Is Inflation Going To Cripple The Economy ?

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If inflation kills the economy, we won't have to worry about inflation any longer.
 
What I am seeing here is very similar to the time prior to Y2K / dot com bubble crashing.

1) Due to a fear of risk (it was the Y2K bug back then, covid right now) that the central bank around the world is artificially keeping interest rate low, hoping to mitigate any potential collapse due to crisis.

2) Overpriced assets (back then it was dot com stock, right now it is crypto and tech stock) and everyone tries to get in before it is too late

3) Foreign market entering financial crisis (back then it was Japan entering a recession, right now it is Chinese entering recession and real estate bubble popping).

I think after the pandemic is over (financially speaking, whether you believe covid is real or not is irrelevant in the macroeconomics), the overall interest rate will increase and we will start seeing companies failing, and asset bubbles will start popping. Before that the insanity can sustain longer than you can stay solvent betting against it.

Cupertino, one of the "expensive" middle class area, is starting to have significant student enrollment decline and have to close schools, due to mainly being too expensive for young family to buy into the area and the people who bought decades ago becoming empty nesters. Our school outside of this area (slightly more affordable but still 1.5M) is also seeing this reduced enrollment, an indication that asset prices probably have peaked. I think the work from home revolution since the pandemic means the metropolitans across the world are getting bigger, the further away area are increasing in value whereas the overpriced central area near work hubs are reducing in value relatively speaking. I don't think the bubble is as big as 2008 for residential buyers, but I am worried for those companies who bought too much at a high price, like Zillow's residential holding, unless they are buying to hedge against inflation for big clients (those who used to buy Federal Debt / T Note but no longer trust it, yet still need to invest in the USD region). One thing I'd stay away from for sure is the SPAC and Blank Check companies who IPOed recently, and REIT.

I'm not too concerned about min wage or the supply chain issue in the long term. Karens gonna Karen but most of us know the real cost of living has increased and eventually will settle down to what market can bear. Our real min wage according to McD ads are way above the legal min wage anyways, and realistically the legal min wage can't even hire an undocumented worker these days.

The real poverty earner these days are the gig workers and self employed, they can work below min wage as they are "business owners".

EXCELLENT post and thinking. 👍

Don’t forget about all the zombie companies doing poorly and the stock buybacks from some very powerful companies driving their stock price higher and higher.

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IIRC Nixon instituted wage and price controls to take impetus of runaway inflation. It was effective which is one of the reasons he was so hated. That and he was a crook.
In Canada we had the “ 6 and 5”. Companies were limited to a wage increase of 6 % that year and 5 % the next. The Fed interest hike to 21% slammed everything shut and that took care of the issue.
 
Our economy is like a huge ocean going ship; it turns slowly. But our economy is strong.
The supply chain has been decimated which of course causes shortages everywhere.
Certainly some will be hurt more than others, but I believe we are moving in a better direction.

I always have to remember that I live in an area that is much different than most of America.
the problem is the ship is taking on water right now and might sink
 
The cost of many things I have noticed up 20 %. Our wages at my company was just increased 3 to 5 dollars a person. This did help keeping some people that were browsing other options. I think this year will be the biggest inflation jump we have ever seen
 
The cost of many things I have noticed up 20 %. Our wages at my company was just increased 3 to 5 dollars a person. This did help keeping some people that were browsing other options. I think this year will be the biggest inflation jump we have ever seen
YUP...........I hope that people remember this...
 
The problem is that Politics has a hell of a lot to do with it....Just look at the inflation rate over the past year... IMO


I think the point the mod was saying is that this is a great discussion. Let’s leave the P part to the imagination of others and not ruin this.
 
Elon Musk is a bright spot. There are others too.

The steam engine/railroad, telegraph/telephone, light bulb, phonograph/cameras/movies, airplane, rocket, nuclear, computer, internet were all industrial related booms that fueled amazing growth.

It's possible we will see another such cycle, I just don't know what it could possibly be. If we do, all bets are off.
 
Personally I feel any supply chain bottle neck is going to hurt the economy. While it is a complicated topic, one thing that never changes (just my observation) is the concept of supply and demand.
Spend wisely. Stock up on what you need BUT DONT HOARD. Sit tight and hold on. As long as we keep politicians in office that have our livelihood in their best interests we should be ok. Eventually.
I’m not a political zealot but the current administration doesn’t seem to be focused on anything but spending and raising taxes.
 
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But P is part of the problem........


It can be when actions they take to fix things end up exacerbating the problem but again, this talk is for another forum.


The big question is, what will you do and others do to adapt to a inflationary economy? Millions across the country are thinking about this right now. How can the family save on their budget. This is also a great moment to talk to your kids. Kids are resilient. They don’t need to be coddled throughout life. Explain to them how times might get worse. You might be surprised at how they respond.

Tough times and adversity can build character.
 
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Agreed, you can mention the P part but keep it civil. This is a good discussion. We should be sharing how best to weather this storm, not playing the “blame and division” game. We all have one thing in common, we want the best for our country.
 
Personally I feel any supply chain bottle neck is going to hurt the economy. While it is a complicated topic, one thing that never changes (just my observation) is the concept of supply and demand.
Spend wisely. Stock up on what you need BUT DONT HOARD. Sit tight and hold on. As long as we keep politicians in office that have our livelihood in their best interests we should be ok. Eventually.
I’m not a political zealot but the current administration doesn’t seem to be focused on anything but spending and raising taxes.
but do not hoard???? Like some do with Oil and Oil Filters??????????????????//
 
but do not hoard???? Like some do with Oil and Oil Filters??????????????????//
😂
I guess it’s in our nature to do so….but when I see a good deal on my favorite filters and oil I DO stock up! 😁
By the way, the toilet paper hoarding was a perfect example. There are so many things you could substitute for wiping your butt, I had a hard time understanding that.
Remember when diapers were washed and reused? Hell I’d just **** my pants and wash them later if I had to. Just stay away from using poison ivy leaves 😂.
 
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Elon Musk is a bright spot. There are others too.

The steam engine/railroad, telegraph/telephone, light bulb, phonograph/cameras/movies, airplane, rocket, nuclear, computer, internet were all industrial related booms that fueled amazing growth.

It's possible we will see another such cycle, I just don't know what it could possibly be. If we do, all bets are off.
Sure, disrupters can start new trends and cycles and profits. But not everyone makes out. With each of those cycles, someone was left holding the bag on something else. How those in decline will make do when the costs of everything increase is a challenge. People stop buying stuff when it gets too expensive, or the costs of other things erode buying power.

The $1600 cost share that my HDHP is going to cost us this year is going to erode what I spend on other things, for example. Will that be food in restaurants? US made tools? A new computer? TBD.
 
The stock market is at a record high due to stellar corporate earnings. If you’re not pushing for more pay (or a better paying job) now to keep up with inflation, you’re being laughed at by senior management behind your back. No better time (for many companies, not all).

Think of how many companies used to have (say) 100 employees before COVID, now they have 90 after. Most all customers have come back, they can charge more for their products and services, and employees are working harder than ever, but haven’t demanded big pay raises. They are cashing in on the chaos.

Finally hints of American workers having the upper hand - better take advantage of it.

I used to play nice worker-bee, then went through a sham union-contract-busting bankruptcy that cut everything. Never again. Now I use every minute of my sick time, every day of vacation, every cent of 401k match, etc. I suggest being highly selfish in regard to your employers - almost none of them actually care about you. You’re a part number.
 
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