Let me put it this way. If your car is nearing 10 year mark and still NOT throwing P0420/P0430 on original catalytic converter, you are an exception. The most common code if you google would be P0420. I have printed lot of research material from EPA, Ohio State, Colorado State, Illinois State etc and once again the most common emission failure codes are the above.
The reason is pretty simple. Most ECU start flagging the converter efficiency once it drops below 90% (or something like that). The actual increase in the emission when ECU flags the catalytic converter efficiency code is quite small and nowhere near the FTP limit. In the past, many state had ability to do actual sniffer testing if the car had MIL on. If the MIL was for catalytic converter, most cars would pass the sniffer testing with flying colors. These days, if the MIL is on and/or your I/M readiness is incomplete, you automatically fail the test until you fix the car and retest it. Ironically, the passing requirement on a re-test is lot stringent. For example, for initial I/M on a 2000 and earlier vehicle, most states allow *any* 2 incomplete monitor, however, for a retest, the CAT monitor needs to be completed.
Don't ask me how I know all this :-(
- Vikas