Theoretical calculation on what is the cheaper lower risk option

[PandaBear]

Say I have a Prius V with 105k miles now, 40mpg, 2014, and it is serving my family very well. In theory it should not have any major repair cost other than a possible head gasket between 130-190k miles (6-10k depends on whether it punch a hole through the block or just a leaky gasket), and a battery that cost $6k in about 6-10 years. I bought it for 22k+tax in 2015 new and currently it is worth probably 12k still.

If I sell it in 3 years at 14 years and 130k miles for 9k, I would likely have avoided the risk of both the battery and the head gasket. I however then have to buy another vehicle of similar size. This would likely be another new hybrid (EV likely would be too expensive for the amount of daily miles we drive to justify) from a reliable company (Toyota, Honda, Mazda) in my climate. Candidate would likely be something like CRV / Rav4 / Venza / Corolla hatch / etc: smaller than a minivan but larger than a "compact sedan" in the trunk / cargo area.

Would this make sense at all? or would taking the chance on the HG (6-10k) and plan for battery replacement (6k) and keep it till 250k makes more sense?

 

[fantastic]

Here's another option I'll provide for you. Run it till the vehicle is too expensive to repair (Battery Pack) then get into another new car. I know you're trying to get some value out of the car while you can. I think, especially buying a new vehicle, that it makes sense to run it till it quits. Keep running it but start planning on what you'd replace it with if you did. Though prices change & vehicles change over the years but good to have an idea. You're at that 10 year mark where a lot of buyers tend to get another new one. I think getting you're moneys worth out of it is driving it until it quits. Weather that be tomorrow or another 5-10 years from now you know you've invested into something that you got it's total use from. You can sell it but now you're paying for something up front (New vehicle). Only you can decide what is best for you though at the end of the day.

 

[atikovi]

A Prius only gets 40 mpg? And it would make no sense to spend $6000 to $10,000 for a repair on a then 15 to 20 year old car.

 

[slacktide_bitog]

There are head gasket sealers that work well and can save you from an expensive/difficult job, especially if you catch it early. Bars Leaks HG-1 and Blue Devil Pour-N-Go are two good ones.

Also, Toyotas rarely have problems with the hybrid battery pack.

You won't get something else as good as a Prius V because Toyota discontinued it in order to protect the Rav4 Prime. But you can see if any good plugin hybrids come on the market within the 3 years you're considering. The only reason to buy another car is if you want to upgrade to a plugin hybrid.

 

[qjohn]

I thought for that generation of Prius the head gasket failure can be prevented by cleaning the EGR system. If so, consider to clean the EGR periodically and keep driving it.

 

[CarLuver]

i would run the prius till it dies. that head gasket guy on youtube says taxis in SF use priuses and get 500k out of them . i think your estimates on repair cost are little high also.

 

[PandaBear]

A Prius only gets 40 mpg? And it would make no sense to spend $6000 to $10,000 for a repair on a then 15 to 20 year old car.

Prius V, it is almost the size of a Rav4 internally.

 

[PandaBear]

I thought for that generation of Prius the head gasket failure can be prevented by cleaning the EGR system. If so, consider to clean the EGR periodically and keep driving it.

Maybe, Critics cleaned his and it still blew the HG. I'll definitely clean it but it is still a luck of draw.

 

[vavavroom]

Say I have a Prius V with 105k miles now, 40mpg, 2014,

Is this hypothetical or do you have such a Prius?

and it is serving my family very well. In theory it should not have any major repair cost other than a possible head gasket between 130-190k miles (6-10k depends on whether it punch a hole through the block or just a leaky gasket), and a battery that cost $6k in about 6-10 years. I bought it for 22k+tax in 2015 new and currently it is worth probably 12k still.

That's all hypothetical. A friend of mine has 2015 Prius and it's rusted out. Holes in the roof above the windshield, doors shed rust when you close them, a hatch hinge broke off due to rust.

If I sell it in 3 years at 14 years and 130k miles for 9k

Take the money and run.

I would likely have avoided the risk of both the battery and the head gasket.

You might get hit by an 18-wheeler, though. Do Priuses tend to blow head gaskets? I don't see any by the side of the road billowing copious amounts of vapor.

I however then have to buy another vehicle of similar size.

Won't your daughters be old enough to have their own cars? They can give you rides.

This would likely be another new hybrid (EV likely would be too expensive for the amount of daily miles we drive to justify) from a reliable company (Toyota,

Head gaskets!

Honda, Mazda) in my climate.

Mediterranean for the most part - I love it.

Candidate would likely be something like CRV / Rav4 / Venza / Corolla hatch / etc: smaller than a minivan but larger than a "compact sedan" in the trunk / cargo area.

They do make compact fishing gear.

Would this make sense at all? or would taking the chance on the HG (6-10k) and plan for battery replacement (6k) and keep it till 250k makes more sense?

I'd buy a new or used car when the old one is getting long in the tooth. I can't put a price on peace of mind, maybe you can.

 

[PandaBear]

Is this hypothetical or do you have such a Prius?

That's all hypothetical. A friend of mine has 2015 Prius and it's rusted out. Holes in the roof above the windshield, doors shed rust when you close them, a hatch hinge broke off due to rust.

Take the money and run.

You might get hit by an 18-wheeler, though. Do Priuses tend to blow head gaskets? I don't see any by the side of the road billowing copious amounts of vapor.

Won't your daughters be old enough to have their own cars? They can give you rides.

Head gaskets!

Mediterranean for the most part - I love it.

They do make compact fishing gear.

I'd buy a new or used car when the old one is getting long in the tooth. I can't put a price on peace of mind, maybe you can.

I do have this Prius V. No rust in my area even on my 27 year old cars. This gen of Prius do tend to blow HG. Not for fishing but mainly for luggages for trips and all.

 

[brages]

Your prices for repairs seem way too high to me. And your mileage for failure is probably too pessimistic. Obama said it best: if you like your Prius, you should keep your Prius

 

[4WD]

Maybe, Critics cleaned his and it still blew the HG. I'll definitely clean it but it is still a luck of draw.

It could go either way - and I think it will

 

[supton]

Downside to running it until it quits may mean having to make an expensive decision under duress. If it quits, can you get by for a year plus while shopping and waiting for the right deal?

I’m leaning towards keeping it and doing the work when it is time. There is a risk you might total it the day after the work, but that is always a risk. I think here, even if that happens, you are still that much further ahead, having saved that much over the years.