stock market

[Wolf359]

Do you think a big correction is on the horizon and headed our way ?

4 or 5 months from now another stimulus will be passed. We are on a slippery slope....

.

I don't like to predict the future like that. Seen that happen over several decades. There's always a chicken little out there and eventually that chicken little is right. The answer is who knows, we already went through one last year.

The whole problem with the slippery slope argument is that it's the weakest one and one of the worst ones to use. In that time frame, I predict the pandemic will be over. I'm going to go out on a limb here and my prediction will be June at the earliest, maybe July or August if things slip. Of course all bets are off if there's a more dangerous variant but so far there isn't one and it looks like they can spin up a new shot in a few months and the manufacturing is in place so it won't take a whole year.

Bottom line, I don't see it. There was talk of another one after the last one was passed. None of that now and they got most of all the stimulus stuff they wanted in this round, why would there be a need for another one?

 

[Dave Hess]

Wolf,

I believe more stimulus in needed, maybe in August and then definitely in December just before the holidays.

I talk about all this on my small YouTube channel, can’t say anything here because it’s against the rules.

.

 

[Jack Watts]

Wolf,

I believe more stimulus in needed, maybe in August and then definitely in December just before the holidays.

I talk about all this on my small YouTube channel, can’t say anything here because it’s against the rules.

.

as someone who did successfully "time the market" during the crash last year, I have no problem saying that trying to time the market or corrections is a fool's errand. In my case, I happened to be in Asia when the virus hit. When China shut down the Spring Festival, I really believed it would be a world-altering event. They just don't do that. I realized that the rhetoric did not match the reality, and this was going to be really serious. I put everything I had into a no growth bond fund right then, and just hoped it didn't break the buck.. I didn't start putting it back until the S&P hit certain benchmarks (2300/2500/2700). Of course, my arm hurts from patting myself on the back and my wife can barely live with me because I'm always talking about how smart I am...

I also bought three individual stocks at the peak low point: Boeing, VDE and TSLA. If I were smarter it all would have been Tesla...but needless to say, the gains on all of those are ridiculous. Boeing almost doubled, VDE more than doubled, TSLA...well... I actually mentioned on here that it was a falling knife I was willing to grab. Wish I grabbed even harder! I bought these 3 individual stocks for specific reasons and had total confidence that they were "can't lose" at their nadir. I passed on plenty of others which make me wince a bit, but honestly one could have picked almost and 3 in late March and picked winners.

Here's the problem. I realize that I had some unique insight and some luck. I also realize that this was a (hopefully) once in a lifetime event. I didn't see the dotcom bust (and never touched my then-modest portfolio), and while I felt there was a housing bubble, I didn't make a single change before or after the housing crash. Eventually, I ended up on the right ride of things, eventually. Yes, I saw this one clear as day. I'm smart enough to know I won't see the next one. It seems many who did predict prior crashes feel it gives them some special insight into the future. And yet, it rarely works out that way. I'm at least smart enough to know what I don't know.

Yes, I think there are still some opportunities out there that will outperform the market overall--and I'll play around with 8% of my portfolio strictly for entertainment purposes. It's money I can afford to lose. If you don't have money you can afford to lose, stick it in a couple of diversified ETF's, and wait...

 

[Al]

No sane person believes this short term printing of money is a good thing for the of the country. Moves Bitcoin in the right direction. Won't affect me personally at the age of 75. Just interesting to watch the dumbing down of the country.

 

[Dave Hess]

Jack Watts,

I felt the 10 year bull run was coming to an end in late 2019 and went to 90% cash. This is what got me worried:

- Yield Inversion
- Buffet having $140B in cash on the sidelines
- Out of control nightly bank Repos and the Fed coming to the rescue
- Record number of CEOs in 2019 quitting, cashing out and dumping their stock / cashing in their stock options
- Crazy amount of corporate stock buybacks to pump and dump the stock while exponentially increasing toxic debt
- Long haul big rig 18 wheel truckers reporting the economy and manufacturing is slowing down. When truckers that crisscross the USA for 7-8 weeks (go home for 2 weeks) say loads are getting difficult to find...... that’s a BIG red flag. Truckers are no doubt the ’eyes’ of our economy, not some bozo on Mad Money TV show. American economy revolves around truckers and when they are parked at Flying J , Petro or Loves truck stop for 4 days with no loads to haul there’s trouble ahead.
- Truckers reported oil glut, mass layoffs and bankruptcies in oil & gas, fracking industry looong before crude oil price turned negative
- CSX, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern parking many locomotives and freight trains across the USA in storage yards


What do all these insiders know that that average small investor doesn’t know ?



Just like you.... I poured all my cash back into the market when the illness shut down the global economy. I missed the bottom by 2 weeks and simply rode the wave up till present day. I’m now taking profits here and there.

