Investors....come in please!

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Anyone could make very easy money when the federal reserve is pumping in TRILLIONS of dollars....

All my accounts hitting new highs, I’m not complaining. Have some cash ready in 2021.

These markets are highly manipulated. Lots of zombie companies on the edge of bankruptcy and economy in shambles.

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This was a good thread for a long time. While we do have the intermittent stock market type thread, I figure we should keep this one going...

So, any good leads for 2022? Im tempted to park new money in OXSQ and/or CIK for a while once I feel that the pricing to account for rate increases is baked in... just pull the monthly dividend as a reinvestment and go...
 
This was a good thread for a long time. While we do have the intermittent stock market type thread, I figure we should keep this one going...

So, any good leads for 2022? Im tempted to park new money in OXSQ and/or for a while once I feel that the pricing to account for rate increases is baked in... just pull the monthly dividend as a reinvestment and go...
I'm a pretty optimistic guy but I'd be really cautious in the coming year. In my opinion stocks in general are way above fair value.

I'm not selling out (and I have 67% in equities, which is pretty high for a retired guy) but I agree with several authors who have recommended moving to quality. Yes I might miss out on some gains but the haircut will be less severe if things turn around - when they turn around, which they will at some point.

A bubble is most evident in retrospect. "What were we thinking!"
 
I'm a pretty optimistic guy but I'd be really cautious in the coming year. In my opinion stocks in general are way above fair value.

I'm not selling out (and I have 67% in equities, which is pretty high for a retired guy) but I agree with several authors who have recommended moving to quality. Yes I might miss out on some gains but the haircut will be less severe if things turn around - when they turn around, which they will at some point.

A bubble is most evident in retrospect. "What were we thinking!"
Totally agree. Not buying into the broader market right now, letting new money generally sit or pick something up here or there. At the same time dont want idle cash.

But this thread generally oriented towards specific companies, trades, etc. So I figure there may be some good ideas yet. I think most small time amateur investors who enjoy it have realized that indexing is a good way to go, but still generally have an account for buying individual stocks of interest....
 
Thanks for the revival. This is and should be the investment thread.

For sure the time is not now for bond FUNDS.

I THINK the real question isn't when. The when part will be judged by how the Fed perceives the health of the economy.

The question for the income investors is what segments will get hit hardest?
 
Looking for opinions on retiring early using the 4% rule.
I dreamed for a long time of getting there and being financially independent, and finally made it a few months ago, but being invested totally in the market is very scary to stop working and relying on the investment income.

A few details
The 4% withdrawal rate I am including buying health insurance and is giving slightly more money than I have now each month.
50% of portfolio is mutual funds and 50% actively managed that includes a mix of funds and bonds.
About 70% is a non retirement investment and 30% is Roth ira.
The 4% withdrawal rate I am factoring in the total amount including the Roth, so would be taking more then 4% from the non Roth investment until eligible to withdraw from Roth at ag 59.5 .
Age 45 with no debt.
Don't love my job, but don't hate it most of the time. Would be happier not working and doing other things if that would be an option.
Thanks for any thoughts/opinions
 
Sounds like you've done some good planning and saving to be able to FIRE at 45. I might make a couple of suggestions you could look into to see if they might be appropriate to your situation.

1. Additional backdoor funding of your Roth IRA while you are still working. Since you are looking at a retirement horizon of close to 45 years (best case, or worst case, depending on how you look at it), getting more into the Roth where all your gains are tax free makes sense, especially since you are looking at at least 14 years before making any withdrawals.
2. I personally hate bonds and bond funds right now. Returns are well below the inflation rate and you risk losses when interest rates rise. I do agree you need a few years worth of withdrawals not invested in stocks/mutual funds/ETFs to avoid sequence of return risks (withdrawals made by being forced to sell stocks in a down market), I'm just not sure bonds should hold that historical place.
3. Your safe bucket of funds should be in your ordinary accounts. With such a long horizon, your Roth should stay fully invested.

For more information than you could ever want on Financial Independence Retire Early (FIRE), check out the forums on Mr. Money Mustache. Also check out Bogleheads forum if you haven't already.
 
