Toyota, why are you absent from the EV races?

[edyvw]

Question for you... In what way is Toyota the top automaker in the world? By sheer numbers, yes. But there are far more metrics to consider.
Toyota sells 8x, or more, the number of cars than Tesla, yet profits are relatively the same; some quarters Tesla makes more profit.
By valuation, Tesla is bigger than the next 5 companies combined. This is true after the huge 70% TSLA drop...
By growth, Tesla is growing at greater than 40% annually.
The Model Y, an expensive car, will likely sell more in number than the low cost, low margin Corolla (#1 for a looong time).
The Model Y is already #1 in the world by revenue.

Don't you think this has gotten the attention of Toyota, as well as every other car company?
I respectfully suggest this is worth a conversation, and I bet the legacy car companies agree.

Don't get me wrong; I love Toyotas, especially their hybrids which are the best. My daily is a (gas hog) GS350 F Sport. And no, our trusty Tundra is not for sale.

1. They started from 0. It is like Chinese GDP. In 2000 was double digit, now it is in line with other big economies.
2. Valuation is not indicative of future. There is a lot in valuation that is simple speculation.
3. Profit per model is also speculative. Why is that the case? Low investment into it and selling trend? Again, look Chinese GDP.

When I see how you write about Tesla, one company comes to mind, Enron.

 

[BLND1]

Agree, hybrids are great, especially in my neck of the woods where gas is stinkin expensive! People trying to make ends meet and have to shove $80 into their Odyssey.

Yes, lead by coastal majorities that implement strict gasoline reqs and gas taxes.

Now people outside of those areas pay incredibly high electricity bills in addition to insane gas prices. An EV purchase in the state really needs to have home solar to be feasible… yet more expenses for the interior.

How many folks in Ducor, reedley, or any of the countless Central Valley farm towns can afford that?

It’s just a place to drive through for the rest of the state - out of sight out of mind. Y’all certainly like their vegetables though.

No wonder the push for EV’s comes with zero qualms over lithium strip mining or Congo cobalt. Same reason San Francisco can drink free hetch hetchy water or LA drained the owens.

 

[JeffKeryk]

1. They started from 0. It is like Chinese GDP. In 2000 was double digit, now it is in line with other big economies.
2. Valuation is not indicative of future. There is a lot in valuation that is simple speculation.
3. Profit per model is also speculative. Why is that the case? Low investment into it and selling trend? Again, look Chinese GDP.

When I see how you write about Tesla, one company comes to mind, Enron.

This posts is all opinion and silly comparisons based on nothing. Never quantifiable numbers. If you read my post, which you replied to, everything is quantifiable numbers.
Other points are just hard to reconcile. Look at your #2 above. You are arguing against yourself.

Valid analysis needs the best, most accurate and detailed information avaiable. I attempt to include the most complete information available. You make stuff up. I could not operate that way.

 

[edyvw]

N

This posts is all opinion and silly comparisons based on nothing. Never quantifiable numbers. If you read my post, which you replied to, everything is quantifiable numbers.
Other points are just hard to reconcile. Look at your #2 above. You are arguing against yourself.

Valid analysis needs the best, most accurate and detailed information avaiable. I attempt to include the most complete information available. You make stuff up. I could not operate that way.

Numbers don’t run companies, people do.

 

[JeffKeryk]

N

Numbers don’t run companies, people do.

Guess again. Numbers run everything.

 

[OVERKILL]

Guess again. Numbers run everything.

So it was the tenacity of an Excel spreadsheet that got Tesla to where it is, or was it uncle Elon? I think that's the point Edy's making.

 

[JeffKeryk]

So it was the tenacity of an Excel spreadsheet that got Tesla to where it is, or was it uncle Elon? I think that's the point Edy's making.

The point I am making is, if you can't measure it, it ain't real.
When presented with numbers, Edy decides Tesla is Enron.

 

[OVERKILL]

The point I am making is, if you can't measure it, it ain't real.
When presented with numbers, Edy decides Tesla is Enron.

I get that, but I think he's got a point about people. If we look at what the numbers were, who else could have turned them into what they are now?

 

[JeffKeryk]

I get that, but I think he's got a point about people. If we look at what the numbers were, who else could have turned them into what they are now?

