US Crosses the Electric-Car Tipping Point for Mass Adoption

[vetteryan]

Honestly who really cares? Doesn't mean it will be accepted by the masses, plain and simple! They can build all they want and take a serious loss when the crap doesn't sell... There really is no win/win with everybody and never will be.

Currently there are issues with cat converter theft with ICE... so guess that will give thieves a new outlet to strip wiring out of the EVs hitting the road... while they're at it might as well steal the battery setup too...

"A growing number of Americans are coming around to the idea of driving electric vehicles, with 71 percent expressing at least some degree of interest in buying or leasing EVs, according to a national survey released Thursday by Consumer Reports."

"Of more than 8,000 respondents, 14 percent said they would definitely buy or lease an EV and 22 percent said they would “seriously consider” one. Another 35 percent said they “might consider getting an electric-only vehicle in the future.”"

I guess the masses "accept" them already.

 

[Spyderman24_7]

"A growing number of Americans are coming around to the idea of driving electric vehicles, with 71 percent expressing at least some degree of interest in buying or leasing EVs, according to a national survey released Thursday by Consumer Reports."

I guess the masses "accept" them already.

And opinions certainly vary... and I'll be the first to laugh at CR garbage anyway. They will claim/print anything for publicity and it shows.

 

[PimTac]

"A growing number of Americans are coming around to the idea of driving electric vehicles, with 71 percent expressing at least some degree of interest in buying or leasing EVs, according to a national survey released Thursday by Consumer Reports."

"Of more than 8,000 respondents, 14 percent said they would definitely buy or lease an EV and 22 percent said they would “seriously consider” one. Another 35 percent said they “might consider getting an electric-only vehicle in the future.”"

I guess the masses "accept" them already.

I wonder if CR is counting hybrids in those numbers?

 

[IndyIan]

For lots of families with two vehicles, having an electric or plugin hybrid car in the fleet can make sense. I can count on one hand how many times in 20 years both our cars have gone 200+miles on the same day... For some people that happens every weekend, so maybe they better have a hybrid.
I think in the San Francisco area Tesla probably has over 25% of the market share alone, and in California as a whole has all forms of electric vehicles are at 28% of the market and probably next year will be a 1/3.
Does that mean that a family in Arizona 1 hour away from the nearest Walmart, should get a pair of electric cars? No, but in some areas and usage patterns they make sense.

 

[ZZman]

The wind also doesn't blow at night, sometimes for weeks at a time. Storage systems, particularly if we are talking batteries, aren't storing weeks of power. People really have no idea of the scale required to firm VRE with storage. The "big battery" in South Australia is almost exclusively used for FCAS, as it doesn't have the capacity to firm anything. For firming you need huge, long duration storage like a PHES project, and these are extremely expensive, difficult to permit, take years to get EA's done for, and permanently alter the landscape and nature.

I agree. But the more you use something the cheaper it becomes and the more innovation happens.

 

[ZZman]

Not after 1am. But the main point is, if you look at the duck curve, you pretty much can always see time that people don't use much electricity is at night when they are sleeping. Even if you use AC at night it will use way less than during day time energy consumption wise.

Most business consumption has been greatly reduced at night.

 

[OVERKILL]

I agree. But the more you use something the cheaper it becomes and the more innovation happens.

I mean, there really isn't more room for innovation with PHES, it's a huge civil engineering project, and, like anything of that scale, has massive amounts of red tape to deal with before construction can begin. There will also be local opposition, like we are getting for our PHES project here in Ontario, and that project is really only going to be good for peak shifting, it's not big enough to firm VRE.

Nobody has built much PHES lately (Snowy 2.0 in Australia is still "in the works"). Most of the existing stuff was constructed in the 70's and 80's, just like our nuke plants.

 

[ecotourist]

Many houses here in CO don't have A/C. I have seen some houses built a few years back without it. I stayed in a hotel in Breckenridge this weekend that does not have A/C.

My impression is that most houses on Vancouver Island don't have air conditioning. We can have cooling by running our heat pump backwards. We've had a heat pump for about 5 years and have used it for 5 or 6 days for cooling (including twice to check if it was working). It cools off very nicely here at night and it takes several hot days to really heat up the house which rarely happens.

