+1 Crushing it! I had a good laugh when I read it. A more appropriate line would have been an increase in units sold. That doesn't move a stock price though. FTR I agree with all your other points too.
Tesla Q2 Deliveries crushes estimates
- Thread starter JeffKeryk
- Start date
Not here to argue. Proceeds to rattle off another argument.
No one is telling you to buy an EV. You’re taking this way too personally and I can’t figure out why. Let people enjoy their things while you enjoy yours. If they suck in the end those people will realize it. What you fail to understand is many don’t need to tow or constantly drive long distances. Long distances isn’t hard in an EV anyway so that’s also a weird argument. People also aren’t daily driving 40 year old cars regularly. That’s a novelty for collector cars and if you don’t think there will be a market for collector types of EVs that’s a bit weird. Old cars tend to be finicky no matter what they’re powered by and I won’t rely on them for my driving requirements since I am outside the norm and do commute farther than 95% of drivers. It’s part of why when small good ICE cars die off I will buy an EV. It’s been the first segment to die off for years. I’ll likely keep buying stuff like the GTI as long as they’re available. It’s not because I don’t like EVs, it’s because it’s hard to beat the driving dynamics but the general population doesn’t care about that and good affordable cars are dying for inefficient terrible boxes on wheels. The next best thing at this point in my mind are EV cars.
In all fairness to the conversation Jeff, in your OP you brought the stock price into the discussion which in itself may imply profits for those who invested. Just like any stock or Bitcoin for that matter when buying a speculative investment there are ups and downs of severe magnitudes. Tesla and Bitcoin are one of them. It's fun to talk about them on a personal level but impossible in general public, people dont understand unrealized gains and losses.
So it's valid to think some people who bought any product like this got wiped out, even more so if they bought on margin or options.
Tesla to me is a great gamble, no different than bitcoin, yes I wish and almost bought Tesla at $110 a share seen that a year back but you cant figure out a stock selling at 100s more expensive multiples than its competition. I also thought about buying Tesla a long time back, if I did then I would still be the red or breaking even or a small profit in that respect the risk is huge compared to the reward.
Also when talking about Tesla in general, it lost money for ten years before a tiny profit in 2021 or 22 mostly due to carbon credits on top of it. SO why so little patience when a legacy maker isnt making a profit on its EVs? Who cares? It's convenient to narrow down the product Tesla produces and compare to other companies but those companies produce far more variety, in this case ICE vehicles which Tesla does not and they are profitable.
Ive been saying it forever. ANY long term investment of stock selling 100s times more expensive than its more established peers with far, far greater variety and model line up is very dangerous.
Im saying that because right in this thread someplace someone is asking where the people who knocked the stock are now? As he bought 6 months ago, making a killing, yes, he is, its a great short term play but its just as risky that it can go down from 80 times earnings to the industry average of 10 times earnings for long term investors. I wonder if he knows bitcoin went up almost as much YTD.
AS you know. I think the stock has major problems coming their way in 3 years (at most)... but that does not matter, any stock selling at multiples of its peers (in retail no less) is risky, there are 1000s of stocks out there we all invest in our own style. I mean, gosh I have some small bitcoin I bought over ten years ago when it was $7000, do I care it went to $50,000 and back to 20,000? no, its just a tiny fraction of my investment, heck so tiny I pay zero attention to it. In fact I have to check and make sure its still there *LOL* now that I think of it.
I have another more stable coin on a hard drive that I have been dragging my feet getting it off the drive so I can throw the computer away, but even if I did, its important to know you only invest small amounts of money in risky adventures and 80 times earnings is risky in a field of 10 times earnings.
Talking about any range of stocks at any time, all depends on what risk you will take. I take risk in one Roth that I have. Right now invested in only two companies for the entire value of my Roth before that some TMUS, WFC, (SCHW for a day trade). I made money on them all and have been beating market averages for a long time now. So even though it is considered risky. I look at it as solid companies much like a mutual fund. Low risk, low reward but better than typical mutual funds. I do like to spice it up, like I said, Tesla at 110 would have been a great play, yet so would these other companies.
PS, I have been in Walmart since it was below $100 a share years back, now $150's and now 6 weeks ago 50% in GM at $33 now $39 for almost a nice 20% unrealized gain. I wouldnt be able to buy Tesla at $278 and be secure that I wouldnt lose a significant amount of money, where GM all it can do is go back to $33. which is my starting point.
