Next Decade

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Nick R

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Please try to keep this bash free, so it can stay open. I will make a herculean effort to be fair and nice. Anyway, what do you think is going to happen in the next decade in the world of autos?





I think in the next decade we are going to see a massive shift in the buying habits. I think Over the next few years Toyota is going to become the way GM has been for years, though maybe not quite to the extreme. People will start realizing that maybe Japanese cars aren't all they are cracked up to be (ie not gods in car form), and might start shifting back to the new GM, and Ford. I think Chrysler will be like Hyundai. Not so great, but suddenly will come up in quality, and start bringing innovation and quality back to the line up. Fiat is going to shake things up, a bit. If they have decent reliability, I think Alfa Romeos when they get here, might give Lexus, BMW, Cadillac a run for their money. This is my opinion on this, anyway.
 
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GM will survive, Chrysler will go under. Fiat will cut loose from them before it happens and save themselves. I can see Ford becoming the No. 1 automaker in the world, taking the crown away from Toyota.

The global recovery is going to happen very, very slowly, and in fact, the global economy may well be stagnant for the next decade. This will keep fuels and oils relatively cheap, so fuel economy is going to fade as a no. 1 concern.

This, coupled with the fact that folks will start to question the value and environmental impact of hybrids, will see them decline in market share. Taking their place will be engines like Fords 'Ecoboost' engines - turbo 4's and 6's will be the big thing in engines in the coming decade. V-8's will stay in the picture, as gas will still be somewhat cheap.
 
Originally Posted By: rudolphna
I think Over the next few years Toyota is going to become the way GM has been for years, though maybe not quite to the extreme.


I'm thinking by next Wednesday at about 4:30pm......
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But I have 2 Toyotas and a Lexus that are not effected by all the recall confusion.
 
I thought the world ended in 2012????


If it doesn't. I hope that regulation and well intentioned manipulation stay out of the picture. And allow the Car and it's succesors to develop according to market changes and not according to political expediency. I hope that people realize you can work towards and develop for the future, but you cant make it happen overnight.
 
Originally Posted By: rudolphna
I think in the next decade we are going to see a massive shift in the buying habits.

One can only hope.


Originally Posted By: rudolphna
I think Over the next few years Toyota is going to become the way GM has been for years

I doubt it. Toyota is certainly in trouble but not entirely for the same reasons as GM was.


Originally Posted By: rudolphna
I think Chrysler will be like Hyundai. Not so great, but suddenly will come up in quality, and start bringing innovation and quality back to the line up.

Interesting thought. I think it makes sense and is certainly possible.


Originally Posted By: rudolphna
I think Alfa Romeos when they get here, might give Lexus, BMW, Cadillac a run for their money.

If they keep their current formula, it'll take some time for them to break into the market. Luxury car buyers in America don't seem to appreciate quirky cars.
 
Originally Posted By: addyguy
GM will survive, Chrysler will go under. Fiat will cut loose from them before it happens and save themselves. I can see Ford becoming the No. 1 automaker in the world, taking the crown away from Toyota.

The global recovery is going to happen very, very slowly, and in fact, the global economy may well be stagnant for the next decade. This will keep fuels and oils relatively cheap, so fuel economy is going to fade as a no. 1 concern.

This, coupled with the fact that folks will start to question the value and environmental impact of hybrids, will see them decline in market share. Taking their place will be engines like Fords 'Ecoboost' engines - turbo 4's and 6's will be the big thing in engines in the coming decade. V-8's will stay in the picture, as gas will still be somewhat cheap.


+1

I think you are 100% correct...That is exactly what I think is going to happen...I can't add a thing cause you covered this perfectly.
 
I think there will be a trend toward hydraulic hybrids, and they will become common in urban traffic, where hybrids really shine.

Ford will likely become a world leader in cheap urban vehicles of various types (they have already experimented with hydraulic hybrids), but probably not in luxury/touring/performance-oriented cars.

I think as long as GM is on the gov apron strings, it will slip away in market share unless artificially bolstered by regulation that is punitive for other carmakers.

Toyota isn't populated with morons. I think they will get through the whole recall thing OK, but they will gradually sort of look like the company GM would have been had it restructured a long time ago.

Chrysler has Irritable Bowel Syndrome and keeps dumping on buyers every few years, it seems, with shoddy cars (I have seen 1999+ cars/trucks with visible rust--that sort of thing is a no-no in today's market). They just do not seem to know how to craft the kind of quality that we expect from cars today. I think they will die out before GM (maybe, maybe not in the next decade).
 
""I have seen 1999+ cars/trucks with visible rust--that sort of thing is a no-no in today's market)"".

you should see my wife's 2004 Tahoe- rust up the ying yang


Steve
 
You bring up a good point, Kaboomba. Notice that most taxi cabs are Ford Crown Victorias (or the lincoln/mercury counterpart) with 4.6L V8s. They are extremely reliable, but the gas mileage in the city is, well...

Cab companies should start phasing them out with cars like the Fusion Hybrid, or something with engine-auto shut off, and we would save SO much gas and emission sin places like NYC.
 
Originally Posted By: steve20
""I have seen 1999+ cars/trucks with visible rust--that sort of thing is a no-no in today's market)"".

you should see my wife's 2004 Tahoe- rust up the ying yang


Steve


And the 05 Tacoma I bought(new)that had paint failing off it 2 days after purchase and by 7 months when I sold it hundreds of chips and peeling spots and rust.
 
Originally Posted By: addyguy
GM will survive, Chrysler will go under. Fiat will cut loose from them before it happens and save themselves. I can see Ford becoming the No. 1 automaker in the world, taking the crown away from Toyota.

