oil production nearing peak..then what?

[ziggy]

I had read in aol news yesterday, oil production is supposed to peak between 2008 and 2018...I am assuming meaning the known oil riggs that pump oil offshore, are near empty, all that. What would happen in the next year or decade then? Gas and oil prices would skyrocket?
Makes me think, its a good thing, some of us have a good stash goin
whats everyones ideas and thoughts?

 

[Bill in Utah]

*if* AOL news is correct.

Having a stash will do you no good. (this is from someone who had a 500 quart stash last year).

No oil, no gas.

No gas, no need for motor oil.

Also, No go......

Take care, bill

PS: Prices for gas WILL go higher. Period. We have proved that the cost of gas does not matter @$3 a gallon. So lets see what $4 or $5 a gallon does....

 

[SAM1]

Let's face it...the oil industry is such a racket..and we have been so taken advantage of, we don't even realize it. They (the mafia or the equivilant to those who rule the oil industry) raise prices to nearly 4.00/gallon a year or so ago. Everyone complains, prices fall, then bounch back up, but not as high, then drop...then bounch back up again until they level out at what we now consider to be ok which in fact is a smack in your face and a complete rip off. Everyone feels so cozy because a gallon goes for 2.75 right now, but no less than 10 years ago you could get it for 1.75/gallon. There is just no reason for this increas. If 50 years had lapsed since it was 1.75, then, maybe, I could see a justification for 2.75/gallon. The government could do more to level this stuff out. Come on...they have no problem dropping 75-100 billion toward a war in Iraq, yet they can't fix things here at home. It just amazes me that this country hasn't revolted against such ----. And I'm not saying the war was a mistake, just simply the point that our country can find money. The oil is only one issue of overly, non-justified inflated prices.

 

[Torino]

AOL news?? Check real datas and science. You will see there is a glut of crude out there. The geo-political scenario is another thing. John--Las Vegas.

 

[SAM1]

Quote:

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AOL news?? Check real datas and science. You will see there is a glut of crude out there. The geo-political scenario is another thing. John--Las Vegas.

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This affirms my point above. This is all about keeping money in the hands of those who need it the least.

 

[ziggy]

So, how man years of oil is expected, or anticipated, to be on the market?

 

[Shannow]

As Sir Harry Ricardo said 80 years ago.

"We started running out of oil the day we started using it."

The time for developing alternatives IS NOW.

but the alternatives aren't "economically viable".

In other words, until huge quantities of our dollars are available to line pockets (firstly of those holding the last oil, and secondly the same people developing alternatives), we'll keep marching to the end we are heading in.

It's going to cost us plebs a bucket load.

 

[Kestas]

Quote:

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... Prices for gas WILL go higher. Period. We have proved that the cost of gas does not matter @$3 a gallon. So lets see what $4 or $5 a gallon does....

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Well said, Bill. I remember when gas shot up in the 78-84 era. Muscle cars disappeared and the market was clamoring for small fuel-efficient cars.

$3 a gallon has hardly budged anybody away from SUVs.

 

[Gary Allan]

Quote:

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Everyone feels so cozy because a gallon goes for 2.75 right now, but no less than 10 years ago you could get it for 1.75/gallon.

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During the first oil embargo ..the stuff went (IIRC) from like $0.39 to $0.69. Within a relatively short time, after supplies had stabilized, the rest of the economy just wrapped up around the increase and it still represented the same cheap fuel. Minimum wage was about 300% (+/-) of the cost of a gallon of gas ($1.85, IIRC). Viable wage was $3.XX ..and gainful employment was $5.xx.

Template that over what we've traditionally paid and are paying now. I think that this is really the first time, aside from transitional events, where we're actually paying a premium for energy.

 

[todds21]

Read up on the peak oil theory. Very scarey stuff not far from mad max...

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

 

[Kestas]

After reading that article, it seems funny that we're worried about ozone and CO2.

Once peak oil is over, we'll REALLY have something to worry about!

