Sadly predictable is not the new normal anytime soon and hasn't been since a little before COVID
Oil news not good today
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Inked
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Agree with the first paragraph.
Second paragraph…Source for the second sentence?
Third paragraph I also agree with.
Fourth paragraph,,,Are our friends/neighbors in Canada benefitting from the “Navy’s protection of global trade”? I wonder what terms the Chinese and/or Russians would offer our northern allies.
Your thesis is pretty much all wrong, however that is the propaganda that gets repeated.
The US dollar is used as a median of exchange because there is no other currency large and deep enough to do so. Someone has to run a huge trade deficit in order for the rest of the world to get these dollars. The cost of providing this is the hollowing out of our industrial base and $38T in debt - and while it may benefit the elites and the banks, its a huge drain on the average citizen. Please name another currency that could replace the dollar if it wanted - or a country rich enough to run the trade deficit needed. For my entire life the world has claimed to hate the dollar, yet more trade is done in dollars now than at any time in history. Just wait till US stablecoins take over completely.
As for projection of power - I believe most citizens are tired of it as I am. "There never was a good war or a bad peace" - Benjamin Franklin.
Owen Lucas
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Once this is all over, and hopefully soon, I predict that oil prices will drop just on the news of the IRGC capitulating / being destroyed.
Supposedly the baddies are running out of drones and have been operating without "central command" for a while and just aiming at predetermined coordinates / operating autonomously.
What the heck do I know, my prediction is this party is over in 2 weeks.
Supposedly the baddies are running out of drones and have been operating without "central command" for a while and just aiming at predetermined coordinates / operating autonomously.
What the heck do I know, my prediction is this party is over in 2 weeks.
Owen Lucas
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Do you really think this is a possibility? Maybe the USD is already a stablecoin considering it's on a ledger, all we have to do is track the serial numbers in a block chain?
IMHO, if there ever was a good war, it would be this one. Iran was the medusa of the terror world. Cutting that head off ends support for the houthis, hamas, Russia, NK, China, and who knows what other bad guys out there.
So far it's been rather effective in terms of only 4 lives lost on our side and massive damage to the regime. I believe the largest ships in their navy are sunk, their jets have been disassembled, and we're taking out launchers and shaheds one by one. Soon there'll be nothing for them to do. We're using all of out tech the way it was intended, and if this regime and it's terrorism can never rise again it's a massive win. Maybe it's not even a war, just horribly asymmetric a beat down.
Oh, and those sleeper cells? They would have done something by now I presume.
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I don't think there's a rule that one currency has to be dominant for world trade, and lots of trade is done with other currencies, ~40% now. But the USD is backed by the largest military and Navy with allies selling 80% of the worlds oil production in USD, so its the most stable and trusted. I think China has limited oil reserves left now that Iran is not in business, so they will have to start buying more oil from countries that sell in USD, which devalues their currency?
I actually think its 56% of all global trade is done in dollars, that leaves 44% is how much global trade of all other currencies combined is done in not dollars (30% is in Euro and the vast majority of that is within the euro zone itself). Even when its not dollars, the dollar is the benchmark. If you want to trade Canadian dollars with Argentinian Peso's - you will first determine how many dollars each is worth, then do the math. The dollar has never been more dominant. It has little to do with the military. Its mostly to do with convenience - everyone can use the dollar, and the US doesn't charge for it. In fact the Euro Dollar system is estimated to be double the volume of the domestic dollar system.
There are really two renminbi, the domestic one, and the globally traded one - which is really small. Domestic is 100% controlled. I doubt oil will affect them much since they have so many dollars from there trade surplus - both from trading with the USA and also trading with other countries in dollars, they can buy oil in dollars.
They exist already - on Tether and the other big exchange. And the US government has now endorsed them via the Genius act. Most other countries are panicked about it. Now people in any country can load an app on their phone, and transact and store dollars. Even in countries with capital controls. The Countries would have to ban the app - but as soon as someone stepped out of the country they could connect to there money again. Its a game changer for people in places like turkey with mass inflation, or China with strict capital controls, and both use domestic banking to control there population. We who use US dollars daily don't understand what a game changer this is for those who don't have our monetary freedom.
We still owe them for 1979 IMHO. You can carpet bomb the place for all I care. But no US service members boot needs ever touch the dirt in that forsaken place. We have had enough of that.
Owen Lucas
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I agree. Seems like war can be handled remotely now mostly. It would be a bad look and a slippery slope.
4wd
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And if you snapped your fingers and the world was instantly all EV - think we’d be dog eat dog for precious minerals too …
Something I found interesting working in Korean shipyards was the very LNG tankers (unique high spec ships) they built and sold to others - would be bringing them back enormous amounts of energy.
There are many vital things passing these waterways - and not always any other economic means …
4wd
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There are also allot of expat SME’s and leadership headed back to where they came from. Keep in mind that some oil rich nations don’t do that much independent of others - the heavy equipment - hardware/software is not their own - and they import both white collar and blue collar workers …
No chance this won’t have impacts …
4wd
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Wonder what’s the cost of instant gratification these days ? - I click a mouse and it’s at my doorstep tomorrow !
(Allot happened with that click)
The Canadian dollar is highly dependant on the price of oil. With 4 million bbls per day sold to the USA, a 50 dollar per bbl increase means $200 million extra dollars USD per day flow into Canada which is $73 billon more per year and is typically enough to bring the Canadian dollar on par with the USD. The last time this happened was back around 2013. Mods I used a screen print to show the exchange rate over time.