Folks can laugh at me for my analysis.... they won’t be laughing at the results of my crazy market gains.

.

 

[Jack Watts]

Jack Watts,

I felt the 10 year bull run was coming to an end in late 2019 and went to 90% cash. This is what got me worried:

- Yield Inversion
- Buffet having $140B in cash on the sidelines
- Out of control nightly bank Repos and the Fed coming to the rescue
- Record number of CEOs in 2019 quitting, cashing out and dumping their stock / cashing in their stock options
- Crazy amount of corporate stock buybacks to pump and dump the stock while exponentially increasing toxic debt
- Long haul big rig 18 wheel truckers reporting the economy and manufacturing is slowing down. When truckers that crisscross the USA for 7-8 weeks (go home for 2 weeks) say loads are getting difficult to find...... that’s a BIG red flag. Truckers are no doubt the ’eyes’ of our economy, not some bozo on Mad Money TV show. American economy revolves around truckers and when they are parked at Flying J , Petro or Loves truck stop for 4 days with no loads to haul there’s trouble ahead.
- Truckers reported oil glut, mass layoffs and bankruptcies in oil & gas, fracking industry looong before crude oil price turned negative
- CSX, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern parking many locomotives and freight trains across the USA in storage yards




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Dave, all of the things you mention were certainly great indicators that the bull market was going to come to an end--eventually. But when!? Remove the pandemic from the equation, and we really don't know. Maybe there would have been a slowing--maybe a major correction anyway. Maybe we've be having a crash now vs. then? Hypotheticals are tough--but typically there is some sort of event that causes the tipping point.

To me, it's similar to the housing crisis. We all know what *caused* it--tons of money being given to people who couldn't pay it back. But what really tipped the whole deal? Oil prices. When they skyrocketed, those on the margins suddenly couldn't afford to get around or heat their house. People started spending less. The the foreclosures started..and we know the rest...

So, where are we now? On the production end of things, I can tell you that factories in Asia that make consumer goods are at capacity--and then some... They are also playing the long game and not building out tons more capacity, because they don't know how long this will last. And there are bottlenecks at EVERY SINGLE STEP...from raw materials to getting containers unloaded--and every single step in between. So, that suggests to me that there will be unmet demand and a chugging economy for..."a while", and as the pandemic lessens through vaccines and herd immunity (here and world wide), the folks who have been most affected will get back on their feet.

I have no idea how long "a while" is though. And that's the tricky part. So, for me my decisions from this point on will really be based more on "when do I want to take that money" vs. "how do I maximize my gains".

 

[Wolf359]

as someone who did successfully "time the market" during the crash last year, I have no problem saying that trying to time the market or corrections is a fool's errand. In my case, I happened to be in Asia when the virus hit. When China shut down the Spring Festival, I really believed it would be a world-altering event. They just don't do that. I realized that the rhetoric did not match the reality, and this was going to be really serious. I put everything I had into a no growth bond fund right then, and just hoped it didn't break the buck.. I didn't start putting it back until the S&P hit certain benchmarks (2300/2500/2700). Of course, my arm hurts from patting myself on the back and my wife can barely live with me because I'm always talking about how smart I am...

I also bought three individual stocks at the peak low point: Boeing, VDE and TSLA. If I were smarter it all would have been Tesla...but needless to say, the gains on all of those are ridiculous. Boeing almost doubled, VDE more than doubled, TSLA...well... I actually mentioned on here that it was a falling knife I was willing to grab. Wish I grabbed even harder! I bought these 3 individual stocks for specific reasons and had total confidence that they were "can't lose" at their nadir. I passed on plenty of others which make me wince a bit, but honestly one could have picked almost and 3 in late March and picked winners.

Here's the problem. I realize that I had some unique insight and some luck. I also realize that this was a (hopefully) once in a lifetime event. I didn't see the dotcom bust (and never touched my then-modest portfolio), and while I felt there was a housing bubble, I didn't make a single change before or after the housing crash. Eventually, I ended up on the right ride of things, eventually. Yes, I saw this one clear as day. I'm smart enough to know I won't see the next one. It seems many who did predict prior crashes feel it gives them some special insight into the future. And yet, it rarely works out that way. I'm at least smart enough to know what I don't know.

Yes, I think there are still some opportunities out there that will outperform the market overall--and I'll play around with 8% of my portfolio strictly for entertainment purposes. It's money I can afford to lose. If you don't have money you can afford to lose, stick it in a couple of diversified ETF's, and wait...