 

[Lonnie]

Nothing will happen to conserve our resources until the price at least doubles or triples. People will become much smarter then. They will suddenly figure out how to do something else. A consumer with a gun to his/her head becomes much more focused and decisions become more viable. A smaller vehicle may become a good idea when it was previously unacceptable in the past. Suddenly many small steps will melt into a plan. The oil companies and politicians will have to be paid off and then the manufacturers can go to work and do what they do best, make stuff. The solution is a change of culture. Everything else will follow. The biggest problem now is the politicians. The jerks promoting CAFÉ are just like the politicians that wanted to regulate vehicles in 1900. The proposed that a man should walk ahead of a motor vehicle and upon sighting a horse drawn vehicle should fire a Roman Candle, pull the motor vehicle over to the side of the road and dismantle it so it would not scare the horse. Granted, horses did not like motor vehicles but the solution was cooperation not legislation. On Sesame Street they called cooperation Shirley. What we need is Shirley, not legislation that is guaranteed to fail.

 

[Gary Allan]

Conservation cannot save us. Technology may be able to prolong our existence for a short while.

 

[Tornado Red]

The market mechanism will always provide enough fuel for those willing to pay for it.

The price at any one time is the result of:
1) current demand and current production
2) stocks of crude oil and products readily available
3) global crude capacity
4) proven reserves and unproven reserves
5) alternative and substitute fuels

There are always analysts who look at what is available RIGHT NOW. And others who look at what the situation is likely to be next year and the year after. And others looking out 5-10 years. And finally some who might be looking 50-100 years.

No rational person, nor a group of reasonably rational individuals who run an oil company, is going to keep the price low right up until the supply runs out.

The price will gradually adjust (upward) to reflect the diminishing supplies of crude oil in the ground. And customers will gradually adjust their demand to reflect the higher prices being charged.

This entire discussion is one that we need not obsess about -- it will affect future generations, and they may curse us for not leaving more petroleum for them to use, but they will have other energy sources that are not available to us.

For instance, if a workable and practical fusion reactor was introduced next week for commercial application, the price of every fossil fuel would decline sharply. Even if the first reactor was still 10 years away from producing a single kilowatt of electricy.

 

[Al]

As long as most people believe that oil scarcity is the fault of "big oil" And as long as those people b1tch as they fill their SUV's we will continue to be pulled off of the cliff.

 

[McKittrick]

Once the realization that peak oil has occurred, you can expect continuous upward pressure on prices.

But we will not immediately run out of oil. Just out of cheap oil.

Worldwide supply may drop at 5% per year, but still will be available. Texas peaked in 1970-71 and still produces about 25% as much as at peak. The wells are not dry, just less available.

A similar thing will probably happen worldwide, 30 years after the peak we may need to get by on 25% as much conventional petroleum as we currently use.

But we can develop alternatives, and learn to use energy a lot more efficiently.

It won't be the end of the world, but it will be a very different world than which we have been living the past 40 to 50 years.

 

[eljefino]

As long as people can fill up anywhere, anytime, and put it on their credit cars they'll guzzle.

Only rationing will smack the idiot brigade around enough to make them think about what they're doing.

It's more likely, IMO, that supplies will simply not be delivered... leading to hoarding and other non-nice panic attacks.

 

[dcoyne78]

As more people become aware of the likely peak in world oil output (sometime between 2010 and 2030)and the resulting rise in fuel prices, people will change their behavior. I would hate to be stuck with a Ford Expedition or a similar large SUV when prices start to approach 5 or 6 dollars a gallon like many countries in Europe are seeing currently. As far as the apparent "glut" of oil mentioned above, if that is so the current market price of oil does not seem to bear that out. For those that think oil sands, oil shale, or Saudia Arabia can solve the problem they are mistaken. The oil sands cannot be ramped up quickly enough to replace declining conventional oil, oil shale is still not economically feasible at current prices, and for an analysis of Saudia Arabia check out "Twilight in the Desert", by Matthew Simmons. He argues that Saudi Arabia will also be reaching its peak output very soon and that their oil reserves are probably 100 billion barrels less than they claim. All of this points to high future fuel prices, unless we start developing electric cars, light rail transportation and alternative sources of energy.

Dennis

 

[Kestas]

Dennis is correct. Once prices get to the $5 to $6 level, alternate fuels and new technologies will start to develop and become more attractive economically.

The engineering community is buzzing with this alternate technology, waiting for oil prices to rise and sustain their high prices so the development work can begin with these projects. The oil producers know this and keep their oil prices just below this threshhold.

 

[Shannow]

Well how about we remove the subsidies and put the true cost of oil (wars, defence, etc) onto oil now, and help the alternatives become that much more viable NOW ?