There is no doubt Tesla is Elon. Every market analyst will say the biggest risk to Tesla is the loss of their leader.

 

[edyvw]

The point I am making is, if you can't measure it, it ain't real.
When presented with numbers, Edy decides Tesla is Enron.

Numerous companies ran after one more dollar: ENron, Boeing, etc. stock market was more important than anything else until it wasn't.
But, who knows, secret plan...

 

[edyvw]

There is no doubt Tesla is Elon. Every market analyst will say the biggest risk to Tesla is the loss of their leader.

WHich is NOT how you position any agency, company, organization, country etc. It is leadership 101.

 

[DwightFrye]

There is no doubt Tesla is Elon. Every market analyst will say the biggest risk to Tesla is the loss of their leader.

I'm sure Elon is well aware of that. I highly suspect that Elon has been grooming a "Mini-Me" veritable clone of himself who will step seamlessly into the position when the time comes.

I think we will see a good preview of his strategy when someday quite soon a new CEO of Twitter is announced. It will be someone well educated in Elon's philosophy and vision for the company and someone that Elon trusts implicitly to carry out his plan while he gets back to running Tesla and Space-X.

 

[PandaBear]

You are comparing Tesla to other cars. Tesla is not trying to be like other cars. They do not do leather. They do not do a plethora or knobs or dials.
The screen allows for upgrades that manual controls do not.

It's real simple. If you want a traditional dash, leather interior, or whatever, don't shop a Tesla.
And don't expect Tesla to follow, you will be disappointed. I have said many times, these cars are not for everyone.
Will Tesla change course and find they were wrong? Perhaps. The Plaid steering wheel is an example.
Tesla is the leader and certainly a disrupter. The oversized ipad is an example, like it or not.

I tell you what... If you learned the capabilities of the oversized ipad, I bet you would be impressed.

Here is the thing: Tesla have enough production capacity for a segment of the market (expensive innovator, with big uncertainty and iffy parts availability and repairability, etc), they aren't THAT big volume wise, they are in terms of stock market cap.

However, if you use this metric to compare Tesla to say, Toyota, you will be in trouble. They make different products, to different market, for different price, with different risks.

Toyota will not go out of business with one flop, or if the EV trend flop. Toyota will be around building boring stuff 30 years from now, regardless of trend. Tesla is a startupish company, good for them, congrats to them, but they won't be able to scale to like Toyota yet. Toyota also will catch up over time like they catch up to other new tech when they mature and commoditized, they won't go out of business.

So it depends on what kind of business you want to be, and how you want to run it. I don't see Toyota being wrong.

 

[demarpaint]

When I see how you write about Tesla, one company comes to mind, Enron.

My thoughts exactly. I can think of several gang buster companies that no longer exist. I'm not saying that will happen to Tesla, but never say never. When I was younger I never thought Sears would go down the crapper. Several others come to mind as well.

Regarding Toyota, I wouldn't count them out, the game just started. Especially when you think of how long cars have been around.

 

[4WD]

Guess again. Numbers run everything.

Ben Franklin is my favorite number

 

[JeffKeryk]

Here is the thing: Tesla have enough production capacity for a segment of the market (expensive innovator, with big uncertainty and iffy parts availability and repairability, etc), they aren't THAT big volume wise, they are in terms of stock market cap.

However, if you use this metric to compare Tesla to say, Toyota, you will be in trouble. They make different products, to different market, for different price, with different risks.

Toyota will not go out of business with one flop, or if the EV trend flop. Toyota will be around building boring stuff 30 years from now, regardless of trend. Tesla is a startupish company, good for them, congrats to them, but they won't be able to scale to like Toyota yet. Toyota also will catch up over time like they catch up to other new tech when they mature and commoditized, they won't go out of business.

So it depends on what kind of business you want to be, and how you want to run it. I don't see Toyota being wrong.

I don't think anyone thinks Toyota is going away. FYI, I think the new Prius is genius.
You mention comany size, comparing Toyota and Tesla. Forget about market valuation for now. Toyota is a high volume low margin business and have struggled in 2022 YOY mainly due to pandemic related issues. Tesla sells few Model X and S, but sell the Model 3 and Y in huge numbers. High volume high margin. Tesla makes about the same profit as Toyota even though Toyota sells at least 8x the units.

