Tesla Stock

[alarmguy]

The whole EV concept is an idea that just hasn’t gotten to its’ time yet… Too many questions about electrical generation, the grid, rare earth & battery materials mining, battery lifespan, charging station availability, no Right To Repair. Most people who rushed in to buy an EV at top $ prices is realizing it may have been a mistake. ICE manufacturers who dabbled in & lost money in the EV space have other sales to fall back on. TSLA has no choice but to make EV work.

True but I think a REALLY bog sticking point is the price.
After all why would the masses purchase an EV in the first place? They like the idea of not paying for gasoline. SO we can assume saving money.
How can they save money as such crazy high prices for small cars and SUV's compared to gasoline?
The big selling point of EVs has been more to the enthusiasts and the enthusiast publications, they are a more affluent demographic and have many vehicles to rely on.

It's failing, even with taxpayer funding of 15 to 20% of the purchase price for some people. Though this year it's becoming more easy for people to get snarled into even longer loan rates with no money down as the $7,500 taxpayer gift can now be applied as a downpayment at the dealer. Even then, to the masses EV is inconvenient which agreeing with your post a significant amount of people will not buy one again.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Tesla is a Meme stock. Like AMC or whatever.

Its up 38% in days, based on:

An earnings report that said shipments were below expectations and cash flow turned negative. But never fear, there going to work on a cheaper Tesla. Never mind that no such vehicle yet exists and if it did it would also vulture sales of existing higher prices versions as well. They would need to sell 3X more of them than they did Model 3's to get back to even.

Then Elon makes a special trip to China, and all is well again. Trust me, the CCP does not do good will. If all is well again, what was given up?

It has nothing to do with valuation, or how many Toyota's its worth, or even the number of registrations in California. It may be a real stock to trade at some point, but currently its just a momentum trade. Trying to analyze it any other way is futile.

 

[alarmguy]

Tesla is a Meme stock. Like AMC or whatever.

Its up 38% in days, based on:

An earnings report that said shipments were below expectations and cash flow turned negative. But never fear, there going to work on a cheaper Tesla. Never mind that no such vehicle yet exists and if it did it would also vulture sales of existing higher prices versions as well. They would need to sell 3X more of them than they did Model 3's to get back to even.

Then Elon makes a special trip to China, and all is well again. Trust me, the CCP does not do good will. If all is well again, what was given up?

It has nothing to do with valuation, or how many Toyota's its worth, or even the number of registrations in California. It may be a real stock to trade at some point, but currently its just a momentum trade. Trying to analyze it any other way is futile.

Agree there is no foundation to the stock, never has been except in the growth phase for those that believed that growth would continue at break neck speed and sooner or later the price of the stock would be more in line with the PE. Now we have growth in contraction but traders and speculators and jumping in and out.
I wasnt going to comment but your post gave me the chance to say this. I keep hearing someone in here say the company is worth more than this and those "companies (other) combined" I say so what? It's meaningless if there is no foundation and why the stock is still down almost 50% from its high. I mean, gosh the numbers are amazing. Maybe Tesla will pull it off but the stock price is based on nothing but speculation and trading. This latest play may or may not last a while but I doubt it will by next earnings report. First thought in my mind was a huge short squeeze which traders lost a bundle.

Which brings me to bitcoin. My biggest regret in the market, I owned it around 7 or $8000. I still have some bits of it but jsut the remnants of what I owned once it climbed to around $11,000 I got scared and sold. In reality, the bitcoin has been far more reliable than Tesla's stock performance so far. Even though it gets trashed now and then, it goes on to make new highs. Im waiting for Tesla to that but the decline has been multi year for years now.
Just rambling on after my first few sips of coffee this morning. Much like bitcoin, buying it would have been a nice trade just last week, fleeting moment in my mind at the time. Like bitcoin, I wouldnt have the stomach for Tesla, though bitcoin seems more stable *LOL*
Im done with daily ups and downs, dont need it and dont want to lose what I have, my remaining years on earth will be carefree and investing in any one of the two above could turn that upside down. Not that its not fun to have more.

