The Information Age

Status
Not open for further replies.
Originally Posted By: jsharp
And honestly, if I am I'll admit it and change my evil ways. But so far, I don't think so. My only fear about it is that the mob of true believers will take away any number of my personal freedoms in an attempt to exorcise their demons.

If anyone can answer the question the other way I'll start being less careful. Where is all the extra heat coming from that is warming everything and melting all the ice..in the recent years?

And man is not insignificant..we have turned a very high percentage of the earth's Carbon that took nature hundreds of years to store by photosynthesis into Carbon Dioxide.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: Al
Originally Posted By: jsharp

Only 20 years of oil left. Heard every year since I was old enough to understand the meaning.
'Some' people may have it in 20 years..those that can aford it. The question is..can you (or me)?

New ice age coming. As seen on the cover of Time magazine.
The overwheloming number of climatologists never bought into that theory. You can find junk science anywhere (expecially in "Time"

World almost out of silver. Google Hunt brothers for details.
You have worried about that??
World out of food sometime in the 90's. Club of Rome perhaps?

Y2K
You have worried about that??
AIDS pandemic.
You have worried about that?? Wear boots.

Alar contamination of apples.
You have worried about that?? Wash your fruit

Mad cow disease.
You have worried about that?? Are you from South Korea?

Increase in shark attacks. Opps, they were really down that year.
You have worried about that??
Increase in hurricase. Opps, they're down too.
Don't write this one off just yet.
DDT. Mosquitos are our friend?
They never were my friend

Florine in municipal water supplies. A plot by dentists perhaps?

In every case above and I could likely find a hundred more, conventional wisdom, the popular press, and "scientific consensus" was not only wrong but ridiculously so.
You might want to be more selective on your sources of information

But this time with certain *particular* issues things are different? Ok, but call me a continuing skeptic. Even if it might get me burned as a witch and non believer...

................


Al, maybe you missed what I said before. None of those items threw me into a panic and I'm still not in that state in reference to what I see happening in the world today.

You can talk about me needing better sources but that's how the thread started isn't it? Buster's observation that so much of what he reads and sees contradicts other things he reads and sees. More information than ever but little truth.

He's not alone in that frustration. I was merely pointing out some of the most popular and done to death examples of that.

As far as hurricanes, we may see more. Last year we didn't. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

The price of oil in 20 years and if we'll be able to afford it? Who knows? We could consult some oil industry experts or a few economists or maybe an astrologer. Given everyone's track record the last few years my bet is any one of them would have about the same chance of being right.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: Al
Originally Posted By: jsharp
And honestly, if I am I'll admit it and change my evil ways. But so far, I don't think so. My only fear about it is that the mob of true believers will take away any number of my personal freedoms in an attempt to exorcise their demons.

If anyone can answer the question the other way I'll start being less careful. Where is all the extra heat coming from that is warming everything and melting all the ice..in the recent years?

And man is not insignificant..we have turned a very high percentage of the earth's Carbon that took nature hundreds of years to store by photosynthesis into Carbon Dioxide.


We don't know where the heat is coming from do we? Or how much of it even exists. Given the climate modelers seeming inability to predict current temps from past data and the almost silly way of making some of the measurements, it's not confidence building.

But it does bring up another question. Where did all of the heat come from in the past? In times of drastic climate change long before fat Americans and SUV's?

Anyone have an answer for that? Because if they've no answer for that I'm hard pressed to accept that they know enough to say with any surety that *this time* it must be our fault.
 
Well what is it about the evidence that climate change is occuring that you do not agree with. I totally believe everyone is entitled to their own opinion. What I can not accept is people spreading their opinion like it is the word of god, but havnt bothered to study any of the bountiful information available on the subject and fall back on "it just is". To me the denial side seems more dogmatic in their inability to front an argument against. I am not saying that you are doing that but I will say I have encountered it more times on the internet than I care to see. So maybe you know something that I do not? Would you please share.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: jsharp
Al said:
But it does bring up another question. Where did all of the heat come from in the past? In times of drastic climate change long before fat Americans and SUV's?

Anyone have an answer for that? Because if they've no answer for that I'm hard pressed to accept that they know enough to say with any surety that *this time* it must be our fault.


Its difficult to prove exactly the sequence of events that occurred in the past...no one was there. No one could measure any thing. Temperatures could have warmed and cooled ofer 1000's of years with solar variations etc. Noone knows for sure. But one thing is that formations of ice (ice ages) occurred over periods of 10s of thousands and more yers. Here we know that significant warming is taking place and ice is melting in a span of 25 and less years.

It takes giga-therms to do that. And since there are no apparent additions of energy being added..it is reasonable to conclude that the GH Gases (as per theory are causing it). Many of these GH gases are up 30%. It seems so simple (to me anyway) If ALGore can understand it anyone should be able to.
 
Quote:
To me the denial side seems more dogmatic in their inability to front an argument against. I am not saying that you are doing that but I will say I have encountered it more times on the internet than I care to see.


