Tesla Stock

[DwightFrye]

To clarify my comment on gas prices in my area: I live in a mountain community of around 4000 people. It is not necessarily a wealthy community like many of those along the California coast. There are 4 gas stations in town. Two majors and two independents. One of the independents only sells 87 octane. My Jaguar requires 91 octane and my Mazda will run on 87 or 89 octane at the expense of the ECU cutting the horsepower down by close to 25 hp. So I run the 91 octane in it. And I only use Top Tier fuel so I don't shop at the independent stations.

However when I am "down the hill" I can buy ARCO, Exxon or Chevron 91 octane for as much as $0.90 less if I avoid the stations that are next to the freeway or intersections in busy shopping areas. So the high cost of fuel in my town is due to where it is. Plus the "consequence" of the winners of our elections determining that we need as high of gas taxes we have all the while having some of the worse roads in the country.

You all had better hope that "as California goes, so goes the Nation" doesn't happen because there are more and more people out there who think that "consequence" would be a good thing.

 

[demarpaint]

You all had better hope that "as California goes, so goes the Nation" doesn't happen because there are more and more people out there who think that "consequence" would be a good thing.

I can honestly say I don't know one person that thinks that would be a good thing. In fact aside from CA being a beautiful state that's about the only good thing we associate CA with. Time to hide.

 

[SC Maintenance]

You all had better hope that "as California goes, so goes the country" doesn't happen

Another fearmongering attempt.

Country hasn't been following California for 20 years. California minus silicone valley is in GDP decline. No one outside of California believes California leads anything anymore (again outside of Silicone Valley).

Much of the rest of the country is doing very well, especially the Southeast and Southwest, and many Midwest places also.

More fearmongering. You don't understand how oil markets even work.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Before you count out the state of California, remember we are the 5th largest economy in the world, by ourselves. The only bigger economies are the United States, China, Japan and Germany.

Sure, Silicon Valley is the world leader in high tech, but it is not the largest industry here.

1. Agriculture
2. Film and Television
3. Travel and Tourism (COVID hurt this industry just about everywhere but especially in CA)
4. Tech (Silicon Valley and beyond)
5. Services (education like University of CA, health care)

The 2 fastest growing industries are health care and construction. Opportunity abounds.

 

[demarpaint]

Before you count out the state of California, remember we are the 5th largest economy in the world, by ourselves. The only bigger economies are the United States, China, Japan and Germany.

Sure, Silicon Valley is the world leader in high tech, but it is not the largest industry here.

1. Agriculture
2. Film and Television
3. Travel and Tourism (COVID hurt this industry just about everywhere but especially in CA)
4. Tech (Silicon Valley and beyond)
5. Services (education like University of CA, health care)

The 2 fastest growing industries are health care and construction. Opportunity abounds.

And people are still hightailing it out of there, in record numbers. For reasons like high crime rates, the politics, the homeless, and the cost of living, to name a few.

 

[alarmguy]

….

You all had better hope that "as California goes, so goes the Nation" doesn't happen because there are more and more people out there who think that "consequence" would be a good thing.

California isn’t going anywhere, either is New York and either is Texas.
California has the highest GDP, but they also have the highest population so it would make sense that commerce will be higher.
Even though they’re losing pop, I think they have roughly 10,000,000 people more than any other state.

However, Texas exports exceed California and New York combined

Source;

Economy of Texas - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[ZeeOSix]

However when I am "down the hill" I can buy ARCO, Exxon or Chevron 91 octane for as much as $0.90 less if I avoid the stations that are next to the freeway or intersections in busy shopping areas. So the high cost of fuel in my town is due to where it is.

Same around here. All the small gas stations have much higher prices as you get farther out from the populated areas. Gas at a small station at the base of Mt. Rainier will be jacked up pretty high. When supply is sparse, price goes up and people will have to pay or run out of gas out in the middle of nowhere.

 

[cptbarkey]

To clarify my comment on gas prices in my area: I live in a mountain community of around 4000 people. It is not necessarily a wealthy community like many of those along the California coast. There are 4 gas stations in town. Two majors and two independents. One of the independents only sells 87 octane. My Jaguar requires 91 octane and my Mazda will run on 87 or 89 octane at the expense of the ECU cutting the horsepower down by close to 25 hp. So I run the 91 octane in it. And I only use Top Tier fuel so I don't shop at the independent stations.

However when I am "down the hill" I can buy ARCO, Exxon or Chevron 91 octane for as much as $0.90 less if I avoid the stations that are next to the freeway or intersections in busy shopping areas. So the high cost of fuel in my town is due to where it is. Plus the "consequence" of the winners of our elections determining that we need as high of gas taxes we have all the while having some of the worse roads in the country.

You all had better hope that "as California goes, so goes the Nation" doesn't happen because there are more and more people out there who think that "consequence" would be a good thing.

Shrug, thanks for talking for yourself vs the other odd enigmatic speak. Come down the hill more often would be my recommendation, dinosaur juice is still being sold in vast quantities.

 

[alarmguy]

I didnt mean for that last post to come out so large

 

[demarpaint]

I didnt mean for that last post to come out so large

It drives the point home.

