Where is the Electricity going to come to charge EVs ?

[JeffKeryk]

I don't know the answer to your question, but I do know that EVs are in their infancy and technology is improving at a fairly good pace. What may not work for some today will work better for more people tomorrow.

Absolutely true.
In fact, this is Musk's stated plan.

 

[Kestas]

Commercial FUSION will change everything. I have heard the old adage, it's always 10 years away, but I think were getting much closer than ever.

One of my theses in school has applications with fusion technology. That was 35 years ago. I haven't seen any progress with this technology.

 

[Owen Lucas]

I live in CA; no one told me not to charge my car. Can you identify your source? Thanks!
By the way, my electricity bill runs about $9 per month.

How is your bill only $9 a month? Even if you have a massive solar array and power wall I figured the connection fee to the grid would cost more? That's a great deal obviously, is this the case for many other people?

Now, if your main source of electricity was coal, the emissions intensity will actually be higher with the EV.

All those Tesla's in WV are rolling coal?

Same as the cure for cancer or even the common cold?

We're getting closer for sure. Tokomak in France is looking interesting but if I had to predict a time frame it won't be until the 2050's that something commercial will be available. So much research into medicine right now I think cancer will be cured within 50 years and a universal virus vaccine will be highly likely as well.

That would be scary as heck. And not sure about which generation, but I'm reading one showing a 0-60 MPH time of more than 14 seconds.

Honda CRX also has virtually no crash protection as well.

 

[Shel_B]

I'm not biased for or against EV's from a political standpoint. I'm just sick of the archaic design of ICE's. Time to move on. And take shoelaces with you!

I've been watching some auto repair videos and am amazed at how complex the engines have become in order to run cleanly, produce good mileage, and comply with a myriad of regulations. Looking at all that's been added to ICEs since the first simple emissions controls suggests that the ICE as we know it is nearing the end of the line. It is an old technology trying to keep up in a fast-changing world.

I like the convenience of the ICE in my Camry, the ease of supplying it with fuel and oil, but those halcyon days are waning, the times they are a changing. I'll be gone before the ICE is gone, so in a way, I don't care, yet having seen the potential of EVs, solar and alternative energy sources, I say the future can't come soon enough for me.

 

[Kestas]

Keep in mind that probably only 16 to 20% of the energy pumped into internal combustion vehicles is actually used to move them. Hybrids get better mileage especially in city use. Total efficiency of an electric car from charger to wheels is 70 to 80%.

It would only be fair to include efficiency the production and distribution costs. For example, how efficient are power stations in converting natural gas to electricity? And how efficient are our transmission lines?

The absolute true measure is economics of turning the wheels in our cars.

 

[OVERKILL]

Highest efficiency with internal combustion engines is near peak power - basically just a matter of Carnot efficiency. Almost nobody would be using an ICE vehicle engine near peak power very often. My 227 HP engine is probably only generating about 20 HP at freeway speeds - maybe less. But that's dealing with the efficiency of the engine, and not all the parasitic losses from dealing with wind resistance, which really spike if I'm trying to drive that fast. That's why smaller engines in the same vehicle body yield better fuel economy. They're operating closer to the peak, but then they have less power on tap for acceleration, hills, towing, etc.

But industrial power plants run near peak output all the time. That's the primary difference.

The ideal for electric-powered vehicles is external power, like a 3rd rail or overhead lines. However, electric motors operate near their peak efficiency for almost their entire range. That's the biggest difference really.

The ideal for a car is how the Prius operates with the Atkinson Cycle, which yields a real-world efficiency of around 40-41% because the engine is always operating in the sweet spot. The overall powertrain is of course even more efficient because of regenerative braking and the engine avoiding being used for takeoff.

Baseload plants indeed operate near peak output, but gas peakers do not, which greatly reduces efficiency. Even the most efficient CCGT plants, If they are chasing wind and solar, they are heavily manipulating their output, which dramatically reduces their efficiency.

And yes, electric motors are inherently more efficient, but you still have to look at what is producing the electricity.

 

[Slow Car Sport Mode]

But, hey ... I live in California, pay a reasonable amount of attention to this subject, and have never heard or read that we shouldn't charge our cars.

Sources, links, substantiation please ...

I believe you have. Substantiate yourself when the heat wave comes and they again tell you to not charge, Californian

 

[OVERKILL]

But how much did your solar panels cost? Edit to add, I see you answered that. $17K.

Well, $29K, but the other taxpayers or ratepayers picked up the $12K tab to subsidize it.

 

[Slow Car Sport Mode]

I don't know the answer to your question, but I do know that EVs are in their infancy and technology is improving at a fairly good pace. What may not work for some today will work better for more people tomorrow.

I am curious as to how far the limits of battery technology can be pushed.

GM did have a "skateboard" design in the works since the late 90s or so ? so.. nobody said he's he's weren't going to gain and popularity but the question is can they replace ICE all together and there are many that think they cannot...

 

[OVERKILL]

But, hey ... I live in California, pay a reasonable amount of attention to this subject, and have never heard or read that we shouldn't charge our cars.

Sources, links, substantiation please ...

It was a twitter post by CAISO that accompanied this Flex Alert:
http://www.caiso.com/Documents/ISO-Issues-Flex-Alert-for-Energy-Conservation-Tomorrow.pdf

Telling people to charge their EV's beforehand, to help reduce demand during the Flex Alert period.

 

[y_p_w]

I don't know the answer to your question, but I do know that EVs are in their infancy and technology is improving at a fairly good pace. What may not work for some today will work better for more people tomorrow.

