There's lots of middle income 2+ car families waiting for the prices to come down a bit and an electric 2nd vehicle realistically suits maybe 80-90% of urban families.
And in 20 years that might happen. EVs are far too young now, and we have not experienced the Gen1 that have dead batteries at year 12, and go to landfills. That is a data point we will see in 5 years. These middle income families likely do not tend to buy new cars, they will want a used car that will last a long time. ICE has a known advantage, EVs have a speculative dis-advantage.
Why do I say middle income families don't buy new cars? Because they don't. Especially in our current climate of "hard money." Interest rates are >7% on autos, which given the typical new car being north of $40,000 it's a back breaker.
And while gas prices might not be directly competitive with short distance EV uses, the math still works out as approximately as good for ICE as EV for costs, given electricity rates which will also go higher. Also, EVs require a place to charge them. Many people live in locations that do not accommodate this. Or a family that shares 1 car, cannot have a EV going nonstop. ETC.
Economics today. Between national debt, personal debt, interest rates, 2/3rds of Americans in near poverty, even 1/2 the people earning low 6 figures stretching their dollars, US dollar teetering on collapse.... shooting wars on the horizon, the lowest priority for most Americans is a new $50,000+ EV.
I think you are betting on the horse and buggy or steam engines as initially, who would get rid of a paid for set of horses, and pay 20 times as much for an early motor car?
I think you are not factoring that gas cars were "new technology." Adoption was relatively fast with mass production. Mostly delayed by having limited infrastructure (roads, fuel stations, etc.).
But whereas gas cars were new, and adoption far faster than EVs, battery powered car adoption is now at around year 120. Battery powered cars are not new. Battery powered cars were invented over 110 years ago. They have been unworkable and lagged behind ICE until about 4-5 years ago, and are still unworkable by most auto makers. Tesla simply cracked the code, which can be reverse engineered.
See, whereas gas cars offered clear near universal advantages over horses, EVs offer no such clear universal advantages. Their main selling point is they can be charged overnight, and they can be made a bit quicker. Some people like the technology aspects, some despise it.
For 95% of auto buyers, apparently they weigh the disadvantages as more important. Limited power, limited range, limited designs, requirement of having a place to charge it, inconveniences of limited range and slow charging, greater repair times/costs, more complexities, limited places to repair them, bad in cold weather and snow, higher costs for similar platforms, heavier platforms and more expensive tires, perceived drastically shorter lifespan, limited offerings on the used market, and some people just refuse to adopt them, like myself.