 

[alarmguy]

Now @ $149 a share and 37 times earnings I will be interested if we one day get down to the $50 to $70 range $50 will put the P/E around the price of legacy automakers ... well, that might be premature, it could be worse than that once Tesla reports earnings on April 23rd after market closes. However if the earnings do not decline as much as the market is preparing for, who knows? The Stock can shoot up.

GM to announces April 23rd before market opens. I just picked up some GM stock this past week, a bit concerned because expectations are higher, meaning the market is expecting better than the already good forecast earnings. Im expecting very good earnings, we shall see...
I traded GM stock on and off the past year and had double digit returns, Im not long term because in 4+ decades GM still trades the same range maybe this time will be different says Charle Brown as Lucy holds that football. It would be nice to see it re-vist its high of Jan 2022.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Now @ $149 a share and 37 times earnings I will be interested if we one day get down to the $50 to $70 range $50 will put the P/E around the price of legacy automakers ... well, that might be premature, it could be worse than that once Tesla reports earnings on April 23rd after market closes. However if the earnings do not decline as much as the market is preparing for, who knows? The Stock can shoot up.

GM to announces April 23rd before market opens. I just picked up some GM stock this past week, a bit concerned because expectations are higher, meaning the market is expecting better than the already good forecast earnings. Im expecting very good earnings, we shall see...
I traded GM stock on and off the past year and had double digit returns, Im not long term because in 4+ decades GM still trades the same range maybe this time will be different says Charle Brown as Lucy holds that football. It would be nice to see it re-vist its high of Jan 2022.

TSLA will remain a volatile investment for many reasons; not the least of which is the market is reactionary to tech.

 

[alarmguy]

TSLA will remain a volatile investment for many reasons; not the least of which is the market is reactionary to tech.

I think that is part of the problem, shareholders looked at EVs as high tech and exclusive years back. They now see EVs as they are, another vehicle with a different motor. I suspect why it's down to 37 times earnings from 90 and price of the stock down 60+% ... that is more than volatile even in the tech industry, actually might signal the end of a tech company if it keeps floundering.

I think the only thing that might save them is robots, way off in the future, though I am sure China is working on those too. Their solar panel business is in the toilet, though their storage business doing well and right now, Musk really seems to be off the rails.
Meaning in investors eyes and the media, they lost their focus on far off projects and possibly a Musk fantasy that might be 5 or more years down the road.

Got me ... they need something and I think that something is a new board and new CEO. IT will be interesting to see if shareholders vote down the pay package for Musk. Even you have to admit, as much as you love the company, the company is not delivering on the expectations that they themselves told the public. That deserves to get the price slammed and Cathie Woods Art Fund *LOL*

Hey I might be a buyer of the stock when and IF it gets down to or near traditional P/E valuations of 5 to 15% on the hope that shareholders vote in a new board and get rid of Musk I think would be a benefit.

 

[demarpaint]

I think that is part of the problem, shareholders looked at EVs as high tech and exclusive years back. They now see EVs as they are, another vehicle with a different motor. I suspect why it's down to 37 times earnings from 90 and price of the stock down 60+% ... that is more than volatile even in the tech industry, actually might signal the end of a tech company if it keeps floundering.

I think the only thing that might save them is robots, way off in the future, though I am sure China is working on those too. Their solar panel business is in the toilet, though their storage business doing well and right now, Musk really seems to be off the rails.
Meaning in investors eyes and the media, they lost their focus on far off projects and possibly a Musk fantasy that might be 5 or more years down the road.

Got me ... they need something and I think that something is a new board and new CEO. IT will be interesting to see if shareholders vote down the pay package for Musk. Even you have to admit, as much as you love the company, the company is not delivering on the expectations that they themselves told the public. That deserves to get the price slammed.

I think you nailed it. At this point I bet there are a lot of people wishing TSLA traded like an automaker which it is, and not trade like a tech company. IMO the current path for TSLA is still down, especially with the Cyber Truck recall which is not an over the air flash.

 

[DwightFrye]

Or TSLA may remain moribund at around $150 per share. Until of course there is another gas crisis which could occur any time and until their other business divisions besides EV's start to generate revenue at enormous profit margins. Which I wouldn't count out even though they may be on Elon Time.

And if/when that happens, once again it won't matter what Tesla's P/E ratio is as an automaker as investors will also be looking at what else Tesla as a corporation is doing with regards to profits. Remember, the subject of this very lengthy thread is Tesla Stock.
That is all inclusive and not just focused on their stock value with regards to their EV production.

Concerning the Cybertruck, they are recalling 3878 vehicles due to an issue with the accelerator pedal having possible interference with the floor mat. Two things come to mind: First, is that the issue is inexcusable, that kind of safety issue came up before with the unintended acceleration problem that Toyotas had and you'd think Tesla's engineers wouldn't release a brainless design like that. And of course it can't be fixed with an over the air update. And second, Tesla has delivered 3878 Cybertrucks. That's not a bad number considering what it is.

