Rapidly developing storm ... or not? Heading for the coast ... seems almost certain, maybe? Updates are rolling in!

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Granted that Sandy storm was technically not a tropical entity at landfall. It had an incoming upper level cold air system pulled into that storms center. Very, very rare circumstance there where the atmosphere had a combination of the northern jet stream and a tropical low pressure. Which actually caused the strong snow event even in the Blue Ridge Mountains northeast of Charlottesville. 12 inches of snow fell at 4,100 feet at a highest peak along Skyline Drive. And 22 inches of snow fell at the Virginia West Virginia state line along route 250. And 3 feet in Snowshoe resort.

I drove up to Wintergreen sky resort the day after landfall and it was 48 degrees east of the resort at 800 feet elevation. It was 28 degrees on top of the mountain at 3,800 feet and snowing with 3 inches of snow on the ground. A very, very steep lapse rate which is very unusual for late October in the mid Atlantic region.


Numerous hurricanes along the area northeast of even Virginia have happened.
Hurricane Carol and Edna in 1954, Hurricane Donna, Hurricane Gloria in 1985, Hurricane Bob in 1991. Hurricane Floyd in 1999. Hurricane Irene and others too.

And the strongest measured hurricane Express Hurricane of 1938 which was a category 3 borderline category 4 hitting Long Island and Connecticut and Rhode Island…. With a massive storm surge approaching 20 feet well ahead of that storm hitting while moving northward at 60 mph…. Killing almost 700 people and doing almost 700 million dollars in 1938 dollars worthy of damage…. Which in today’s money would easily be a whole, whole lot more than that. Only the 1900 Galveston hurricane did more damage in the US.
I wasn’t discounting hurricanes but posting that Atlantic storms can be just as bad for coastal areas and actually more frequent.
Normally, you could count on a nor’easter or two every winter and it’s ironic how it always seems to happen around Halloween until December.
By far Sandy was the worst in 50ish + years.
Gloria wasn’t all that bad Long Island wise, I think the best they could do at the time was was up to a 84 ish MPH gust at Islip/Mac airport.
One must remember that my experiences and references are to the Northeast not the mid Atlantic.
I was around for Gloria It was actually fun still remember the calm of the eye pass by and then the wind pick up on the back end as it passed. Being on Long Island for five decades, it was the only one of any significance. The rest were always nor’easter’s. Besides Sandy, there was another unnamed double barrel low stationed off Long Island that wrecked havoc for quite some time pumping in water.
My post had to do with someone discounting todays storm.

I’m just posting this from recent memory as I lay on my sofa with my phone🙃

When we talk about death rates from storms decades ago, there was no early warning system like there is now, nor flood mapping and building codes and standards. Not satellite images 🫤
 
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Nah you are wrong here…

4-7inches of very, very heavy rainfall in my area WILL lead to flash flooding. . And I’d bet locally 8 inches in some very localized areas.

We have not been dry at all unlike northwestern Va.

Been a number of Flash Flood warnings in my area in the last 3 months…. Richmond area and south side Hampton Roads and even one just barely southeast of where I live. And those happened just a few weeks ago.

Which is why I stated what I stated.

Especially the way this storm is seemingly setting up. With a moisture corridor aligning along the coastal areas in Va and NC.

Similar to Floyd in 1999. Though no where near as bad as that…. 12-18 inches of rain in that.
Well, we’ll know tomorrow how much flash flooding took place.
I don’t watch the news and I don’t watch weather forecasting, or anything to do with mass media.
I just watch National, Hurricane Center and NOAA, and for the most of the coast, it’s just showing a minimal risk.
By the way, it’s pretty windy here on the southern coast of North Carolina moderate rain, but nothing heavy. We are at the very southern edge of the storm.

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I’m telling you though that red area on this map is meaning something. . Even the broad yellow area does too… I have noted in the past 4 years when my area is in the yellow area we have had some significant flash flooding events.

That red area barely west of me had a flood advisory just a week ago… That is why it’s red now… Prime and extremely wet ground that won’t hold hardly any additional rainfall.
 
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I’m like you… in that I don’t watch tv weather… And haven’t watched local tv weather in over 22 years.

Not saying the people on there are bad. I really do t know. Used to be a few of them were really, really good in fact. But that was 22 years ago.
 
I wasn’t discounting hurricanes but posting that Atlantic storms can be just as bad for coastal areas and actually more frequent.
Normally, you could count on a nor’easter or two every winter and it’s ironic how it always seems to happen around Halloween until December.
By far Sandy was the worst in 50ish + years.
Gloria wasn’t all that bad Long Island wise, I think the best they could do at the time was was up to a 84 ish MPH gust at Islip/Mac airport.
One must remember that my experiences and references are to the Northeast not the mid Atlantic.
I was around for Gloria It was actually fun still remember the calm of the eye pass by and then the wind pick up on the back end as it passed. Being on Long Island for five decades, it was the only one of any significance. The rest were always nor’easter’s. Besides Sandy, there was another unnamed double barrel low stationed off Long Island that wrecked havoc for quite some time pumping in water.
My post had to do with someone discounting todays storm.

I’m just posting this from recent memory as I lay on my sofa with my phone🙃

When we talk about death rates from storms decades ago, there was no early warning system like there is now, nor flood mapping and building codes and standards. Not satellite images 🫤


I’m going from just memory too. I read all hurricane history when I was in 3rd and 4th and 5th grades.

The reason the 1938 Long Island express Hurricane was so dangerous was its amazingly fast forward speed at 60 mph. It literally produced a tsunami type waves way, way ahead of the actual storm really hitting.

If a storm of that strength and power hit Long Island and Connecticut and Rhode Island today the damage was be north of 200 billion.

