For those looking to move to Florida, inventory chart on Florida's largest housing markets

SC Maintenance said:
Were obviously speculating, but if 10 years ago a boomer retired in in say Boston to move to Florida, there job opened up for another person to take, and hence buy a home.

Now lets say that same person is living in the Villages and passes away. They left no job. There are no jobs in the villages You need a retiree to buy that home. Except there are not enough younger people to retire, and those that are that age as a group have far less money. Presumably the boomers will leave their money to the millenials. Are a bunch of millennial children going to move to the Villages and retire at 50?

This is from 2020 - last census - so add 4 years. The biggest Boomer group is now 59 to 64. They haven't even retired yet. So this story you mention has yet to play out. You can see a related affect already - the serious shortage of skilled labor is a direct reflection of retiring boomers with too few people below them. Its not the only reason, but its the over-riding reason.

Now look at the smallest group for a while - which will be 49 - 54 as of today. When this group is ready to retire in lets say 15 years - the biggest group above will be at that phase that they will be needing to pass their house along. But there won't be enough of them - just like there are not enough of us to take there jobs today.

I don't believe this story has played out anywhere yet. Its just getting started. Its always possible it gets thwarted - more immigration, longer life expectancy, etc. But it will take something outside the usual to stop it.



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Good information. All I know is areas like Green Valley, AZ which has been a retirement MECCA south of Tucson for ages, is slowly getting significantly younger homeowners, as these younger homeowners have been priced out of the near Tucson market.
 
GON said:
Good information. All I know is areas like Green Valley, AZ which has been a retirement MECCA south of Tucson for ages, is slowly getting significantly younger homeowners, as these younger homeowners have been priced out of the near Tucson market.
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Thank you for the articles. I will read them later.

In regards to Tucson - it is a burgeoning tech / aerospace hub correct? So are these people moving to Green Valley to commute to Tucson, or are they working in Green Valley.

I live near Charleston SC. Lots of retirees coming here including my neighborhood, but also lots of young people because of growing Aero / defense / software and manufacturing industries. I doubt housing here falls, or if it does comparatively it will be smaller than places like Ocala or the panhandle which have no traditional business base.
 
SC Maintenance said:
Were obviously speculating, but if 10 years ago a boomer retired in in say Boston to move to Florida, there job opened up for another person to take, and hence buy a home.

Now lets say that same person is living in the Villages and passes away. They left no job. There are no jobs in the villages You need a retiree to buy that home. Except there are not enough younger people to retire, and those that are that age as a group have far less money. Presumably the boomers will leave their money to the millenials. Are a bunch of millennial children going to move to the Villages and retire at 50?

This is from 2020 - last census - so add 4 years. The biggest Boomer group is now 59 to 64. They haven't even retired yet. So this story you mention has yet to play out. You can see a related affect already - the serious shortage of skilled labor is a direct reflection of retiring boomers with too few people below them. Its not the only reason, but its the over-riding reason.

Now look at the smallest group for a while - which will be 49 - 54 as of today. When this group is ready to retire in lets say 15 years - the biggest group above will be at that phase that they will be needing to pass their house along. But there won't be enough soon to be retired buyers - just like there are not enough of us to take there jobs today.

I don't believe this story has played out anywhere yet. Its just getting started. Its always possible it gets thwarted - more immigration, longer life expectancy, etc. But it will take something outside the usual to stop it.
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You ask some good questions and bring up good topics.

1. The Villages have been existing for a long time. It's not failed yet. In fact, it's grown well beyond what the founder/developer ever dreamed up. I watched a documentary on it a month or so ago.

2. The Villages isn't a one-off. There's 100+ of these types of communities in FL. None as large, but they are everywhere. Everywhere. They are growing.

3. I wonder what the percentage of paid-off housing is for people 60+ in FL. Why? Because a 55 year old inheriting a paid-off house in FL will possibly do one of four things - keep it and use it for vacations; sell it and pocket the money, not locating or visiting FL; keep it and re-locate themselves to FL in it; rent/lease it in some form or fashion.