We didn't have AC in our home in Saskatoon built in 1978, in our home in Winnipeg built about 1930, nor in our home in Edmonton built in 1998.

We stayed at a very nice hotel in Norway that had AC in the common rooms and hallways but not in the guest rooms. We were there during a (rare) hot spell and with its huge windows our room got quite uncomfortable.

AC isn't as universal as you might expect (though we sure could have used it in Winnipeg).

 

[ecotourist]

I wonder if CR is counting hybrids in those numbers?

Nope, electric only.

 

[edyvw]

My impression is that most houses on Vancouver Island don't have air conditioning. We can have cooling by running our heat pump backwards. We've had a heat pump for about 5 years and have used it for 5 or 6 days for cooling (including twice to check if it was working). It cools off very nicely here at night and it takes several hot days to really heat up the house which rarely happens.

We didn't have AC in our home in Saskatoon built in 1978, in our home in Winnipeg built about 1930, nor in our home in Edmonton built in 1998.

We stayed at a very nice hotel in Norway that had AC in the common rooms and hallways but not in the guest rooms. We were there during a (rare) hot spell and with its huge windows our room got quite uncomfortable.

AC isn't as universal as you might expect (though we sure could have used it in Winnipeg).

Ah, I don't expect. I did not have AC in a car until some 2005. In Europe at the of 90's A/C in Central Europe was rare in the cars. Sometimes around 2000 proliferation started.

 

[UncleDave]

Even if EVs are 99¢ for a new vehicle I would still choose a gas powered vehicle, I might be old fashioned, but I would rather stick with what works, I see no good in going all electric, it might just be my opinion, but I'm sure a lot of mechanics wouldn't be too happy if they learned their trade only to have to relearn how to work on electrical devices instead on engines.

There will be plenty of good old fashioned mechanical work needed.

Mechanics aren't going away and shouldn't feel threatened although they do.

Its true some things will need less attention, other things more - the weight of these wears out suspensions quickly.
They have coolant and radiators and pumps, modules that go bad, the rubber guys are going to stay really busy and anyone doing spirited driving will keep the brake guys busy.

 

[Braapdaddy]

As long as EV vehicles look like they are toys and the styling is pitiful ( just my opinion ) I would have to be forced to buy one

Being an electrical contractor ( residential &commercial) it's easy to realize the grids in most states are already taxed to the max .....look at California the wind blows and it burns down 1/4 of the state

I don't know the answer to the problem but I do know Americans want style and looks over worrying about the environment for christ sake we can't even recycle oil containers what makes the government think people will flock to EV unless they force us into it

They will have to come take my Super Duties and Hot rods as well as the Motocross bikes from my left hand with my bang bang in the other ....... rant complete

 

[JHZR2]

EVs work with less moving parts-90% less
Tesla vehicles have an average of just 17-18 pieces in their powertrain, compared to 200 in a standard ICE. Even if we are incredibly charitable and take this highly conservative estimate for the number of components within an internal-combustion powertrain, Tesla is still functioning with less than 10% of the parts that ordinary cars have. At the most optimistic estimate, it is barely 1% of the pieces.

This is just silly… there are thousands of cells in the battery pack. Plus wiring for cell monitoring, BMS, thermistors, contactors, fuses. You’re taking quite a liberty in merging the complexity of a battery into a few pieces.

And very little of any vehicle I’ve owned is the actual power train. It’s the ac, the suspension, interior bits, etc. All very similar from ice to ev…

"A growing number of Americans are coming around to the idea of driving electric vehicles, with 71 percent expressing at least some degree of interest in buying or leasing EVs, according to a national survey released Thursday by Consumer Reports."

"Of more than 8,000 respondents, 14 percent said they would definitely buy or lease an EV and 22 percent said they would “seriously consider” one. Another 35 percent said they “might consider getting an electric-only vehicle in the future.”"

I guess the masses "accept" them already.

it’s been said before that evs are sometimes a toy, and sometimes you need another vehicle. Most households have two vehicles. It’s very conceivable that one is an ev for close use, and another is a more utilitarian vehicle.