Gloria weakened has it moved northward and due to westerly wind shear. It was a 150 mph hurricane at one point. Which I heard the EMS tones go off and I remember running inside and reading that on the tv. That was spooky. Though it did drop down to 120 mph as it neared Cape Hatteras, then veered more northeast which it put my area in the weaker western side of the storm Still a significant event as my area in Gloucester county saw winds of 50-60 mph.
 
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Coastal flooding was slightly less than forecast, but still a couple feet in our street. Glad we moved the cars. Didn’t need to, but if the forecast was off in the other direction, we would have been caught.
I had a family member on with a home on the water on Long Island. Yeah, the question was always should they or shouldn't they.
Well the one time they only moved one car because they didnt think it was going to be a big deal but did it anyway ... you know what happened to the one they didnt move? Based on your post you know the answer. The water went over the door jams and flooded the interior..
Are you really done with the tide cycles? Meaning its not hanging around as a threat to you?
 
I had a family member on with a home on the water on Long Island. Yeah, the question was always should they or shouldn't they.
Well the one time they only moved one car because they didnt think it was going to be a big deal but did it anyway ... you know what happened to the one they didnt move? Based on your post you know the answer. The water went over the door jams and flooded the interior..
Are you really done with the tide cycles? Meaning its not hanging around as a threat to you?
We are done tonight…at least, until Tuesday…

We will leave only the truck in the driveway that day. The SL600 is at the airport parking garage. My wife’s Volvo is at the shop. The S600 will be with us on vacation.

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@Astro14
^^ I like that charting I might be leery until the next high tide this evening but have no idea and know nothing about that area, I just checked the winds at Virginia Beach. Glad it worked out for you.
The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel is the datum that I prefer.

However, many of my neighbors use the Sewells point station.

Sewells point prediction is more affected by the wind, while the CBBT is not. Flooding on my street is affected by the wind as well, but differently than Sewells Point, so I make my own guesses to adjust for that.

The prediction yesterday was for 4.5 feet at high tide this morning. It was revised down to 4.0 feet last night.

7.0 feet puts it at our garage door, that’s when I start filling the sand bags and getting worried…
 
The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel is the datum that I prefer.

However, many of my neighbors use the Sewells point station.

Sewells point prediction is more affected by the wind, while the CBBT is not. Flooding on my street is affected by the wind as well, but differently than Sewells Point, so I make my own guesses to adjust for that.

The prediction yesterday was for 4.5 feet at high tide this morning. It was revised down to 4.0 feet last night.

7.0 feet puts it at our garage door, that’s when I start filling the sand bags and getting worried…
OMG ... I remember the sand bag talk from my brother all the time(same one as the car story), he since moved to the Carolina area... but used to live on the Great South Bay and buy bags of top soil to stack in front of his garage and sliding doors.... . It was a larger type house but built back in the late 50s or early 60s and not that much higher than mean high tide.
Tri-level would flood the family room garage level not more than a handful of times in those decades. But once in many decades did it ever get more then lets say 2 feet on th slower level. Super Storm Sandy took it up (guessing 10 feet) and flooded that main level to the ceiling and the second floor kit, dining, living room with 2 feet of water.
 
New storm guidance has it off the Jersey and Long Island Coast... I wonder once a depression if there will be winds that can still push water to the north. Meaning do depressions still have significant wind field?
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This isn’t the case today but to people in the Northeast it’s not about hurricanes. It’s about Atlantic ocean storms. Northeast storms are rarely hurricane strength.
Yes I know but that is not what I was referring to. It does not matter where a hurricane is or who it hits or doesn't hit anyone, its about number of named storms and hurricanes.

There are two agendas driving the enhanced naming from two different sources. One is the insurance industry. They use raw number of named storms and hurricanes to justify raising rates. More named storms and hurricanes, higher profits for them.

The other is the green activists. They use more named storms and hurricanes to try to justify their well known climate agenda. Both have put enormous pressure successfully on NOAA and the NHC to name more storms and name more hurricanes. Marginal storms are very apt to get a name, and hurricanes are likely to "juuuuuust reach" Cat 1 (wink-wink) before landfall somewhere. This is not my opinion, it was told to me by a veteran meteorologist in SE TX.
 
Jackson NJ 22 miles west of Jersey shore 1241 PM Saturday . Moderate rain, winds calm at this time.
 

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Yes I know but that is not what I was referring to. It does not matter where a hurricane is or who it hits or doesn't hit anyone, its about number of named storms and hurricanes.

There are two agendas driving the enhanced naming from two different sources. One is the insurance industry. They use raw number of named storms and hurricanes to justify raising rates. More named storms and hurricanes, higher profits for them.

The other is the green activists. They use more named storms and hurricanes to try to justify their well known climate agenda. Both have put enormous pressure successfully on NOAA and the NHC to name more storms and name more hurricanes. Marginal storms are very apt to get a name, and hurricanes are likely to "juuuuuust reach" Cat 1 (wink-wink) before landfall somewhere. This is not my opinion, it was told to me by a veteran meteorologist in SE TX.
To the best of my knowledge, tropical storms typically are given names, and this was at the high end of tropical storm readings

I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist.
I’m not sure if you’re aware posted in NOAA research papers that one of thier scientists state a major contributing factor to more powerful Atlantic storms is the lack of air pollution. The air in the Northeast has been cleaned up so much particulates are no longer reflecting the amount of sunlight from the ocean. This results in the sun hitting the oceans more and creating more energy for the storms.
So that would throw out some of the greeny thing.

This particular storm had solid tropical storm wind speeds.
I get what you’re saying and I’m definitely an anti-media person but I don’t know if I’m seeing anything funny other than advanced technology, satellite, imagery, and stuff, like that, which may be finding storms out in the middle of the Atlantic that typically would not be named?
 
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