 

[DwightFrye]

I'm often irked when people repeat phases that sound cool but actually make no sense. One of those is "perception is reality" and another recent one that I see a lot is "two is one and one is none". I guess those people went to a school that taught outcome based education.

Anyway, in the case of Tesla's up and down valuation over the last 5 years and the stock market's fickleness in general, there may be some truth in the expression about perception is reality.

Regarding the price of the most popular Tesla's, yes $50 to $60k seems expensive. But then again I'd like to see figures showing average prices paid for all vehicles sold in a given recent year. It's pretty hard to spend less than that unless you are really on a very limited budget. And I don't agree that subsidies are needed or a good deal for the taxpayer. People are spending $80k for a pickup truck these days that never hauls anything more substantial than a couple of bags of fertilizer from the garden store.

However if & when Tesla does produce that sub $30k (oops...sorry, make that $35k in 2025 money) EV I have no doubt that it will sell like hotcakes and sell to people who can afford a more expensive car but will be happy to buy an EV for urban living and short commutes.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Agree there is no foundation to the stock, never has been except in the growth phase for those that believed that growth would continue at break neck speed and sooner or later the price of the stock would be more in line with the PE. Now we have growth in contraction but traders and speculators and jumping in and out.
I wasnt going to comment but your post gave me the chance to say this. I keep hearing someone in here say the company is worth more than this and those "companies (other) combined" I say so what? It's meaningless if there is no foundation and why the stock is still down almost 50% from its high. I mean, gosh the numbers are amazing. Maybe Tesla will pull it off but the stock price is based on nothing but speculation and trading. This latest play may or mayn't last a while but I doubt it will by next earnings report. First thought in my mind was a huge short squeeze which traders lost a bundle.

Which brings me to bitcoin. My biggest regret in the market, I owned it around 7 or $8000. I still have some bits of it but jsut the remnants of what I owned once it climbed to around $11,000. In reality, the bitcoin has been far more reliable than Tesla's stock performance so far. Even those it gets trashed now and then, it goes on to make new highs. Im waiting for Tesla to that but the decline has been multi year for years now.
Just rambling on after my first few sips of coffee this morning. Much like bitcoin, buying it would have been a nice trade just last week, fleeting moment in my mind at the time. Like bitcoin, I wouldnt have the stomach for Tesla, though bitcoin seems more stable *LOL*
Im done with daily ups and downs, dont need it and dont want to lose what I have, my remaining years on earth will be carefree and investing in any one of the two above could turn that upside down. Not that its not fun to have more.

Well stated. I actually just about bought some Tesla stock a few weeks ago - but not for the reason's of the last couple weeks. I think if Elon stays it might be a decent long term investment at the right price - for robots and AI, not cars. I actually thought it would get cheaper, because earnings would come in poor. And they did - but Elon Musk is the PT Barnum of our time - both genius and shyster at the same time. So its probably better that I do not own the stock.

As for Bitcoin - it makes a lot of sense except for the volatility. If there was median of exchange that people in countries that continue to devalue their money every year - like Argentina or Turkey or even Japan, then it would make a lot of sense. Problem is that it has become the same meme trade as everything else popular has become.

 

[alarmguy]

...

Regarding the price of the most popular Tesla's, yes $50 to $60k seems expensive. But then again I'd like to see figures showing average prices paid for all vehicles sold in a given recent year. It's pretty hard to spend less than that unless you are really on a very limited budget. And I don't agree that subsidies are needed or a good deal for the taxpayer. People are spending $80k for a pickup truck these days that never hauls anything more substantial than a couple of bags of fertilizer from the garden store.

However if & when Tesla does produce that sub $30k (oops...sorry, make that $35k in 2025 money) EV I have no doubt that it will sell like hotcakes and sell to people who can afford a more expensive car but will be happy to buy an EV for urban living and short commutes.

