Tesla's Real Challengers Are Comming

[itguy08]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
Originally Posted By: SeaJay
Only if the cost of electricity is competitive with gasoline. I suspect electricity is currently cheaper than gasoline, but if electric cars become widespread, who knows what the cost will be of bringing on-line all of the new plants that will be needed to power all of these vehicles.

Currently national average cost per kWh is 12 cents. Model S uses 1 kWh for about 4 miles of driving at 60 MPH, so it costs $1 for 33 miles. Compares with similar cars such as MB S550 and BMW 740 at 25 MPG with national average of $2.30/gal, it costs MB and BMW $3. So the saving is about 66% compares with gasoline cars.


That is until they start taxing the electricity for the roads. You're forgetting that a large portion of gasoline's price is contained in the various taxes which are not there on electricity.

And if there becomes mass electric car sales you will have to build a slew of new generating capacity, raising rates even further.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Originally Posted By: itguy08
That is until they start taxing the electricity for the roads. You're forgetting that a large portion of gasoline's price is contained in the various taxes which are not there on electricity.

And if there becomes mass electric car sales you will have to build a slew of new generating capacity, raising rates even further.

I agree, in the far future they may do it, but in the next few years the advantage of operating an EV is low cost. The only cost that EV doesn't have advantage over ICE is wear&tear items such as tires, brake pads and rotors, wiper blades ...

The electricity cost may not go up substantial if your location has smart meter that your local power company may charges much lower rate for off peak hours, usually from 9 PM to 7 AM weekdays and all day weekend.

 

[InfmousCornholio]

Ferrari F12 whooped on it after launch.

Who has seen the video?



That, and Tesla sounds like a vacuum cleaner. ?????? Meet George Jetson...

 

[HTSS_TR]

Originally Posted By: InfmousCornholio
Ferrari F12 whooped on it after launch.

Vacuum cleaner. ?????? Meet George Jetson...

Tesla Model S is a luxury sedan that happens to use alternate battery operated electric engine(s), which generates zero emission from tail pipe.

Valid performance comparison should be done with other luxury sedans in the same price range. BMW 7 series or MB E550 or Audi A8 ... are compatible vehicles.

Or comparing Tesla Model S with any battery operated electric car in similar price range is valid. Currently there is no car directly compete with it.

The comparison between Model S and Ferrari is as valid as Roll Royce vs Hellcat.

 

[DoubleWasp]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
Originally Posted By: DoubleWasp
I'd credit Tesla less for these emerging electric cars, and the benefit to CAFE numbers and ZEV credits more. The full sized sedans are the largest hits against CAFE numbers.

If there was no CAFE nor ZEV credits then Tesla couldn't exit, especially California requires car makers to sell certain percentage ZEV in the next few years. Musk saw an opportunity in ZEV credit and saw a demo about lithium ion in a battery assembly company he came up with the idea of using it in a car, and after that Tesla was born.

Before Tesla no car company think that battery powered car can achieve more than 100 miles driving distance. They were thinking of performance of battery powered golf cart, 5-15 MPH and distance of 5-10 miles.

As with any new technology, the first few generations are expensive but the price goes down as volume goes up after few years.

As pointed out, Model 3 is very critical for Tesla to survive as a car company. If they can do it right they will be a dominant player of alternative vehicles.

It's very clear that Tesla paved the way for EV, they showed the world that BEV(Battery Electric Vehicle) is a viable alternative vehicle to existing ICE.


My point exactly. Regardless of what Tesla is or is not doing, the motivating factor here is ZEV and CAFE benefits. Use of electric power in a motor vehicle is not something Tesla invented, nor pioneered.

Any one of the auto manufacturers is and was capable of making an electric car with a range greater than 100 miles. The expense of the whole thing is what has kept them from making such a thing. They correctly identified that such a thing would be purely an unnecessary boutique toy, even in an arena of expensive boutique toys.

Tesla hasn't proven the EV a viable alternative yet. His intention is to build a car that Nissan has been building for a years now. I've yet to see a Leaf on every street corner just yet. When I do see them, they rarely occupy a household that does not also have at least one ICE powered car.

It's very clear to me that if it were not for the road paved by the EV-1, Honda Insight, and especially the Toyota Prius, Tesla wouldn't even exist. These were the cars that made the public open to the idea of electric motors and batteries in a motor vehicle, years before Musk opened his doors.

