The bellweather stock I will watch to see how the US and global economy is doing

[eljefino]

They would keep a rural school open for ONE student, with 6 staffs, till he graduated. In any other country it would be closed and the student bused elsewhere daily. In Japan they would keep a rail line running into a rural area and not close it, and run a deficit, because they just want to keep things steady and not rock the boat. This is how they run up such a huge deficit and Mrs Watanabe invest their household funds in foreign markets instead of their own stock markets / bonds. They know their own stock and bond markets are manipulated.

IMO the US pendulum is too far in the other direction. We used to have "noble professions"-- cops, mailmen, teachers. They were paid a middle wage and could afford to live in the communities they served. Now everyone's trying to squeeze the last nickel out of these guys and there are thousands of unfilled positions.

Watch some British TV... they're culturally proud of their institutions. Watch Seinfeld and we've got Newman.

 

[Pablo]

IMO the US pendulum is too far in the other direction. We used to have "noble professions"-- cops, mailmen, teachers. They were paid a middle wage and could afford to live in the communities they served. Now everyone's trying to squeeze the last nickel out of these guys and there are thousands of unfilled positions.

Watch some British TV... they're culturally proud of their institutions. Watch Seinfeld and we've got Newman.

Huh? Teachers on the west coast retire with 6K$ pensions. Elementary. Teachers are not underpaid

 

[alarmguy]

Leo99,

I know a person that spent 2 months in the hospital and $3M medical bill.

No joke.

Absolutely not a joke I even wonder if 3 million was the negotiated price or the full retail value
I only asked that because a family member has had a couple medical emergencies regarding his heart, but at any given time he was never in hospital for more than four days even after a procedure for the year 2023.
Retail cost of his medical treatments for this year were $500,000

Last year I had a medical procedure, an ablation and I’m in very good shape. I was in and out of the hospital in seven hours. The retail cost without the negotiated price was over $120,000. My medical bills all told retail cost would’ve been $129,000 for 2022. I believe I posted in here at some point this summary thank you Medicare advantage C my cost to me personally was $859.
Plus free, dental vision and contact lenses plus free $1200 gym membership
Plus $260 credit per year of free over the counter items, toothpaste, aspirin. Suntan lotion etc

The key is once you are 65 years old and on Medicare make sure you get the right plan and if you do, you can’t be responsible for more than whatever the maximum out-of-pocket is for that plan. Is. I always choose the lowest possible out-of-pocket plans which in my case is 4500 maximum exposure per year no matter what happens to me.
The cost of the plan to me is simply what Medicare takes out of my Social Security check every month which for the year I think was $170 plus with the plan. I have an extra $39 that I have to pay even though there were other plans where I don’t have to pay anything I’m just really happy with this one and it’s worth it to me.
@Leo99

 

[NormanBuntz]

Maybe that's what they were doing most of their life and now they are enjoying the fruit of their labor and investing.

I'm just glad that I can buy a cup of Starbucks coffee for less than the price of a gallon of K1 kerosene.

 

[GON]

Gon,

Would be interested to hear more on this. Are you talking about those solely or mostly relying on SS, or the population as a whole? I often wonder how many plan for retirement without accounting for the fact that over the course of time between hanging up the hat and death (let's call it 20 years for most) expenses are surely to increase with even normal inflationary adjustments. This needs to be considered in the planning process for fixed incomes.

@tbm5690, your question requires a many paragraphs response. I am on a 4+ hour flight and tires. Tomorrow evening, I will write and post the proper reply to your question.

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

Last Friday I went to put one pound of air in a tire in Castle Pines, CO. What an adventure, seven broken gas station pay air dispensers in a row, but that story is for another day.

After spending 90 minutes trying to put air in a tire in one of the most wealthy counties in the USA, thought to bring home my Wife and Daughter a Starbucks. I was at one of the numerous Castle Rock, Co Starbucks. The Starbucks was not near the outlet mall. The Starbucks was packed, both lobby and drive up.