BTW there are a lot of short term stars this year, here are the top ten. (this is for that other poster person)
The biggest gain is Caravana
https://money.usnews.com/investing/slideshows/best-performing-stocks-of-the-year
What I would say to that other person in here that has the YTD gain is, on any stock, it all depends on what category forum you are in. Many good to great companies out there for those looking to be conservative and for those looking for risk. He did good and sold off some of his gain which is a smart move in a risky stock, though I dont do it.
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I don't see any comparison between Bitcoin and TSLA. Tesla actually manufactures products and that also includes items other than EV;s plus their coming profits from software licensing.they are not a "vaporware" company like all of those that were a house of cards duing the so called dot com boom where dumb a** investors lost their shirts.
Tesla has continued to grow every quarter and has continued to show a profit every quarter now for several years. As far as the stock having a major problem in three years or less, the only way I see that happening is if something catastrophic happens. If they continue to grow at even half the rate they have over the last 5 years, and continue to be anywhere close to as profitable, they should continue to be a strong stock. If they actually do meet some of the projections that some analysts who actually understand Tesla say, they should prove to be a very, very valuable stock.
We'll see. I know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. I'm holding.
Tesla has continued to grow every quarter and has continued to show a profit every quarter now for several years. As far as the stock having a major problem in three years or less, the only way I see that happening is if something catastrophic happens. If they continue to grow at even half the rate they have over the last 5 years, and continue to be anywhere close to as profitable, they should continue to be a strong stock. If they actually do meet some of the projections that some analysts who actually understand Tesla say, they should prove to be a very, very valuable stock.
We'll see. I know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. I'm holding.
Agree, when saying comparison I was using an analogy to bitcoin because bitcoin price has been as stable as Tesla.
In addition there is validity in comparing vehicle makers to each other which Tesla is and depending on point of view, one would wonder why and see the "vaporware" in Tesla for its extremely limited line of EVs yet the company sells at currently 80 times earnings and its peers 6 to 12 times earnings. Yet its peers are going to be selling the same product Tesla is with MUCH much greater variety and better out of the box experience
It's just a car, nothing more. Tesla is the kid on the block with the new engine, its really nothing as the future is going to show.
Actually it is starting to show with Tesla constantly losing market share and the legacy makers are only at the tip of the iceberg producing the same product.
I REALLY have nothing against them but its just a car, flavor of the day going up against giants, reminds me of the jeans in the 1970's and 80's new brand and style comes out, everyone copies it and the company that came out with it fades away. I dont think Tesla will fade away they will end up at a 15 to 20 times multiple and I think that is generious. But what do I know? Nothing but thoughts like everyone else.
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I know the comparison has been made before but it's the iPhone approach. The options are limited, but that almost is the perk. Instead of cutting a bunch of corners, it's more of the "do you want it or not?" It takes some of the guess work out of it. That could turn off some buyers, sure. I also think for a lot it just simplifies things and that's considered a positive. For me I'll get deep in the weeds on anything I like and I'll take the time to learn about it. I don't think that's the most common approach and most people buy cars because of how it looks and driving it is second. I think that explains the whole car market in general and while there are popular cars that do have good driving dynamics, that's secondary to the reason why they sell well. If people actually cared about how it actually felt to manipulate a vehicle I think we'd see a much different market. I think that's why speciality vehicles keep a small presence no matter how strongly the buyers of those cars love them. Obviously I'm one of the odd ones out that love enthusiast cars and still like Tesla, so they seem to be hitting that one size fits all for a number of people. If all they made was crossovers I wouldn't have any interest and to be honest in this market I'm surprised the Model 3 sells like it does, although it is outpaced by the Y because of course it would be.
Yeah, but the iPhone is the same as other cell phones. Tesla does not make what the other legacy makers make, larger SUVs and Trucks, so unless they expand their lineup, which they may, the legacy makers will have rolling billboards for their SUVs all over the road and Tesla will be the small car maker. So the iPhone thing to me isnt valid.
Just like your GTI, I always loved that car, still do but the public in general drives larger SUVs and Trucks and beside that, GTI size EVs are coming at Tesla too.
