Yap, save for the frantic resorts to inflate the problem away by money printing by central bankers, it's basically a great depression 2. The fact it was doctored with means it will not heal anytime soon.
Investors....come in please!
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Originally Posted By: Tempest
The US is going through the worst economic recovery...ever.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-24/its-official-worst-recovery-ever
So the receding GDP wasn't a big surprise.
The GDP report was actually pretty good if you want to gauge consumer spending. It was a drop in government spending which killed the report. I'm not advocating any policy over another, just pointing out the obvious. If we were to try the Europe approach - ie pay off debt/by definition shrink government spending, it would by identity lead to negative GDP growth at this point.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/jo...dp-shocker.html
The US is going through the worst economic recovery...ever.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-24/its-official-worst-recovery-ever
So the receding GDP wasn't a big surprise.
The GDP report was actually pretty good if you want to gauge consumer spending. It was a drop in government spending which killed the report. I'm not advocating any policy over another, just pointing out the obvious. If we were to try the Europe approach - ie pay off debt/by definition shrink government spending, it would by identity lead to negative GDP growth at this point.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/jo...dp-shocker.html
Let's talk High Yield Bond Funds...
I got a big chunk of SPHIX (Fid. High Income Fund) in my Rollover IRA and it has done well.
Thinking about cutting my exposure in half.
3-5 year duration & maturity
22% Grade BB
54% B
11% CCC & below
Good idea? Does it look like it's going on a downslope or keep plugging away?
I got a big chunk of SPHIX (Fid. High Income Fund) in my Rollover IRA and it has done well.
Thinking about cutting my exposure in half.
3-5 year duration & maturity
22% Grade BB
54% B
11% CCC & below
Good idea? Does it look like it's going on a downslope or keep plugging away?
Originally Posted By: Turk
Thinking PGH is putting in a bottom here.
Nice 9.8% Mo-Pay Dividend to boot.
Looking at this as well.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1111661-pengrowth-energy-goes-all-in-on-lindbergh
?
Thinking PGH is putting in a bottom here.
Nice 9.8% Mo-Pay Dividend to boot.
Looking at this as well.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1111661-pengrowth-energy-goes-all-in-on-lindbergh
?
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
The GDP report was actually pretty good if you want to gauge consumer spending. It was a drop in government spending which killed the report. I'm not advocating any policy over another, just pointing out the obvious. If we were to try the Europe approach - ie pay off debt/by definition shrink government spending, it would by identity lead to negative GDP growth at this point.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/jo...dp-shocker.html
True. It is one of the major flaws in the GDP metric:
Quote:
Hiring a worker who (through no fault of her own) accomplishes absolutely nothing raises GDP if the government does the hiring. Hiring a worker who (through no fault of her own) accomplishes absolutely nothing does nothing to GDP if the private sector does the hiring.
Why? Because GDP counts government salaries as "government expenditures" as soon as the government hires a person. But the "consumption" and "investment" parts of GDP only count genuine purchases by the private sector (leaving the oddities of imputed spending for the coda below).
So if a private sector product spends years in the incubator, burning through thousands of person-hours of work and millions of dollars of salary--but never sees the light of day--then the product never shows up in GDP. But if the government had hired those same workers who worked just as long on a similarly fruitless project, their labor would give a big boost to GDP.
Government hiring creates GDP by definition. Private hiring only creates GDP if the worker actually creates a product.
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2013/01/government_purc.html
The GDP report was actually pretty good if you want to gauge consumer spending. It was a drop in government spending which killed the report. I'm not advocating any policy over another, just pointing out the obvious. If we were to try the Europe approach - ie pay off debt/by definition shrink government spending, it would by identity lead to negative GDP growth at this point.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/jo...dp-shocker.html
True. It is one of the major flaws in the GDP metric:
Quote:
Hiring a worker who (through no fault of her own) accomplishes absolutely nothing raises GDP if the government does the hiring. Hiring a worker who (through no fault of her own) accomplishes absolutely nothing does nothing to GDP if the private sector does the hiring.
Why? Because GDP counts government salaries as "government expenditures" as soon as the government hires a person. But the "consumption" and "investment" parts of GDP only count genuine purchases by the private sector (leaving the oddities of imputed spending for the coda below).
So if a private sector product spends years in the incubator, burning through thousands of person-hours of work and millions of dollars of salary--but never sees the light of day--then the product never shows up in GDP. But if the government had hired those same workers who worked just as long on a similarly fruitless project, their labor would give a big boost to GDP.
Government hiring creates GDP by definition. Private hiring only creates GDP if the worker actually creates a product.
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2013/01/government_purc.html
Originally Posted By: surfstar
Originally Posted By: Turk
Thinking PGH is putting in a bottom here.
Nice 9.8% Mo-Pay Dividend to boot.
Looking at this as well.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1111661-pengrowth-energy-goes-all-in-on-lindbergh
?
Dang, I'd say that's a great looking stock from a chart pattern point of view; textbook falling wedge right to horizontal support. Technical traders will be all over that, at least for a bounce trade.
Originally Posted By: Turk
Thinking PGH is putting in a bottom here.
Nice 9.8% Mo-Pay Dividend to boot.