I would suggest almost compact same size cars to the general public are 20 to 30k less than that of the 50 to 60k you state.
Your feelings that subsides arent needed is misplaced. The vehicles are very price sensitive and why Tesla has reduced the price of the cars over time. IN fact whenever they need to move excess they reduce price. So $7,500 is a lot of money to the general population.
Heck the CEO of Tesla admits that interest rates kill him as well further stats that show price matters.
Ending subsides would be the end of the EV era. After all, except for enthusiasts who would buy them?

That $7,500 is part of the $4,000 Tesla makes on a car.

 

[alarmguy]

I missed the news, Monday Tesla sacked the entire 500 employee Supercharger Team. That is the entire team, including its executive.

 

[JeffKeryk]

You work the numbers to suit your argument and not very well at that. The real numbers are much different.


The Tesla Model Y recorded 1,211,601 registrations across 2023 the Toyota Corolla: 1,150,000 sales. Hardly "by far". Like I have said many times IMO you live in a fantasy land of your own making.

No, I live in a business world. Plus, your numbers are off.

Here's the Statista numbers showing 200K more. My point is, the Corolla is a high volume, low margin product and got beat by a high volume, high margin car. That's a critical business metric. Pretty impressive, right?

 

[JeffKeryk]

Tesla is a Meme stock. Like AMC or whatever.

Its up 38% in days, based on:

An earnings report that said shipments were below expectations and cash flow turned negative. But never fear, there going to work on a cheaper Tesla. Never mind that no such vehicle yet exists and if it did it would also vulture sales of existing higher prices versions as well. They would need to sell 3X more of them than they did Model 3's to get back to even.

Then Elon makes a special trip to China, and all is well again. Trust me, the CCP does not do good will. If all is well again, what was given up?

It has nothing to do with valuation, or how many Toyota's its worth, or even the number of registrations in California. It may be a real stock to trade at some point, but currently its just a momentum trade. Trying to analyze it any other way is futile.

TSLA is a roller coaster, no doubt. Tesla is more than a car company; it is a tech company. Like tech stocks, TSLA is volatile.

I disagree with "nothing to do with valuation". The market is all about valuation. A company's market value is a reflection of investors' perceptions of its business prospects. Now you can argue that any company is over valued or under valued, for sure. But the numbers are what they are. Valuation will fluctuate a great deal over periods of time and is heavily influenced over business cycles. Most of the Tesla opinions are reactionary (as is the market). Are layoffs good or bad? Layoffs show responsibility to the shareholders to do what is necessary in the C-Level's vision. That's their job.

When is the last time Toyota, who dwarfs every other car company, was even close to Tesla?
Where will Tesla, and others for that matter, be in 10 years? How the heck do I know?

 

[JeffKeryk]

When it comes to total assets on balance sheet Tesla doesnt even come close.

Top publicly traded automakers by total assets on balance sheet

List of the top automakers by total assets on balance sheet. A company's total assets includes all current and non-current assets, such as inventories, cash and cash equivalents, properties and equipment.

companiesmarketcap.com

Certainly; that's a different metric. This thread is titled, "Tesla Stock".
Regardless, kudos for reading the Balance Sheet; I'm impressed. Credit where credit is due.

 

[E365]

I missed the news, Monday Tesla sacked the entire 500 employee Supercharger Team. That is the entire team, including its executive.

That’s interesting (and dumb). Although I guess it is kind of a messy program now. They’re opening Superchargers to other brands, but the cords are WAY too short, so people will search out other options in busy areas. The V4 program has been a dud. They still don’t even exists, but have been promised for years. They only have the V4 dispensers up at some stations, not the actual V4 charging hardware. And to top it off, their new premier product, Cybertruck, charges faster at 350kW CCS1 public stations (Electrify America, etc.) than it does at their own charging network. I still find that hilarious.

I suppose that’s a downside of their early lead. They got locked into early hardware and it’s hard to change it all. Is that the team’s fault? I’d say no.

IONNA is hiring, I hope they snatch up a lot of these people.

Apparently Elon also today unfollowed a few of his paid sycophants on Twitter. I’m guessing they’re part of the layoffs.