The global recovery is going to happen very, very slowly, and in fact, the global economy may well be stagnant for the next decade. This will keep fuels and oils relatively cheap, so fuel economy is going to fade as a no. 1 concern.

This, coupled with the fact that folks will start to question the value and environmental impact of hybrids, will see them decline in market share. Taking their place will be engines like Fords 'Ecoboost' engines - turbo 4's and 6's will be the big thing in engines in the coming decade. V-8's will stay in the picture, as gas will still be somewhat cheap.


GM and Chrysler will both be fine. Neither is going away. Chrysler will make a comeback ala the Iacoca era. Will take a couple years for the new Fiat + Chrusler lines to arrive and get going but they will be great vehicles. MOPAR will survive just with an Italian accent.
 
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ALL vehicles will be DRIVEN BY COMPUTER. There will be NO steering wheel or any other human mechanical control. Vehicles will not have bumpers, airbags, impact areas, or any other safety device that adds any significant weight or cost because vehicles will NEVER get into any accident. Insurance will not be required because vehicles never crash. There will be no traffic lights because vehicles will regulate speed and timing to allow them to go through intersections in all directions missing other vehicles by less than one foot and no one will think anything of it because they never hit. Travel time will be equal to what it would now take you a 3 AM because traffic will flow like there were no other vehicles. Vehicles will sense tire conditions and other vehicle mechanical limits and will adjust maximum speed to within the vehicles capability and the current weather condition. Vehicles will take themselves to service areas when required while you are not using them.

You will be able to sleep, or do office work, or be educated, or many other home computer type functions while the vehicle takes you to your destination.

Yearly death rate from vehicle accidents in the United States will drop from the current 37,000 to 43,000 deaths per year to less than 100 and most of those will be from unforeseeable things like a bridge collapse, or a land slid. World wide death rate from vehicle accidents will drop form the current 1.2 million per year to less than 10,000, and in the following decade they will continue to drop as the less developed countries improve their roads.

A drivers license will not be required to operate a vehicle. And the minimum age for the person in charge of the vehicle destination will be something like 6 years old.

Vehicles windows might become optional, and if the vehicle does have window(s) it might be able to turn opaque or be blocked by a blind.

All this might take more than 10 years before it goes into effect but by the end of the next decade it will be well on its way. The current yearly death rate will drive it. Imagine if now the US were in a war with 100 times the current death rate our military endures. When it is realized that the current yearly vehicle death rate does not have to be anywhere near as high, the cry for computer driven vehicles will be several times what the demand to get out of Vietnam was if movement in that direction is stalled.
 
Originally Posted By: addyguy

This, coupled with the fact that folks will start to question the value and environmental impact of hybrids, will see them decline in market share. Taking their place will be engines like Fords 'Ecoboost' engines - turbo 4's and 6's will be the big thing in engines in the coming decade. V-8's will stay in the picture, as gas will still be somewhat cheap.


I sincerely hope all of this comes true.
 
I think Ford will replace GM as the number 1 selling domestic automaker. They will continue to bring out cars that brought Toyota to the top: fuel efficent and reliable.

Toyota will be fine. It took years of shoddy domestic products for them to loose market share, and this is possible Toyo's first major screw up, however I think they will try to fix their mistakes in the future to avoid being what GM was for the past few decades.

GM should survive if they dont stick to their old bigger is better theory. And if Fiat doesnt plan to sell off Jeep, Ram, and the Hemi to other companies, then Chrysler should survive as well...just no more Compasses please

I even see a few new players entering the stage as well. SAAB and Spyker could actually work out well. After all, SAAB will finally get the attention it deserves and would be a great competitor against Audi, Acura, and Lexus.

...but what do I know, these are just my theories :)
 
BTW MPG will routinely be more than 100 MPG at highway speeds because of the weight reduction without the current required safety devices combined with computer control allowing optimum drafting following distances.
 
Originally Posted By: JimPghPA
ALL vehicles will be DRIVEN BY COMPUTER. There will be NO steering wheel or any other human mechanical control. Vehicles will not have bumpers, airbags, impact areas, or any other safety device that adds any significant weight or cost because vehicles will NEVER get into any accident. Insurance will not be required because vehicles never crash. There will be no traffic lights because vehicles will regulate speed and timing to allow them to go through intersections in all directions missing other vehicles by less than one foot and no one will think anything of it because they never hit. Travel time will be equal to what it would now take you a 3 AM because traffic will flow like there were no other vehicles. Vehicles will sense tire conditions and other vehicle mechanical limits and will adjust maximum speed to within the vehicles capability and the current weather condition. Vehicles will take themselves to service areas when required while you are not using them.

You will be able to sleep, or do office work, or be educated, or many other home computer type functions while the vehicle takes you to your destination.

Yearly death rate from vehicle accidents in the United States will drop from the current 37,000 to 43,000 deaths per year to less than 100 and most of those will be from unforeseeable things like a bridge collapse, or a land slid. World wide death rate from vehicle accidents will drop form the current 1.2 million per year to less than 10,000, and in the following decade they will continue to drop as the less developed countries improve their roads.

A drivers license will not be required to operate a vehicle. And the minimum age for the person in charge of the vehicle destination will be something like 6 years old.

Vehicles windows might become optional, and if the vehicle does have window(s) it might be able to turn opaque or be blocked by a blind.

All this might take more than 10 years before it goes into effect but by the end of the next decade it will be well on its way. The current yearly death rate will drive it. Imagine if now the US were in a war with 100 times the current death rate our military endures. When it is realized that the current yearly vehicle death rate does not have to be anywhere near as high, the cry for computer driven vehicles will be several times what the demand to get out of Vietnam was if movement in that direction is stalled.


While that sounds great....It is also depressing, because some of us LIKE and ENJOY driving our cars.
 
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