Tesla Q2 Deliveries crushes estimates

[UncleDave]

Why bother spending time talking on an internet forum, at all, then?

I was a licensed stock broker in the irrational exuberance of the dot com bust. Throw a dart and become a millionaire. I saw a lot of people lose fortunes.

I'm not offering stock advice, just talking about how foolish people are. Tesla has IMO an unsustainable profit/earnings ratio with a very small finite and fickle consumer base. I just cited EXPERTS from 3 years ago who were off on TSLA stock predictions by a factor of 4... so much for "crushing it."

For every company that has these (irrational exuberant based) stock returns, there are thousands that failed. For example, in a similar EV thread months ago, I did the research and posted the performance of the top 10 EV and support companies, Nikola, batteries, solar, etc. and showed they are all down massively in stock price, demonstrating the industry is struggling. I recall the average performance was off by between 50-95% 1-year but you can go look that up.

Experts have been getting the stock wrong from day 1.

If someone here followed your opinion at the beginning of the year they'd have missed 155% gain year to date. I missed it as did you.

I got it wrong- I bought in at 50 and punched out at 250 then it skyrocket and split.


You got it wrong.
You missed out on every move both up and down and made nothing when others made fortunes.
How can you or we take the position you got this right when they went from 0 to the most valuable car company in the world while you basically bet against this happening the whole time?

 

[Astro14]

Apple just hit $3T in market cap. The top 10 are dominated by tech. Only Saudi Aramco (3) and Berkshire Hathaway (8) are non-Tech. Tesla is #7 and is the only auto company. The next is Toyota at #44. Tesla is valued higher than the next 10 car companies combined.

Watch out world! The market believes in what you are doing and where you are going. The others? Well, the numbers speak for themselves.

Does the market actually believe?

If that’s the case, the market believed in Dutch tulips and the South Sea Company.

There is always an element of speculation, FOMO, and hype in market valuation.

Let’s consider that TSLA has yet to get close to the peak of $400 from the fall of 2021.

Further, Schwab margin requirements for TSLA are more restrictive than for other equities.

So, no, the market doesn’t believe. Right now, the speculators and believers believe.

At a PE of over 80, TSLA is still overpriced. Not quite as much as Tulips, but overpriced all the same.

 

[leadcounsel]

Experts have been getting the stock wrong from day 1.

If someone here followed your opinion at the beginning of the year they'd have missed 155% gain year to date. I missed it as did you.

I got it wrong- I bought in at 50 and punched out at 250 then it skyrocket and split.


You got it wrong.
You missed out on every move both up and down and made nothing when others made fortunes.
How can you or we take the position you got this right when they went from 0 to the most valuable car company in the world while you basically bet against this happening the whole time?

You assume you know my investments, risk strategies, and my investing philosophy, and where I park my resources. You don't.

I have done far, far better on my bets, decisions, risks, investments, than you've just illuminated on TSLA.

 

[leadcounsel]

At a PE of over 80, TSLA is still overpriced.

This is a key point so many overlook, one I've made before, and above, and needs repeating.

If Tesla is a tech company, contrast it with Apple which has been a dominant force for 4 decades, industry leader for 2 decades, worth $3 TRILLION dollars. Apple's PE is about $32. Tesla a infant, non-dominant tech company, worth 1/4th of Apple, that relies on many more supply chains, is nearly 2.5x that! Tesla is 2x higher than IBM or MSFT PE ratios, again both dominant industry legacy leaders. That is crazy.

If TSLA is a auto company, it's even more bananas, considering the legacy giants Ford, GM, and Toyota all have PEs around 10% of Tesla's.

If Tesla's PE ratio was more in line with tech, or more appropriately autos, or a 20/80 ratio, the PE and stock prices, and market cap, would be knee-capped.

 

[UncleDave]

You assume you know my investments, risk strategies, and my investing philosophy, and where I park my resources. You don't.

I have done far, far better on my bets, decisions, risks, investments, than you've just illuminated on TSLA.

I have no idea what your other endeavors were or yielded or claim to.

I only know you didn't get this one right.

 

[leadcounsel]

I only know you didnt get this one right.

