The bellweather stock I will watch to see how the US and global economy is doing

[GON]

Last Friday I went to put one pound of air in a tire in Castle Pines, CO. What an adventure, seven broken gas station pay air dispensers in a row, but that story is for another day.

After spending 90 minutes trying to put air in a tire in one of the most wealthy counties in the USA, thought to bring home my Wife and Daughter a Starbucks. I was at one of the numerous Castle Rock, Co Starbucks. The Starbucks was not near the outlet mall. The Starbucks was packed, both lobby and drive up.

Ordered three drinks, $19. Took about 30 minutes for the drinks. As I sat waiting for the drinks, I saw the light. People are paying $6 USD now for a Starbucks. Wow..and the place is jammed packed with customers. I had no idea three drinks would cost me $19 at Starbucks.

We know many in the US are struggling to make ends meet. Some.if these have been struggling for decades. But others appear to be doing very well and a lot of them.

When Starbucks sees a fall in US sales, that will be a accurate sign of pain among US citizens that are better off then others. If/when that happens, that will be the sign of a failing economy.

 

[wwillson]

I refuse to pay $6 for a cup of black coffee or coffee with a bunch of sugar, so I quit going to Starbucks years ago.

Besides, when you grind beans just before you make coffee through your pour over, you can't drink that crap from Starbucks or anywhere else.

 

[b_b]

I think this is partially true and its also evidence of the widening of the gab between the have and the have nots. growing up there were a couple a rich households and a lot of just regular people. Now there are a lot of poor people and a lot rich people. There doesn't seem to be many people in-between anymore.

 

[Just a civilian pilot]

Starbucks does extremely well in my city despite closing a few stores ( only because fewer working downtown now...huge government town ).

Not my kind of place but I take my son there occasionally.

 

[JohnnyG]

If you really want to use a stock for that, track Dollar General DG.

 

[drtyler]

A better question is why all that effort for one pound of air in a tire?

 

[GON]

A better question is why all that effort for one pound of air in a tire?

My wife is spending a month living in the greater Denver area as I was scheduled to be oconus for the month.

The AWD Mercedes SUV my wife is driving displays a warning when a tire is just one pound off from its counterpart tire. Rear to rear/ front to front.

The issue is, left uncorrected---- if there was a real issue with a tire going flat, my wife would not distinguish the difference between a tire being one pound low, and being 20 pounds low. I don't want my wife having a tire problem in Denver's winter weather. So to not have "warning messages" dispayed that are actually erroneous, I needed that air pressure in bith rear tires to be equal. Never ever have a seen 1 lbs of air pressure low trigger a warning- but this is German engineering.

 

[ron17571]

Most of those Star Bucks drinks are giant jolts of liquid-flavored sugar. Diabetes specials.

 

[GON]

If you really want to use a stock for that, track Dollar General DG.

Maybe my assessment is erroneous.

My thoughts are many of DG customers are on fixed income. Many DG customers have little to no discretionary income. But many Starbucks customers have ample discretionary income. How is DG a bellwether for a economy with loss of discretionary income?

And of note- I am a DG customer. I don't see TSLA or the like vehicles in DG parking lots- heck I rarely see pickups in DG parking lots, especially pickups under ten years old. I do see a lot of 20+ year old mini vans and such in DG parking lots.

 

[wings&wheels]

Had a friend who worked for a major bank since we graduated college until not that long ago. Their main office overlooked a rail yard. Aside from the analysts reports, he would judge the economy by simply how full the rail yard was and the mix of rolling stock, and it was a surprisingly good indicator.

 

[IndyIan]

My wife is spending a month living in the greater Denver area as I was scheduled to be oconus for the month.

The AWD Mercedes SUV my wife is driving displays a warning when a tire is just one pound off from its counterpart. Rear to rear/ front to front.

The issue is, of left uncorrected, if there was a real issue with a tire going flat, my wife would not distinguish the difference between a tire being one pound low, and being 20 pounds low. I don't want my wife having a tire problem in Denver winter weather.

Bike pump in the trunk is good for this, saves lots of time, and works the triceps too.

 

[brianl703]

heck I rarely see pickups in DG parking lots

Location, location, location, the one in Catlett Virginia had at least two or three pickups in it 4 out of the 6 times when the Google street view camera came though. But there aren't a lot of places to shop there, so Dollar General is more convenient than going all the way to Warrenton or Manassas for shopping.

 

[Brons2]

Bike pump in the trunk is good for this, saves lots of time, and works the triceps too.

