stock market
- Thread starter Oildudeny
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Lets not forget bitcoin is up over 400% in the last 12 months, not a bad short term investment. Go out 5 years and we are looking at 800% to 1000%.
All rough numbers, five years ago $450 a coin, today $45,000 a coin. Im not promoting it, just stating some facts.I personally would get rid of it at those profits if others didn't already. I don't really believe in it but have had a very small amount for the last few years. Play money, better odds then the lottery.
) and could care less it fit becomes worthless or goes to 300,000 well, I guess would be nice.
Im conservative, invest in companies with products I believe in, growth and profits, not really a fast lane but to me, safe rational lane.
and .. .once again .. there is no such thing as a loss or profit until you sell it/turn it into cash, otherwise its unrealized gains and unrealized losses.
All rough numbers, five years ago $450 a coin, today $45,000 a coin. Im not promoting it, just stating some facts.I personally would get rid of it at those profits if others didn't already. I don't really believe in it but have had a very small amount for the last few years. Play money, better odds then the lottery.
) and could care less it fit becomes worthless or goes to 300,000 well, I guess would be nice.Im conservative, invest in companies with products I believe in, growth and profits, not really a fast lane but to me, safe rational lane.
and .. .once again .. there is no such thing as a loss or profit until you sell it/turn it into cash, otherwise its unrealized gains and unrealized losses.
Good point... Google has those Google vehicles driving around taking pictures. Google maps is a huge revenue source for them.
Tesla vehicles send data back to a Tesla database, mainly when drivers are on AP.
What they could do is have millions of cars send real time data the same way. Traffic conditions, accidents, new roads, weather conditions, you name it. The is a huge market going forward. I think you know the display sees traffic signals and orange cones in real time.
Think eyes everywhere. Waze on steroids.
You realize that phones have cameras just like Tesla and many cars have built in cameras for parking purposes. GM's Onstar is probably installed in more cars than Tesla. Mercedes lets you remote start your car via an app. It's not something that no other car company can spin up if there's demand for it. If you mount your phone on the dash, you can use your phone as a dash cam and that info you're looking for is also there. You just have to be willing to pay for the data to transmit it and to make use of it. My point is that it's not a market exclusive to Tesla. Mercedes has had Car to X communication since 2017 on the E class, showed up on the C class in 2020. Unfortunately it only communicates with other Mercedes.
https://www.futurecar.com/3948/How-...-Safe-Using-Car-to-X-Communication-Technology
Statistically, we already have that data from all the road sensors we have, and it does not need to be wireless (wired is better). I think at least in California it was operated by CalTran and you can see that map in 511.org.
Anyways, this kind of free data isn't worth 565B as of today, maybe 50M to 100M max if you have some way to advertise with it. Tesla's real value likely is in Elon's reputation, then the battery tech, then the IP of the cars, then maybe the solar roof. Connected cars info aren't worth much if you cannot sell you ads or charge a cut of something you spend money on (i.e. app store charging 30% of in app payment or app purchase). It is also not a car you can lease by the hours at ridiculous high price.
So back to its valuation, you need to trust that Elon will deliver something in massive growth so that it will justify the 123X PE today, growing into something like a 30X PE in the future, for example. It is not a stock that will survive if Elon is gone.
There is a wireless band reserved for car to car communication. I don't think currently anyone is using it well. To correctly use it what you would use is the vehicle's sensor input from the car in front of you, like speed, brake pad and throttle position, Lidar and cruise control, accident detection (airbag, bumper sensors, engine failure, ABS, traction control, tire pressure, etc).
For this to work there needs to be a mandate, which we have none, and for this to work it has to be free for everyone and standardized, which we haven't.
If done right you can have 1 traction problem reported to 10 other cars behind you and avoid massive pile up, and if it works correctly it would means we no longer need driverless car or cruise control, the road will drives you, the car in front of you will drives you, the traffic light controller will drives you.
Yes ^ and as far as battery technology, right now GM it can be said GM is at the forefront with its soft flexible batteries delivering the same specs as Tesla's hard cells at lower cost. No need to repeat myself but ...
GM PE/ 8.98 ... $6.18 a share
Tesla PE/ 587 ... $1.00 a share
Not promoting one over the other but there is a lot of hope and promise in Tesla to make money some day. I dont discount them making money in things other then EV's such as its solar systems, I just dont think in the near term meaning during this decade they can compete in EVs.
I think the market is going to get saturated with EVs to the point of too many of them and no place to go. But take my comments with a grain of salt, I know nothing about the company and I like it that way. So far ...
)Im kind of getting the itch to invest in something new but just dont know what that is yet. Maybe by the end of the year I will be able to buy GM at $24 again, like it was last year ... but not exactly a thrilling prospect, not much of a vehicle investor.
How about we talk about some other stocks for a change?
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GM's EV business gets diluted into the main business of making cars and trucks. Tesla not so much. You cannot look at the 2 companies' share that way. On the flip side GM is a safer bet even if they cannot make money on EV, because the loss would get diluted as well as gain into the main businesses. Tesla, is go big or go home, startup style.
Recently due to the Chia boom I noticed like others here that a lot of large cap SSDs and HDDs are up in prices and low in inventories. People are starting to use the old SAS enterprise drive to build out their rigs for Chia plotting. WDC / STX stores are going up, and it aligns with the memory and storage boom and bust cycles. I am going in, hoping for them to go up another 30% and peak then sell, waiting for another bust and then go back in.
I don’t buy stocks when I don’t understand the fundamentals or the business. Not afraid of new economy or tech. I’ve got a lot in both.
But I completely missed the dot com bubble. Watched the run up, puzzled by valuations, and the buzz on companies, and then missed the crash when everyone else realized that the emperor had no clothes.
