Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Collapses

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I stick to index funds, tough to beat the S&P 500.
If interested, here is the bank holding company that I was burned by. Had 40k usd worh of stock, it went to essentially zero. All while the corporate directors walked away with crown jewel.

The original complaint charges that Reliance, the Taylor family, certain other insiders, its auditors and its financial advisors inflated the assets and income of the Company's subprime auto loan business by grossly understating its bad loan reserve thereby defrauding purchasers of Reliance stock during the Class Period in violation of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and state law. This enabled the Taylor family to induce shareholders to approve a split-off to the Taylors, Reliance's dominant shareholders, of the profitable Cole Taylor Bank subsidiary while leaving the public stockholders with Reliance's Cole Taylor Finance Co. subsidiary. At the time of the shareholder vote defendants represented the finance subsidiary as a rapidly growing and profitable subprime auto loan business when, in fact, it was technically insolvent. The complaint further alleges that only a few days after the February 12, 1997 completion of the spin-off, defendants began to reveal Reliance's problems. In the following nine months, defendants were forced to announce $110 million in charges against income to add to Reliance's loan loss reserves. In light of these belated disclosures, Reliance recently filed for bankruptcy protection. Its stock price plummeted to less than $0.25 per share from its Class Period high of $31.25.
 
If interested, here is the bank holding company that I was burned by. Had 40k usd worh of stock, it went to essentially zero. All while the corporate directors walked away with crown jewel.

The original complaint charges that Reliance, the Taylor family, certain other insiders, its auditors and its financial advisors inflated the assets and income of the Company's subprime auto loan business by grossly understating its bad loan reserve thereby defrauding purchasers of Reliance stock during the Class Period in violation of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and state law. This enabled the Taylor family to induce shareholders to approve a split-off to the Taylors, Reliance's dominant shareholders, of the profitable Cole Taylor Bank subsidiary while leaving the public stockholders with Reliance's Cole Taylor Finance Co. subsidiary. At the time of the shareholder vote defendants represented the finance subsidiary as a rapidly growing and profitable subprime auto loan business when, in fact, it was technically insolvent. The complaint further alleges that only a few days after the February 12, 1997 completion of the spin-off, defendants began to reveal Reliance's problems. In the following nine months, defendants were forced to announce $110 million in charges against income to add to Reliance's loan loss reserves. In light of these belated disclosures, Reliance recently filed for bankruptcy protection. Its stock price plummeted to less than $0.25 per share from its Class Period high of $31.25.

Precisely why I don't invest in a single company. But what do I know? I remember being in a computer store in 1998 laughing at this little section of iMacs thinking Apple was going out of business while the rest of the store was picking up all the Windows PCs they could.
 
It was an unprecedented period of prosperity for some. Ask the people in manufacturing how well the last 35 years have treated them.

Perhaps more importantly, the difference between your period of prosperity and that of your parent's is your parents most likely did it on a single income. Nowadays dual incomes are required. Is that progress?

Scott
I've had the opposite experience.

1. Both my parents worked full-time my entire childhood. I have a single-income house and do significantly better than they did combine.

2. During my childhood in the 80's and 90's I knew very few single-income households and I'd say +95% in my very middle-class town had a two-income house. So what's changed?

3. The writing has been on the wall for US manufacturing for +40 years. I just watched the movie Gung Ho from 1986 and the concern for US manufacturing being taken over by foreign companies was well-established even back then. This was the entire reason for the push for college. Some listened and some didn't. Does everyone need to go? Nope, but then you'd better still learn some skill that requires some level of expertise otherwise you will find yourself doing jobs that anyone can do and that's not great for job security.

4. Most of my friends are at least college educated but most (not all) are not "elite college educated". Many went to community college or state school for minimal cost. I'm the product of state university systems for undergrad, dental school, and now business school. Their jobs are all over the place ranging from college admissions, head of maintenance for a large group home company, state prison guard, electrician, head of an engineering school at a technical University, attorney, several school teachers. Everyone is doing well. Everyone owns their own homes and is saving for retirement. Everyone is doing better than their parents.

5. Sure, the economy has fundementally changed to a service-based economy. Within this thread, there have been comments suggesting this is bad or weakens the US and that it just represents pushing paper/electrons around for nothing. What? Services are every bit as "tangible" as producing "wigets." There is demand for a service, someone provides a service and is compensation for that service, the service provider now has more reasorces to use to fund their own economic activity, GDP increases, and life goes on. That is every bit as "real" as buying a baseball from someone. I'm sorry making a baseball requires no special training or knowledge but I'm sure cobblers and farriers felt the same way as we entered the industrial revolution. That's progress...times change.
 
Precisely why I don't invest in a single company. But what do I know? I remember being in a computer store in 1998 laughing at this little section of iMacs thinking Apple was going out of business while the rest of the store was picking up all the Windows PCs they could.
Yup, I don't own a single individual stock.
 
You, like me, are likely in the top half of income distribution. I personally have benefitted greatly as well.