 

[Trav]

No, I live in a business world. Plus, your numbers are off.

Here's the Statista numbers showing 200K more. My point is, the Corolla is a high volume, low margin product and got beat by a high volume, high margin car. That's a critical business metric. Pretty impressive, right?

Okay if you only want to consider one source that's fine, your source has Model Y at 1.15 million units and Corolla at 1.13 million units that is still not ahead by far as you claimed. Given the fact that Toyota sales are divided up between 71 different models sold globally vs 4 for Tesla the numbers for the Y are not impressive at all. Then there is this..

What is the demographic of people buying Tesla?


In the US, Tesla owners mostly live in California. They are majority white, with 87 percent of individuals identifying as Caucasian. Hedges & Company also finds that these owners are less likely to have kids in their homes. Around 66 percent of them don't have any kids at home.Jul 11, 2023

In actual assets Tesla is 13th on the list of car companies well behind the "big boys".

 

[JeffKeryk]

Okay if you only want to consider one source that's fine, your source has Model Y at 1.15 million units and Corolla at 1.13 million units that is still not ahead by far as you claimed. Given the fact that Toyota sales are divided up between 71 different models sold globally vs 4 for Tesla the numbers for the Y are not impressive at all. Then there is this..

In actual assets Tesla is 13th on the list of car companies well behind the "big boys".

Sure, Toyota is a much bigger car in global footprint, total sales in both units and dollars. Want to compare apples to apples? Break out the mighty Toyota's ICE vs EV numbers.

Regardless, this thread is about stock, which is what I am speaking to. Assets are a different metric completely and are reported as such.
A wise man once posted, "You work the numbers to suit your argument and not very well at that."

But let's look at assets, since you brought them up.
Toyota Motor Corp achieved a return on average invested assets (ROI) of 3.74 % in its fourth quarter of 2023.
Tesla Inc achieved a return on average invested assets (ROI) of 19.06 % in its first quarter of 2024.

 

[alarmguy]

No, I live in a business world. Plus, your numbers are off.

Here's the Statista numbers showing 200K more. My point is, the Corolla is a high volume, low margin product and got beat by a high volume, high margin car. That's a critical business metric. Pretty impressive, right?

What does this have to do with anything?
Could you post how many cars Toyota sold and how many cars Tesla sold?

Cherry picking specific models makes no sense

 

[alarmguy]

Sure, Toyota is a much bigger car in global footprint, total sales in both units and dollars. Want to compare apples to apples? Break out the mighty Toyota's ICE vs EV numbers.….

Both of them are 4 wheel vehicles
Both are in the business of making money on them.
It doesn’t matter matter what engine they use they are automobiles. So while we’re at it, let’s break out Tesla‘s ICE versus EV numbers.

Maybe it was poor product planning by Tesla not having a hybrid car because Elon Musk right now is complaining hybrid sales are affecting the sales of EV’s. This is fact what he said so poor planning has him with a one trick pony.

This appeared to ruffle Musk, who went so far as to blame the industry's newfound commitment to hybrids for some of Tesla's dismal earnings results last week.

"While positive for our regulatory credits business, we prefer the industry to continue pushing EV adoption, which is in line with our mission," Tesla wrote.

Source=

GM and Ford's gas-powered profits and hybrid successes show how hard it will be for Tesla to weather an EV slowdown

Companies like GM and Ford can rely on hybrids and gas-powered cars to get through the EV slowdown. Tesla can't do that.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[JeffKeryk]

What does this have to do with anything?
Could you post how many cars Toyota sold and how many cars Tesla sold?

Cherry picking specific models makes no sense

This thread is about Tesla stock.

 

[Trav]

This thread is about Tesla stock.

Sure but you made it into everything but.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Sure but you made it into everything but.

Only in response to posts like yours. Nice try, though.

 

[edyvw]

This thread is about Tesla stock.

You mean it is about fairytales?

 

[Trav]

Only in response to posts like yours. Nice try, though.

LOL