Part of that is luck. Historically people who claimed they called it right don't go on to get it right multiple times. It's the same problem that mutual fund managers have, they can beat the market once in a while but it's hard for them to do it consistently. There's a lot of cash on the sidelines from people who sat out the pandemic and they're waiting to spend it. I'm surprised at the recent May 1 declaration but I guess that sounds about right considering how supplies are ramping up. If you look for doom and gloom, you can always find it.

 

[Dave Hess]

Quote:
”Dave, all of the things you mention were certainly great indicators that the bull market was going to come to an end--eventually. But when!? Remove the pandemic from the equation, and we really don't know. Maybe there would have been a slowing--maybe a major correction anyway. Maybe we've be having a crash now vs. then? Hypotheticals are tough--but typically there is some sort of event that causes the tipping point.”


I agree, but where’s there’s smoke....there’s fire. Some things simply can‘t be ignored.

As long as rent moratoriums and no evictions enforced the current situation will remain the same.

I talk about this with my YouTube subscribers. I give lots of quality advice over there and some of my analysis and investment strategies. Car repair and medical equipment repair / test equipment videos too.


.

 

[Wolf359]

I agree, but where’s there’s smoke....there’s fire. Some things simply can‘t be ignored.

As long as rent moratoriums and no evictions enforced the current situation will remain the same.

Are you properly accounting for the funds in the bailout? The last bill had 25 billion in rental payment and the new one has another 25 billion. Demand was estimated to be at 25 billion last January. Rules were also relaxed for unemployment and the $300 extra goes til September. Sounds like you're ignoring a few other things too. Strangely all my tenants are current on their rent. Most other landlords I know are also current although there's a few that have some tenants that are behind. Latest help allows for up to 10k toward past rent. Old program was only 4k. There's also another 10 billion toward mortgage aid in the last bill.

 

[Dave Hess]

Wolf,

Just because your tenants are all up to date on their rent doesn’t mean other landlords are in your situation.

All my accounts hitting new highs and I’m doing well. That’s not the same for others looking for work when the real unemployment number is around 20%...... not the 7% that’s stated.

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[gfh77665]

Folks can laugh at me for my analysis.... they won’t be laughing at the results of my crazy market gains.

I have the utmost respect for what Dave Hess has accomplished. Daves success has been nothing short of mind boggling.

 

[Ws6]

I cashed out. I did so a bit early, as I missed out on about 2k of profits, but I still turned $2800 into $9100, inside 1 year, which was very near to my goal. It was a fun ride!

 

[Wolf359]

Wolf,

Just because your tenants are all up to date on their rent doesn’t mean other landlords are in your situation.

All my accounts hitting new highs and I’m doing well. That’s not the same for others looking for work when the real unemployment number is around 20%...... not the 7% that’s stated.

.

There was a lot of rent money in the last couple of bills. Not sure if there's enough for all the outstanding rent as the main problem now seems to be processing all of it not that there isn't enough aid. Most other landlords I know are also doing ok and the ones that have a problem here and there, those are the ones they would normally have a problem with. The worst ones are probably the landlords that just have one property so that if one tenant isn't paying it's a disaster for them. Otherwise the landlords that I know that have 5+ properties are fine.

 

[PandaBear]

I am not good with the macro side of forecast or reading balance sheets, I do believe in the truckers and trains idling, but depends on the reason it is hard to say to me whether it is because "we are in a recession because things crash" or "we are not able to ship things because of pandemic lockdown and social distance affecting production and logistics".

Looking at vehicle production, do you think it is a chip shortage or people refusing to spend? The same goes for truck and train idling.

I can only focus on what I know, and base my plan on my risk tolerant and investment horizon. I am not the kind of person who leverage mortgage to the max 30 year fixed and then stuff my money in backdoor Roth IRA then pick a low cost S&P 500 fund. I am the kind of person who pay off my mortgage first, then with my super low living expense, use my domain knowledge to buy what people on Wall Street is afraid of buying, and double down when they manipulate the media to tell you what to do. I am not good with accounting and 10k reports, I just look at companies and their technologies and products and management, and buy for 5-10 year holding. I do not need the money for the next 20 years, and my investment amount is not big enough to skew the market like Warren Buffet and sovereign funds. I can see why WB stay with cash right now, I can see why others are charting and timing the market or not time the market, it doesn't matter to me what they do, I just do what I am good at and avoid what I am not good at.

In other word, tech stock all the way baby.

 

[ZeeOSix]

4 or 5 months from now another stimulus will be passed. We are on a slippery slope....

Doubt that. Economy will wind up as more and more people get vaccinated and heard immunity kicks in.

 

[alarmguy]

.. That’s not the same for others looking for work when the real unemployment number is around 20%...... not the 7% that’s stated.