Sounds like you've done some good planning and saving to be able to FIRE at 45. I might make a couple of suggestions you could look into to see if they might be appropriate to your situation.

1. Additional backdoor funding of your Roth IRA while you are still working. Since you are looking at a retirement horizon of close to 45 years (best case, or worst case, depending on how you look at it), getting more into the Roth where all your gains are tax free makes sense, especially since you are looking at at least 14 years before making any withdrawals.
2. I personally hate bonds and bond funds right now. Returns are well below the inflation rate and you risk losses when interest rates rise. I do agree you need a few years worth of withdrawals not invested in stocks/mutual funds/ETFs to avoid sequence of return risks (withdrawals made by being forced to sell stocks in a down market), I'm just not sure bonds should hold that historical place.
3. Your safe bucket of funds should be in your ordinary accounts. With such a long horizon, your Roth should stay fully invested.

For more information than you could ever want on Financial Independence Retire Early (FIRE), check out the forums on Mr. Money Mustache. Also check out Bogleheads forum if you haven't already.
Thanks for the suggestions, and I will check out the forums you mentioned.
And as far as bond's go, I don't particularly like them either but I have some indirectly through an actively managed account I moved some investments over to a few years ago with the understanding I would have slightly less gains but also less volatile, and so far happy with the performance.
 
Thanks for the revival. This is and should be the investment thread.

For sure the time is not now for bond FUNDS.

I THINK the real question isn't when. The when part will be judged by how the Fed perceives the health of the economy.

The question for the income investors is what segments will get hit hardest?

What if the markets take a small initial hit when rates increase yet they keep churning higher and higher ?

Anything is possible....
 
Fixed Income is really the ballast for a portfolio. It used to be a safety cushion of sorts but the past few years have changed that. With that said they still have purpose. Fixed income encompasses a wide array of products. One must also think globally.

So, just like specific stocks sectors do better than others in certain market trends, fixed income is the same.

Inflation adjusted bonds are something to look at as one example.
 
Fixed Income is really the ballast for a portfolio. It used to be a safety cushion of sorts but the past few years have changed that. With that said they still have purpose. Fixed income encompasses a wide array of products. One must also think globally.

So, just like specific stocks sectors do better than others in certain market trends, fixed income is the same.

Inflation adjusted bonds are something to look at as one example.
For some, like me, a bond fund can help balance a portfolio and make sense. Schwab has a double tax free CA municipal bond fund.
Does it make TSLA money? Heck no, nothing does. But it doesn't have TSLA risk either.
 
What if the markets take a small initial hit when rates increase yet they keep churning higher and higher ?

Anything is possible....
I'm sure that's what will happen in the long run.

I was more thinking what income/interest bearing issues would be hit the hardest with the rate hikes?

What class of bonds?
Munis?
Junk?
CEF's of a variety of stripes?
ETF bond funds?
Mutual bond funds?
REITs - many flavors?
Hi divi stocks?
etc....
 
For some, like me, a bond fund can help balance a portfolio and make sense. Schwab has a double tax free CA municipal bond fund.
Does it make TSLA money? Heck no, nothing does. But it doesn't have TSLA risk either.

But doesn’t everything ultimately comes down to the level of risk a person is willing to take / accept ?

Ive always felt my portfolio should have **some** higher risk stocks and ETFs than a basic S&P 500 fund.
 
But doesn’t everything ultimately comes down to the level of risk a person is willing to take / accept ?

Ive always felt my portfolio should have **some** higher risk stocks and ETFs than a basic S&P 500 fund.
Yes. Perhaps is comes down to how lucky a person is.
Schwab keeps trying to reel me in as I am so overweight in tech, mainly due to my 15 years of stock options and grants from work.
We finally agreed to let them do the Private Advisor stuff and I handle the individual stock stuff.

All good. Hind sight is 20/20 anyways, right?
 
My observation is that investors are becoming more interested in yield. Recently SPYD is doing very well compared to other SP--- etfs.
 
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