My commute varies from 8 miles to 140 miles occasionally. The 8 miles and all local trips could be easily handled by an ev or PHEV. Even the 140 with some planning/inconvenience. So an ev fits in a lot of peoples perspectives if the desire is there.

There will be plenty of good old fashioned mechanical work needed.

Mechanics aren't going away and shouldn't feel threatened although they do.

Its true some things will need less attention, other things more - the weight of these wears out suspensions quickly.
They have coolant and radiators and pumps, modules that go bad, the rubber guys are going to stay really busy and anyone doing spirited driving will keep the brake guys busy.

Agree 100%. The lowest maintenance bit really doesn’t extend very far. Given reliability and low maintenance of ICE, it really doesn’t go further than oil changes.

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

More fake cheerleading. 5% tipping point my derrière. How long did it take for gasoline to become widespread & ubiquitous? Plus the fact that gasoline wasn’t vampiring supply from another market (homes, businesses, manufacturing)?

Sure, EVs seem great right now with subsidized stickers & subsidized charging. As subsidies sunset, power companies jack up everyone’s rates everywhere to support this new infrastructure, the EV will become at least as expensive as a gas vehicle to own & operate, plus you’re going to be paying an EV tax to replace the road tax. It will be long after many of our lifetimes before this country’s grid will support 200 million EVs. Plus, people are completely ignoring the fact that it takes moving & processing a HALF-MILLION pounds of Earth to mine a single EV battery, and that used battery components are quite toxic to the environment. At least plants can grow on the two byproducts of the ICE…

As I was saying…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/o...ay-they-would-definitely-buy-electric-vehicle

 

[meep]

I look forward to owning one, one day. my Volvos had large gas tanks and yet got upper 20s mpg, which meant I didn’t stop for gas often. I enjoy the truck for the same reason... long time between fillups. I look forward to never putting gas in the electric - when always on the go, it cuts 1-2 errands per week.

but im in no rush. The house will require an expensive electric upgrade. my wife and I will likely be late adopters. Our gassers won’t be worth squat on trade, but hopefully they’ll be old enough to not be a loss.

i hear daily from EV owners that the full tank every day thing is very nice.

 

[JeffKeryk]

i hear daily from EV owners that the full tank every day thing is very nice.

Even better given Silicon Valley gas prices. Best yet is filling your EV tank using solar panels.

 

[Cujet]

If the grid can handle AC during day time, it can handle EV during mid-night to 6am.

My 5 ton ac draws 3800w. A water heater 4500w. Ev’s 9600, 11,000 to 16,000w.

 

[ripcord]

Personally, I'm not owning anything that the automaker can turn off remotely.

 

[CKN]

This is just silly… there are thousands of cells in the battery pack. Plus wiring for cell monitoring, BMS, thermistors, contactors, fuses. You’re taking quite a liberty in merging the complexity of a battery into a few pieces.

And very little of any vehicle I’ve owned is the actual power train. It’s the ac, the suspension, interior bits, etc. All very similar from ice to ev…

it’s been said before that evs are sometimes a toy, and sometimes you need another vehicle. Most households have two vehicles. It’s very conceivable that one is an ev for close use, and another is a more utilitarian vehicle.

My commute varies from 8 miles to 140 miles occasionally. The 8 miles and all local trips could be easily handled by an ev or PHEV. Even the 140 with some planning/inconvenience. So an ev fits in a lot of peoples perspectives if the desire is there.


Agree 100%. The lowest maintenance bit really doesn’t extend very far. Given reliability and low maintenance of ICE, it really doesn’t go further than oil changes.

Depends on how long you keep them. Chances are over 200,000 miles problems are going to creep up-big or small. And it's always at a convenient time when they do. Right?

 

[PandaBear]

My 5 ton ac draws 3800w. A water heater 4500w. Ev’s 9600, 11,000 to 16,000w.

You can limit your charging to as low as 110V 15A if you want to, or set it to any number your house can handle. You also don't need to charge from 20% to 80% every day just because your battery can. A bigger pack is not going to make you use more energy, but rather let you charge with more flexibility. The same commute on the same car will use the same kwh per mile if it weight the same, so it is the car and the commute distance that matters.