Without question (I'm a gadget person, actually for decades the go to person for electronics among anyone who knows me) I FULLY understand the appeal that people see in Tesla. But that isnt mainstream America which honestly could care less other than give it to me right now and get me the loan. For many of them, that means driving down the block to the local dealer with their old car and driving out with the new. I do find that sad but true, as a people, they hamstring themselves to a life of debt.
If you re-read what I wrote you'll see what I mean. The term "Crushed" did in fact move the price up, which imo was the intent of the headline.
Well in fairness that is the price that Tesla was on June 20th too. So a 24 point move on July 3rd wasnt ground breaking it was going back to its previous high a couple weeks back. @demarpaint It's a stock that speculators use for day and short term trading. Leg up and everyone jumps in. Doesn't matter the news but granted the news is the excuse to buy, hold or sell on an equity with a P/E of 80 in an industry norm of 6 to 12.
From May 20th to June 20th was an 80 point gain also huge
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TSLA is a roller coaster. When there is a runup, some investors will take profits and then buy the dip.
Not my strategy, but a common one with TSLA.
Not my strategy, but a common one with TSLA.
Not only investors, but even more pervasive is AI trading platforms of huge corporate trading rooms but that goes for just about every stock on the exchange.
And, yet there's this nugget, when Tesla was also "crushing it."
Since this was posted exactly 3 years ago, July 2020, Tesla (adjusted 3 for 1 stock split) is at 280 and down 35% from 400+, in spite of selling 5 times as many cars. And had one believed the WRONG analysists in 2020 expecting a adjusted price of that estimate has been missed by a factor of about 4 (price should be, according to 'expert predictions,' around 650-700. Instead today it's 280, about 40% of this target (missing this target by about 60%) based on IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE. Had you bought TSLA stock based on this hogwash, you'd have lost 35% of your money.
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This is not directed at any person on this forum, to be clear, but a critical person asks why TSLA stock price fails to match their production numbers. IOW, why at 5x production is the stock price down 35% in 3 years?
Since this was posted exactly 3 years ago, July 2020, Tesla (adjusted 3 for 1 stock split) is at 280 and down 35% from 400+, in spite of selling 5 times as many cars. And had one believed the WRONG analysists in 2020 expecting a adjusted price of that estimate has been missed by a factor of about 4 (price should be, according to 'expert predictions,' around 650-700. Instead today it's 280, about 40% of this target (missing this target by about 60%) based on IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE. Had you bought TSLA stock based on this hogwash, you'd have lost 35% of your money.
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This is not directed at any person on this forum, to be clear, but a critical person asks why TSLA stock price fails to match their production numbers. IOW, why at 5x production is the stock price down 35% in 3 years?
Not directed at you, but why should anyone listen to anyone talking about a stock they themselves missed every opportunity on in every direction?
All kinds of guys said to not but the stock but since inception its yielded a 21,000% gain.
I disagree with the direct IPhone analogy. While they are both tech companies, most people need a phone and anyone with even a simple job can afford an (albeit overpriced) Iphone. An Iphone allows people to also have a camera, music player, and mini-computer, etc. so it's arguably not a bad deal price-wise, given all that these little powerhouses accomplish. An Iphone, to an extent, is a need. Rather, a cellular phone is a need for most, so the leap to an Iphone is not large. It is a minor purchase. And most people use a phone constantly throughout the day, for calls, texts, social media, internet, camera, work, etc. and develop a very intimate relationship with their device, so splurging is sensible for most.
Apple has done something remarkable with pocket computing. It created products people needed and liked at prices most can afford. Market share is something like 50% of all cellular phones and about 80% of phones over $1000. It was a front runner, it pioneered certain computing abilities, and the interface is widely liked.
Also, Apple has been working these brand-loyal customers for at least 4 decades, with the MAC, and certainly since the early 2000s with the IPOD and IPAD and other ecosystem products. So Apple has decades of head-start on Tesla, answering problems with solutions that people need, can afford, and enjoy. IOW, Apple has solved computing, phone, music, and camera problems in sleek and affordable packaged products that nearly everyone can use and afford.
Tesla, and EVs, won't achieve that for decades, if ever. It does not really answer any real-world needs, it's not really better than ICE in any notable category for most people (90%+), e.g. it's a niche expensive product considered a luxury item by most, and practically nobody can afford one. And, it has no ecosystem (and won't for a decade or more), and is barely getting started yet at 5%, it will reach market saturation (price, geography, owner profile) probably around 10%.... Overall EV users, which Tesla will ultimately share with all other auto makers.
