What Factors Are Swaying EV Adoption in the U.S.?

[PandaBear]

Would you use a one inch socket on a bolt that requires a half inch socket.

The assumption is: would you ONLY have 1 socket in your toolbox and you have to make sure it works even for 1 inch. This is the assumption a lot of anti-EV or anti-hybrid folks made early on. The counter argument is if you can afford multiple sockets in a tool box shared among family members, do you need all of the sockets to be 1 inch? or do you want 1", 1/2", 3/8", and 1/4"? Do you prefer a family tool box with multiple sockets or do you prefer to have your own 1" socket in your pocket, not shared with other family members?

 

[PandaBear]

These are "wealthy" people cars at the moment...meaning that you have a house, with a garage (probably climate controlled, semi-so anyway) and you have a 400A electrical service to your house.
Around here, for any new housing development to be approved by the "urban planning commissions" it has to be mixed use...meaning that 80% of the housing would not meet the required criteria, no place to charge your status symbol.

I think we would be better served by reviewing Newton's second law...maybe we would have a more profound impact if we didn't use a 4K Lb vehicle to transport a 120-220Lb person.

A few years ago they were "middle class" vehicle for those who need carpool lane access + free charging at work. I mean our technicians at work making middle class wages were leasing the VW eGolf for $150 / month, it is not "wealthy" for sure. It is cheaper to buy an EV than living near work at ridiculous high housing cost.

Today in our area, we no longer get free carpool lane access, we also don't always guarantee to get free charging at work, so the Nissan Leaf demand dries up, and Tesla remains as that becomes a "cooler" upper middle class options than BMW and Mercedes. Maybe some boomers are still buying Porsche here and there (no Corvette or Mustang here), but most of the GenX mid life crisis guys are buying Tesla these days here.

 

[KJH]

Would you use a one inch socket on a bolt that requires a half inch socket.

Unless I am misunderstanding what is being implied, not sure your comparison makes sense. The core advantage of BEV over ICE is higher efficiency and thus lower cost, it has nothing to do with capability. A one inch socket is not physically capable of turning a half inch bolt. An ICE vehicle is capable of doing anything an EV does, it just does it while using more energy(and thus dollars) per mile. On the flip side a EV cannot do many of the things an ICEV can do.

 

[celicaxx]

This IMO depends on who build it. Tesla and Leaf are going to be bad for 15 years, but if Toyota build it like a Prius then it will still be worth quite a bit, and have reliable reman batteries with new cells after 15 years.

I would say so, too. Even with the Prius battery thing, many people find the cost of multiple rebuilt automatic transmissions an acceptable cost, and that averages out at about $2-3K in most circumstances, which is about the same as Prius batteries.

 

[y_p_w]

They are throw away cars at the moment. At the end of 7 or 8 years when you need a new battery pack, it'll cost more than the car is worth. Kind of a shame too as it takes 7 years for an EV to actually start making a positive carbon contribution...provided you believe in that stuff.

Not really. Tesla seems to think that a Model 3 battery repair cost (with new cells) will be less than $7000 by the time most owners are ready to replace. On top of that, in most states it's considered a pollution control component where a long warranty (10 years in my state) is required.

But the big thing is that it's not spewing stuff into the air when initially driven. I can smell the exhaust for a while, but that electric vehicle isn't putting out anything into the air and into my neighborhood.

 

[Cujet]

I would say so, too. Even with the Prius battery thing, many people find the cost of multiple rebuilt automatic transmissions an acceptable cost, and that averages out at about $2-3K in most circumstances, which is about the same as Prius batteries.

Prius batteries are 1.8kwh capacity. A far cry from the 80 to 100KWH in a Tesla. My mother paid $4500 for a replacement in her 2008. I simply told her that $4500 purchases a LOT of gas.

 

[JeffKeryk]

After my Mid Range battery can no longer service our car, maybe it will power our house? That would be cool.
But I hope to have a Model 3 Performance before that. Who the heck knows?

The guy across the street traded in a high-end Benz Sports Car (loud!) for a blue Model Y. He just drove up an hour ago.
So across the street are Model Y, a Bolt, next door there is a Bolt (their 3rd EV), our Model 3 and on the other side another Model 3.

I hope the crappy CA PG&E power grid can handle it!

 

[IcarusLSC]

Nothing is swaying me to switch. Bad charging infrastructure, bad quality vehicles, etc etc... I'll wait...

 

[KJH]

Nothing is swaying me to switch. Bad charging infrastructure, bad quality vehicles, etc etc... I'll wait...

Thats the thing, EV is great for pure commuting, but my ICE is fine too and can do more in a pinch. There isnt a compelling reason to switch for most people besides a G or two in fuel savings, which considering for many buying a brand new car is not really on option monetarily, doesnt even matter.

