stock market

Good luck to you, but I don't think you will need it.
I suspect I am in "ok" shape. I did start at a meager level when I was 23, and when I hit 36 I "woke up" and realized that needed to do better. Most advice I come across says to have 5x your salary when you are 45, and I might get close to 4x. But I can continue to contribute at a high rate so I should be able to catch up. But compared to what the pundits say I should have, I feel behind.

Compared to the average and even median, I waaaay ahead. I just don't think the average & median 401k balances are that impressive.
 
I suspect I am in "ok" shape. I did start at a meager level when I was 23, and when I hit 36 I "woke up" and realized that needed to do better. Most advice I come across says to have 5x your salary when you are 45, and I might get close to 4x. But I can continue to contribute at a high rate so I should be able to catch up. But compared to what the pundits say I should have, I feel behind.

Compared to the average and even median, I waaaay ahead. I just don't think the average & median 401k balances are that impressive.
Are you self directed or are you working with a team of advisors like Charles Schwab?
 
Are you self directed or are you working with a team of advisors like Charles Schwab?
Self. I think this year or next I will see an adviser and see what needs to change—I figured I needed to wait until I had some money in the market before doing anything.

am using Fidelity as it is available through work. Bunch of funds available to me.
 
Tesla to me is an "idea" and if you like the idea then invest what you can afford to lose. No different then bitcoin. Pure spec play.
Tesla has nothing more of a product then any other automaker and its selling at 579 times earnings.
Now in the 560 range down from its high of 880 only 5 months ago.

In just a few years the market will be saturated with EV's from GM and Ford. Im just not sure how much of a spec play Tesla can be, but then again, I dont know anything about the company and dont follow it.
Alll I do know is GM sells for 7 times earnings ... vs Tesla 579 ... it just seems to be one of those media darlings to me, nothing more.Unless of course you invested a while back.. if so I think I would move on ...
Exactly. Tesla’s valuation is completely out to lunch. The only thing driving the increase in price is people willing to pay a higher price for the stock. It will crash at some point.

Shopify is the only other stock that is as bad or worse.

I consider both of them “internet fanboi” stocks. Would never consider investing in either.
 
Last edited:
I'm trying to make up for lost time. I can't shovel more in as I have to get by (family at home plus a mortgage) so I have to leave it risky. Mostly in growth funds at the moment, going to leave it there until I'm less than 10 years out from retirement--then I'll rebalance and slowly get some portion into lower risk (not all, just enough for a few years of living).

On the plus side I have 20 years until retirement--22 until full social security, but if I get lucky maybe I can quit before then. On the minus side I still have 28 years left on the mortgage. Wife says she'll start working again a couple of years so at that point we might focus on the mortgage. But still.

You cannot make up for lost time or lost capital. What you are trying to do is taking on more risk attempting to get more return, risk and return are always proportional and you cannot get more return by taking more risk without realizing it.

You can contribute more now regardless of what already happened, has already happened. You could not go back in time to contribute more and spend less on personal spending.
 
You can contribute more now regardless of what already happened, has already happened. You could not go back in time to contribute more and spend less on personal spending.
Well one way would be to sell the stuff that you spent the personal spending on and invest that although unless you bought wisely whatever you bought is probably worth less now than when originally purchased unlike investments.
 
Well one way would be to sell the stuff that you spent the personal spending on and invest that although unless you bought wisely whatever you bought is probably worth less now than when originally purchased unlike investments.
That's like selling you regret not buying stock but borrowing money to buy a Mustang, and now you are regretting, and you sell your Mustang to go back into the stock market.

What is done is done, selling your Mustang may recoup some loss but it won't go back in time to get you back the stock you didn't buy. You certainly couldn't "catch up" by selling your Mustang and buy high risk penny stock hoping to catch up to the other guys buying S&P 500 back then. The risk is different, the chances of loss is much higher with more risks.
 
You cannot make up for lost time or lost capital. What you are trying to do is taking on more risk attempting to get more return, risk and return are always proportional and you cannot get more return by taking more risk without realizing it.
True, but I can try to dump as much money in for as long as I can. I lost out on years of accumulation--but doing something now will sure beat doing the alternative (doing nothing and feeling sorry while doing that). 20 years at over 20% income to retirement, I do believe that will net me something.
 
True, but I can try to dump as much money in for as long as I can. I lost out on years of accumulation--but doing something now will sure beat doing the alternative (doing nothing and feeling sorry while doing that). 20 years at over 20% income to retirement, I do believe that will net me something.
You are correct and if you do some reading, searching, one of the best investing strategies is "value" investing, you could, some do, even beat their peers. Heck it was made Warren Buffet who he is.
Just because many stocks are at sky high valuations, there are many companies that are and many other companies not yet in a favorable light as the high profile stocks.

You could go real safe and choose, based on history some good mutual funds or look for value stocks or at least learn about value investing.
IF and when the market goes down you will be in a good position, to even buy more shares of your companies if you wish.

Example, as highlighted in Barrons (I think this past weekend)
The darling of Wall Street, gets all the press Tesla selling at over 500 times earnings vs GM selling at 6 times earnings. If the market gets trashed where do you think you will lose...? Heck, What about the people who paid over $700 a share for Tesla only a few months ago? Already lost up to a third of their money. I didnt own either one, though GM is on my mind.

