Tesla Q1 sales flatlining, as I have predicted

Don't waste your breath. Some people are only open to what they wanna hear. It must be hard to know everything...

I don’t know. Mine drives just fine in the cold. Might use a bit more battery reserve, but I’d rather drive it in the snow than my GTI.
 
And Silicon Valley adopted me and made me one of their own. And they gave me stock options for sitting around on my butt slamming code.
I guess we should all be so lucky to get the winning scratch off lotto ticket.
Don't waste your breath. Some people are only open to what they wanna hear. It must be hard to know everything...
I'd respond in kind, but I'd be the one lectured. I didn't come here to argue, but you often go personal with these discussions and I don't know why. Seems you have it pretty gravy to be so salty when discussions go against your belief system.
 
I guess we should all be so lucky to get the winning scratch off lotto ticket.

I'd respond in kind, but I'd be the one lectured. I didn't come here to argue, but you often go personal with these discussions and I don't know why. Seems you have it pretty gravy to be so salty when discussions go against your belief system.
I was lucky to be in Silicon Valley. I spent so much of my life making one mistake after another; I had become a hope-to-die alcoholic. Most of my friends are dead. And some of my family. I joined AA at 33; got my 1st degree at 40. In most places, I would have pissed my life away, but because of the oppotunity here, I had a chance. I am certainly one of the lucky ones, and I know it. I should be dead or in prison. I cannot believe what has transpired and my life today is working with friends and family for things like college, places to live. I regularly attend to neighbors in their 90's that need Costco stuff, rides to Doctors, whatever. They give me purpose and make me happy.

FYI I have never bought a lotto ticket. I can dream lke anyone else but I know enough Arithmetic to pretty much know I ain't gonna win.

You say you did not come here to argue, yet you come off as a know-it-all. By the way, my belief system is, buy what you want; it's your money. Regarding Teslas, I tell prospective buyers these cars are expensive. Are you sure you can afford it? I ask them about charging. I ask them to make sure this car, or any car, fits their use case.
 
How do you explain Norway?
Simple. Soft ball question.
1. Politics. Norway is moving to phase out fossil fuels as a matter of policy. Obviously that will contribute. Policies + targeted social engineering and propaganda.
2. No ties to legacy ICE brands, like GM, Ford, etc.
3. Money: Norway is one of the wealthiest per capita nations on the planet. Money does not factor buying decision making. Wealth also often leads to a desire for impractical/trending consumer goods, and also a certain level of cluelessness or frivolous entitlement. No clue how energy is made or used, little concern for how long durable goods last because they are easily replaceable. Nor any long-term thinking of sustainability, fixability, etc. the things that average people think about, long-term. Rich people don't think "how can I afford this now or later or a replacement."
4. Very congested area. As long as they can move the pollution from the tailpipe to somewhere distant, out of sight and out of mind. They don't see all the pollution in the production and mining, etc.
5. Small geographical area. The entire nation is almost exactly the size of Montana, 148,000 s/m. 650 miles wide, 250 miles tall. So that's basically 1 full EV charge, 2 at the extreme, to get practically anywhere within reason. That makes sense for cars not needing much range.
6. Per capital car ownership in Norway is very high, meaning there are multiple cars per family and ICE vehicles for times when EV won't be practical.
 
I was lucky to be in Silicon Valley. I spent so much of my life making one mistake after another; I had become a hope-to-die alcoholic. Most of my friends are dead. And some of my family. I joined AA at 33; got my 1st degree at 40. In most places, I would have ****** my life away, but because of the oppotunity here, I had a chance. I am certainly one of the lucky ones, and I know it. I should be dead or in prison. I cannot believe what has transpired and my life today is working with friends and family for things like college, places to live. I regularly attend to neighbors in their 90's that need Costco stuff, rides to Doctors, whatever. They give me purpose and make me happy.

FYI I have never bought a lotto ticket. I can dream lke anyone else but I know enough Arithmetic to pretty much know I ain't gonna win.

You say you did not come here to argue, yet you come off as a know-it-all. By the way, my belief system is, buy what you want; it's your money. Regarding Teslas, I tell prospective buyers these cars are expensive. Are you sure you can afford it? I ask them about charging. I ask them to make sure this car, or any car, fits their use case.
This isn't about you, or me. But that's the direction you've now gone. This is a economics discussion about Tesla. Period. You threw the first barbs, and now more barbs, at me. I have no idea why. Apparently you don't like my pragmatic view, so I'm a "know-it-all." That is offensive. I think my views here are well articulated, backed up, and pragmatic.