Today, Lexus (Toyota) and Tesla compete in the lux segment. Who is gaining market share?
Going forward, if and when the "Model 2" ever sees the light of day, the Corolla Camry dominance will be challenged. Not to mention the Civic Accord business. Heck, the expensive Model Y will likely outsell the Corolla this year.
Tesla is no longer in startup mode; they are in rapid growth mode. More than 40% growth YOY as every other car company struggled.
Toyota is not wrong, in fact the recent changes indicate they are willing to adapt. From CEO Toyoda:
"To advance change at Toyota, I have reached the decision that it is best for me to support a new president while I become chairman."

 

[PandaBear]

I don't think anyone thinks Toyota is going away. FYI, I think the new Prius is genius.
You mention comany size, comparing Toyota and Tesla. Forget about market valuation for now. Toyota is a high volume low margin business and have struggled in 2022 YOY mainly due to pandemic related issues. Tesla sells few Model X and S, but sell the Model 3 and Y in huge numbers. High volume high margin. Tesla makes about the same profit as Toyota even though Toyota sells at least 8x the units.

Today, Lexus (Toyota) and Tesla compete in the lux segment. Who is gaining market share?
Going forward, if and when the "Model 2" ever sees the light of day, the Corolla Camry dominance will be challenged. Not to mention the Civic Accord business. Heck, the expensive Model Y will likely outsell the Corolla this year.
Tesla is no longer in startup mode; they are in rapid growth mode. More than 40% growth YOY as every other car company struggled.
Toyota is not wrong, in fact the recent changes indicate they are willing to adapt. From CEO Toyoda:
"To advance change at Toyota, I have reached the decision that it is best for me to support a new president while I become chairman."

As you said. TODAY Tesla is worth a lot and Tesla is having the advantage. Toyota is behind, but they were never the company on the bleeding edge but the boring bulk stable reliable market. They sell well and they are commodities.

Risk vs reward, you have to look in the LONG term. My neighbor sold his Tesla Model Y because of reliability (brake pedal sensor problem, can't really drive it safely and parts are in back order) and "comfort" reasons and went back to Lexus, so I guess whatever floats your boat? It is just Tesla being a "move fast and change things frequently" company, so your cars can't be compare to "old boring but every bug is known and addressed" company.

 

[wpod]

Was this thread about Toyota? 7 pages in I forgot what the heck was going on.

In all reality we all know Toyota is very methodical in their moves but unless they have some behind the scenes EV development happening I feel like they will be left in the dust. Their first efforts are very half baked.

Honda is in the same boat having to partner with GM for their first EV "efforts" in North America.

In a shocking turn it seems Nissan is one upping the more popular home team players with many more years experience with good homegrown BEV models. I'm sure the executives at HonYota had a lot of jokes back when the first Leaf came about.

Honda and Toyota started the hybrid back in the late 1990s early 2000s. I am sure they know what to do when they want to get it done.

 

[alarmguy]

Wasn't one of the American makers the top sellers in like the 60's-70's? Just because Toyota is a top seller now doesn't mean they will be in 5-10 years. They have two large legacies nipping at their heels (VWAG and Hyundai/Kia) that are moving quickly towards EV's and could overtake Toyota quite rapidly if the move to EV happens faster than Toyota expects.

I’m assuming that you know GM is the top seller of vehicles in the USA for 90 years except one.
So just because Toyota is top seller in the world doesn’t mean they will not be in 5 to 10 years.
No one know the future. I wish I did, I’d buy a vacation home in the tropics right now

 

[alarmguy]

There is no doubt Tesla is Elon. Every market analyst will say the biggest risk to Tesla is the loss of their leader.

WHich is NOT how you position any agency, company, organization, country etc. It is leadership 101.

Well said, many do not know that a properly run company does not depend on the CEO for its continued success. The company must be properly run by that CEO for this to happen.
CEOs come and go, Elon can be removed by Tesla's board at any point or for unseen circumstances be incapable of continuing at Tesla.
The success of any company relies on a proper structure in place led by the CEO for the company to survive without him or her.

Important to know, Elon does not own Tesla, he is an employee, CEO.