Yep. It's called arithmetic. Tax Revenue - Spending = Deficit or Surplus.
Imagine that...
stock market
- Thread starter Oildudeny
- Start date
Imagine that...
Good information, but how do you access it?
Yeah, don't take medical advice from people who aren't doctors. Or economic advice from people who aren't economist. The Fed actually thinks inflation isn't a concern and has already said they won't jack up interest rates until they actually see a rise instead of just the shadow of inflation. So when people claim otherwise, you have to question their credentials and their data. I'm not saying they're wrong, I just haven't seen any data.
Same deal with second stimulus. Haven't heard any talk of that and the talk now is actually raising taxes as the next step. Sometimes all people can do is relive the past and not actually project the future. Let's see the data, haven't seen any so far for that. Data that's out there actually says the opposite. Air travel is up, the rich are sitting on over 2 trillion that's been saved up due to no vacations/eating out, there's 1.9 trillion being injected, lots of others say get ready for a boom especially with most of the population vaccinated by June.
In Japan, They’re Still Worried About Deflation, Not Inflation
If any country could remain unmoved by the inflation talk that is heating up in the U.S., it would be Japan, where the central bank is digging in for a further battle with falling prices and might reduce interest rates further into negative territory.
www.wsj.com
Economy Revs Up as Americans Increase Spending on Flights, Lodging, Dining Out
Older people are spending more on plane tickets. Restaurant visits are up on OpenTable. Hotel occupancy is at a 20-week high. The U.S. economy is showing signs of a revival.
www.wsj.com
Last edited:
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
I’m seeing more freight trains … possibly because it’s cheaper when managed right. And they have all converted to hauling the ocean shipping containers … this would leave some trucks with a shorter haul to final destination perhapsJack Watts,
I felt the 10 year bull run was coming to an end in late 2019 and went to 90% cash. This is what got me worried:
- Yield Inversion
- Buffet having $140B in cash on the sidelines
- Out of control nightly bank Repos and the Fed coming to the rescue
- Record number of CEOs in 2019 quitting, cashing out and dumping their stock / cashing in their stock options
- Crazy amount of corporate stock buybacks to pump and dump the stock while exponentially increasing toxic debt
- Long haul big rig 18 wheel truckers reporting the economy and manufacturing is slowing down. When truckers that crisscross the USA for 7-8 weeks (go home for 2 weeks) say loads are getting difficult to find...... that’s a BIG red flag. Truckers are no doubt the ’eyes’ of our economy, not some bozo on Mad Money TV show. American economy revolves around truckers and when they are parked at Flying J , Petro or Loves truck stop for 4 days with no loads to haul there’s trouble ahead.
- Truckers reported oil glut, mass layoffs and bankruptcies in oil & gas, fracking industry looong before crude oil price turned negative
- CSX, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern parking many locomotives and freight trains across the USA in storage yards
What do all these insiders know that that average small investor doesn’t know ?
Just like you.... I poured all my cash back into the market when the illness shut down the global economy. I missed the bottom by 2 weeks and simply rode the wave up till present day. I’m now taking profits here and there.
Folks can laugh at me for my analysis.... they won’t be laughing at the results of my crazy market gains.
View attachment 48894
.
Very nice. Imagine if you had a million dollars cash to invest ?
Watching various truckers on YouTube and listening to what they report.
If I had a million dollars I'd pay everything off and just retire, lol!
I think you cant never go wrong with a mutual fund balanced 60/40 .... you are not going to break any record but you are going to get decent return in basically all situation ... like everything in life for me , Im too poor to get what is perceived the best , or the cheapest , so , the happy medium in everything works well for me
I basically do about 50% in the S&P 500 and then I have a few other funds that kinda tracks the Nasdaq and they've been doing slightly better than the S&P 500 but once in a while a little bit worse. No bonds and fully invested, only cash on the sides is for regular expenses. I figured I'm up over 50% over the last two years so mind as well stay full invested. It was actually pretty easy to set up a margin account and it's easy to tap if you need short term cash.I think you cant never go wrong with a mutual fund balanced 60/40 .... you are not going to break any record but you are going to get decent return in basically all situation ... like everything in life for me , Im too poor to get what is perceived the best , or the cheapest , so , the happy medium in everything works well for me
If you read my post I did post a "source" showing our national debt at an all time high above our GDP.
wow, Japan, that isnt a very good example, lets hope to god we dont go down that road. You do know Japans stock market has only recently recovered to getting back to the levels of where it was TWENTY ONE (21) years ago.
