Tesla Stock

[ME_Andy]

I just scratch my head about GM's business decisions. Great engineering, though.

But like, seriously, how did GM expect to produce so many EV models? This deal of hand-assembling small batches isn't fooling anybody.

I bet their forecasting was off by a factor of 100 on production quantity. And did GM really expect them to be profitable?

 

[E365]

I just scratch my head about GM's business decisions. Great engineering, though.

But like, seriously, how did GM expect to produce so many EV models? This deal of hand-assembling small batches isn't fooling anybody.

I bet their forecasting was off by a factor of 100 on production quantity. And did GM really expect them to be profitable?

The hold up has been the new high-capacity battery-module assembly lines. Issues with the company that makes them. They’ll get there - just takes a long time to ramp all this up.

Cell production isn’t an issue it sounds like. GM surpassed 10,000,000 cells produced at Ultium Ohio in July and are on track to hit 35,000,000 cells produced through the end of 2023 as it gets fully ramped. Then ~100,000,000 cells next year. Then another ~140,000,000 annually at Ultium Tennessee when that’s fully ramped (it opens soon) and another 100,000,000+ at Ultium Michigan.

 

[alarmguy]

I just scratch my head about GM's business decisions. Great engineering, though.

But like, seriously, how did GM expect to produce so many EV models? This deal of hand-assembling small batches isn't fooling anybody.

I bet their forecasting was off by a factor of 100 on production quantity. And did GM really expect them to be profitable?

But isnt this any new technology with any company? A decade of Tesla before a profit was shown.
The same question can be asked how did Tesla expect to get the truck out three years ago like they said it would?
Heck just weeks ago the CEO of Tesla said this truck been a mistake.

Not a knock on either company, it's just what it is. The only thing I find a rub is the constant negative BS about GM being profitable. They are profitable and their earnings per share have been quite good for the last ten years. Just because they are sinking money into new products is not a negative, they are still very profitable.

It goes for any company, developing products cost money, its a good company when they can do this and still return dividends which GM just increased again, stock buy backs, which GM just announced and still turn a sweet profit. One of their lessor profit years in dollars in the last ten years was Tesla's best year. Im not knocking Tesla but let's be fair across the automotive spectrum.

 

[ZeeOSix]

He has dismantled Twitter out of spite. I don’t consider that a genius maneuver, but can appreciate having faith in something.

Ego can over-ride genius.

 

[alarmguy]

Will be an interesting 1st quarter, many Model 3 RWD and all wheel drive will have their tax rebates cut in half. Still $3,500 or $4,000 cut may not be bad to most buyers and I have to wonder if that in itself will affect sales, even though they seem to expect a small short term affect.

This is yesterday = Denmark transportation unions will not deliver Tesla's to Sweden in sympathy to Swedish Unions. A possible work around initially was Tesla might bring the cars to Denmark ports and transport to Sweden but that isnt going to happen.
It seems to me based on what I am reading the Scandinavian people in general are getting rubbed the wrong way by American Corporation telling them how they much conduct themselves. Will see, either way I guess not a big deal to Tesla, maybe in the PR department.

(please do not turn this political)

 

[alarmguy]

OK class, here's your assignment for the day:
Pretend you have $30,000 to invest. At the end of today's trading, pretend you bought $10,000 worth of shares each in TSLA, Ford and GM. Write down the number of shares you own.

At the close of trading in December of this year, pretend you sold all those shares. Multiply those number of shares X the closing price and see which stock gave you the best return.

For bonus points, take an old boot, fill it with concrete and hang it from a tree branch in your yard, At the last day of trading in 2025, pretend you still own that X number of shares of TSLA. You can swing that boot to kick yourself repeatedly for not hanging onto those shares.

Ok here is the answer to your challenge that you posted on 10/11/23;

$10,000 worth of Tesla stock bought is now worth $9,442.24 which is a 5.5% loss

$10,000 worth of Ford Stock bought is now worth $10,312,74 with is a 3.12% gain

$10,000 worth of GM stock bought is now worth $11,594.25 which is a 15% gain

BTW - I would have never invested in Ford and Tesla but I did invest a large (over 35%) of my portfolio into GM shortly after this challenge that you posted. Purchase price was $29.6 a share on 10/20/23
Sold on 12/21/23 at 36.275 a share for a 22% gain.

I can only hope the market gets whacked in the next week or two and hope GM does along with it. If so, I may do the same all over again, heck, I might even jump back in, no commitment, I have other things I am interested in as well.

 

[ME_Andy]

I'm out of Tesla for now. Too many Chinese competitors doing interesting things, unfortunately.

 

[proveitwithdata]

byd is in the news. They are running to be the toyota of the ev industry

 

[JeffKeryk]

byd is in the news. They are running to be the toyota of the ev industry

Which is why we need to support American companies. I would not want to cede the EV market to China.

 

[Trav]

Which is why we need to support American companies. I would not want to cede the EV market to China.

