In my region I figured I needed 3-5 percent annual appreciation just to cover maintenance/insurance/taxes for an aging home. During the roaring period of 1996-2007 my home price doubled. So that was a big win had I sold. But the last 10 yrs they have fallen 25 percent.
So it's all about timing. If you can find a growing community that will maintain that growth for 10 to 25 yrs then that's an ideal area to buy in. Buy the right home, in the right area when prices are rising...and avoiding heavy maintenance costs during that same time, you can make out very well. If you get saddled with a new roof, new septic, new burner, new plumbing, tree removal, a new kitchen or batch, etc....owning a home can be a lot worse than renting. Try to buy fresh that gives you at least 10 yrs where big ticket items shouldn't be due. Taking down half a dozen large maple/oak trees over the past 6-10 yrs has cost me $10,000....never expected that one.
One analyst I follow feels the housing market follows a 78 yr cycle. The current one began in 1955, peaked in 2007, and will bottom around 2033. Some portions of the country will continue to grow and appreciate. Others will stagnate. And others could decline in value. Don't expect the next 15 yrs to be anything like the boom boom years of 1970's to 2000's. Different side of the cycle now.
Silicon Valley, Orange County LA, greater Boston, San Fran, and other hot markets that are probably much higher now than in 2007 are probably not the norm. It's all about location, timing, taxes/insurance, and upcoming maintenance. It varies wildly from region to region. If you own your home long enough, you may end up rebuilding one third to one half of it.