Let me clarify, Japans stock market has been in the toilet for 2 decades and more and for the last 20 years was below the price it was in 1990 and it still is!
https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225?op=1
In fact, it hit 38,000 in 1990 and only recently got back to around 29,000 still about 33% off its high from 2 decades ago
https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data
Its all good, not looking to debate, I posted the reasons its smart not to take on debt, decade after decade at an alarming rate to make our lives easier and leave it for future generations to pay it back. Sooner or later the debt cycle stops, through force (downfall of a country) or financial calamity, it cant continue increasing every year for decade after decade with no will to stop it.
Like I said, I am along for the ride for whatever happens, I dont fight the market.
I do care about what is happening to the country but again, all I can do is vote and no one cares about massive debt, so again *L* Im along for the ride.
My family in a stage of our lives where looking for the big "kill" in the market is past us, Im in a good place BUT I still look for nice stable investments rather then the next big thing.
Dont get me wrong I wouldn't mind a big "kill" pick or picks but Im in the "preserve" stage with some fun money for things like that.
I guess this post makes sense ... sometimes I post to much while I am still waking up. *L*
alarmguy,
I’ve had 2 big kills in the past 5 years and now headed into retirement so I don’t need to risk anything and similar to you I have stable boring investments.
I do help my 2 sons and daughter invest into stuff that has lots of potential like tech, Tesla, etc...
I’ve had 2 big kills in the past 5 years and now headed into retirement so I don’t need to risk anything and similar to you I have stable boring investments.
I do help my 2 sons and daughter invest into stuff that has lots of potential like tech, Tesla, etc...
Pretty good return
now when you are retired ( thats my case ) i really dont think its a good idea to be fully invested in stock , but hey we all have a different level of tolerance 
Just to let you and everyone else know - Intermodal Divisions (the train lines that carry the shipping containers) are separate from the typical freight divisions of the railroad companies. It's basically two different companies within the railroad.
Yes, intermodal is getting (well, has gotten) much larger. If you're seeing more freight trains, it's because more stuff is being shipped. And I can confirm this. The rail companies are scrambling right now to upgrade facilities in their yards to become more efficient, use less energy and handle more freight with fewer breakdowns.
Well, you could, if you were serious about investing, and growing rich slowly.
Nobody ever gets rich quick, and your “quick kill” making a little profit in the market was cool, and fun, but did nothing to advance you towards to goal of having a million.
Disciplined, long term investing will get you there, you just have to be patient.
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
Yes, they are going to build a new yard here …
ironically this was a switchyard town back in the wild West business days 🖋
Outstanding advice!
What I have learned over the years is that tax discussion is always just politics, and everyone thinks their pet projects deserve the spending (military, social services, you decide).
Regarding to who pays for the QE, these days it is the foreign government who buy up our debts and the USD holders, this is why we have sky rocketing home prices and foreign investors are buying up US assets (they are not stupid, if you don't want to honor your debt by QE away you bet they will use it to buy your assets). Drug cartels, oil princes, Soviet mobs, Holy Sees, Chinese corrupted officials, Norway Singapore sovereign funds, the Queen, Japanese big corps, Korean Chaebol, etc they all will do it indirectly via some holding companies.
Fiscal responsibilities? We voted them out a long time ago, both sides and all level of US voters voted them out, now it is all about spending and inflating and the only way to protect against inflation is to borrow someone else's money to invest and let their money inflate away.
The only way to pay for it is a big crash that reset the prices, and someone will pay for it, and now no one wants to pay for it, and we just want to fight it out until someone bought too much assets and we can let them hold the bag. In the 90s it was the Asian financial crisis, in the 08 it was HSBC and foreign investors of MBS. This time it will be whoever buying out the SPAC, it will happen in a few years.
Regarding to who pays for the QE, these days it is the foreign government who buy up our debts and the USD holders, this is why we have sky rocketing home prices and foreign investors are buying up US assets (they are not stupid, if you don't want to honor your debt by QE away you bet they will use it to buy your assets). Drug cartels, oil princes, Soviet mobs, Holy Sees, Chinese corrupted officials, Norway Singapore sovereign funds, the Queen, Japanese big corps, Korean Chaebol, etc they all will do it indirectly via some holding companies.
Fiscal responsibilities? We voted them out a long time ago, both sides and all level of US voters voted them out, now it is all about spending and inflating and the only way to protect against inflation is to borrow someone else's money to invest and let their money inflate away.
The only way to pay for it is a big crash that reset the prices, and someone will pay for it, and now no one wants to pay for it, and we just want to fight it out until someone bought too much assets and we can let them hold the bag. In the 90s it was the Asian financial crisis, in the 08 it was HSBC and foreign investors of MBS. This time it will be whoever buying out the SPAC, it will happen in a few years.
Very few folks in the USA have the luck of FIRE. But it’s nice to dream about it.
Help me out, please. FIRE in this context means?