Wells Fargo and the bank stocks in general got trashed last year. I started buying Wells Fargo at $42 a share in March 2020 and purchased more of it every single week for the last year all the way down to $23 a share and all the way up to $42 a share just a month or two ago, Now just holding and stopped buying, moved onto accumulating shares in an international fund, thinking maybe the world will start exiting Covid by the end of this year.

Boring old Walmart, Purchased $90 a share in 2019 now around 140 and was up all last year through the pandemic

TMobile, great CEO over 100 Million people have access to their 5 g network now plus rolled out wireless home internet. This year they are adding access to 2 million more people a week across the country when all of last year, its competition like Verizon only added access to 2 million people the ENTIRE YEAR OF 2020. See the scale?

NONE of this post matters, others have done far, far, far better then me but we never know what the future holds and a lot of this high profile stocks taking off to the moon is being in the right place at the right time. No different then people playing lottery tickets.
If you start off sticking to value investing, learning as you go, you then may find some "value" in companies that are on the cutting edge of something and get in early with a small part of your portfolio for the speculative part.

The stocks I mentioned above I do still own, I also have another account with funds. I am thinking about switching things up, we will see.
I am at at the preserving capital part of my life without taking on too much risk, last year I was feeling awesome great when the market was getting bashed as well as almost every stock and yet, I was still up at the time this was happening.

There are many who do better and many more who lose all their savings and I am just giving you a small period of time of investing as an example of my preserving capital and doing far better then bonds or bank interest with what I feel is acceptable low risk.
Once you can value invest, without question you will find companies with great promise that you can put some speculative capital into.

Ps you will always hear about people doing great, rarely when they are doing poor. You have a long time to go, maybe not the right time at this point but picking up a property where the tenants pay everything is a nice thing to have in retirement.
It cost you almost nothing, tenants pay for the property and when all paid for, you have real property and real real estate to keep collecting on or to sell off. Its the gift that gives forever and someone else paid for it!

I never made a fortune in the market, I use the market to make money on my money far better then any bank, but my wealth (thank god and my retirement) comes from income on real property, paid for in full decades ago, set in stone, small building, mix of commercial/residential, triple net lease, heck haven't even been there in a decade, just collect the rent. If I sell value is up roughly 400% in a bad year. But no need to sell because the rental income is high enough that return on equity is more renting then if if I sold and put in a stable fund.

Anyway, many people become rich the old fashion way, investing in a real property and having someone else pay for it by renting it out to them.
One thing for sure, is the ground we all walk on will always be there (just dont buy oceanfront (ha ha)
 
Last edited:
True, but I can try to dump as much money in for as long as I can. I lost out on years of accumulation--but doing something now will sure beat doing the alternative (doing nothing and feeling sorry while doing that). 20 years at over 20% income to retirement, I do believe that will net me something.
Don't look back; the past is gone. Focus on now and the future.
I think you are on a great track. I would, however, talk to Charles Schwab. Investment counseling is what they do.
 
Example, as highlighted in Barrons (I think this past weekend)
The darling of Wall Street, gets all the press Tesla selling at over 500 times earnings vs GM selling at 6 times earnings. If the market gets trashed where do you think you will lose...? Heck, What about the people who paid over $700 a share for Tesla only a few months ago? Already lost up to a third of their money.
There is a lot of good information in your post. Regarding Tesla, are you recommending buying the dip? TSLA is at its lowest point in about 7 months.
 
There is a lot of good information in your post. Regarding Tesla, are you recommending buying the dip? TSLA is at its lowest point in about 7 months.
I don’t know if anyone is good enough to answer that, I’m certainly not. One thing I learned a long time ago just don’t fight the market. I don’t know anything about Tesla and never cared too.
From a valuation point on any stock people are placing a value on Tesla based on what people are hoping it will do and if it doesn’t people will lose their shirts.
 
I don’t know if anyone is good enough to answer that, I’m certainly not. One thing I learned a long time ago just don’t fight the market. I don’t know anything about Tesla and never cared too.
From a valuation point on any stock people are placing a value on Tesla based on what people are hoping it will do and if it doesn’t people will lose their shirts.
While there's probably nothing wrong with Tesla, it's just that the stock price is way out of wack with the rest of the market. The days of it going 5x or 10x higher are probably behind it unless it drops 5-10x first and then recovers. Right now the company is valued more than others like JP Morgan, Visa, Walmart, Mastercard, Bank of America, Home Depot, Proctor and Gamble, Disney, Coke-Cola, Cisco, Pfizer, etc. It would basically have to be perfect to sustain those numbers over the long term. Too much history to show that it doesn't but the game gets played the same way every time. AOL soared for a while and then crashed and it's merely a footnote now. Same with many other companies. Come back to this thread in 5-10 years and we'll see where we're at.
 
No doubt Tesla has defied all the odds and bucks the trends. All the rules are off.

I think what makes them different is their tech. Can you imagine a fleet of millions of cars reporting GPS real time? That's worth billion$ per year in revenue alone.
 
I think that Bitcoin and Ethereum are on there way back or at least have bottomed. I have $4600 in both and am up $1000. My son cashed in most of his at probably 42K per coin ($800K) so he is off aroud $400K) from the high of $60. He said he doesn't feel to bad abou taking a 1000 fold profit after 8 years. He still has $250K in Bitcoin and a few others.
 
Elon gambled with bitcoin and if he can gamble with doggie coin etc he will.. he's got tremendous debts to payback. Many young investors see Elon as a God and tend to follow him, he teased the world with his bitcoin mumbo and looks like many investors gave him a free loan buying it and many lost their shirts when he pulled out.
 
Back
Top Bottom