You forgot about the worlds largest dedicated charging network and only network with bidirectional communication to the vehicles themselves.
Tesla Q1 sales flatlining, as I have predicted
- Thread starter leadcounsel
- Start date
You forgot about the worlds largest dedicated charging network and only network with bidirectional communication to the vehicles themselves.
It sounds accurate enough to me without the time to dig. With electric cars being about 1% of the market total on the road that seems reasonable at least.
Its really complex with a tremendous number of categories, direct, indirect, military, dependency costs...
Brian Hicks did some work on this number, as did Milton Copulous.
Hicks came to something like the true cost of a barrel of oil at 450 dollars a barrel in 07 I think.
My new home will be completed about August of this year. The garage will have two circuits, 240V, for two EV's to charge..... And I don't even own an EV right now. I expect to own one in the next 2-3 years.
My son is the the Financial Mgr at a large VW Dealership. I asked him about a month ago,..... "If I were to purchase an EV right now, which is best and which is the best deal right now?" I expected him to say.... "ID.4". He did not.
His answer.... Absolutely DO NOT buy one now, Dad. None of them are a good deal and none of them have the range you are looking for. He said the good news is.... Competition and R&D are very high and are only going to increase in the next 2 years. He predicts the technology around EV's going to vastly improve.... and quickly. All the while, prices because of all the bigs getting in the EV game are going to come down.
He promised to help me buy one in 2025 or 2026.
PS. I do not qualify for the Govt discount.
...........
My son is the the Financial Mgr at a large VW Dealership. I asked him about a month ago,..... "If I were to purchase an EV right now, which is best and which is the best deal right now?" I expected him to say.... "ID.4". He did not.
His answer.... Absolutely DO NOT buy one now, Dad. None of them are a good deal and none of them have the range you are looking for. He said the good news is.... Competition and R&D are very high and are only going to increase in the next 2 years. He predicts the technology around EV's going to vastly improve.... and quickly. All the while, prices because of all the bigs getting in the EV game are going to come down.
He promised to help me buy one in 2025 or 2026.
PS. I do not qualify for the Govt discount.
...........
Stock is down 10% during 3 consecutive trading day losses since I posted. Just a data point.
Whats year to date performance against its peers?
Worst among peers and still grossly overvalued.
Tesla: EPS a whopping $55. 52 wk range, 101 to 364, currently 185. Down about 50% on the year, 10% this week.
Ford: EPS ($0.49). 52 wk range 11-17. currently 12. Down 30% on the year.
GM: EPS $6. 52 wk range 30-44. Currently 35. Down 20% on the year.
Stallanis: EPS $6. 52 wk range 11-19, Currently 18. Down 5% on the year.
Toyota: EPS: $13. 52 wk range 130-177, Currently 140. Down 27% on the year.
Honda: EPS: $3. 52 wk range 21-27. Currently 26. Down 5% on the year.
TSLA down more this week as a percent, than the entire annual drop for Honda or Chrysler, for instance. TSLA down by far more than any peers in 52 weeks.
Yes, with a 55x EPS and "only " down 50% on the year, midst of a recession, brink of depression heading into a global financial meltdown and a completely currency reset nationally and globally, along with brink of multifront shooting war with at least 2 superpowers, with 1/2 of the globe economically lining up adverse to the US, I'd realistically cut TSLA stock price by about 50-80%. A 55x valuation in the auto industry is ludacris in good times. In bad times it's insanity. But that's just my pessimism and not financial advice whatsoever.
Last edited:
52 week range is not year to date.
Teslas up 71% YTD.
GM 3.76
Ford -2.24
Toyota 1.55
You're correct. But I've provided a 52 week look, which is a better metric IMV. YTD is just Q1 on a stock price. Not much data. I'm not trying to cherry pick. YTD seems to be cherry picking to support a point.
It's up to each person to determine whats most relevant to them.
YTD is a preset in most formulas for a good reason yearly performance counts.
The big question is why is it worth what it is seems to be answered by total % returned in its life which is something like 14K %.
Yup, it's a data point but a short one at Q1. Limited usefulness. Not here to argue finances with folks. I think longer data points, as I've presented, are more valuable in making assessments.
A 55x EPS is nutty IMO. YMMV.
Thats your opinion - that 52 week is more important to you than lifetime return or YTD.
We can agree to disagree without being disagreeable.
Whether right or wrong my opinion is Tesla is no longer new, show me a 2023 Model 3 or a 2019 and I couldn’t tell the difference. Model S is starting to get stale in my opinion. I think casual consumers not enthusiasts like the novelty and flashy new designs of other manufacturers and care less about ultimate technology or fart noises.
I'm not being disagreeable, I'm being pragmatic.
I guess we can look at Ford's all-time returns since 1980, which including dividends/reinvestments it's a 2830% return.
The first 20 years for Ford, Ford's return was a whopping 6,300% on investment.
But the last decades have been very hard for Ford with a overall downward trend. Lots of competition, regulations, etc.
In 13 years, Tesla is at about 11,500% ROI, with the most recent 5 years being 800%. So that means the first 8 years was about a 10,800% return, the most recent 5 years, big slowdown to 800% return. Great, but follow the trends.
Tesla has no doubt been fabulous for investors, a great American company. But as with Ford, Tesla experienced explosive growth, that has slowed radically in the last few years.
I think one could overlap Ford and Tesla all-time price charts and see very close similarities. With both companies, sans much competition, both experienced explosive early growth, then a sharp decline in valuation followed by more realistic slow gains.
Ford is the same price today, as in 1998 and again in 2010.
Tesla is the same price today, as it was in 11/2020.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/01/16/63-years-later-what-can-investors-learn-from-fords.aspx
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/
So much arguing on the internet. I'm not here to argue. I'm here to learn, and share some input. That's all.
TSLA is a volatile stock. Hang on for the ride. Like everyone else, I did not give it much value in Dec 2018, so I spent 60 large (or what ever it was) on a Model 3 for wifey. Why didn'y I buy the stock?
Because I was stupid like (almost) everyone else. Even the mighty Toyota, who invested $50M or something, and then got out. Sheesh.
What's the answer? Point in time is kinda meaningless unless you are buying or selling.
Personally I think the current price is an opportunity, but that's just me. YRMV.
Because I was stupid like (almost) everyone else. Even the mighty Toyota, who invested $50M or something, and then got out. Sheesh.
What's the answer? Point in time is kinda meaningless unless you are buying or selling.
Personally I think the current price is an opportunity, but that's just me. YRMV.
Unless you’re a gambler or short term, trader using something less than a year is ridiculous trying to make a point on a stock that has been slashed in half from its previous “recent” high.
Come on I’m sure you know better than that.
Stock has gone down from selling at 100 times earnings, to Now 50 times earnings in an industry that is 5 to 10 times earnings.
There is not much difference between 1 year, 6 months or 1 quarter; they are all short term.
Try 5 years.
From your OP:
"The much touted Tesla"
"the honeymoon is over"
"(and this EV craze)"
"flash-in-the-pan"
"the honeymoon is over for now"
"these atrocious numbers"
These are not things people say when they are trying to elicit and be receptive to well-intentioned discourse. You clearly have a negative bias when it comes to EVs and Tesla, and are successfully seeking to generate emotional responses from forum members with opposing viewpoints. To clutch your pearls in response to all this ghastly arguing is ridiculous.
