Just looked up the GFS North Atlantic Oscillation pattern forecast.... Trending negative and going negative in the next 7 days... Pacific North American pattern is trending positive and becoming strongly positive in the next 7 days. . . We had a large scale pattern shift start to take place a couple of weeks ago. . Those by the way can be extremely hard to predict at times.
Ohh yeah... Could be fun....
I love winter time forecasting.... It the toughest by far in my opinion. Separates the men from the boys and girls from the women.
Any World Champion can predict Hazy, Hot, and Humid in the summer time....
But it's far, far harder to predict where rain will fall, then sleet and freezing rain and then where the snow will fall.
Or where the storm will undergo cyclogenesis... And how rapid that process could be... Or where it will track to has well.
A difference of literally as small as 50-100 miles can make MASSIVE difference in sensible weather.
In my region aka Wakefield NWS and Raleigh NWS and even sometimes Morehead NC NWS they have to deal with #1 where will the storm form #2 how rapid is cyclogenesis #3 exact track of that storm #4 And forecast the 3 possible sensible weather effects felt from that storm....
Whereas forecast areas like say Sterling Va, Philadelphia Mt Holly, NY and Boston NWS areas typically know what's coming already.... Much easier up there because #1 and #2 are already done and set up for their regions.
Ohh yeah... Could be fun....
I love winter time forecasting.... It the toughest by far in my opinion. Separates the men from the boys and girls from the women.
Any World Champion can predict Hazy, Hot, and Humid in the summer time....
But it's far, far harder to predict where rain will fall, then sleet and freezing rain and then where the snow will fall.
Or where the storm will undergo cyclogenesis... And how rapid that process could be... Or where it will track to has well.
A difference of literally as small as 50-100 miles can make MASSIVE difference in sensible weather.
In my region aka Wakefield NWS and Raleigh NWS and even sometimes Morehead NC NWS they have to deal with #1 where will the storm form #2 how rapid is cyclogenesis #3 exact track of that storm #4 And forecast the 3 possible sensible weather effects felt from that storm....
Whereas forecast areas like say Sterling Va, Philadelphia Mt Holly, NY and Boston NWS areas typically know what's coming already.... Much easier up there because #1 and #2 are already done and set up for their regions.