Ordered three drinks, $19. Took about 30 minutes for the drinks. As I sat waiting for the drinks, I saw the light. People are paying $6 USD now for a Starbucks. Wow..and the place is jammed packed with customers. I had no idea three drinks would cost me $19 at Starbucks.

We know many in the US are struggling to make ends meet. Some.if these have been struggling for decades. But others appear to be doing very well and a lot of them.

When Starbucks sees a fall in US sales, that will be an accurate sign of pain among US citizens that are better off then others. If/when that happens, that will be the sign of a failing economy.

I don’t know that your plan may be solid, in the fact that I’ve been hoping for years that people would see Starbucks’ anti-American corporate positions and begin to boycott (or buycott them with other coffee companies!) them. We get enough politics shoved down our throats daily; there’s no need to ruin anyone’s coffee with a bunch of unwanted nonsense!

I do get your point, though; but because I’m closer to the industry I think a better indicator is tied to alcohol consumption. When the economy is tight, the cheaper beers and in cans increase in sales; when the economy is booming for Joe Average, they reach for glass bottles and craft beers. So the canary in the mine is craft beer sales, and the “Katy bar the door” moment is when canned beer jumps significantly. Not sure either of those metrics is available to the average investor, though.

 

[nickaluch]

Huh? Teachers on the west coast retire with 6K$ pensions. Elementary. Teachers are not underpaid

We have school custodians retiring with 6 k a month in NY..I sold my business I joined them a couple years ago

 

[billt460]

Starbucks is one of the many examples of why 63% of working people in this country don't have $500 cash to pay for an emergency expense.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/63p...le-to-pay-a-500-emergency-expense-survey.html

 

[Pew]

This place?

https://chwinery.com/

Correcto. The food was really good!

If that wasn't an anniversary or birthday dinner either you either need to pick your restaurants better or your women better

Bday dinner but we rarely go out so overall it was a nice treat for both of us.

I was about to say, get married, then get back to me on how expensive dating is.

Ugh tell me about it, both my ex and my current friend is divorced. I get to hear about it all the time lol.

 

[Lubener]

Pack a thermos next time.

 

[supton]

The investment gurus do preach saving a lot of money for retirement. Like 10 times your salary when you retire. Health care eats up a lot of retirement money. More than some planned.

10x is a good starting point, but if you hit the SS bending points, start increasing that up a few x. Not only that, but because less is going in, the ratio of workers to retirees is going down, expected payout may well ge 25% down—so tack on a few more x.

Want to retire early? oh boy 20x sounds low…

Say someone retired with a nice fixed pension in 1995 of $1000. Not a bad monthly sum back then. Now 2023 on that and SS, better have a nice amount of savings or living fairly poor

Not disagreeing but isn’t that person very likely pushing 90? lousy time to run out of money and a real shame that we can’t control inflation like they say can, but while some could retire like this in their 50’s I thought most were 60’s.

Pretty hard to plan 30 years into the future, not easy doing even 10.

 

[Pablo]

10x is a good starting point, but if you hit the SS bending points, start increasing that up a few x. Not only that, but because less is going in, the ratio of workers to retirees is going down, expected payout may well ge 25% down—so tack on a few more x.

Want to retire early? oh boy 20x sounds low…


Not disagreeing but isn’t that person very likely pushing 90? lousy time to run out of money and a real shame that we can’t control inflation like they say can, but while some could retire like this in their 50’s I thought most were 60’s.

Pretty hard to plan 30 years into the future, not easy doing even 10.

Huh!?

You have to plan beyond 30 years. Inflation included

I think that’s what the core of this thread is about

 

[supton]

Huh!?

You have to plan beyond 30 years. Inflation included

I think that’s what the core of this thread is about

Didn’t say not to. Just asking, where do you get your crystal ball polished so you can predict the years where inflation will spike? that way I can put it into my calculations.

But I don’t think many 65 year olds have to worry about living 30 more years, the numbers aren’t good. Very wise to plan for that, but I’m not sure how critical.

 

[Pablo]

Didn’t say not to. Just asking, where do you get your crystal ball polished so you can predict the years where inflation will spike? that way I can put it into my calculations.