But... I have gotten it right by the time I started paying serious attention to it, circa late 2019. It's a short term day-trade stock that is highly speculative and has lost more than it's gained since then...

Having been in the industry as a professional, I have gained wisdom and don't day-trade speculative stocks, because day traders lose more than they gain, including short term capital gains. TSLA is a risky bet. For me to even consider a risky short run on a stock, I have to expect higher than say 30% short term return to make the possible loses worth the risk.

A quick review of TSLA stock proves me right. One would have had to time the market perfectly to hit 30% gains (remember those capital gains folks!), and that has occurred only 30%+ gains THREE times since 2020. Yet it has also had FOUR price drops greater than 30% in this time frame, that have been larger than the gains. Hence, leaving investors holding the bag since 2020-2021 with a stock 35% off the highs. Most long term investors in this period are either losers or barely winning.

If you timed the ups correctly, and sold, you'd have 3 periods of gains but you'd pay capital gains taxes on them so the gains would be commensurately smaller. Weigh those risks, against the probable 4 big drops in the stock prices in the same periods. Other than the impossible task of perfect timing, investors since 2020 are largely under water. Going back 3 years, there were only 2 time frames one could have bought and held, and be in the black today: 3 months in the summer 2021 and about 7 months between summer 2022 - early 2023. Any other buy/hold from Jan 2021 over the last 2.5 years, and the investor is under water, eg the majority of the time since 1/2021...

I have better investments for my resources.

(Edited to clarify wording)

 

[Brons2]

geez just close this thread, nine pages of bloviation both pro and anti Tesla. Tesla beat estimates. They delivered a lot more cars than last year. That's it. This thread is a waste of bandwidth. I was going to read it all but I got bored after 2 pages.

For the record, I am pro-EV, but I would not agree with any of the adjectives used to discuss these results.

 

[UncleDave]

But... I have gotten it right by the time I started paying serious attention to it, circa late 2019. It's a short term day-trade stock that is highly speculative and has lost more than it's gained since then...

Having been in the industry as a professional, I have gained wisdom and don't day-trade speculative stocks, because day traders lose more than they gain, including short term capital gains. TSLA is a risky bet. For me to even consider a risky short run on a stock, I have to expect higher than say 30% short term return to make the possible loses worth the risk.
A quick review of TSLA stock proves me right. One would have had to time the market perfectly to hit 30% gains, and that has occurred only 30%+ gains THREE times since 2020. Yet it has also had FOUR price drops greater than 30% in this time frame, that have been larger than the gains. Hence, leaving investors holding the bag since 2020-2021 with a stock 35% off the highs. Other than the impossible task of perfect timing, investors since 2020 are largely under water. Going back 3 years, there were only 2 time frames one could have bought and held, and be in the black today: 3 months in the summer 2021 and about 7 months between summer 2022 - early 2023. Any other buy/hold from Jan 2021 over the last 2.5 years, and the investor is under water, eg the majority of the time since 1/2021...

I have better investments for my resources.

You made no money either direction.
Others did
Thats not getting it right.

 

[Brons2]

Here's a negative interpretation of Tesla results.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/46...ash-flow-negative-and-an-elephant-in-the-room

 

[leadcounsel]

You made no money either direction.
Others did
Thats not getting it right.

You're forgetting alternatives #3, #4, etc infinity, e.g. Not losing money. Not tying up money on a flat stock long term. Making more money elsewhere with lower risks. Not making risky short term taxable bets. And intangible gains elsewhere not tied to any of this.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Does the market actually believe?

If that’s the case, the market believed in Dutch tulips and the South Sea Company.

There is always an element of speculation, FOMO, and hype in market valuation.

Let’s consider that TSLA has yet to get close to the peak of $400 from the fall of 2021.

Further, Schwab margin requirements for TSLA are more restrictive than for other equities.

So, no, the market doesn’t believe. Right now, the speculators and believers believe.

At a PE of over 80, TSLA is still overpriced. Not quite as much as Tulips, but overpriced all the same.

Look at the company over time. Is Tesla stock a rollercoster? Certainly.
Picking the peak is picking a point in time; In statistics we call that an outlier. Important, but needs to be kept in perspective.