I think you have me dialed in wrong, as someone weak, or interested in your personal history or wants to argue personally with you. I am neither. I have no ill-will towards you or anyone here. I come here to share ideas in a polite and professional manner. No idea why I'm being called a "know it all," or similar. If you don't like my view, debate it. Share ideas. That's what a learning experiment is. I'm not going into the mud with you, however.
 
Simple. Soft ball question.
1. Politics. Norway is moving to phase out fossil fuels as a matter of policy. Obviously that will contribute. Policies + targeted social engineering and propaganda.
2. No ties to legacy ICE brands, like GM, Ford, etc.
3. Money: Norway is one of the wealthiest per capita nations on the planet. Money does not factor buying decision making. Wealth also often leads to a desire for impractical/trending consumer goods, and also a certain level of cluelessness or frivolous entitlement. No clue how energy is made or used, little concern for how long durable goods last because they are easily replaceable. Nor any long-term thinking of sustainability, fixability, etc. the things that average people think about, long-term. Rich people don't think "how can I afford this now or later or a replacement."
4. Very congested area. As long as they can move the pollution from the tailpipe to somewhere distant, out of sight and out of mind. They don't see all the pollution in the production and mining, etc.
5. Small geographical area. The entire nation is almost exactly the size of Montana, 148,000 s/m. 650 miles wide, 250 miles tall. So that's basically 1 full EV charge, 2 at the extreme, to get practically anywhere within reason. That makes sense for cars not needing much range.
6. Per capital car ownership in Norway is very high, meaning there are multiple cars per family and ICE vehicles for times when EV won't be practical.

That all sounds wonderful, sign me up! Seriously though, #2 probably plays a bigger role than most people realize. Brand is everything here and the way identity is displayed for one is through transportation. I'm guilty of it as a car guy. The whole American image of a car equaling freedom really drives that. I wouldn't have ended up with a Tesla if my wife hadn't decided that's what she wanted. I probably wouldn't have given it a serious thought other than I thought the tech was cool.
 
They're already mainstream. They just aren't the most popular choice. Plenty of people daily them.
Well lemme explain... I don't see EV being used to fly, deliver mail, on rails, on water and the list can continue. That's what I call mainstream, not a handful of soccer moms rolling up in their electrified toys. Might be a bit off topic, but it gets rather old/ridiculous seeing ads like the latest Subaru with the zero emission claim. Yeah maybe not while the thing is in transit, but lots of emission being created to build it, the battery pack, the electricity to charge the thing. If the straight up honest approach would be taken it'd be more tolerable, but that will never happen as some can't handle the realistic nature of some things.
 
Last I looked Wisconsin EV registration was around 2% adoption.
https://electrek.co/2022/08/24/current-ev-registrations-in-the-us-how-does-your-state-stack-up/
38k EVs registered in MN, about 1/3rd are Teslas. Heavily weighted in 1 county which I presume is the wealthiest.
https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/

2% is not mainstream. 2% in stats is called abnormal, an anomaly.
Yes we have a long way to go for mainstream. The “thinking” maybe mainstream but the reality is in the numbers.
Only time will tell, long term in years or a decade the ultimate outcome.

I think in time the reality will show the hurdles to mainstream battery EVs are insurmountable in replacing gasoline with electricity in a nation that currently has no will to increase costs of that electricity to finance building power plants and infrastructure to support a battery EV world.

It’s truly a fantasy right now, some alternate universe even in CA where they couldn’t even supply reliable power last summer to their residents and at this time EVs there are in single digit numbers.
 
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Yes we have a long way to go for mainstream. The “thinking” maybe mainstream but the reality is in the numbers.
Only time will tell, long term in years or a decade the ultimate outcome.

I think in time the reality will show the hurdles to mainstream battery EVs are insurmountable in replacing gasoline with electricity in a nation that currently has no will to increase costs of that electricity to finance building power plants and infrastructure to support a battery EV world.

It’s truly a fantasy right now, some alternate universe even in CA where they couldn’t even supply reliable power last summer to their residents and at this time EVs there are in single digit numbers.
They don't even need to really raise rates in many states. How much do you think a kWh from Vogtle would cost, even at its total boondoggle price? What if I told you it's ~$0.14/kWh?

The problem is that there are many other schemes in play that ultimately cost much, MUCH more.
 
Yes we have a long way to go for mainstream. The “thinking” maybe mainstream but the reality is in the numbers.
Only time will tell, long term in years or a decade the ultimate outcome.