If you have a nice one that's high volume, i.e. for pumping up 29er or fat bike tires, works surprisingly well on car tires. I have been inflating my car tires with a bike pump recently.

 

[eljefino]

I watch 18 wheelers on the highway-- if they're booking it at 80+ MPH the economy is swinging!

My kid works as a barista in a Starbucks in a Target. The place is mismanaged, but that's Target's fault. Like you say, they'll spend $6 on a coffee. He reports they hit resistance at $8 or more, so will only then ask to reconfigure their orders to come in more reasonably.

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

It boggles my mind to see how many people fight and burn an enormous amount of their life waiting in a line at Starbucks.

I am not a coffee drinker, so I am not a patron of any coffee shop. Or coffee. Anyhwere. I have finally got the point across to my daughter that SB is a very nasty, toxic, almost enemy of the US. She no longer spends any money there. My wife isn't a coffee drinker and will oblige my point of view for other products they have that she has bought in the past. She's not a Starbucks customer either.

I do wonder WTH they put in their products to make people act the way they do for the stuff.



As far as how the economy is doing, look at your email. I saw MULTIPLE EMAILS PER DAY the last 4-5 days for the same retailer telling me that they had 25-30-40% off on everything. The biggest is Duluth Trading, 40% off everything. They have had 40% off sales before, but not since 2017 or so (hint, hint).

I haven't seen the retailers having sales like this in a long, long time.

 

[bbhero]

I think this supposed very good economy is headed for the trash heap…. The massive increase in home values vs personal incomes over the past 5-6 years is exceptionally familiar… Like 2006-2008 familiar.

Home prices in my region doubled between 2001-2007…

Did personal home incomes double in just that 7 years ??

Ahh no certainty nor.,.. No where near close..

This same phenomenon has happened in the past 6-7 years….

The Federal Reserve has no ammunition left to fight with… That choice is back to easy money policy lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy which will not have the typical kick back n the economy it used to have.. Or keep interest rates higher to fend off the fact the interest on our national deficit which is s now becoming more than defense spending and SSI etc combined on a monthly basis…

I remember bozos saying in the summer of 2007 everyone was saying everything was fine yada yada yada…

Fiat currency… Basically counterfeiting if you want to be more honest… And less and less other people from other places want to buy our debt… Can you blame them ?

A Federal Reserve with no answers left that will work and no good options.

Everything is fine all right … Until it’s not.. just like September 2008… This time it’s going to be a hell of a lot worse.

 

[Nukeman7]

Maybe my assessment is erroneous.

My thoughts are many of DG customers are on fixed income. Many DG customers have little to no discretionary income. But many Starbucks customers have ample discretionary income. How is DG a bellwether for a economy with loss of discretionary income?

And of note- I am a DG customer. I don't see TSLA or the like vehicles in DG parking lots- heck I rarely see pickups in DG parking lots, especially pickups under ten years old. I do see a lot of 20+ year old mini vans and such in DG parking lots.

Many economists have indicated that as the economy falters and discretionary spending wanes, the public shifts their spending to bargain basement retailers such as Dollar General, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree. Therefore, a significant uptick in DG/FD/DT sales and/or the expansion of new bargain stores are viewed as leading indicators of a slowing economy. Up until this year, DG stock was considered to be a very good investment due to their strategic growth plan in under-served and rural markets. DG kind of overshot their projections and had to rein in their ambitious expansion plans in 2022-2023.

 

[GON]

Many economists have indicated that as the economy falters and discretionary spending wanes, the public shifts their spending to bargain basement retailers such as Dollar General, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree. Therefore, a significant uptick in DG/FD/DT sales and/or the expansion of new bargain stores are viewed as leading indicators of a slowing economy. Up until this year, DG stock was considered to be a very good investment due to their strategic growth plan in under-served and rural markets. DG kind of overshot their projections and had to rein in their ambitious expansion plans in 2022-2023.

Great information- thank for posting "the why" on DG.

 

[brianl703]

As far as Starbucks goes, I know someone who spends a significant chunk of his SSI (disability--he has never worked to get enough credits to qualify for SSDI) income on that.

 

[GON]

As far as Starbucks goes, I know someone who spends a significant chunk of his SSI (disability--he has never worked to get enough credits to qualify for SSDI) income on that.

One has to look at this on a MACRO basis. Of course, on a MICRO basis there are exceptions.

I just read an article Warren Buffet, one of the world's top 25 wealthiest individuals, often eats at McDonald's for breakfast. That statement may be true- but it does not equate to the other 24 world's wealthiest individuals eating breakfast at McDonald's regularly.