However if your in the bottom half of income distribution your lot has not improved at all - the chart below is inflation adjusted income by income percentile - Red line is 1980, blue line is current. Notice the divergence at the half way mark.

I make no claims whether this is good or bad or why it happened, just pointing out that half the population completely missed this "unprecedented period of prosperity" and hence may feel differently about it than you or I might.

https://dqydj.com/household-income-by-year/

View attachment 144764
I'm in the top 5%, by design, and with a lot of hard work. No trust fund. No wealthy parents to send me to Harvard. State schools, on my dime. Most of my friends are in the same boat. The opportunity has been there for those looking for it...
 
This SVB is more a media extravaganza.
SVB if I understand correctly had to many of its assets tied up in longer treasuries. I have only followed it loosely.

It’s all irrelevant, as of today MONDAY ALL CUSTOMERS WITH DEPOSITS AT SVB ARE AVAILABLE TO BE WITHDRAWN.

As far as SVB separate E/U operations HSBC had taken over the overseas branch and is completely solvent.

Wall Street will do what it’s going to do regardless of the SVB story. Except banking industry stocks simply because emotionally would you think the public wants to jump into banking right now even though this is an isolated event that really has nothing to do with nothing.
Plus you have the bitcoin drama among other banks but nothing other than pride is taking down the banking industry.
 
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This SVB is more a media extravaganza.
SVB if I understand correctly had to many of its assets tied up in longer treasuries. I have only followed it loosely.

All irrelevant though as of today MONDAY ALL CUSTOMERS WITH DEPOSITS AT SVB ARE AVAILABLE TO BE WITHDRAWN.

As far as SVB separate E/U operations HSBC had taken over the overseas branch and is completely solvent.
Yes, which decreased in value when interest rates increased and they had to sell them for a loss to cover outflows - that is what precipitated all of this...
 
You, like me, are likely in the top half of income distribution. I personally have benefitted greatly as well.

However if your in the bottom half of income distribution your lot has not improved at all - the chart below is inflation adjusted income by income percentile - Red line is 1980, blue line is current. Notice the divergence at the half way mark.

I make no claims whether this is good or bad or why it happened, just pointing out that half the population completely missed this "unprecedented period of prosperity" and hence may feel differently about it than you or I might.

https://dqydj.com/household-income-by-year/

View attachment 144764
I just noticed this, interesting but first glance (I’ll look more when I have time)
I can’t help but wonder if anyplace in the link is provided a reason for the “bottom half”
Such as the bottom half might be overweight with an aging population (and living longer than ever) now out of the work force?

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/65-older-population-grows.html
 
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Can I write a speculative autopsy?

Svb reaches out to a few bankers, very likely to raise capital. GS sells the new svb equity, and shorts svb at the same time.

GS triggers a run on the svb bank by having it's private bankers call depositers in SVB to pull their money out of SVB. This causes a collapse of SVB.

GS gets word late Friday morning that the fed/treasury will make all depositors whole. GS sells a massive amount of S&P PUTs, and buys a massive amount of S&P calls.

While GS does it put and calls transactions, the markets get a bit of relief. When GS selling of ours and buying of calls is complete, the market trends back down.

Sunday the Fed/treasury publically release they will make all SVP depositors whole. Stock futures turn solidly green.


GS just ensured a super happy year end bonus for their big boys.

The above is a speculative fantasy, I have zero information this is what occured, but life experience tells me this is exactly how the game is played.
 
Yes, which decreased in value when interest rates increased and they had to sell them for a loss to cover outflows - that is what precipitated all of this...
So I guess the Fed did some fancy footwork to avoid calling this a bailout?
Or is it just that the shareholders held the burden of a lost investment?
I posted haven’t paid any attention to this, we are 1 week away from moving to a new house but honestly not sure how much interest anyway. I knew it wasn’t 2008. This involved a bank I never heard of and not even a top ten bank.

On a bigger scale we know Silicon Valley is slashing jobs but that is what the Fed wants
 
Might have to pull my money out and keep at home... The way the media is today they can get a frenzy started and we see a run on the banks...
 
So I guess the Fed did some fancy footwork to avoid calling this a bailout?
Or is it just that the shareholders held the burden of a lost investment?
I posted haven’t paid any attention to this, we are 1 week away from moving to a new house but honestly not sure how much interest anyway. I knew it wasn’t 2008. This involved a bank I never heard of and not even a top ten bank.

On a bigger scale we know Silicon Valley is slashing jobs but that is what the Fed wants
There not bailing out the bank, bondholders, or shareholders. The bank will fold - or be transfered to a different bank, the shareholders will get zero, the bondholders will only get any money if there is money left after they make all depositors whole - which is unlikely.

The only ones getting any money are depositors in the bank. They did not invest in the banks business in any way - they were simply parking their money there. Since we work on a fractional reserve banking system using fiat money with nothing backing it - the only thing making the US dollar worth anything is the faith that the US government will maintain there full faith and credit. If large banks are allowed to fail and hence depositors loose their money, that faith fails.

So while I don't agree with the whole system, its the system we have. So unless all of us want our US dollars becoming worthless its likely the right move.
 
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