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remember when they said ukraine being attacked caused prices to soar? i do,
4wd
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US Navy to start escorts - could get interesting …
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Second paragraph…Source for the second sentence?
I guess the naval blockade of Venezuela and then kidnapping their leader, and then the conflict in Iran is the most recent, which were both supplying China with oil and getting around US sanctions by not using USD to pay for it.
Third paragraph I also agree with.
Fourth paragraph,,,Are our friends/neighbors in Canada benefitting from the “Navy’s protection of global trade”? I wonder what terms the Chinese and/or Russians would offer our northern allies. Yes, all the US allies benefit from reliable global trade, as does the US, but I agree that we could do more to protect that. Also the US is definitely the best super-power, for a liberal democracy to share the worlds longest undefended border with! But that's not to say that everything the US does benefits Canada, or is above some critical analysis (especially recently). We were aligning our trade policy with the US, integrating our economy to work closer with the US, and not investing in infrastructure for selling our oil on the world market, but now this is being used against Canadian interests, so we are looking at more trading options. Realistically though, neither China or Russia is a military threat to Canada directly at the moment, with NATO even without the US. We could also build a nuclear deterrent against China and Russia with some help from UK or France I suppose, but things would have to be going badly for that to make sense!
You used the word “kidnapping”. Their “leader” was indicted years ago and was given every opportunity to answer to those charges which he failed to do. A Panamanian leader was also brought to justice in a similar fashion a few decades ago on similar charges and eventually found guilty. Either way, he will have his day in court unlike the tens of thousands who every human rights watchdog group accusing him of atrocities didn’t in his own country. The only ones who recognized him as the true leader were Russia, China and their puppets. Even the other South American countries didn’t recognize his legitimacy. The Navy, as we all witnessed, was supporting drug interdiction operations from Cartels as well as blockading tankers supporting those countries that manufactured those very same drugs. By the way, this too is not unprecedented. Identical operations were taking place in the 80’s the public was aware of but to no degree the scale of.
Also, it is not just the U.S. and her allies that benefit from safe trade routes. “All boats rise with the tide.”
Lastly and in my eyes, most importantly, regarding your statement that neither China nor Russia is a military threat to Canada at the moment, I would say this. You can, for a time, coexist, with a much more vicious and powerful entity before the inherent nature of that beast shows itself for what it truly is and makes an attempt to devour you. Didactic as it may be, think of Timmy Treadwell. Trading non-essential goods with the Bear is all fine and good when it benefits both, but you supply an essential good like food (oil) that the Bear requires to exist then the stronger Bear eventually dictates the rules of the relationship.
I guess the naval blockade of Venezuela and then kidnapping their leader, and then the conflict in Iran is the most recent, which were both supplying China with oil and getting around US sanctions by not using USD to pay for it.
Third paragraph I also agree with.
Fourth paragraph,,,Are our friends/neighbors in Canada benefitting from the “Navy’s protection of global trade”? I wonder what terms the Chinese and/or Russians would offer our northern allies. Yes, all the US allies benefit from reliable global trade, as does the US, but I agree that we could do more to protect that. Also the US is definitely the best super-power, for a liberal democracy to share the worlds longest undefended border with! But that's not to say that everything the US does benefits Canada, or is above some critical analysis (especially recently). We were aligning our trade policy with the US, integrating our economy to work closer with the US, and not investing in infrastructure for selling our oil on the world market, but now this is being used against Canadian interests, so we are looking at more trading options. Realistically though, neither China or Russia is a military threat to Canada directly at the moment, with NATO even without the US. We could also build a nuclear deterrent against China and Russia with some help from UK or France I suppose, but things would have to be going badly for that to make sense!
You used the word “kidnapping”. Their “leader” was indicted years ago and was given every opportunity to answer to those charges which he failed to do. A Panamanian leader was also brought to justice in a similar fashion a few decades ago on similar charges and eventually found guilty. Either way, he will have his day in court unlike the tens of thousands who every human rights watchdog group accusing him of atrocities didn’t in his own country. The only ones who recognized him as the true leader were Russia, China and their puppets. Even the other South American countries didn’t recognize his legitimacy. The Navy, as we all witnessed, was supporting drug interdiction operations from Cartels as well as blockading tankers supporting those countries that manufactured those very same drugs. By the way, this too is not unprecedented. Identical operations were taking place in the 80’s the public was aware of but to no degree the scale of.
Also, it is not just the U.S. and her allies that benefit from safe trade routes. “All boats rise with the tide.”
Lastly and in my eyes, most importantly, regarding your statement that neither China nor Russia is a military threat to Canada at the moment, I would say this. You can, for a time, coexist, with a much more vicious and powerful entity before the inherent nature of that beast shows itself for what it truly is and makes an attempt to devour you. Didactic as it may be, think of Timmy Treadwell. Trading non-essential goods with the Bear is all fine and good when it benefits both, but you supply an essential good like food (oil) that the Bear requires to exist then the stronger Bear eventually dictates the rules of the relationship.
I hope this war ends quick and we get some of those post gulf war gas prices like the 90s
We should probably open a different thread on this - but Kraken just secured a direct Fed master account and direct access to Fed payment system. For institutionals only at this point - but this is moving FAST.
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