For those looking to move to Florida, inventory chart on Florida's largest housing markets

[GON]

Lots of comments on BITOG on moving to Florida. Here is a recent chart that displays inventory trends in the numerous Florida markets. Although inventory levels are rising pre-pandemic in some markets, prices are still on an upward trajectory.

On a personal thought, I suspect the rise in inventory is centered on "undesirable homes", that were selling for top dollar three years ago, are no longer moving. The Sellers of the undesirable homes still are demanding top dollar, that is why these homes ae in inventory. Good homes I suspect throughout Florida likely contract withing 24-48 hours after being listed.

12 of Florida's 28 major housing markets have exceeded pre-pandemic inventory levels.
Tampa, Cape Coral, North Port, Orlando, Homosassa Springs, and Port St. Lucie are also close to doing so.

 

[Brons2]

Are you from the PNW originally? I'm a western Oregon native.

I could never do Florida. It would be my wife's dream but I am not open to it. Really not open to any truly tropical destination period. I'm already too far south, and I miss the mountains. Maybe would consider eastern Tennessee, if we left Texas.

 

[thastinger]

Are you from the PNW originally? I'm a western Oregon native.

I could never do Florida. It would be my wife's dream but I am not open to it. Really not open to any truly tropical destination period. I'm already too far south, and I miss the mountains. Maybe would consider eastern Tennessee, if we left Texas.

The panhandle of Fl. is not tropical.

 

[Brons2]

The panhandle of Fl. is not tropical.

I have been to the panhandle of Florida multiple times. Tropical enough.

I am from the wet side of Oregon, therefore "cool and rainy 9 months of the year" and "with mountains".

Florida is out, period. I want a more temperate climate, and geograhical relifef. If you guys love FL, then more power to you. For me it's a no.

 

[GON]

Are you from the PNW originally? I'm a western Oregon native.

I could never do Florida. It would be my wife's dream but I am not open to it. Really not open to any truly tropical destination period. I'm already too far south, and I miss the mountains. Maybe would consider eastern Tennessee, if we left Texas.

No, I have lived all over the US. I lived in South Florida when I was 17 years old. At that time, one could buy a new construction 3 bedroom/ 2 bath starter home (no garage) on 1.25 acres and a pond in Royal Palm Bech Florida for $54k USD. Not great construction, but just a price point to ponder for a 1.25 acre starter home in Palm Beach County.

Tomorrow I will interview for a job on Texas's tropical highway, about four +/- south of Austin. The tropical highway area of Texas shares some climate similarities with South Florida.

 

[GON]

LOL I have been to the panhandle of Florida multiple times. Tropical enough. What part of "I am from the wet side of Oregon, therefore cool and rainy year round" and "with mountains" is so difficult to understand?

Florida is out, period. I want a more temperate climate, and geograhical relifef. If you guys love it, fine, whatever. Next?

Visited the countryside of Western Oregon, it is beautiful. Much of it is breathtaking.

 

[loneryder]

In the panhandle, Sainta Rosa, Alys beach area, million $ plus homes are sitting on the market. Most are new construction within a couple miles to the beach. Whole neighborhoods are either empty or have 2 or 3 residents. They are not building anything under a million$. It appears they have overbuilt but it’s still going on. The locals tell me they are mostly purchased with cash.

 

[JohnnyG]

Just read an article the other day that said in central Florida, a lot of recently built, single family homes are not selling. Likely due to the increased mortgage rates.
They are now prime targets for renters however. Not sure what the monthly rate would be, but a single bedroom apartment near Daytona Beach is over $2000.00 a month, includes some utilities, but fees are additional.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Are you from the PNW originally? I'm a western Oregon native.

I could never do Florida. It would be my wife's dream but I am not open to it. Really not open to any truly tropical destination period. I'm already too far south, and I miss the mountains. Maybe would consider eastern Tennessee, if we left Texas.

The southern Appalachians is essentially a temperate rainforest.

 

[reemoeMO]

Wow, Punta Gorda takes the cake! 108% 1-year change--more than 3x the national average (and a 604% three-year change).

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

Those are some insane growth numbers. FL might be the next CA with regard to population.

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

The panhandle of Fl. is not tropical.

It is in July/August/September!

 

[andrewg]

I have been to the panhandle of Florida multiple times. Tropical enough.

I am from the wet side of Oregon, therefore "cool and rainy 9 months of the year" and "with mountains".

Florida is out, period. I want a more temperate climate, and geograhical relifef. If you guys love FL, then more power to you. For me it's a no.

Florida would be a no for me as well. While I like the political climate....the weather climate during the summer would do me in. Too much humidity. Can't say I'd like to be around alligators either. I've lived the vast majority of my life in the PNW (wet side). I do get tired of long wet winters with gray skies though.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Those are some insane growth numbers. FL might be the next CA with regard to population.

This would be my fear. I loved Florida and wanted to live there 20 years ago - there were still some old Florida places. There all gone now.

Too many people, too little infrastructure. For now they seem very well run, but what happens to all those places in 10 years when the baby boomers either need to go to assisted living or pass along, and my generation is way smaller and way poorer and won't be buying places in Florida. Of course if your already in that demographic who cares - will be the next generations problem.

 

[SC Maintenance]

What exactly is this telling me? Is it telling me that there are in clewiston, FL 134% more active listings than 5 years ago, 117% more active listings than 4 years ago, and so on?

 

[GON]

This would be my fear. I loved Florida and wanted to live there 20 years ago - there were still some old Florida places. There all gone now.