However that is NOTHING like the recent recall by Ford of over 456,000 Broncos and Mavericks because the engines may lose power while driving. That is absolutely unbelievable for an automaker that has been in business for over 110 years, and the cost of that recall is going to be huge. Gives one a lot of confidence in Ford's ability to manufacture ANY kind of vehicle doesn't it ?
How well will Ford be poised to capture a significant portion of the EV market when the demand spikes again ?

I'll be holding my TSLA shares for a while.

 

[SC Maintenance]

And if/when that happens, once again it won't matter what Tesla's P/E ratio is as an automaker as investors will also be looking at what else Tesla as a corporation is doing with regards to profits.

Honest question - if Elon leaves will you still feel this way?

I ask for a specific reason. Elon was owed $56B in Tesla stock per his contract. The stock would be locked up for 5 years - ie he couldn't sell it for that period. Elon currently owns about 22% of Tesla, and with that would own about 27% I think? Elon has said he wants to develop AI and robots at Tesla, but only if he owns 25% so he has some control, but not total control.

If they don't give him the $56B or 25%, I think he might leave. Why stay - he owns spaceX, he owns Twitter. He owns $100B of Tesla stock at current pricing. If he started a AI company the VC's would line up around the block to fund it. I would buy into that venture - but I doubt it will be public.

If they give him $56B in stock, I might actually buy TSLA at its current price. Without Elon I wouldn't touch it. I realize I am in the minority here with that opinion.

 

[alarmguy]

...

And if/when that happens, once again it won't matter what Tesla's P/E ratio is as an automaker as investors will also be looking at what else Tesla as a corporation is doing with regards to profits. Remember, the subject of this very lengthy thread is Tesla Stock.
That is all inclusive and not just focused on their stock value with regards to their EV production.

Concerning the Cybertruck, they are recalling 3878 vehicles due to an issue with the accelerator pedal having possible interference with the floor mat. ...

Two things,
1. Their solar panel operations are doing terrible and energy storage business doing very well but a needle in the haystack as far as adding value to the company at the stock price.

2. The accelerator issue is do to the faceplate coming off and catching the carpet. Meaning, the glue or whatever they used to secure the faceplate to the accelerator pedal was no good. I dont blame them for having a recall though, all companies have them.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Honest question - if Elon leaves will you still feel this way?

I ask for a specific reason. Elon was owed $56B in Tesla stock per his contract. The stock would be locked up for 5 years - ie he couldn't sell it for that period. Elon currently owns about 22% of Tesla, and with that would own about 27% I think? Elon has said he wants to develop AI and robots at Tesla, but only if he owns 25% so he has some control, but not total control.

If they don't give him the $56B or 25%, I think he might leave. Why stay - he owns spaceX, he owns Twitter. He owns $100B of Tesla stock at current pricing. If he started a AI company the VC's would line up around the block to fund it. I would buy into that venture - but I doubt it will be public.

If they give him $56B in stock, I might actually buy TSLA at its current price. Without Elon I wouldn't touch it. I realize I am in the minority here with that opinion.

That's the right question. All the arm chair Chairmen around here think he should go, but I am not sure of their business background. Short term results and thinking is for middle management, not C Level management.
Businesses have a life cycle, just like everyone and everything. There are ups and downs. Successes and failures.
In business we say, if your wins out do your losses, you are on the right track. There is no straight line growth curve!

Tech companies are highly volatile. Look at corporation market cap ranking; it is dominated by tech and all have been in trouble.
In the early 90's it was thought Apple's future was pretty bleak.

What does the future hold for Tesla? Have they made huge mistakes? Heck yeah; in 2018 Musk's highly robotic mfg lines nearly ended the company. The Cybertruck, IMO, seems like a crazy life style vehicle or even a bad joke.

Remember before 2021 Tesla was still sure to go belly up any day now? Gee, sure wish I woulda invested then.
Musk might be the best known and most watched man in the world. Interesting times ahead.

 

[alarmguy]

…

However that is NOTHING like the recent recall by Ford of over 456,000 Broncos and Mavericks because the engines may lose power while driving. That is absolutely unbelievable for an automaker that has been in business for over 110 years, and the cost of that recall is going to be huge. Gives one a lot of confidence in Ford's ability to manufacture ANY kind of vehicle doesn't it ?

Recalls are pretty common, no one’s been injured in the Ford instance and to the best of my knowledge nobody’s been injured in the cyber truck accelerator pedal sticking lol

Both cases easy fix, I’ve never owned either brand

 

[Torrid]

Recalls are pretty common, no one’s been injured in the Ford instance and to the best of my knowledge nobody’s been injured in the cyber truck accelerator pedal sticking lol

Both cases easy fix, I’ve never owned either brand

AKA crap happens. I just got a recall for a fuel tank suction pump for my GTI. Some have had venting issues fueling making the fuel pump filler to pressurize and constantly kick off. I've luckily not had this issue, but at some point there will be new parts. Of course regarding fuel there's the fire risk warning on the paperwork. I haven't heard about any related GTI fires. It seems to me most manufacturers take a lot of care to almost overreact to fix an issue because they do not want anyone to get hurt. These fire risks and throttle pedal issues do sound alarming. At least they take it seriously.