Looking at this as well.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1111661-pengrowth-energy-goes-all-in-on-lindbergh
?
Dang, I'd say that's a great looking stock from a chart pattern point of view; textbook falling wedge right to horizontal support. Technical traders will be all over that, at least for a bounce trade.
JHZR2
Staff member
Call my charting capabilities poor, but where are you seeing the falling wedge? It looks like it is in a falling channel.
Of course, Im surely wrong, as I got in to AT today, but at too high a price point on its dump, and I didnt get into PBI which went up >$2 today...
Lost money left and right for me.
Of course, Im surely wrong, as I got in to AT today, but at too high a price point on its dump, and I didnt get into PBI which went up >$2 today...
Lost money left and right for me.
You're right that it's in a falling channel, but the last leg down to the bottom support line is a falling wedge, and it's right to the support line from the flash crash of 2010. It would need to get past the top resistance line. That's why I think at a minimum, it would be an excellent bounce trade. I only use log charts.
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I bought PBI about 2 months ago for a long hold. Even on the pop today, still holding.
JHZR2
Staff member
Originally Posted By: Hokiefyd
I bought PBI about 2 months ago for a long hold. Even on the pop today, still holding.
hate you
I bought PBI about 2 months ago for a long hold. Even on the pop today, still holding.
hate you
Originally Posted By: Turk
Let's talk High Yield Bond Funds...
I got a big chunk of SPHIX (Fid. High Income Fund) in my Rollover IRA and it has done well.
Thinking about cutting my exposure in half.
3-5 year duration & maturity
22% Grade BB
54% B
11% CCC & below
Good idea? Does it look like it's going on a downslope or keep plugging away?
Anyone??
Let's talk High Yield Bond Funds...
I got a big chunk of SPHIX (Fid. High Income Fund) in my Rollover IRA and it has done well.
Thinking about cutting my exposure in half.
3-5 year duration & maturity
22% Grade BB
54% B
11% CCC & below
Good idea? Does it look like it's going on a downslope or keep plugging away?
Anyone??
JHZR2
Staff member
Im avoiding bonds at all costs, both due to age and interest rates. I do have a lot of mreits that yield really high... Id want to limit exposure besides munis which never yielded much different and are a tax shelter thing...
Picked up some PGH today - hope its good for a long hold.
All my stuff is in Roths and mostly funds and ETF funds. Thought I could play a bit with a stock or two to keep me more active.
All my stuff is in Roths and mostly funds and ETF funds. Thought I could play a bit with a stock or two to keep me more active.
JHZR2
Staff member
Originally Posted By: surfstar
Picked up some PGH today - hope its good for a long hold.
All my stuff is in Roths and mostly funds and ETF funds. Thought I could play a bit with a stock or two to keep me more active.
bib pop today, how you got it in the 60's.
Picked up some PGH today - hope its good for a long hold.
All my stuff is in Roths and mostly funds and ETF funds. Thought I could play a bit with a stock or two to keep me more active.
bib pop today, how you got it in the 60's.
Originally Posted By: Hokiefyd
I bought PBI about 2 months ago for a long hold. Even on the pop today, still holding.
I dumped all 16,000 shares I was holding, average cost $11.45, average hold time about 45 days.
I just couldn't resist!
My big dividend payer is WHZ, so dumping the PBI does not hurt my dividend stream too much.
I bought PBI about 2 months ago for a long hold. Even on the pop today, still holding.
I dumped all 16,000 shares I was holding, average cost $11.45, average hold time about 45 days.
I just couldn't resist!
My big dividend payer is WHZ, so dumping the PBI does not hurt my dividend stream too much.
Originally Posted By: Turk
Originally Posted By: Turk
Let's talk High Yield Bond Funds...
I got a big chunk of SPHIX (Fid. High Income Fund) in my Rollover IRA and it has done well.
Thinking about cutting my exposure in half.
3-5 year duration & maturity
22% Grade BB
54% B
11% CCC & below
Good idea? Does it look like it's going on a downslope or keep plugging away?
Anyone??
I've been holding it, I like the dividends every month, and its been "plugging away." I'd be interested in seeing what you active traders think.
Originally Posted By: Turk
Let's talk High Yield Bond Funds...
I got a big chunk of SPHIX (Fid. High Income Fund) in my Rollover IRA and it has done well.
Thinking about cutting my exposure in half.
3-5 year duration & maturity
22% Grade BB
54% B
11% CCC & below
Good idea? Does it look like it's going on a downslope or keep plugging away?
Anyone??
I've been holding it, I like the dividends every month, and its been "plugging away." I'd be interested in seeing what you active traders think.
Sold WFT and BMY for nice plump gains today. I almost sold more, but I have nads of steel. Just kidding.
I mean, it's all a matter of what yield you have and what interest rates do; if the market doesn't hickup, or it's a little hickup, and it keeps skyrocketing, rates will start rising more and more which kills the price of bonds. At what point does the dropping NAV counteract the dividends you get. I guess it doesn't really matter much if you don't sell it and you're happy with the dividend. As rates rise, the price of any bond fund is going to start looking uglier and uglier, especially on longer dated funds.
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