Sorry - it wasn't a question. It should have read:

"What electric gets the consumer IS decent efficiency over a larger range of speeds and conditions."

For instance, an ICE idling is obviously getting almost zero work done other than maybe recharging the battery and keeping the electronics powered. But an electric motor simply won't receive any power just sitting somewhere. It's pretty efficient at almost any speed.

A diesel-electric locomotive has pretty high efficiency even though it's really just a diesel generator powering electric motors. I haven't heard of any using regenerative braking (since they're required to use air brakes) but the diesel portion can be run at near peak, while the electric drive can generate decent power without stalling.

 

[Kestas]

I'm not biased for or against EV's from a political standpoint. I'm just sick of the archaic design of ICE's. Time to move on. And take shoelaces with you!

Archaic doesn't mean obsolete. For example, roller bearing metallurgy hasn't changed in 60 years! Refined perhaps... but not changed.

One turnoff with ICEs is their complexity that evolved over the decades to satisfy overly stringent emission mandates. This is where EVs have a good inroad into the automotive market.

 

[Silver]

Archaic doesn't mean obsolete. For example, roller bearing metallurgy hasn't changed in 60 years! Refined perhaps... but not changed.

One turnoff with ICEs is their complexity that evolved over the decades to satisfy overly stringent emission mandates. This is where EVs have a good inroad into the automotive market.

No but it should lead to obsolete. I do agree with your point, though. We've created impractical monsters out of simple, reliable ICE's. V8's were getting close to 30 mpg in 1990. 30 years and a thousand tiny plastic parts later they're getting 25 with DOD and ticking lifters.

 

[Wolf359]

This discussion always seems to come up every few months. The main thing that people who are running around like chicken little miss is that you don't need to charge every EV all the time. There's plenty of capacity in the evening. The grid is basically designed to run your A/C in hot weather and sometimes there isn't enough during that time. With smart meters, you don't charge your EV at those times or if you do, you pay top dollar. In the winter there's usually plenty of power.

As for that $9 monthly cost for electricity with solar power, that's also subsidized, doesn't really pay enough for the grid and they're getting paid top dollar for those kilowatts they send back to the grid. Non solar users are basically subsidizing the early solar converters. It's sorta like how people who pay cash are really subsidizing the people who use credit cards.

 

[Wolf359]

No but it should lead to obsolete. I do agree with your point, though. We've created impractical monsters out of simple, reliable ICE's. V8's were getting close to 30 mpg in 1990. 30 years and a thousand tiny plastic parts later they're getting 25 with DOD and ticking lifters.

Name a car with a V8 from the 90's that got close to 30mpg. I don't remember any. The big difference is probably the safety aspect of it. Side impact protection, air bags, ABS etc all added extra weight.

If you do a search, there's basically two cars that come close at 26/28 mpg on the highway, there's no car that even comes close on the combined cycle.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Pow...ge=&tCharge=&startstop=&cylDeact=&rowLimit=50

And there's actually one car in the last 10 years that gets 30 mpg on the highway with a V8.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Pow...ge=&tCharge=&startstop=&cylDeact=&rowLimit=50

So you're wrong on both counts.

 

[alarmguy]

Keep in mind that probably only 16 to 20% of the energy pumped into internal combustion vehicles is actually used to move them. Hybrids get better mileage especially in city use. Total efficiency of an electric car from charger to wheels is 70 to 80%

For sure some electrical utilities aren't ready for much more peak capacity but there needs to be a lot more electric vehicles in most places for their charging to bump up peak demand. In any case natural gas generators are pretty cheap to build and run, and those could be used to keep electricity rates reasonable while the utilities balance generation with demand from the electric vehicle integration period.

This is the point of the thread, no electric utility is ready for one to three electric vehicles for every American family.
We do not have the capacity and we do not have the infrastructure. All I was saying is I doubt very much market saturation will surpass 10% for electric vehicles in the next 10 years because of that and 20% maybe 15 to 20 years.

 

[loneryder]

Only slightly off topic, but if I had 2 EV's (let's say Model 3 performance) that could directly DC charge from 15,000w worth of solar panels, I could switch between them every other day for local driving. Total cost: $150,000. Seems worthwhile, no?

From a more practical standpoint, EV's will become an ever increasing grid load over a period of time measured in decades. Plenty of time to upgrade power production if we plan properly.

Who's going to do that proper planning?

 

[alarmguy]

They aren't sized to handle the load of the entire city, hence the term "peaker".

They aren’t sized to charge up the entire population of your city either.
We maybe able to get to ten percent(?) of vehicles. Before major infrastructure changes will be need to be made.
We can’t expect today’s generating capacity and the infrastructure used to deliver the electricity to make up for all the gasoline fueling stations in the country without major upgrades and that is going to take a long time if electric vehicles even become a thing for American families

 

[loneryder]

It seems like people in the American southwest have a distorted notion of solar as their weather does not compare to the rest of the country.

Yes. Solar is viable in Ca., Az, Tx, and FL. The further north you go from these states, the less viable it is.

 

[K.Aoi]

One of my theses in school has applications with fusion technology. That was 35 years ago. I haven't seen any progress with this technology.

There has been a *lot* of progress in the last couple of years on Fusion, and it's well within reach now with refinements. The last 12 months alone has seen massive progress, they're getting there. Besides that, I think increasing wind/solar with batteries or pumped gravity storage hydro will supplement new nuclear, whether in large or small modular reactor form are the way forward. France just announced a bunch of new commercial power reactors, and China/India have been building a bunch for years, time for us to get onboard.