Cars are major purchases. Almost nobody can truly afford a new car, yet many do out of perceived necessity. Most finance cars. That is reflected by the fact most new vehicles sold, are utility vehicles of some type (truck, SUV, or light commuter car). Anyone being honest about Teslas, recognizes these are not "needs," they are secondary "wants" as demonstrated by the pure fact nearly all owners also own a ICE. Nobody needs a Tesla, and Tesla is a niche luxury item for most.
Remember: About 65% of Americans are broke: 43 MILLION living in poverty, 43 MILLION on food stamps, 65 MILLION on Medicare, 85 MILLION on Medicaid, 60 MILLION retirees, Americans have crippling debts including $1.8 TRILLION in student loans, $1.3 TRILLION in credit card debts, 28 MILLION without insurance, etc.
US is negative 25% trade deficit, and $33 TRILLION in national debt with many states fighting bankruptcy. Banks going under left and right, commercial real estate collapsing, 110,000 current foreclosures...
Who, exactly, is going to continue buying luxury cars in the future?
Luxury items are the first to go in a bad economy, which we are in. With projections to be worse.
Apple has done something remarkable with pocket computing. It created products people needed and liked at prices most can afford. Market share is something like 50% of all cellular phones and about 80% of phones over $1000. It was a front runner, it pioneered certain computing abilities, and the interface is widely liked.
Also, Apple has been working these brand-loyal customers for at least 4 decades, with the MAC, and certainly since the early 2000s with the IPOD and IPAD and other ecosystem products. So Apple has decades of head-start on Tesla, answering problems with solutions that people need, can afford, and enjoy. IOW, Apple has solved computing, phone, music, and camera problems in sleek and affordable packaged products that nearly everyone can use and afford.
Tesla, and EVs, won't achieve that for decades, if ever. It does not really answer any real-world needs, it's not really better than ICE in any notable category for most people (90%+), e.g. it's a niche expensive product considered a luxury item by most, and practically nobody can afford one. And, it has no ecosystem (and won't for a decade or more), and is barely getting started yet at 5%, it will reach market saturation (price, geography, owner profile) probably around 10%.... Overall EV users, which Tesla will ultimately share with all other auto makers.
Cars are major purchases. Almost nobody can truly afford a new car, yet many do out of perceived necessity. Most finance cars. That is reflected by the fact most new vehicles sold, are utility vehicles of some type (truck, SUV, or light commuter car). Anyone being honest about Teslas, recognizes these are not "needs," they are secondary "wants" as demonstrated by the pure fact nearly all owners also own a ICE. Nobody needs a Tesla, and Tesla is a niche luxury item for most.
Remember: About 65% of Americans are broke: 43 MILLION living in poverty, 43 MILLION on food stamps, 65 MILLION on Medicare, 85 MILLION on Medicaid, 60 MILLION retirees, Americans have crippling debts including $1.8 TRILLION in student loans, $1.3 TRILLION in credit card debts, 28 MILLION without insurance, etc.
US is negative 25% trade deficit, and $33 TRILLION in national debt with many states fighting bankruptcy. Banks going under left and right, commercial real estate collapsing, 110,000 current foreclosures...
Who, exactly, is going to continue buying luxury cars in the future?
Luxury items are the first to go in a bad economy, which we are in. With projections to be worse.
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Personally I've done OK with my investment in TSLA. Over 100% gain and expecting more. If I didn't expect more, I would sell now, right?
Sometimes I post things like: Teslas are only for rich California granola heads. Tesla will collapse and go belly up any day now. They will never sell 20,000 cars in a year. Wait till the big boys to get in.
Not so long ago, those things were true, or believed to be true by everyone, including me. And I bought a Model 3!
Well, everyone was wrong.
The average closing price for Tesla (TSLA) in 2015 was $15.34. It was up 7.7% for the year; not bad.
Earlier than that, Tesla was burning through cash and analysts wondered if the Model S would ever see the light of day.
Today if TSLA lost half its valuation, it would still be far bigger than any other car company. Tesla is more valuable than what, the next 12+ car companies combined?