Look at the near term. The biggest unknown is the Cybertruk. Ford, GM and Ram better hope it flops. 1.5M reservtions...
Next is the Model 3 Highland, due relatively soon (Elon time). Rumors include 80 mile range increase and optimized manufacturing.
Those changes will find their way to the #1 selling vehicle in the world, the Model Y.
In 2025 we are likely to see the Model 2. If successful, this will steal the Toyota/Honda market. The Monterrey plant just may open up a new car market in LATAM.
Another plant (India?) will likely be announced by year end. Tesla factories are the most efficient car factories in the world. Every major car company has factories, old factories, scattered over the globe. This is an upgrade, procurement and management nightmare.

Tesla is a tech company; they are the only car company that codes it own firmware. This enabled them to better manage the chip shortage. The mighty Toyota is still struggling, right? Their vertical integration business model, including direct sales, is changing legacy car company strategy.

Who else has a charging network?
Tesla vehicles can send real time traffic data to the Mother Ship. This could be the biggest product of all.

What do other car companies have? Isn't Rivian #1 in the EV pickup market right now? I don't think any other car company even makes a profit in their EV business unit.

Is TSLA overpriced? Well, I am not selling anytime soon. I would never suggest betting the farm on any one stock. But having TSLA in my portfolio has been a good choice thus far. I am betting on the rollercoaster.

 

[UncleDave]

You're forgetting alternatives #3, #4, etc infinity, e.g. Not losing money. Not tying up money on a flat stock long term. Making more money elsewhere with lower risks. Not making risky short term taxable bets. And intangible gains elsewhere not tied to any of this.

I /we cant forget alternatives you never brought up to begin with.

You never once proffered/shared any advice or insight to any other possible strategy other than to stay away from tesla because of a litany of reasons.

 

[leadcounsel]

The biggest unknown is the Cybertruk. Ford, GM and Ram better hope it flops. 1.5M reservtions...

Well, perhaps Tesla has magical batteries, but Ford EV F150s drop 25% power under load. https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www...d-ford-lightning-loses-25-range-full-payload/

So unless Tesla has a solution, perhaps a gas generator in the bed for a constant power supply, or a diesel engine motivator under the hood, Tesla's already 3 years late "vaporware" pickup truck is not going to perform like why most people buy pickup trucks. Towing, hauling, long distance runs for stuff. I see 1.49 million cancelled reservations in the future...

Those changes will find their way to the #1 selling vehicle in the world, the Model Y.
In 2025 we are likely to see the Model 2. If successful, this will steal the Toyota/Honda market. The Monterrey plant just may open up a new car market in Mexico.

Misleading as these sales are all still dwarfed by the combination of current and recent past vehicles, and sales will cap out.

I'm eagerly awaiting the day, near term now, when all these "environmentalists" folks have to eat the costs of new $10,000 batteries on their 12 year old cars, sending them to early graves, or they get stranded in the middle of nowhere, or have to take 4 days to travel 1000 miles... I will laugh, and laugh, and laugh...

 

[JeffKeryk]

Well, perhaps Tesla has magical batteries, but Ford EV F150s drop 25% power under load. https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www.westernjournal.com/huge-drawback-electric-trucks-revealed-ford-lightning-loses-25-range-full-payload/

So unless Tesla has a solution, perhaps a gas generator in the bed for a constant power supply, or a diesel engine motivator under the hood, Tesla's already 3 years late "vaporware" pickup truck is not going to perform like why most people buy pickup trucks. Towing, hauling, long distance runs for stuff. I see 1.49 million cancelled reservations in the future...


Misleading as these sales are all still dwarfed by the combination of current and recent past vehicles, and sales will cap out.

I'm eagerly awaiting the day, near term now, when all these "environmentalists" folks have to eat the costs of new $10,000 batteries on their 12 year old cars, sending them to early graves, or they get stranded in the middle of nowhere, or have to take 4 days to travel 1000 miles... I will laugh, and laugh, and laugh...

You post opinion. I post numbers. So far your crystal ball has not been working too well...

 

[JeffKeryk]

Here's a negative interpretation of Tesla results.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/46...ash-flow-negative-and-an-elephant-in-the-room

So what if Tesla loses a point or 2 in margin? Still far better than anyone else. And Tesla is a pure play EV company! No one else even any EV money. Their ICE business props up their losing EV endeavors.