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and ... ? Then what is different now then 20, 12, 5 or 2 years ago in how the unemployment number is reported? Answer = nothing.
You can build whatever you want into the numbers that you wish too but the number is still the number. So if as you state the "real" unemployment number is 20% then that isnt too bad the last time the official unemployment number was 7% as it is now.

and someday when the official unemployment number goes down to 5% you will call the "real" number 14%, that isnt to bad either because that is the way its been until others started with the "real" number. Its kind of like "wind chill" factor. Which makes everything a media sensation.

Not only that, but it will keep going down. What bothers me most is the massive federal spending that you promote. Borrowing money doesnt fix anything, someone has to pay for it. There will be a massive price to pay in the future decades for this unrelenting federal spending and borrowing. Its all good, this is what the people vote for and I am definitely in for the ride but I would give it all up if people would wake up and understand if you have to go to someone and borrow money to buy something it is quite clear you can not afford it, including that vehicle you park in your driveway that you say is yours but its really not, its owned by the person who you borrowed money from.
No different as far as the Feds. Except their income is unlimited out of your paycheck, which will get squeezed one day be it through inflation or taxes.

Ps. Bitcoin, for those who had it in the speculative part of their portfolio. Sometimes we need to push aside preconceived notions to get ahead of the bunch. Now one can decide either to sell it or just keep it for the fun to it. There are those who bought it before the summer of 2017 and just left it tucked aside, much like a precious coin they found.

 

[JeffKeryk]

What bothers me most is the massive federal spending that you promote. Borrowing money doesnt fix anything, someone has to pay for it. There will be a massive price to pay in the future decades for this unrelenting federal spending and borrowing. Its all good, this is what the people vote for and I am definitely in for the ride but I would give it all up if people would wake up and understand if you have to go to someone and borrow money to buy something it is quite clear you can not afford it, including that vehicle you park in your driveway that you say is yours but its really not, its owned by the person who you borrowed money from.
No different as far as the Feds. Except their income is unlimited out of your paycheck, which will get squeezed one day be it through inflation or taxes.

You understand that deficit spending has been going on for 50 years, or something like that, right?
"Deficits don't matter!"

We used to horror at small deficits, but those days are long gone.
Deficit spending is necessary at times, but not as a rule.

 

[alarmguy]

You understand that deficit spending has been going on for 50 years, or something like that, right?
"Deficits don't matter!"

We used to horror at small deficits, but those days are long gone.
Deficit spending is necessary at times, but not as a rule.

Not at this level, there is something called fiscal responsibility. This is now, right now it is the "rule" until proven otherwise where the public demands that it stop. It has been the rule for over a decade now, so the question is, when will it stop?
It hasn't stopped and there are no signs that it is going to stop, we are truly in uncharted territory but one just has to look at other economies to see how unchecked spending has worked for those countries.
Again, its been the rule for well over a decade far beyond what was necessary, let me know once they decide to stop it.
Now at 130% of the GDP, never think for a moment that this is just going to go away.
https://usdebtclock.org

Like I said, Im in for the ride, if this is what the public wants, Ill take full advantage.

 

[Wolf359]

Not at this level, there is something called fiscal responsibility. This is now, right now it is the "rule" until proven otherwise where the public demands that it stop. It has been the rule for over a decade now, so the question is, when will it stop?
It hasn't stopped and there are no signs that it is going to stop, we are truly in uncharted territory but one just has to look at other economies to see how unchecked spending has worked for those countries.
Again, its been the rule for well over a decade far beyond what was necessary, let me know once they decide to stop it.
Now at 130% of the GDP, never think for a moment that this is just going to go away.
https://usdebtclock.org

Like I said, Im in for the ride, if this is what the public wants, Ill take full advantage.

Cite your source. Look at Japan, huge debt but they don't have inflation, more like deflation. Also you might be worrying too much about taxes, I think Jeff Bezos is up 77 billion since the pandemic. As the saying goes, don't tax me, tax that guy hiding under the tree.

Don't forget that free money for the people and huge tax cuts from before both drive up the debt. But not too much outrage over the huge tax cuts.

 

[Dave Hess]

Wolf,

I believe more stimulus in needed, maybe in August and then definitely in December just before the holidays.

I talk about all this on my small YouTube channel, can’t say anything here because it’s against the rules.

.

alarmguy,


I reread my previous post and it should of read:
I believe more stimulus is coming.

I seriously think UBI will be a regular thing, no matter what they call it.
$3-5T more this year. Stimulus is narcan to economy. Some will spend money on necessities, others will spend it on weed, Newport cigarettes, scratch off lotto tickets, alcohol, tattoos, cellphones, big screen TV, Xbox, hair extensions, jewelry, glitter N glam, etc...

CEO of Walmart recently met with some folks from Washington and explained why more $$$ needs to be printed.

I talk about this on my channel...