But I don’t think many 65 year olds have to worry about living 30 more years, the numbers aren’t good. Very wise to plan for that, but I’m not sure how critical.

All my relatives live into nineties crystal ball number one

I preach food and exercise- not magic but hope to get there

Lastly it’s not save a little and hope it lasts. It is save until it hurts. Then know it will last through even nasty inflation

Get other gigs that pay during retirement

Don’t waste money during your grunt years so you have money during those 30+ years

 

[LDB]

All my relatives live into nineties crystal ball number one

I preach food and exercise- not magic but hope to get there

Lastly it’s not save a little and hope it lasts. It is save until it hurts. Then know it will last through even nasty inflation

Get other gigs that pay during retirement

Don’t waste money during your grunt years so you have money during those 30+ years

Boy, do some people really need to hear that.

 

[supton]

Lastly it’s not save a little and hope it lasts. It is save until it hurts.

Yeah, that's been my takeaway as I ramp up. It feels a lot like the 80's when televangelists would say "give, give some more, give until it hurts--then give some more." Only now it's "save, same some more, save until it hurts--then save some more."

For retirement planning you just can't save enough it seems. Some days it's a bit demoralizing--and that's for someone who has the income to do so.

 

[alarmguy]

Glad inflation is a boom for you. Might want to look through eyes other than your own.

For many senior citizens, often some of the most vulnerable of adult Americans that can't change their situation, are crushed by the change in their buying power. This change is not a result of their doing.

I definitely see your point but with that said, inflation is a part of life and one needs to plan for it in retirement.
There isn't any magic golden goose to protect anyone in life, who can lay golden eggs for you? That is a fairytale. You need to protect yourself as best you can. It's what life is about, there is no higher power that can take care of you. It's you, life and death.

So the result is not of their doing? Maybe, maybe not but let's just call it nature. It's the nature of life and if you want to place blame also the voting patterns of the majority of which is much of the senior population throughout their lifetimes. There is no one to take care of you, but you if you want to be a free person and not institutionalized.

No one is responsible for you but you.

 

[alarmguy]

We have school custodians retiring with 6 k a month in NY..I sold my business I joined them a couple years ago

That is too funny I knew of someone too who was a custodian. I couldn't believe how much he made *LOL* We need to highlight Long Island, NY. With its huge tax and utility burden. Work and then retire someplace else if you want to live like a king.

I posted this in the past, one must keep in mind this is AVERAGE. A career inspector ect makes over 300k a year.
Nassau County Police officer pay. Most people can't comprehend. also every 3 days they work they are off 3 days and at some point a 4th day.

Public ad for police lieutenant for $165,000 a year.
https://www.governmentjobs.com/careers/nassaucountyny/jobs/newprint/2511216

 

[nickaluch]

That is too funny I knew of someone too. I couldn't believe how much he made *LOL* But we need to highlight Long Island, NY.
I posted this in the past, one must keep in mind this is AVERAGE. A career inspector ect makes over 300k a year.
Nassau County Police officer pay. Most people can't comprehend.
View attachment 191325
https://www.governmentjobs.com/careers/nassaucountyny/jobs/newprint/2511216

That is too funny I knew of someone too who was a custodian. I couldn't believe how much he made *LOL* We need to highlight Long Island, NY. With its huge tax and utility burden. Work and then retire someplace else if you want to live like a king.

I posted this in the past, one must keep in mind this is AVERAGE. A career inspector ect makes over 300k a year.
Nassau County Police officer pay. Most people can't comprehend. also every 3 days they work they are off 3 days and at some point a 4th day.
View attachment 191325

Public ad for police lieutenant for $165,000 a year.
https://www.governmentjobs.com/careers/nassaucountyny/jobs/newprint/2511216

I was retired young getting bored complaining about my high school taxes. I figured can't beat them I'll join them took a civil service custodian test scored a 100 took a job 5 minutes from my house with a pension free family health insurance.

 

[buster]

I don't get overly concerned with the salary of educators. It's an important role that helps shape future generations.

My economic prediction is there will be growth, recession, maybe a depression and a war in the future. Sign up for my newsletter and blog for more incredible insights.