 

[Dave Hess]

Jeff,

Whats the possibilities that other EV manufacturers in China put a big dent in Tesla sales in the the next 3-5 years ?

 

[Brons2]

So what if Tesla loses a point or 2 in margin? Still far better than anyone else. And Tesla is a pure play EV company! No one else even any EV money. Their ICE business props up their losing EV endeavors.

Have you driven the competition? The ID.4 is pretty nice with similar range to the Model Y in the S model at a similar price tag, and there's more coming, from multiple manufacturers. For me the ID.4 particularly has better headroom and legroom than the Model Y, it's pretty appealing. Honestly I'd prefer something a little cheaper though. If they bring back the Bolt EUV the next time we're looking, we may consider that too. Along with the Equinox and anything else that's out there.

Oh sure you won't go 0 to 60 sub 4 sec in an ID.4 or many other EVs, but most people don't want that anyway. Whatever the ID.4 Pro S does is plenty fast for me. I think the Bolt/Bolt EUV are similar.

There is also the fact that the Model Y feels really cheap to me compared to the ID.4. I've only taken Ubers in Model Y but overall the ID.4 feels more premium to me. I'd definitely buy one used. We are just not looking to buy any car right now but we will be in a couple of years.

Ah yes and then the Chinese. I don't think folks will be turned on to Chinese electic cars in the USA, but other parts of the world? You bet your rear they will. I have ridden in them in Brazil, some of my wife's relatives have them (gas versions), and there are lots around on the streets. I bet the 11K Chinese electric car will sell like hotcakes in Brazil if they bring it there.

So yeah...Tesla's doing alright, and I am happy for them, but I will also say you're a breathless fanboy. Nobody likes to listen to that. I am pro-EV and I think we could definitely have some good conversations, but if you talk about Tesla until you're blue in the face, I would probably put my earbuds in and turn up the music.

 

[leadcounsel]

You post opinion. I post numbers. So far your crystal ball has not been working too well...

False. You're going to try to make this personal and I'm not biting. A theme in all these EV threads luring people to go personal when the facts go against Tesla.

You posted in 2020 that "Tesla is crushing it," and again on this thread. Stock is now down 35% in 3 years, with more down periods than up. In spite of 5 fold increase in sales. If Tesla were truly crushing it now, the stock would be roaring rather than whimpering. If Tesla were truly crushing it today, we'd see 50% quarterly gains, not 5%... Crushing it, is demand exceeding supply. That does not seem to be the case, today. Several articles state that supply exceeds demand with unsold units. An article from Market Insider 2 weeks ago states "Tesla forced to cut prices to increase demand with bearish market analysts."

https://markets.businessinsider.com...rice-cuts-drive-demand-bearish-analyst-2023-6

"Tesla will likely face challenging business conditions this year given the EV maker hasn't lined up any new models - and that could force the firm to slash car prices again to shore up demand, according to Bernstein's senior research analyst. "Our perspective is that upcoming numbers won't be great. I think there's limited chance that Tesla will eclipse consensus expectations in terms of deliveries this quarter. I think margins will be down sequentially, because they took incremental price cuts in the quarter," Toni Sacconaghi told CNBC" Deep price cuts are harming Tesla's profits and is unsustainable.

On this thread and every EV thread, I post data and prognosis which has, overall, been accurate long-term. Tesla is not "crushing it," at this point. As many have pointed out, including myself, they have more problems than solutions, are years behind in deliveries of vaporware, and are grossly overvalued versus both tech and auto peers.

Folks should get off Tesla fantasy island, and truly look at the data.

 

[Astro14]

Look at the company over time. Is Tesla stock a rollercoster? Certainly.
Picking the peak is picking a point in time; In statistics we call that an outlier. Important, but needs to be kept in perspective.

Look at the near term. The biggest unknown is the Cybertruk. Ford, GM and Ram better hope it flops. 1.5M reservtions...
Next is the Model 3 Highland, due relatively soon (Elon time). Rumors include 80 mile range increase and optimized manufacturing.
Those changes will find their way to the #1 selling vehicle in the world, the Model Y.
In 2025 we are likely to see the Model 2. If successful, this will steal the Toyota/Honda market. The Monterrey plant just may open up a new car market in LATAM.
Another plant (India?) will likely be announced by year end. Tesla factories are the most efficient car factories in the world. Every major car company has factories, old factories, scattered over the globe. This is an upgrade, procurement and management nightmare.