I think in time the reality will show the hurdles to mainstream battery EVs are insurmountable in replacing gasoline with electricity in a nation that currently has no will to increase costs of that electricity to finance building power plants and infrastructure to support a battery EV world.

It’s truly a fantasy right now, some alternate universe even in CA where they couldn’t even supply reliable power last summer to their residents and at this time EVs there are in single digit numbers.



For the price of oil to be stable and cheap it needs to be available and conflict free. This has never occurred in our lives.

The "conflict" part is a far more insurmountable problem than any problem with electricity.
The real fantasy is believing you can fix the conflict problem.

Then even if it's available and cheap we still have refining shortfalls requiring ongoing massive investment.

We can make and distribute our own electrons independently of the rest of the world.

Canada can do it, do you really believe the United States cannot?

The Global automotive industry is putting almost all its future here.
 
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What is amazing about your story is that IBM, this huge corporation with thousands of very smart people could not see the possibilities. They had the same bias.....what was sitting in front of them, AT THE TIME. They couldn't imagine, you release this complex machine to the masses and a decade later, it's gone completely bonkers. It's no different than the stock market. If we have a 5 year boom, suddenly everyone is investing and we are all geniuses. We have a 5 year bust, no one will buy a share. It's a bias that our brains fall for every time.
My point is, people judge things based on what we have now, what we "know" now. Through the computer phenomemon, I have learned to embrace change instead of fighting it. It's not like we have a choice.
The naysayer's issues are, for the most part, due to what they think based on their experience. That's human nature.
EVs are different. Teslas are different yet. They are not trying to be like other cars; buttons and dials are a prime example.
Musk is a leader, a visionary, not a follower. Will he succeed? Who knows? But so far so good. The results speak for themselves.
 
Tesla is selling at FIFTY times earnings when other makers sell at 4 to 10 times earnings.
Tesla stock is down 50% in the last 12 months
Tesla sales would be in the toilet this year if it wasnt for the American taxpayer subsidizing their cars, with $7,500 in tax credits.
The legacy ICE companies are doing great considering they cant offer the same $7,500.

Tesla does not release their financial results until late in the day April 19th. SO we still do not know how they are doing but with the American taxpayer kicking in a huge subsidy for them I would assume MAYBE doing ok. Subsidy's will die one day as the public gets annoyed.
Not to mention they would have gone bankrupt years ago if it wasn't for California's terrible "carbon offset " ponzi scheme. Vehicle manufacturers handed Tesla over 4 billion dollars for no reason. It was essentially financial blackmail required by the people's republic.
 
Jeff, you and I live in alternate universes and why I dont get involved in discussions with you anymore.
There is no tax credit for ICE vehicles. In case you are not aware (which we know you are fully aware), Ice vehicles are GM, Ford and Toyota line of business.
I know what is going to happen, much like I have predicted before the Tesla stock dove to new lows when you thought it was going to hit the sky when the stock split occurred.

Facts are facts, Tesla produces cars and only one kind of car, they slashed prices this year and along with tax credits totaling close to 20% of the purchase price of a Tesla is doing nothing spectacular in moving cars with such huge discounts. Im looking forward to their April 19th financial report for a more clear picture, I can only guess it wont be pretty but even if it is good means nothing, sooner or later they will have to compete with the "big boys" and not rely on tax credits. The stock is not worth 50 times earnings, just like it wasnt worth 75% to 100% earnings when you thought it was.
When Elon musk says the company is way overvalued that should tell you alot. I don't get the kool-aid drinking Tesla followers. I've met Ferrari owners who were less arrogant and snooty, and Ferrari has a racing pedigree, and innovation behind them.
 
My point is, people judge things based on what we have now, what we "know" now. Through the computer phenomemon, I have learned to embrace change instead of fighting it. It's not like we have a choice.
The naysayer's issues are, for the most part, due to what they think based on their experience. That's human nature.
EVs are different. Teslas are different yet. They are not trying to be like other cars; buttons and dials are a prime example.
Musk is a leader, a visionary, not a follower. Will he succeed? Who knows? But so far so good. The results speak for themselves.
We all have a choice in what we use/do daily as that's part of being an American. I'm not a naysayer, just have common/practical sense and gladly say that battery power can play a part in daily life, but will NEVER take over fossil fuel sources on any level.

Musk a leader, bwahaha?!? People that seem more visionary than others are almost always seriously lacking controlled mentality on some level and of course there will always be those that follow that crap and defend them. More power to those as I will stick with what works for me day in/out as it will never be taken away in this lifetime.
 
