustration. Even if your budget is technically still working, losing disposable income because essentials cost so much more is real, especially for retirees on fixed or mostly fixed income.

Where I differ a little is on the idea that a recession would be a clean reset. A recession can reduce demand, and that can slow price increases or bring some prices down. But it usually comes with a lot of collateral damage - job losses, lower investment returns, weaker retirement accounts, business failures, and more financial stress for the same consumers who are already stretched. Also, a lot of prices do not fully go back to where they were before the recession. Sometimes inflation slows, but the new higher price level sticks. So instead of getting a true reset, people may just end up with high prices plus a weaker economy.

I think what people really want is not necessarily a recession. They want price stability, better competition, less corporate price-gouging where it exists, stronger supply chains, and incomes or retirement adjustments that keep up with the actual cost of living. So I agree with your core concern - something has to give when essentials keep eating more of people’s budgets. I’m just not sure a recession is the best cure, because the cure can hurt a lot of the same people we are trying to help.
 
A recession would be like a reset...
Yep. Lots of things would be "reset". 10,000's of people could lose jobs, 401k's could be cut in half, millions more could go on welfare, just for starters. All just to help you with prices?

Why on earth would someone actually want a recession, unless there is an agenda behind it. This does happen.
 
Only the insiders win during recessions. Others are just lucky to be in a correct position. For all you know most of your investments could be wiped out by one.

Read up on the history of recessions. They don’t happen organically, but are planned. And if you look at wealth transfer, the majority of it happens during a recession period. Careful what you wish for.
 
Yep. Lots of things would be "reset". 10,000's of people could lose jobs, 401k's could be cut in half, millions more could go on welfare, just for starters. All just to help you with prices?

Why on earth would someone actually want a recession, unless there is an agenda behind it. This does happen.
To help me with prices? How about all consumers? Do you have a suggestion, or just a disagreement?
 
His point is that it may help with prices, but wipe out investments, property values and put tens of thousands of people out of work.
That's never a good thing either. I don't know what else would break this trend of inflation...
 
I also retired in '20 and thought the same as you then and have the same concerns now. Don't agree about a recession being a good thing. What we need is solid responsible thoughtful leadership but that doesn't seem possible anymore. <- not political, universal statement.
I never said a recession was a good thing, but maybe we're in one of the situations where things gotta get worse before they can get better...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom