Solar power is getting cheaper every year

Status
Not open for further replies.
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Pretty good for new technology. What would the cost have been 10 years ago?


Way more for sure...

but it's small(ish) and by the looks of it needs someone home using power in the middle of the day (or a bigger battery)...it would NEARLY do my family if my wife wasn't working.
 
More solar is coming on line and in California it's predicted to radically change the load shape.
CAISODuckCurve.png
This is from: http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plug...-grid-operator/ That high evening load when air conditioning is huge can be lowered through better building design and by using "excess" mid-day solar power to store cold for later use. Some buildings, those with huge thermal mass, can already coast throughout the day without becoming uncomfortably warm and can be cooled at night or during peak solar, but those are a small minority of the installed base. Houses can be, and are being, built to store and release heat diurnally to massively reduce energy consumption. This needs to move from being fringe to the main stream to have wide impact.

Yes, there is a large base load that can't be served as-is by solar. Yes, solutions to solar integration are lagging behind the need, but that happens in many places other than electrical generation as well. Solar is reducing fossil fuel use and will continue to reduce fossil fuel use.
Here in the Pacific Northwest we can accommodate a fair bit of wind and solar by ramping up and down hydro generation. California doesn't have this kind of storage and needs other solutions yesterday. What needs to happen in California to integrate more solar is to shift the load timing and CASIO is proposing to do that primarily through rates, but other means (better buildings, smart grid, etc) will be necessary at some point. There are dozens of demand response projects in the works, but until electricity prohibitively expensive, or other incentives are introduced, consumers aren't going to do much.

It's going to be a long time before thermal generation goes away completely, if at all, and I'm guessing won't happen before we go extinct as a species. I'd like to move that extinction out so I'm pro-solar.
 
Joshua Skinner,
here's the "duck curve"...

http://www.bobistheoilguy.com/forums/ubbthreads.php/topics/4011844/Electricity_"duck&

It's interesting that in order to change people's behaviours it has to get expensive...it defies the statement of "cheap green renewable" purveyors...and mean that electric car charging will have to take place in the middle of the day, rather than overnight...ultimately.
 
Originally Posted By: bvance554
Congratulations to CA ^. You get less than 5% of your electricity from coal. You are the cleanest people on Earth, and you can rest easily tonight. Hats off to you guys. You steal your kilowatts from other states just like you do your water. Then you say hey look how awesome we are over here, we got it all figured out. CA is a poor example, of pretty much everything.

We still have few coal power plant in state, in 2014 it produced 0.5% of all electricity. But we import about 30% of all electricity we used in 2014, of those 30% import 4% was from coal power plant(s). I wish we only import cleaner source of electricity such as natural gas power plants. But the power companies do what they do to make extra profit or whatever other reasons.

Use this calculation from US Dept of Energy to compare your state with national average of emission for various vehicle types. I think the data used in this calculation didn't include electricity import from other states or other countries.

http://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.php

The state that has electricity produced from mostly coal power plants is West Virginia, 96W% of all electricity is from coal so that BEV is almost as bad as gas engine vehicle.
 
I missed that thread. I'll get caught up.

People are lazy in many respects. If "it" works and their situation compares, or appears to compare, favorably with their neighbors most people won't change. Psychology/sociology says there has to be a certain amount of discomfort or a clear reward for people to change their behavior. Expensive power is discomfort. A better environment is a reward for some. Some people adopt solar because it's a green ego boost to impress neighbors. Some people genuinely care about the environment and earnestly try to reduce their impact on the planet. Saving the plant is a seen as less direct reward in most cases, but it's those people who see value in going solar who buy in once an affordability threshold is reached.

Yes, electric cars have a part to play in the smart grid.
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
OK, the world can (and should) be powered by rooftop solar...where do you get your power from the other 16 hours of the day, or is the sun 24/7 over your house?

That's what batteries are for. The sun is always shining somewhere.

How hard is it to imagine a new grid architecture that leverages those 2 facts?
 
Originally Posted By: Uber_Archetype
Originally Posted By: Shannow
OK, the world can (and should) be powered by rooftop solar...where do you get your power from the other 16 hours of the day, or is the sun 24/7 over your house?

That's what batteries are for. The sun is always shining somewhere.

How hard is it to imagine a new grid architecture that leverages those 2 facts?


reread BOTH of my posts that you poopoohed...what do you think STORAGE is/means ?

And THAT's the expensive part about "cheap renewables"...25c/kwh round trip expensive.
 
Originally Posted By: CharlieBauer
Originally Posted By: bvance554
You steal your kilowatts from other states just like you do your water. Then you say hey look how awesome we are over here, we got it all figured out. CA is a poor example, of pretty much everything.


What??????????? Steal? What????????

Most water used here is for agriculture.

Which mostly leaves CA and feeds all of America.

We would be self reliant for water if you didn't steal our food!
grin.gif


And we only use so much electricity because we're busy giving you Facebook, Twitter, Google, Apple, Hollywood movies and the Kardashians.


Ok. You have a point. I like when I pick up some rasberries at the store and on the label it says 'producd in Chile.' Thats r
Efficient. Nothing against Chile, but it doesn't sit right with me to ship some berries that far, so I go without.
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Here's what I mean by cheap renewables will become too expensive to charge your EVs.


Quote:
As Bloomberg explains: "It’s a self-reinforcing cycle. As more renewables are installed, coal and natural gas plants are used less. As coal and gas are used less, the cost of using them to generate electricity goes up. As the cost of coal and gas power rises, more renewables will be installed."


Quote:
It's kind of like a flywheel, and the more solar panels we install, the more wind turbines are built, the faster it spins. At some point, doesn't make any sense to run fossil fuels on sunny or windy days, and overall capacity factors go down enough that prices are simply not competitive with storage, and rather than build new natural gas plants, utilities will simply buy more renewables combined with storage.

Going back to the main point of this thread: "Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) received a bid this year for 800 megawatts at a jaw-dropping “US 2.99 cents per kilowatt hour.”

DEWA is an established power company of Dubai. This 800 megawatts solar farm will not be online for sometime, currently they have their electricity generated from several power plants.

Dubai is in Middle-East it is very hot from noon until 10-11 PM, it cools down a little from midnight until sunrise, then it gets hotter every hour.

Peak power consumption is from around 1-2PM until 10-11PM, to avoid black out(s) DEWA has enough power plants that run at full capacity to satisfy peak demand. I don't know how many power plants DEWA owns or how much electricity they supply to their customers in 1 peak hour, but I guess that it is much more than 800 megawatts.

What happen to all power plants at off-peak hours ? All power plants run at max as it was at peak hours ? Only some power plants are running to match demand from midnight till morning, the rest would be idle or operate at much lower rate. Then they start to ramp up from the morning till noon and running at max capacity at peak demand at around noon again.

Now, when the 800 megawatts solar power is online next year or the year after, it will replace some of the current power plants during daytime, but none of the current power plants will be decommissioned, they will be maintain to be able to use in case of emergency. The benefit of this solar power is reduce pollution during the day, and at US 2.99 cents it is hard to beat.

Summary, DEWA is an established power company ran by people who know the business of supply and demand of electricity in any given 24 hours time frame. They know that some of the days solar will produce ZERO power same for wind, so they need some back up. They should know how to incorporate this 800 megawatts to their total power.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: bvance554
Ok. You have a point. I like when I pick up some raspberries at the store and on the label it says 'product in Chile.' Thats r
Efficient. Nothing against Chile, but it doesn't sit right with me to ship some berries that far, so I go without.

Most fruits and vegetables we buy at local grocery stores and farmer markets are locally grown. They are very tasty and fairly cheap too, especially at the middle of the season they are on sale of 99 cent or less per package. One pound sweet and juicy strawberry for 99 cents is hard to beat. Raspberries, blackberries and blueberries are 99 cents for 6oz.
 
Originally Posted By: CharlieBauer
Does the price of non renewable electricity include externalities?

Digging Deeper, Why Renewables are Beating Coal and Gas in Some Parts of the World

Quote:
More Numbers

To get down to the nitty-gritty, specifically, the global average LCOE for onshore wind dropped from $85 per megawatt-hour in the first half of the year, to $83 in H2, while that for crystalline silicon PV solar fell from $129 to $122.

In the same period, the LCOE for coal-fired generation increased from $66 per MWh to $75 in the Americas, from $68 to $73 in Asia-Pacific, and from $82 to $105 in Europe. The LCOE for combined-cycle gas turbine generation rose from $76 to $82 in the Americas, from $85 to $93 in Asia-Pacific and from $103 to $118 in EMEA.

Seb Henbest, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, commented: “Our report shows wind and solar power continuing to get cheaper in 2015, helped by cheaper technology but also by lower finance costs. Meanwhile, coal and gas have got more expensive on the back of lower utilization rates, and in Europe, higher carbon price assumptions following passage of the Market Stability Reserve reform.”

Among other low-carbon energy technologies, offshore wind reduced its global average LCOE from $176 per MWh, to $174, but still remains significantly more expensive than wind, solar PV, coal or gas, while biomass incineration saw its levelized cost stay steady at $134 per MWh. Nuclear, like coal and gas, has very different LCOE levels from one region of the world to another, but both the Americas and the Europe, Middle East and Africa region saw increases in levelized costs, to $261 and $158 per MWh respectively.

Among the country-level findings of the BNEF study are that onshore wind is now fully cost-competitive with both gas-fired and coal-fired generation, once carbon costs are taken into account, in the UK and Germany. In the UK, onshore wind comes in on average at $85 per MWh in the second half of 2015, compared to $115 for combined-cycle gas and $115 for coal-fired power; in Germany, onshore wind is at $80, compared to $118 for gas and $106 for coal.

In China, onshore wind is cheaper than gas-fired power, at $77 per MWh versus $113, but it is much more expensive still than coal-generated electricity, at $44, while solar PV power is at $109. In the US, coal and gas are still cheaper, at $65 per MWh, against onshore wind at $80 and PV at $107.
 
Back when we lived off grid about 20 yrs ago it had cost us around .36kh to produce power after all said and done. At this time local pud power was .07 kh.....so back then solar was not cheap but that was our only alternative.
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
And THAT's the expensive part about "cheap renewables"...25c/kwh round trip expensive.


Compare to the highest tier at 40c/kwh, 25c is cheap.

Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
Yes, electric cars have a part to play in the smart grid.


EV got free charging at most workplace around here and on average 2%-5% of the cars here are plug in, I suspect that is a way to prevent duck curve ramp and of course kickback to the car and battery companies.

Most importantly people buy EV to get on HOV lane to avoid traffic, gas and electricity is cheap relatively speaking, even cars are cheap compare to 1 hr saved in commute time round trip.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
They do plug into your house wiring so they are connected to the grid. Basically your house will use it before it gets to the grid though for the most part. The inverter needs grid power to work though, so it shuts down when that is lost. No need for switch gear.


Let's say most people shouldn't consider a non certified inverter for liability and fire hazard reason.
 
Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
They do plug into your house wiring so they are connected to the grid. Basically your house will use it before it gets to the grid though for the most part. The inverter needs grid power to work though, so it shuts down when that is lost. No need for switch gear.


Let's say most people shouldn't consider a non certified inverter for liability and fire hazard reason.


LOL, you don't seriously consider that a guy who pours used engine oil on the ground in place of bitumen cares about anything resembling codes and liability do you ?
 
Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Originally Posted By: Shannow
And THAT's the expensive part about "cheap renewables"...25c/kwh round trip expensive.


Compare to the highest tier at 40c/kwh, 25c is cheap.


that 25c is only the round trip through the battery (storage and discharge cost), not the retail cost....Still have to generate it, distribute it, waste some of it and add profit and overhead...in Oz terms, that would add another 15c US.
 
My province of Ontario power authority is an exact explanation of the self-destruction when politicians embark on feel-good, subsidized "green power". In fact, two gas plants needed to be built, because renewables were deemed so unreliable. Of course, these two plants were nuked not for the optics, but because of the NIMBY's. Now we're left over with a one BILLION dollar bill for something that was never built.




My hydro bills for 800 square feet were over $400 a month a few winters ago in my last place (baseboard heat).


Running those numbers on NY rates, I'd pay somewhere around $120-140 (exchange included).


Literally, energy poverty. I was spending more on hydro than on food.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top