Not to mention they would have gone bankrupt years ago if it wasn't for California's terrible "carbon offset " ponzi scheme. Vehicle manufacturers handed Tesla over 4 billion dollars for no reason. It was essentially financial blackmail required by the people's republic.
Very good post that most do not know and that is the only reason why they showed a profit for the almost first time in 2020/2021- carbon credits which the public, once again ultimately paid that money and in simplistic form taken from one company and swung over to Tesla. Which of course the public paid extra to the company it was taken from then added to the profits of Tesla.
 
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Diogenes - The great thieves lead away the little thief.

Screenshot 2023-04-06 at 11.07.56 AM.webp
 
We all have a choice in what we use/do daily as that's part of being an American. I'm not a naysayer, just have common/practical sense and gladly say that battery power can play a part in daily life, but will NEVER take over fossil fuel sources on any level.

Musk a leader, bwahaha?!? People that seem more visionary than others are almost always seriously lacking controlled mentality on some level and of course there will always be those that follow that crap and defend them. More power to those as I will stick with what works for me day in/out as it will never be taken away in this lifetime.
Every major car maker is chasing Musk. He is the richest or 2nd richest man in the world. There is a reason for it. Do I agree with everything he does or says? Heck no. But his accomplishments are incredible. Do you know his companies? May favorite is Neuralink.

"The initial goal of our technology is to help people with paralysis regain independence through the control of computers and mobile devices. Our devices are therefore currently being designed to one day give people the ability to communicate more easily via text or speech synthesis, to follow their curiosity on the web, or to express their creativity through photography, art, or writing apps."

"WHO WILL THE LINK HELP?
We hope our first application will enable people with quadriplegia to control a point-and-click computer cursor. We believe there are many other potential future applications for the Link. These may include restoring motor, sensory, and visual function, as well as treatment of neurological disorders."

Incredible stuff.
 
Simple. Soft ball question.
1. Politics. Norway is moving to phase out fossil fuels as a matter of policy. Obviously that will contribute. Policies + targeted social engineering and propaganda.
2. No ties to legacy ICE brands, like GM, Ford, etc.
3. Money: Norway is one of the wealthiest per capita nations on the planet. Money does not factor buying decision making. Wealth also often leads to a desire for impractical/trending consumer goods, and also a certain level of cluelessness or frivolous entitlement. No clue how energy is made or used, little concern for how long durable goods last because they are easily replaceable. Nor any long-term thinking of sustainability, fixability, etc. the things that average people think about, long-term. Rich people don't think "how can I afford this now or later or a replacement."
4. Very congested area. As long as they can move the pollution from the tailpipe to somewhere distant, out of sight and out of mind. They don't see all the pollution in the production and mining, etc.
5. Small geographical area. The entire nation is almost exactly the size of Montana, 148,000 s/m. 650 miles wide, 250 miles tall. So that's basically 1 full EV charge, 2 at the extreme, to get practically anywhere within reason. That makes sense for cars not needing much range.
6. Per capital car ownership in Norway is very high, meaning there are multiple cars per family and ICE vehicles for times when EV won't be practical.
Oh come on now.

It's more simple than that. It's all about hydroelectric power. Over 90% of their output is hydro and over 7 percent from wind.

https://www.statista.com/statistics...ctricity,percent to Norway's electricity mix.
 
Well lemme explain... I don't see EV being used to fly, deliver mail, on rails, on water and the list can continue. That's what I call mainstream, not a handful of soccer moms rolling up in their electrified toys. Might be a bit off topic, but it gets rather old/ridiculous seeing ads like the latest Subaru with the zero emission claim. Yeah maybe not while the thing is in transit, but lots of emission being created to build it, the battery pack, the electricity to charge the thing. If the straight up honest approach would be taken it'd be more tolerable, but that will never happen as some can't handle the realistic nature of some things.
Rail is all electric, what are you talking about? The diesel generator is just onboard. The rail industry would likely no longer exist if it wasn't for the electric traction motor. It was the only way to get immediate torque to actually move freight. I took a train that was 21,000 tons today with only 8,800 horsepower. The engine could physically not move it if it had to go through some coupler setup. It would simply spin the wheels or destroy the drivetrain. Oshkosh Truck just up the road from me has the contract for electric mail trucks and they're building them right now. Sorry, I forgot I was a soccer mom. I'll remember to flip my hair and berate the counter kid when I pick up my pizza tonight.

It takes emissions to make your vehicle too. It's pretty apparent though when I don't have to inhale the fumes of the car next to me. That's big.
 
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