 

[y_p_w]

After my Mid Range battery can no longer service our car, maybe it will power our house? That would be cool.
But I hope to have a Model 3 Performance before that. Who the heck knows?

Isn't the mid-range somewhat software limited? I understand that it includes fewer cells in the same chassis, but I thought it was also somewhat limited in range by a software lock. I heard of them enabling more range when there were emergencies such as hurricanes or other cases where people needed to evacuate. If it is, then it would probably put the charge range in the center, which should improve longevity.

 

[thastinger]

Not really. Tesla seems to think that a Model 3 battery repair cost (with new cells) will be less than $7000 by the time most owners are ready to replace. On top of that, in most states it's considered a pollution control component where a long warranty (10 years in my state) is required.

But the big thing is that it's not spewing stuff into the air when initially driven. I can smell the exhaust for a while, but that electric vehicle isn't putting out anything into the air and into my neighborhood.

Right, just export the pollution to someone/somewhere else since California imports 30% of its power.

 

[y_p_w]

Right, just export the pollution to someone/somewhere else since California imports 30% of its power.

Well - the other key is that industrial power generation is inherently more efficient than individual internal combustion engines that typically operate at less than peak thermal efficiency. But absolutely it's a key to why it's better. A gasoline powered car is going to be spewing quite a bit of unburned fuel for a few minutes while the engine warms up, compared to an industrial power plant running fairly clean natural gas that's running around the clock.

 

[Kiwi_ME]

... The core advantage of BEV over ICE is higher efficiency and thus lower cost, it has nothing to do with capability.

The core advantage is that fossil-based carbon emissions are limited to what it takes to generate, transport, convert and supply the energy to the car, nevermind manufacturing it. Without a high percentage of renewable electricity available you're still mostly at square one in the bigger picture.

 

[SammyChevelleTypeS3]

The last hydro dam in British Columbia is currently under construction. It slipped in just in time before the Woke culture was a able to cancel it. It’s over budget but was “ too far along” to cancel. For now there is an overabundance of power, but the government owned utility, BC Hydro is $40 B in debt. There will never be another dam built unless black-outs occur many years down the road.

By the way, BC, Alberta, Washington State, Oregon, California and Montana are all linked and sell power back and forth as required, although the people of BC think they are on almost 100% hydro, on any given day some of those electrons are coming from coal plants in Montana and vice versa.

Be careful. I think we are not even supposed to say the word "culture" in this day and age!

 

[KJH]

The core advantage is that fossil-based carbon emissions are limited to what it takes to generate, transport, convert and supply the energy to the car, nevermind manufacturing it. Without a high percentage of renewable electricity available you're still mostly at square one in the bigger picture.

Regardless his analogy doesn't make sense

 

[Danh]

No electric car can go 350miles at todays highway speeds. Regardless of cost. 220 is the real and practical highway limit. With enough cushion to reach a charger.

drove fast with a model 3 performance on the highway and he did not even make 180 miles. That’s reality.

Driving I-80 across Iowa and Nebraska Teslas are not uncommon. But they are typically in the right lane going 10-15 mph slower than other sedan traffic. Things will surely improve but right now for long distance travel this is hardly my idea of a luxury performance car.

 

[edyvw]

Driving I-80 across Iowa and Nebraska Teslas are not uncommon. But they are typically in the right lane going 10-15 mph slower than other sedan traffic. Things will surely improve but right now for long distance travel this is hardly my idea of a luxury performance car.

Up I70 there is always Tesla owner that gets pissed when you pass him. Then they pass you and after a mile you leave them behind and never see them again.

 

[PandaBear]

Prius batteries are 1.8kwh capacity. A far cry from the 80 to 100KWH in a Tesla. My mother paid $4500 for a replacement in her 2008. I simply told her that $4500 purchases a LOT of gas.

In California it is 900-1000 gallons. Somewhat 50mpg (5mpg discount from typical) means 4500 to 5000 miles. If she doesn't crush the car within about 30000 miles she probably will make her money back. If I were to buy another car because mine got into an accident it would definitely be a Prius or Prius Prime so I can sleep better about uncertainty of future gas price.

 

[PandaBear]

Right, just export the pollution to someone/somewhere else since California imports 30% of its power.

Everything in energy sector is about exporting pollution (and sometimes wars and casualties) and importing quality of life. There is no way around it.

However NIMBY is always in human nature so I am not sure if there is a way around that outside of energy (say education system, financial system, etc).

 

[Snagglefoot]

I drove past the two EV chargers at the Petrocan gas station on highway 1 west of Calgary yesterday. Petrocan allegedly has enough charge locations to take a typical EV across Canada on highway one. I always glance over to see what’s happening. As usual, no one was charging. Also, the temp was 5 F. The market penetration for long distance EV driving is still not there in Western Canada along the main east/west highway. Also, those chargers in Alberta are mostly supplied by power derived from coal and gas. Time will tell.