 

[DoubleWasp]

Originally Posted By: SeaJay
Originally Posted By: Merkava_4
Find a way to extend the range and recharge quickly, people won't want gasoline cars no more.


Only if the cost of electricity is competitive with gasoline. I suspect electricity is currently cheaper than gasoline, but if electric cars become widespread, who knows what the cost will be of bringing on-line all of the new plants that will be needed to power all of these vehicles.


Exactly. People don't seem to understand the cost behind the creation of the infrastructure. There will come a point when the government will have no choice but to stop carrying the EV technology on its back, and somebody is going to have to pay the trillions and trillions of dollars that it will cost to build the EV network.

In between that and the natural increase in price due to increased demand, we're not only going to be paying dearly for EV cars through their purchase price, taxes, and charging station rates; we're going to pay every time we turn on a light switch, turn on a TV, and run our home HVAC.

Elon Musk is a very smart man. His business now, before, and for the next few years is to sell a lot of dreams, and very few realities.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Originally Posted By: DoubleWasp
Elon Musk is a very smart man. His business now, before, and for the next few years is to sell a lot of dreams, and very few realities.

I don't blame him for seeing/gripping opportunities to make billions legally, by starting Space-X, Tesla motor, giga-factory. Actually, I admire him for what he done that last 10 years or so.

 

[DoubleWasp]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
Originally Posted By: DoubleWasp
Elon Musk is a very smart man. His business now, before, and for the next few years is to sell a lot of dreams, and very few realities.

I don't blame him for seeing/gripping opportunities to make billions legally, by starting Space-X, Tesla motor, giga-factory. Actually, I admire him for what he done that last 10 years or so.


Don't get me wrong. I don't dislike the man at all. I admire him quite a bit. He's probably one of the best walking examples of creativity, intelligence, ambition, organizing, and socialization skills all in one package. An incredible business man, and a shrewd SOB. Cut from the same mold as Walt Disney in many ways. And I do mean that in the best way possible.

I don't happen to think as much of the product he and the government pushes at Tesla Motors. Tesla Motors is an incredible concept. It's an incredible accomplishment. So great of an idea it is, that almost anyone forgets it's not doing a whole heck of a lot but making headlines, and offering some products for a very small minority and an even smaller wealthy minority who have never been known to conserve anything.

I understand the whole "proof-of-concept" thing, but I take issue with the salesmanship of this product, which addresses very few realities of what the product is, and what its place will be in society. It's being marketed less as a proof-of-concept, and more like proof-of-solution.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Musk's plan was/is a hi-performance convertible, next was luxury sedan then an SUV, after the SUV is a high volume mainstream sedan model 3. Yes, currently and in the next 2 years only the very rich can afford a Tesla's vehicle. The way Tesla is doing is learning how to manufacture an increasing volume, from few hundreds to few thousands to tens of thousands ...

It is not possible to go directly to a high volume sedan for a start up company in a fairly new technology, also the li-ion battery volume that 500,000 model 3 requires wasn't possible to acquire as of now, that why he built Giga-factory in Nevada.

I think many people dislike Tesla for their vehicles are for the rich only as of now, but that will change in couple years. They plan to introduce model 3 early next year and at the same time accept pre-order for 2017 delivery.

 

[Nate1979]

500,000 sales per year? That's a dream. That's more than Mazda!

 

[SteveSRT8]

I certainly hope everyone will watch closely. There is a huge cult of personality surrounding Musk. My feelings seem to mirror DW's in that he is a great man, but Tesla is simply not nearly as successful of a company in terms of volume as people seem to think.

Sure he'd love to sell half a million cars. You bet he would. But he makes whatever profits he does off of Government tax credits issued for EV's. He would NEVER have got this going without them.

We'll all get to see what happens, we don't need personality cheerleaders to hype his greatness...

 

[hattaresguy]

The Model S is a sales leader in its class, I suspect the model X will be as well.

Once the Model 3 comes out half a million units is totally possible.

People don't seem to understand Tesla's business plan, $100k cars is not it, they are simply a stepping stone. Building a vehicle like the Model 3 at a cost that is profitable was impossible a few years ago. Its just becoming possible thanks to the Giga Factory and Tesla's improved manufacturing.

Ford is a perfect example of this, the Model T was far from his first car it took a number of previous cars to get to that point and scale to reduce the cost. Musk is more or less doing the same thing.