People can gripe all they want about the "less-than-ideal" weather that occurs in FL during most of the year. The FACTS say not many really care. Florida's population has exploded over the last 40 years, Florida's tourism has become a pie-in-the-sky achievement over the last 20 years and there's no slowing down either as far as I can see.

In fact, this afternoon, I'll begin packing our large SUV up with half of what we own to head down there Saturday morning. There will be cars 3-4 lanes wide, door-to-door, bumper-to-bumper with me on I-75 about the Ocala area (after 12:00 Noon), all the way to Fruitville Road where we will exit. The return trip will be similar, packed starting about the GA line headed towards Macon and Atlanta... while the southbound side will mirror it..... this cycle repeats itself for about 30 weeks a year or more.
 
JohnnyG said:
Just read an article the other day that said in central Florida, a lot of recently built, single family homes are not selling. Likely due to the increased mortgage rates.
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Fixed:
Just read an article the other day that said in central Florida, a lot of recently built, single family homes are not selling. Likely due to the bloated pricing.
 
Hillbilly Deluxe said:
You ask some good questions and bring up good topics.

1. The Villages have been existing for a long time. It's not failed yet. In fact, it's grown well beyond what the founder/developer ever dreamed up. I watched a documentary on it a month or so ago.

2. The Villages isn't a one-off. There's 100+ of these types of communities in FL. None as large, but they are everywhere. Everywhere. They are growing.

3. I wonder what the percentage of paid-off housing is for people 60+ in FL. Why? Because a 55 year old inheriting a paid-off house in FL will possibly do one of four things - keep it and use it for vacations; sell it and pocket the money, not locating or visiting FL; keep it and re-locate themselves to FL in it; rent/lease it in some form or fashion.

People can gripe all they want about the "less-than-ideal" weather that occurs in FL during most of the year. The FACTS say not many really care. Florida's population has exploded over the last 40 years, Florida's tourism has become a pie-in-the-sky achievement over the last 20 years and there's no slowing down either as far as I can see.

In fact, this afternoon, I'll begin packing our large SUV up with half of what we own to head down there Saturday morning. There will be cars 3-4 lanes wide, door-to-door, bumper-to-bumper with me on I-75 about the Ocala area (after 12:00 Noon), all the way to Fruitville Road where we will exit. The return trip will be similar, packed starting about the GA line headed towards Macon and Atlanta... while the southbound side will mirror it..... this cycle repeats itself for about 30 weeks a year or more.
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Yes, but look at my chart again. The number of retirees has been icreasing for a couple decades and will increase even more for the next 5 years. Then it will start to decline again. In 15 years, the number will be significantly less retirees each year than it is now.

What happens when the number of retirees is significantly less than the number of people needing to move out of the Villages and the 1000 other places like it?
 
The Villages is different cause they have dedicated paved ‘roads’ just for golf carts.

You go to Publix and you see 80 golf carts. You don’t see that in other retirement communities in FL.
 
zzyzzx said:
Fixed:
Just read an article the other day that said in central Florida, a lot of recently built, single family homes are not selling. Likely due to the bloated pricing.
Click to expand...
Ya. Yesterday I was looking at a newly built home in Orlando. It was in a PUD about 10 Ft from the units on either side. A shoebox of around 3k sq ft with no real front to look at other than a two-car garage door with the front door on the right.

Appraised and sold for $1M to a couple out of New England who bought it as a second home.
 
BMWTurboDzl said:
Ya. Yesterday I was looking at a newly built home in Orlando. It was in a PUD about 10 Ft from the units on either side. A shoebox of around 3k sq ft with no real front to look at other than a two-car garage door with the front door on the right.

Appraised and sold for $1M to a couple out of New England who bought it as a second home.
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So it's like Alpharetta, Roswell and East Cobb.... :D
 
SC Maintenance said:
Yes, but look at my chart again. The number of retirees has been icreasing for a couple decades and will increase even more for the next 5 years. Then it will start to decline again. In 15 years, the number will be significantly less retirees each year than it is now.