Tesla is a tech company; they are the only car company that codes it own firmware. This enabled them to better manage the chip shortage. The mighty Toyota is still struggling, right? Their vertical integration business model, including direct sales, is changing legacy car company strategy.

Who else has a charging network?
Tesla vehicles can send real time traffic data to the Mother Ship. This could be the biggest product of all.

What do other car companies have? Isn't Rivian #1 in the EV pickup market right now? I don't think any other car company even makes a profit in their EV business unit.

Is TSLA overpriced? Well, I am not selling anytime soon. I would never suggest betting the farm on any one stock. But having TSLA in my portfolio has been a good choice thus far. I am betting on the rollercoaster.

Roller coaster = wild ride = speculative pick.

You and I are saying the same thing about the stock and the company.

Here’s the difference: I enjoy wild rides outside my portfolio. You clearly are OK with them in the portfolio.

So, for every time you say, “C’mon man! Join me on this ride!”

You must be prepared to accept, and understand, the reply, “This is not my cup of tea*”


*And it isn’t. For very sound reasons. We once owned it, just as we once owned gold. For a few months. Made a decent gain. On both. Got out. My total portfolio is riskier than average, much riskier than is recommended for my age. That is a choice as part of a financial plan that fits our tolerance and our unique circumstances. We have carefully chosen where to place that risk. Google. Apple. And others. But in the goal set and mix of the totAl portfolio, another crazy PE ratio simply doesn’t belong in it.

 

[Brons2]

False. You're going to try to make this personal and I'm not biting. A theme in all these EV threads luring people to go personal when the facts go against Tesla.

You posted in 2020 that "Tesla is crushing it," and again on this thread. Stock is now down 35% in 3 years, with more down periods than up. In spite of 5 fold increase in sales. If Tesla were truly crushing it now, the stock would be roaring rather than whimpering. If Tesla were truly crushing it today, we'd see 50% quarterly gains, not 5%... Crushing it, is demand exceeding supply. That does not seem to be the case, today. Several articles state that supply exceeds demand with unsold units. An article from Market Insider 2 weeks ago states "Tesla forced to cut prices to increase demand with bearish market analysts."

https://markets.businessinsider.com...rice-cuts-drive-demand-bearish-analyst-2023-6

"Tesla will likely face challenging business conditions this year given the EV maker hasn't lined up any new models - and that could force the firm to slash car prices again to shore up demand, according to Bernstein's senior research analyst. "Our perspective is that upcoming numbers won't be great. I think there's limited chance that Tesla will eclipse consensus expectations in terms of deliveries this quarter. I think margins will be down sequentially, because they took incremental price cuts in the quarter," Toni Sacconaghi told CNBC" Deep price cuts are harming Tesla's profits and is unsustainable.

On this thread and every EV thread, I post data and prognosis which has, overall, been accurate long-term. Tesla is not "crushing it," at this point. As many have pointed out, including myself, they have more problems than solutions, are years behind in deliveries of vaporware, and are grossly overvalued versus both tech and auto peers.

Folks should get off Tesla fantasy island, and truly look at the data.

You are the oppposite of the other guy. You are the breathless anti-fanboy. Dude they are shutting down the local factory to start Cybertruck production, I live about 35 miles from there and people that work for Tesla are everywhere in the Austin area nowadays. Yes it's late but it's not vaporware. It's really happening. Saying otherwise is being severely obtuse.

And they are delivering way more cars, the Model Y outsold the Corolla for pete's sake. Stock prices go up and down regardless of a company's performance at times depending on what kind of mood investors are in. Sometimes stock prices go down just because the market is running for the exits. That's life. It's one metric of many about a company.

Are they crushing it? No, but the overall trajectory appears upwards. They have the best selling non-pickup vehicle in the US. Suck it up, your gloom and doom is overstated.

I reiterate that this thread, and neither of your personalities are adding value to this forum.