This is what I see more than anything of substance to move me otherwise. In fact, it is this denial that fuels my "little voice" more than anything that any liberal agenda ever could. It's also so polarized along our political lines that this, in itself (and with little more justification), bolsters my distrust of those who tell me to blow it off for purely since it's primarily fueled by politics far more than science.


js fielded the challenge fairly well here. I tend to agree with his assessment that if there is something to be done, there isn't anyway to do it. I don't think you'll ever get a united planet to do anything ..even if it was to save themselves.

This resignation doesn't stop my desire to know about it and explain it ..nor does it compel me to discount the research/investigation into it.

I want to know ..and the more I'm told that I don't need to bother with something, the more I'm convinced that it's exactly what I need to do.
 
Originally Posted By: Julian
Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
This is up there with Barneystein
LOL.gif
thumbsup2.gif



Julian ..you never fail me in these struggling moments in my attempt to be understood..
grin2.gif
 
Well, Mr. Sharp, we eagerly await your postiong of data and its sources showing that the global average temperature is declingin, your satellite images showing the Arctic ice pack advancing rather than melting, how about some of those many peer-reviewed articles from the 70's about the impending Ice Age (forgetting entirely that technically we're still in the last one), etc....
And why do you insist on such leaps of illogic that anyone wants to "revert" to living like a Chinese peasant (which would entail having lived like one before, which would be a surprise) just because they don't want to live like reckless pigs anymore? It's typical bovine poop, used for effect and distraction, and just isn't true.
You're good at sound bites, but what backs it up? Maybe you should start your own AM radio talk show!
 
As for hurricane forecasting, it's a bit funny, as Dr. Gray is "somewhat" of a heathen nonbeliever when it comes to GW, CC, whatever you wish to call it. Interestingly those who deny skill in climate modeling defend skill in hurricane prediction.
 
Originally Posted By: Duffman77
Well what is it about the evidence that climate change is occuring that you do not agree with. I totally believe everyone is entitled to their own opinion. What I can not accept is people spreading their opinion like it is the word of god, but havnt bothered to study any of the bountiful information available on the subject and fall back on "it just is". To me the denial side seems more dogmatic in their inability to front an argument against. I am not saying that you are doing that but I will say I have encountered it more times on the internet than I care to see. So maybe you know something that I do not? Would you please share.


Climate change is occurring. It has over millennia. What's in question is man's contribution to it. No one from any side has been able to show that with any accuracy. So what we have are models and theories and guesses and faith.

What we don't have thus far is any proof.

You're welcome to think I've not looked at these issues and made my mind up in a vacuum. It means nothing to me. But what I won't get into is the usual form these arguments take. Where the premise is that anthropogenetic climate change is real and to "win" the argument I have to proof that assumption wrong.

The anthropogenetic climate change assertion has been made by any number of people not just on this board but worldwide. They've just yet to prove it.

And trying to re-frame the argument to make me and people like me prove them wrong changes that not at all.
 
The majority of scientists do believe man is contributing to GW.
 
Originally Posted By: Al
Originally Posted By: jsharp
Al said:
But it does bring up another question. Where did all of the heat come from in the past? In times of drastic climate change long before fat Americans and SUV's?

Anyone have an answer for that? Because if they've no answer for that I'm hard pressed to accept that they know enough to say with any surety that *this time* it must be our fault.


Its difficult to prove exactly the sequence of events that occurred in the past...no one was there. No one could measure any thing. Temperatures could have warmed and cooled ofer 1000's of years with solar variations etc. Noone knows for sure. But one thing is that formations of ice (ice ages) occurred over periods of 10s of thousands and more yers. Here we know that significant warming is taking place and ice is melting in a span of 25 and less years.

It takes giga-therms to do that. And since there are no apparent additions of energy being added..it is reasonable to conclude that the GH Gases (as per theory are causing it). Many of these GH gases are up 30%. It seems so simple (to me anyway) If ALGore can understand it anyone should be able to.



Al, that is one of my problems with this issue. The "measurements" from previous times are being done by proxy. So a scientific person would automatically question the accuracy.

But we're adding even more noise now in a different way. We're measuring all sorts of things like madmen then trying to fit that data into models and theories and notions about how the climate works.

We're continually changing the way we measure things and adding new measurements on top of old, some taken by proxy, some real. Then we're trying to take that dataset and use it to predict the future. Even as we accept that we can't explain the past.

It's no wonder we've failed so far. The technique doesn't pass any critical examination for accuracy.

You are right that C02 levels are up. So we think anyway. But they've been higher before according to proxy and since CO2 is trace element it's difficult for me to believe that the effects of this couldn't easily be swamped by other factors.
 
Originally Posted By: buster
The majority of scientists do believe man is contributing to GW.


You forgot - Except for the 10's of thousands that don't.