Too many people, too little infrastructure. For now they seem very well run, but what happens to all those places in 10 years when the baby boomers either need to go to assisted living or pass along, and my generation is way smaller and way poorer and won't be buying places in Florida. Of course if your already in that demographic who cares - will be the next generations problem.

SCM,

You bring up a great concern: "what happens to all those places in 10 years when the baby boomers either need to go to assisted living or pass along, and my generation is way smaller and way poorer and won't be buying places in Florida".

Over the past 20 years, I have read numerous articles reference the coming collapse of single-family home prices in areas filled with retired baby boomers. As of this time, none of it has happened, actually the opposite has happened. The baby boomer retirement homes continue to increase in value, as baby boomers pass, their affordable homes are often purchased by significantly younger buyers. The younger buyers apparently don't have a concern living in a baby boomer retirement area.

I was kind of monitoring the predicated collapse of single-family homes in baby boomer retirement areas. Not a sign I have seen indicating it has, is, or will happen.

I am searching for the old articles about this, haven't found them yet, here is a current article:

Baby boomers aren’t going to crash the housing market—they’re powering it

Fears of a “silver tsunami” are overblown, John Burns Research and Consulting’s VP of demographics tells Fortune.

fortune.com

https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/will-the-silver-tsunami-change-the-housing-market

 

[Dave Hess]

Florida would be a no for me as well. While I like the political climate....the weather climate during the summer would do me in. Too much humidity. Can't say I'd like to be around alligators either. I've lived the vast majority of my life in the PNW (wet side). I do get tired of long wet winters with gray skies though.

Florida is a bad choice in 2024….. maybe 10 years ago.

Later this year we will visit PNW and look forward to the 180 degree opposite change of everything.

 

[GON]

SCM,

You bring up a great concern: "what happens to all those places in 10 years when the baby boomers either need to go to assisted living or pass along, and my generation is way smaller and way poorer and won't be buying places in Florida".

Over the past 20 years, I have read numerous articles reference the coming collapse of single-family home prices in areas filled with retired baby boomers. As of this time, none of it has happened, actually the opposite has happened. The baby boomer retirement homes continue to increase in value, as baby boomers pass, their affordable homes are often purchased by significantly younger buyers. The younger buyers apparently don't have a concern living in a baby boomer retirement area.

I was kind of monitoring the predicated collapse of single-family homes in baby boomer retirement areas. Not a sign I have seen indicating it has, is, or will happen.

I am searching for the old articles about this, haven't found them yet, here is a current article:

Baby boomers aren’t going to crash the housing market—they’re powering it

Fears of a “silver tsunami” are overblown, John Burns Research and Consulting’s VP of demographics tells Fortune.

fortune.com

https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/will-the-silver-tsunami-change-the-housing-market

Here is an article from

Regional Science and Urban Economics​

Volume 19, Issue 2, May 1989, Pages 235-258

This paper examines the impact of major demographic changes on the housing market in the United States. The entry of the Baby Boom generation into its house-buying years is found to be the major cause of the increase in real housing prices in the 1970s. Since the Baby Bust generation is now entering its house-buying years, housing demand will grow more slowly in the 1990s than in any time in the past forty years. If the historical relation between housing demand and housing prices continues into the future, real housing prices will fall substantially over the next two decades.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0166046289900057

 

[GON]

A current (2024) research paper on the baby boomer impact on future home prices. States published SEP 2024, which caused me to take a double take. Either a date error, or they publish the magazine very early.

Effect of ageing on housing prices: A perspective from an overlapping generation model​

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1090944324000243

 

[SC Maintenance]

SCM,

You bring up a great concern: "what happens to all those places in 10 years when the baby boomers either need to go to assisted living or pass along, and my generation is way smaller and way poorer and won't be buying places in Florida".

Over the past 20 years, I have read numerous articles reference the coming collapse of single-family home prices in areas filled with retired baby boomers. As of this time, none of it has happened, actually the opposite has happened. The baby boomer retirement homes continue to increase in value, as baby boomers pass, their affordable homes are often purchased by significantly younger buyers. The younger buyers apparently don't have a concern living in a baby boomer retirement area.

I was kind of monitoring the predicated collapse of single-family homes in baby boomer retirement areas. Not a sign I have seen indicating it has, is, or will happen.

I am searching for the old articles about this, haven't found them yet, here is a current article:

Baby boomers aren’t going to crash the housing market—they’re powering it

Fears of a “silver tsunami” are overblown, John Burns Research and Consulting’s VP of demographics tells Fortune.

fortune.com

https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/will-the-silver-tsunami-change-the-housing-market

Were obviously speculating, but if 10 years ago a boomer retired in in say Boston to move to Florida, there job opened up for another person to take, and hence buy a home.

Now lets say that same person is living in the Villages and passes away. They left no job. There are no jobs in the villages You need a retiree to buy that home. Except there are not enough younger people to retire, and those that are that age as a group have far less money. Presumably the boomers will leave their money to the millenials. Are a bunch of millennial children going to move to the Villages and retire at 50?

This is from 2020 - last census - so add 4 years. The biggest Boomer group is now 59 to 64. They haven't even retired yet. So this story you mention has yet to play out. You can see a related affect already - the serious shortage of skilled labor is a direct reflection of retiring boomers with too few people below them. Its not the only reason, but its the over-riding reason.

Now look at the smallest group for a while - which will be 49 - 54 as of today. When this group is ready to retire in lets say 15 years - the biggest group above will be at that phase that they will be needing to pass their house along. But there won't be enough soon to be retired buyers - just like there are not enough of us to take there jobs today.

I don't believe this story has played out anywhere yet. Its just getting started. Its always possible it gets thwarted - more immigration, longer life expectancy, etc. But it will take something outside the usual to stop it.