Sometimes I post things like: Teslas are only for rich California granola heads. Tesla will collapse and go belly up any day now. They will never sell 20,000 cars in a year. Wait till the big boys to get in.
Not so long ago, those things were true, or believed to be true by everyone, including me. And I bought a Model 3!
Well, everyone was wrong.
The average closing price for Tesla (TSLA) in 2015 was $15.34. It was up 7.7% for the year; not bad.
Earlier than that, Tesla was burning through cash and analysts wondered if the Model S would ever see the light of day.
Today if TSLA lost half its valuation, it would still be far bigger than any other car company. Tesla is more valuable than what, the next 12+ car companies combined?
Why bother spending time talking on an internet forum, at all, then?
I was a licensed stock broker in the irrational exuberance of the dot com bust. Throw a dart and become a millionaire. I saw a lot of people lose fortunes.
I'm not offering stock advice, just talking about how foolish people are. Tesla has IMO an unsustainable profit/earnings ratio with a very small finite and fickle consumer base. I just cited EXPERTS from 3 years ago who were off on TSLA stock predictions by a factor of 4... so much for "crushing it."
For every company that has these (irrational exuberant based) stock returns, there are thousands that failed. For example, in a similar EV thread months ago, I did the research and posted the performance of the top 10 EV and support companies, Nikola, batteries, solar, etc. and showed they are all down massively in stock price, demonstrating the industry is struggling. I recall the average performance was off by between 50-95% 1-year but you can go look that up.
I've heard it all before.
We had a financial client at my brokerage house, who made his fortune ($55,000,000 IIRC which I'm pretty sure is right) on MCI Worldcom and Level III communications. MCI was a juggernaught in telecommunications, 2nd only to ATT, and it was, in the 90s, inconceivable it could fail. Level III was an industry leader as well, 3rd largest fiber optics company in the US. This guy had an empire. I, and others, begged him to diversify his holdings and he'd scoff every time, like what is some 9-5 stock broker going to educate him on! ? Both went belly up in a hurry in the end of the era I think around 2001, following the market collapses. We watched these stocks fall like boulders in the ocean. Down, down, down, and down more. I remember the day he finally sold it all. I think he cashed out his account when it reached 1/2 million bucks. I still get a good chuckle about that one, someone who got lucky with some stock picks and thought he knew it all, but with more money than brains to listen to others.
One thing you learn, everything can fail. And it does with alarmingly high rates. Mismanagement, scams, bad luck, disruptive technology, wars, industry collapse, etc. Even the giants fall. Polaroid, Pan Am, KMart, Sears Roebuck, Swiss Air, Blockbuster, Circuit City, Woolworths, DeLorean, Edison Records, Enron, Washington Mutual, Wachovia bank, the Titanic, etc. how about Bernie Madoff? Or Sam Bankman? Scams. Just like EVs. LOL.
The lesson, especially for companies that are based almost entirely on fads, like Tesla is a virtue signaling fad for rich people, is that they can go belly up fast.
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Sure, it's possible. But right now Tesla is the leader by far, right? And everyone has been pretty wrong so far, right?
In the 1st half of this year, Tesla captured 60% of the US EV market, no one else was remotely close.
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IMO not only possible, but likely. Not stock advice: It's unsustainable IMO. Telsa is grossly overvalued PE (it is 3x higher than Apple, Inc, which is the wealthiest company in the world!!!! - let that sink in. Apple is worth 3 TRILLION bucks, versus Tesla's 800 billion dollars. Yet Tesla somehow has a PE 3x better than Apple?! Ford and GM and Toyota are 1/10th EPS as Tesla... That is irrational) and is facing massive hurdles in technology, commerce, supply chains, war in Asia with China, war with Russia, a collapsing dollar in the near future as the world shifts to BRICS, and a growing poverty class in America who cannot afford them, along with failing to produce a product most people need or can afford or live in an area it can be used year-round. It's not produced a truck and all indications is it cannot produce a real truck, but 6 of 10 top vehicles are trucks, and the other 2 are truck platform SUVs. Subsidies will likely go away. And competition is just a few steps behind. It's not a magical vehicle, it's very replicatable and will be.
If demand was not peaking, one would expect 50% Q over Q increases. 5% increase tells me demand has peaked, given how young the company is. That is called a plateau. Hence why the stock price is still off all time highs (at 90k units), by 35%....
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