I am afraid that deal is signed, sealed and done like almost everything else once made in this country, we have become a service economy for the Chinese manufacturers and it was done deliberately.

 

[demarpaint]

I am afraid that deal is signed, sealed and done like almost everything else once made in this country, we have become a service economy for the Chinese manufacturers and it was done deliberately.

Sad, wait till they eventually start flooding the US with their EV's. Elon isn't going to be a happy camper about that, even with all his business dealings in China.

 

[proveitwithdata]

will the influx of cheap evs end ice sales early?

 

[alarmguy]

will the influx of cheap evs end ice sales early?

No, Ice will always be the majority of sales in the USA unless a technology comes along that is just as convenient and cost effective.
EVs for the most part in mainstream America will be much like the golf carts in communities around America. If a family has one, they will be able to afford a mostly local knock around town type car. The main car will still be a larger ICE vehicle. Again, in most cases, of course we are a diverse group. Being the favored vehicle in much of America who can afford it, is a mid to large SUV type vehicle and that means ICE.

 

[demarpaint]

will the influx of cheap evs end ice sales early?

Great question, I'd imagine there are people in high places that would love to see that. Me I'd love to see them triple whatever tariffs they have on them or are considering.

 

[alarmguy]

Sad, wait till they eventually start flooding the US with their EV's.

I hope they do and soon, the more vehicles produced in China, the less money from my paycheck pays Americans to buy EVs produced in America. I get it, we voted for these rebates and being I am in the minority I can hope for more foreign cars to be imported and sold here. I dont want tariffs on anything including the devices we are using to post in this thread. Tariffs increase the cost of what we buy.

 

[demarpaint]

I hope they do and soon, the more vehicles produced in China, the less money from my paycheck pays Americans to buy EVs produced in America. I get it, we voted for these rebates and being I am in the minority I can hope for more foreign cars to be imported and sold here.

I respectfully agree with your paycheck part, but that's it. I hope they tax them to the point that no one touches one with a 10' pole, and their crap stays in China.

 

[alarmguy]

... I hope they tax them to the point that no one touches one with a 10' pole, and their crap stays in China.

Well, so far in the way I understand there are no plans for their vehicles here YET.
The rest of the world is a big place for cheap goods, our population is almost a spec on the world population map.

With that said, in a heartbeat Americans WILL buy them, just like we buy everything else, why would cars be different? They wont.
A very long time ago the same feelings were expressed about Japanese cars and I bet 85% or more in this forum owns one.
Price and quality rules, something China has pretty much got in control and why everyone in this forum is using Chinese made goods to communicate. It's why the second largest selling brand of vehicles in the USA is Toyota. People could care less where stuff comes from except a small percentage.

I honestly think Tesla will have problems in the USA because of this. I honestly think the Legacy makers which if I am correct you dont like? Yet I am a proponent as I think they will have a heads up producing ICE vehicles and will not be stuck competing against cheap EVs. Tesla at the current time does not have that flexibility. You have to remember, there is NO WHERE, NO FACTS at all that Americans are going to magically step back in time and give up their ICE vehicles for EVs that are using current battery powered technology..

However there WILL be a HUGE market for second family EV cars just as there are for family golf carts in communities around the USA. Not on Long Island where you live. But off Long Island, it's a different world in these beautiful communities. Where you golf cart from one amenity center to another, from one pool to the other, stuff like that. I can see EVs used for short range 1 hour road trips to wherever, shopping, beaches etc.

 

[demarpaint]

Well, so far in the way I understand there are no plans for their vehicles here YET.
The rest of the world is a big place for cheap goods, our population is almost a spec on the world population map.

With that said, in a heartbeat Americans WILL buy them, just like we buy everything else, why would cars be different? They wont.
A very long time ago the same feelings were expressed about Japanese cars and I bet 85% or more in this forum owns one.
Price and quality rules, something China has pretty much got in control and why everyone in this forum is using Chinese made goods to communicate.

Agreed! The operative word is YET.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I am afraid that deal is signed, sealed and done like almost everything else once made in this country, we have become a service economy for the Chinese manufacturers and it was done deliberately.

We did not get this way overnight and we will not change overnight. The question is, do we have the will to change?
My career was in Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, which is dominated, pretty much owned, by Silicon Valley companies.

I find it shocking all the posts here willing to throw in the towel. Many seem to be saying America cannot do it. I hope they are wrong.

 

[proveitwithdata]

We did not get this way overnight and we will not change overnight. The question is, do we have the will to change?
My career was in Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, which is dominated, pretty much owned, by Silicon Valley companies.

I find it shocking all the posts here willing to throw in the towel. Many seem to be saying America cannot do it. I hope they are wrong.

The issue is not throwing in the towel, the issue is which happens faster:

American corporations identify and solve the roadblocks in public acceptance of evs such as charging infrastructure, costs to build, and costs to buy an affordable ev or Foreign corporations unlimited budget running out to research, design, build, market, and sell these expensive ev trinkets that folks have a history of purchasing.