What happens when the number of retirees is significantly less than the number of people needing to move out of the Villages and the 1000 other places like it?
Click to expand...

Something will evolve and prices will match the market. Who knows? Areas of the Villages might be re-assigned to "40 and up with kids" to allow the people who are employed in a service/business that primarily serves residents of the Villages a closer place to live.

Real Estate evolves like everything else. At some point, if the community lets the houses decline, lets the surrounding shopping/services decline, people move away that are able. They move to areas that are vibrant, either new or re-developed.
 
Dave Hess said:
The Villages is different cause they have dedicated paved ‘roads’ just for golf carts.

You go to Publix and you see 80 golf carts. You don’t see that in other retirement communities in FL.
Click to expand...
I live in an area of GA where one city has 100+ miles of "multi-use" paths.... primarily used by golf carts. There won't be 80 golf carts at Publix, but there might be 20 at one time, when there's 22 passenger vehicles.

GA has also recently passed a law allowing ICE-powered UTVs/etc to be tagged and drive on roads 45 MPH and under. Golf carts do not meet this new requirement, as the vehicle must be able to do 35 MPH, IIRC, but UTVs/SxS are the primary target. This would allow someone like me, who lives in an unincorporated area and has 45 MPH road between me and "town", to have a SxS, tag it, insure it and drive it like a golf cart. I can't remember if the SxS vehicles are allowed on cart (multi-use) paths around here...
 
I suspect that the outlook for expensive retirement homes along with that for McMansions is negative over the next fifteen to twenty years.
As others have pointed out, following generations are smaller in number and earning potential in real terms may be lower as well.
Additionally, a larger house costs more to run in terms of electricity consumed as well as maintenance and insurance and none of those expenses are falling or will do anything other than rise.
In the case of Florida, the desirable areas are limited to the coasts and the habitable areas of the state may simply be becoming too crowded to be as attractive as they once were.
The last time we drove to South Florida was nearly twenty years ago and traffic was horrendous even then. Can't imagine what it's like now.
 
Hillbilly Deluxe said:
You ask some good questions and bring up good topics.

1. The Villages have been existing for a long time. It's not failed yet. In fact, it's grown well beyond what the founder/developer ever dreamed up. I watched a documentary on it a month or so ago.

2. The Villages isn't a one-off. There's 100+ of these types of communities in FL. None as large, but they are everywhere. Everywhere. They are growing.

3. I wonder what the percentage of paid-off housing is for people 60+ in FL. Why? Because a 55 year old inheriting a paid-off house in FL will possibly do one of four things - keep it and use it for vacations; sell it and pocket the money, not locating or visiting FL; keep it and re-locate themselves to FL in it; rent/lease it in some form or fashion.

People can gripe all they want about the "less-than-ideal" weather that occurs in FL during most of the year. The FACTS say not many really care. Florida's population has exploded over the last 40 years, Florida's tourism has become a pie-in-the-sky achievement over the last 20 years and there's no slowing down either as far as I can see.

In fact, this afternoon, I'll begin packing our large SUV up with half of what we own to head down there Saturday morning. There will be cars 3-4 lanes wide, door-to-door, bumper-to-bumper with me on I-75 about the Ocala area (after 12:00 Noon), all the way to Fruitville Road where we will exit. The return trip will be similar, packed starting about the GA line headed towards Macon and Atlanta... while the southbound side will mirror it..... this cycle repeats itself for about 30 weeks a year or more.
Click to expand...
I read The Villages has the highest amount of sexual assault of any similar community or Florida town.

And the full name is Christian Advent Villages.
 
Donald said:
I read The Villages has the highest amount of sexual assault of any similar community or Florida town.

And the full name is Christian Advent Villages.
Click to expand...
Every place has its flees I suppose. I have only been once. I have really no clue why a bunch of seniors would want to all live together. I am retiring to a college town.
 
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