GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
Always interesting to see these graphics. Trends indicate some of the migrations from covid have significantly slowed. But the trend of domestic migration from the Upper Midwest and the Northeast shows no signs of reversing.
On a positive, those folks domestically migrating from the Upper Midwest and the Northeast to the South and West appear to have some ability to negotiate in the purchase of homes, the Sellers markets continue in the West and South, but not anywhere near the Sellers market it was just 30 months ago.
I don't concur that reponing of offices are part of the reason for the domestic migration slowdown. Homes in the South and West are still selling at or near record highs, and with 30-year mortgages at their highest level in four years, it makes it very tough to sell a home in the Upper Midwest or Northeast and afford a home in the South or West.
From Chuck Cowan:
While Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida continue to see positive net migration, it’s far less domestic migration than during the Pandemic Housing Boom.
Florida net domestic migration, by year:
2019 -> +133K
2020 -> +63K
2021 -> +247K
2022 -> +314K
2023 -> +185K
2024 -> +64K
Migration shifts—and changes in the pace of migration—matter for the housing market, as they can shift the local supply-demand equilibrium.
Many of the softest housing markets, where homebuyers have gained leverage, are located in Sun Belt regions of the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. These areas were home to many of the nation’s top pandemic boomtowns, which experienced significant home price growth during the pandemic housing boom, which stretched housing affordability far beyond local income levels. Once offices reopened and mortgage rates spiked, pandemic-fueled migration quickly slowed in many parts of Texas and Florida.
Once that happened, markets like Punta Gorda, Florida and Austin, Texas faced challenges as they had to rely more on local incomes to sustain strained home prices.
On a positive, those folks domestically migrating from the Upper Midwest and the Northeast to the South and West appear to have some ability to negotiate in the purchase of homes, the Sellers markets continue in the West and South, but not anywhere near the Sellers market it was just 30 months ago.
I don't concur that reponing of offices are part of the reason for the domestic migration slowdown. Homes in the South and West are still selling at or near record highs, and with 30-year mortgages at their highest level in four years, it makes it very tough to sell a home in the Upper Midwest or Northeast and afford a home in the South or West.
From Chuck Cowan:
While Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida continue to see positive net migration, it’s far less domestic migration than during the Pandemic Housing Boom.
Florida net domestic migration, by year:
2019 -> +133K
2020 -> +63K
2021 -> +247K
2022 -> +314K
2023 -> +185K
2024 -> +64K
Migration shifts—and changes in the pace of migration—matter for the housing market, as they can shift the local supply-demand equilibrium.
Many of the softest housing markets, where homebuyers have gained leverage, are located in Sun Belt regions of the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. These areas were home to many of the nation’s top pandemic boomtowns, which experienced significant home price growth during the pandemic housing boom, which stretched housing affordability far beyond local income levels. Once offices reopened and mortgage rates spiked, pandemic-fueled migration quickly slowed in many parts of Texas and Florida.
Once that happened, markets like Punta Gorda, Florida and Austin, Texas faced challenges as they had to rely more on local incomes to sustain strained home prices.
) - "Checks with chart." Means we are exactly where we're expected to be and depth is correct.
