Investors....come in please!

[Turk]

Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
I mean, it's all a matter of what yield you have and what interest rates do; if the market doesn't hickup, or it's a little hickup, and it keeps skyrocketing, rates will start rising more and more which kills the price of bonds. At what point does the dropping NAV counteract the dividends you get. I guess it doesn't really matter much if you don't sell it and you're happy with the dividend. As rates rise, the price of any bond fund is going to start looking uglier and uglier, especially on longer dated funds.


Yup.

I sold 1/2 my FNMIX, SPHIX & SNGVX in my Rollover.

Still have full FNMIX in my regular acct.

Have PONDX & THOPX which are short duration and TOP performers.

 

[JHZR2]

Forgot to note that I loaded up on FTE yesterday at 10.92. Will dump it around $11.50 or so for a nice profit.

 

[Mr Nice]

"Loaded up" as in how many shares ?

 

[JHZR2]

My typical 1000 share lot. Just enough to make play money from easy trades and not enough to put any portfolio in risk.

 

[Turk]

Is NFLX a buy now or no?

 

[Pablo]

Sold all my DCTH yesterday. Nice pop up and I'm out. Good gain.

 

[Turk]

Up 19% short term on PG in my regular acct.

Should I sell & take profit, then buy back lower, or hang on and ride the wave? Is it making a new floor or drop back down?

 

[Pablo]

I say take profits and move on in this market. I'm thinking of raising cash positions.

 

[Turk]

Originally Posted By: Pablo
I say take profits and move on in this market. I'm think of raising cash positions.


Yea, leaning toward that, buy I'd have to pay more in taxes next year. Don't like selling taxable positions, but I'll probably sell.

 

[friendly_jacek]

Is this sell off the real deal? It certainly started with a rapid decline today.
I'm loaded with shorts and waiting.

This started with good news on labor market (means less money printing). This is how sick the stock market is.

 

[Drew99GT]

Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Is this sell off the real deal? It certainly started with a rapid decline today.
I'm loaded with shorts and waiting.

This started with good news on labor market (means less money printing). This is how sick the stock market is.


I just got around to looking at the markets and noticed the decline in weekly claims and came to the same conclusion. In the long run however, weekly claims (inverse) track perfectly with the SP500/Dow.

I think this is all technical selling; the resistance trendline that has encompassed the top range of the indexes since 2009 is the same resistance trendline that held the market since the great depression!

 

[JHZR2]

Have a chart? Interesting stuff.

 

[Drew99GT]

here's the Dow going back to the 1900s



Here it is today. Pretty remarkable that those trendlines are what's holding the market right now at the blue arrows.

 

[Drew99GT]

Here's an awesome look at those trendline with historic dates from Kimble Charting Solutions. I almost fell out of my chair when I started adding dates to trendline charts at important inflection points. I certainly hope his analysis doesn't prove correct though.

 

[Turk]

I

charts.

Thanks so much for these last 2 posts. Be careful out there...

 

[Mr Nice]

How much higher until a massive sell off ?

I'm thinking about bailing a pulling the ripcord.

 

[Warstud]

We have been in a trading range since the beginning of the month.
On the SPX the top of the trading range is around 1515 and the bottom is around 1497. GL

 

[Turk]

Originally Posted By: LT4 Vette
How much higher until a massive sell off ?

I'm thinking about bailing a pulling the ripcord.



Wondering the same thing. I heard institutional selling will start Friday or early next week, but who knows for sure.

I'm going to take lots of profits tomorrow morning.

Right now, I'm:

Domestic Stock 34%
Bonds 37%
Short Term 23%

Think I'll cut my stock exposure in 1/2. BUT, the heck of it is, most of my stock is in dividend growth investing, so I would have to take away a good share of that....

Hummm...

 

[Drew99GT]

On the same token, you could look at it like, how much lower until I can get in at the beginning of the next cyclical bull market? The market popped up and out of those trendlines in 2000 and 2007. Who's to say it won't pop up and those lines will be support for the next several decades?

 

[JHZR2]

Thanks for the charts!

On all my big div stuff, Im staying tight, as lower share prices just give me more shares purchased. Of course if it all comes crashing down and divvys get cut across the board, Im in trouble, but companies strike me as flush with cash and energy costs rising.

For some of the other stuff, I may start to limit exposure, but a lot of what I actively trade is actually at its low points, so Im not sure I have a huge risk.

Ive been sitting on a bunch of MON since like $50/share. Its over $100. Dont want to take the tax hit, but is there much more room? Its not a big payer, and it is established, unlike ARNA which Im still sitting on a many hundreds of percent profit, but I think Ill stay for the long run...

Havent looked at PF recently for their guidance...