I understand Tesla’s business and like the product but the valuation makes no sense. I’m on the sidelines with TSLA. Watching out of curiosity.
AMZN made sense to me. Bought it at $252/share. Wish I had bought more.
But I completely missed the dot com bubble. Watched the run up, puzzled by valuations, and the buzz on companies, and then missed the crash when everyone else realized that the emperor had no clothes.
I understand Tesla’s business and like the product but the valuation makes no sense. I’m on the sidelines with TSLA. Watching out of curiosity.
AMZN made sense to me. Bought it at $252/share. Wish I had bought more.
At the moment I don't understand any of it, and just stick with funds. Not sure if safer or not, miss out on the big wins but hopefully miss out on the big losses too. Leave it to people smarter than me.
I had no plans to get any individual stocks but am getting some through work all the same. Maybe I'll have to get some play money and get a couple more to keep it company.
I had no plans to get any individual stocks but am getting some through work all the same. Maybe I'll have to get some play money and get a couple more to keep it company.
Low cost (fee) ETFs and mutual funds are the way to go. All you need is a mix of 3 or 4.
I also bought a few shares of Amazon and it acts like a mutual fund with so many companies under the umbrella of the mother ship.
Good to see IRS crackdown on Bitcoin gains. Ive paid my fair share of taxes on my gains and so should the Bitcoin traders.
I also bought a few shares of Amazon and it acts like a mutual fund with so many companies under the umbrella of the mother ship.
Good to see IRS crackdown on Bitcoin gains. Ive paid my fair share of taxes on my gains and so should the Bitcoin traders.
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Not to dissuade you from picking a few stocks but just a few things to keep in mind. About 75% of actively traded mutual fund managers whose job full time is to buy and sell stocks for their fund can't beat the S&P 500. Standard advice is not to put more than 5-10% into one stock. When you do that, you in essence become your own mutual fund manager. So while you may have a few hits, they may be evened out by the losses. And you're spending time keeping up to manage your mutual fund. Of course sometime the small investors beat the big ones and maybe the way to go is to go big instead of just 5-10% in one stock. I'm just sorta content with either tracking the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. It has a decent enough track record and I've spent a few years trying to beat it, haven't been that lucky so I guess I gave up. Good luck if you want to try it though.
To do individual stocks you have to do your homework and know the industry and company you invest in. You are competing with others doing this full time, and the only way to win over them is 1) not having to follow the same rule a fund must follow (diversify, not focusing too much on one company or sector, having enough risk tolerance or ignorance to go bigger in risk than fund has to stay within, 2) know some industry insight before the finance guys get to it, it may not be insider trading but you have to know something that the fund managers cannot act upon, 3) having an investment horizon longer than the fund (1 quarter? 1 year? etc) and willing to double down when something goes down instead of stop loss like a fund manager does to ride out the storm.
It is not for everyone and it is not the same stock for everyone. I wouldn't touch Tesla not because I don't like the company but I don't know enough of it. On the other hands I double down on a lot of companies and go on roller coaster ride with them (i.e. bought AMD at $8 and again at $28, bought SanDisk back when it tank from $80 to $28, etc) because I work in the industry and know what fund managers may not know yet. This is what Peter Lynch said you need to focus on what you know, instead of what is popular.
Fund is great as long as they are low cost and diversified. Return and risk will align in the long run and the only thing you can control is the cost.
Oh I know. Been given my choice I would not get any stock at all. But it’s being given to me so... I plan on keeping my money in the various funds I am in, and leave my auto deposit going to them.
Just seems weird to have a particular stock in the mix.
When I say play money I mean a couple grand, nothing more, way less than 5% of my portfolio in picking stocks.
Just seems weird to have a particular stock in the mix.
When I say play money I mean a couple grand, nothing more, way less than 5% of my portfolio in picking stocks.
I agree with the first two but I dont understand the constant comments on "bitcoin crackdown"
There is no crackdown except what you read in the media, its a media story, like all news stories now. Most people would be best off ignoring the hype and move forward.
The IRS enforces tax code doesnt matter the source of income. Being bitcoin is new, with new exchanges. They are letting the jealous public who didnt make money on bitcoin, that they are also going to enforce taxing those profits from the tax evaders, just like any investment. This makes the public feel good about going after the "bad guys" again. The ones that make money for nothing, except the good sense to do it.
Thing is, its nothing more then a needle in the haystack of revenue and just another source of laws that will govern the collection of tax revenue on a new product. Nothing more, there is no crack down, there are enforcement actions, but that can be taken on anyone who makes money.
Back to your first two sentences, for people who want safe and stable income far above bank interest, Index funds are the safe way to go.
Just about every investment tries and mostly fails to beat the market index over a period of a decade or two to three.
Except for maybe the good sense to buy real property by having renters pay the mortgage.
I don't think you are you keeping up with the news. The "crackdown" is coming from China, specifically, their State Council's Financial Stability and Development Committee. Not the media. Stop blaming the media when it's an actual entity that is doing the "crackdown".
https://www.reuters.com/technology/...bitcoin-mining-trading-activities-2021-05-21/
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-slips-37k-china-vicecrackdown-mining
Wolf,
I think he meant the IRS and Operation Hidden Treasure.
https://www.newsweek.com/irs-operation-hidden-treasure-looks-do-some-bitcoin-mining-its-own-1575799
https://www.coindesk.com/gensler-regulatory-clarity-dcea
Some folks might end up like Willie Nelson and Wesley Snipes....
.
I think he meant the IRS and Operation Hidden Treasure.
https://www.newsweek.com/irs-operation-hidden-treasure-looks-do-some-bitcoin-mining-its-own-1575799
https://www.coindesk.com/gensler-regulatory-clarity-dcea
Some folks might end up like Willie Nelson and Wesley Snipes....
.
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