If we're going to add them up can we eliminate political "scientists"?
grin2.gif
 
Originally Posted By: MarkC
Well, Mr. Sharp, we eagerly await your postiong of data and its sources showing that the global average temperature is declingin, your satellite images showing the Arctic ice pack advancing rather than melting, how about some of those many peer-reviewed articles from the 70's about the impending Ice Age (forgetting entirely that technically we're still in the last one), etc....
And why do you insist on such leaps of illogic that anyone wants to "revert" to living like a Chinese peasant (which would entail having lived like one before, which would be a surprise) just because they don't want to live like reckless pigs anymore? It's typical bovine poop, used for effect and distraction, and just isn't true.
You're good at sound bites, but what backs it up? Maybe you should start your own AM radio talk show!



Sorry Mark, if you build a straw man don't expect me to put clothes on it. I've never once maintained that global temps are not changing although I will say we are unsure how much and we're certainly unsure of why.

And face it, the AGW crowd can't explain it either. Unless you have links that prove otherwise with any surety lets accept that fact and move on.

No, I can't produce many links from on internet from the 70's so I'll give you that one. Al Gore should have invented the internet sooner.

The Chinese peasant comment was based on a couple of things. Some of the comments made that we need to ration fuel, or force people to use mass transit, or move into cities, or raise CAFE numbers to some much larger number, etc. etc. And also from my observations of the likely effects of the carbon trade and cap schemes that have been put forth. What exactly will the effects of trading carbon credits be past a mass transfer of wealth from the US and other wealthy countries to "undeveloped" countries like China?

What exactly are we capping? Carbon output or just the carbon output of the west and the $$ in western pocketbooks?

If this is such an issue then why do poor countries get a pass? And on a macro level, if you make more $$ than I do or for some reason or another generate more carbon than I do will you have to buy carbon credits from me to drive your car to work? If not, why not? If it's a good idea globally why isn't it good nationally?

Talk show host. I do like that!
grin2.gif
I bet the money is almost as good as flying around trying to sell carbon credits!

Anyway, so you don't feel I cheated you I won't let go without any links. For your entertainment, here's a link to how we measure some of those rising temps you keep talking about -

http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php

Look at the photos and read the site surveys. We have sites with air conditioning unit exhausts blowing on the sensors, sites that were 20 years ago in open fields that are now in asphalt parking lots, and even a site where the recorders noticed that when they watered the grass the temps would drop. Yet they dutifully recorded those temps and they went right into the climate record. Accuracy? Hey, who needs it right?

Me for one. In my case I've been working with process instrumentation for about 30 years and if one of my underlings did temperature measurements in that manner I'd let them explain what happened to the unemployment office.

Feel free to call this junk science, "science" and keep the faith brother. But I won't...
 
Originally Posted By: MarkC
Lets see a list of the tens of thousands, then.
And you can't really say the melting icecaps are the result of faulty measurements.



Here's one to 30,000 +

http://www.petitionproject.org/index.html

Yes, I know some of the AGW "scientists" tried to muck up the works by putting their names on then claiming they were forged or that they don't agree thus bringing the whole petition into question.

But even if we subtract 2/3 of them we're still above 10K

Your turn. Post a link to address the errors in the way we measure surface temperatures as shown by the link I posted from surfacestations.org.

No link? We'll just assume that the dataset produced by those stations is junk and throw it out.

As far as the ice caps, we had the coldest winter in my location in a number of years. Sort of risky using localized events to determine global temperatures don't you think?

And even if we forget all of that and accept that the planet is getting warmer, still no solid connection to man. Just like there 's no solid connection between man and the increased temps we think we're seeing on Mars...
 
Last edited:
That would mean something except - science isn't a voting process ! One scientist with the right answer outweighs any number of those with the wrong answer !
 
Originally Posted By: jsharp
What we don't have thus far is any proof.
The anthropogenetic climate change assertion has been made by any number of people not just on this board but worldwide. They've just yet to prove it.


EPA:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basicinfo.html
"If greenhouse gases continue to increase, climate models predict that the average temperature at the Earth's surface could increase from 3.2 to 7.2ºF above 1990 levels by the end of this century. Scientists are certain that human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere, and that increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases will change the planet's climate. But they are not sure by how much it will change, at what rate it will change, or what the exact effects will be."
You of course dispute this information? So you don't believe the EPA right?

You keep using the word "Prove". I assume if Scientists are "Certain" that is not a proof?

And keep in mind. The theory Quantum Mechanics is not "Proved" yet Quantum Theoreticians can predict QM results to an equivalent of the thickness of a human hair compacted to the distance of NY to San Francisco. So I would assume you would have doubts on the "Theory" of Quantum Mechanics?

Just trying to find what your level of "Proof" is.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: jsharp

The anthropogenetic climate change assertion has been made by any number of people not just on this board but worldwide. They've just yet to prove it.


How about this:

NOAA/NCDC
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios determines the range of future possible greenhouse gas concentrations (and other forcings) based on considerations such as population growth, economic growth, energy efficiency and a host of other factors. This leads a wide range of possible forcing scenarios, and consequently a wide range of possible future climates.

According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in climate model performance, the IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100, depending on which emissions scenario is used.

Do you believe this information?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom