Investors....come in please!
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Originally Posted By: Turk
PIMCO's Gross warns investors of looming inflation
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimcos-gross-warns-investors-looming-164905487.html
I don't know. I mentioned Bill Gross at the end of a story and Helen said it immediately became poltical and removed the thread. I never got to see the replies.
PIMCO's Gross warns investors of looming inflation
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimcos-gross-warns-investors-looming-164905487.html
I don't know. I mentioned Bill Gross at the end of a story and Helen said it immediately became poltical and removed the thread. I never got to see the replies.
JHZR2
Staff member
Anyone have comments on this article citing ARR buybacks?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/02/2-stocks-that-are-wasting-your-money-5.aspx
And what am I missing regarding shipping. I took a loss for tax purposes on vlccf of 31 dec., and it's sprung up nice, same for NMM.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/02/2-stocks-that-are-wasting-your-money-5.aspx
And what am I missing regarding shipping. I took a loss for tax purposes on vlccf of 31 dec., and it's sprung up nice, same for NMM.
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Anyone have comments on this article citing ARR buybacks?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/02/2-stocks-that-are-wasting-your-money-5.aspx
No biggie.
I got LOTS of ARR at a 17.17% yield. So what if that goes down a smidge.
Long ARR.
Anyone have comments on this article citing ARR buybacks?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/02/2-stocks-that-are-wasting-your-money-5.aspx
No biggie.
I got LOTS of ARR at a 17.17% yield. So what if that goes down a smidge.
Long ARR.
Originally Posted By: Turk
When do you think it'll be time to start cutting back on short-term Bond Funds?
I'm pretty heavy in them.
4 more years?
When do you think it'll be time to start cutting back on short-term Bond Funds?
I'm pretty heavy in them.
4 more years?
Originally Posted By: Turk
When do you think it'll be time to start cutting back on short-term Bond Funds?
I'm pretty heavy in them.
http://www.investmentu.com/2012/May/how-to-invest-in-bonds.html
Apparently it's better to hold actual bonds to maturity in a rising rate environment. Even if a fund has a short maturity and they hold to maturity, the NAV of the fund will drop with rates rising. That's why the REITs have been dropping recently.
When do you think it'll be time to start cutting back on short-term Bond Funds?
I'm pretty heavy in them.
http://www.investmentu.com/2012/May/how-to-invest-in-bonds.html
Apparently it's better to hold actual bonds to maturity in a rising rate environment. Even if a fund has a short maturity and they hold to maturity, the NAV of the fund will drop with rates rising. That's why the REITs have been dropping recently.
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Turk
When do you think it'll be time to start cutting back on short-term Bond Funds?
I'm pretty heavy in them.
http://www.investmentu.com/2012/May/how-to-invest-in-bonds.html
Apparently it's better to hold actual bonds to maturity in a rising rate environment. Even if a fund has a short maturity and they hold to maturity, the NAV of the fund will drop with rates rising. That's why the REITs have been dropping recently.
My REIT's have gone through the roof lately!
Look at ARR, NYMY & AGNC the past few days...
Originally Posted By: Turk
When do you think it'll be time to start cutting back on short-term Bond Funds?
I'm pretty heavy in them.
http://www.investmentu.com/2012/May/how-to-invest-in-bonds.html
Apparently it's better to hold actual bonds to maturity in a rising rate environment. Even if a fund has a short maturity and they hold to maturity, the NAV of the fund will drop with rates rising. That's why the REITs have been dropping recently.
My REIT's have gone through the roof lately!
Look at ARR, NYMY & AGNC the past few days...
JHZR2
Staff member
Originally Posted By: Turk
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Turk
When do you think it'll be time to start cutting back on short-term Bond Funds?
I'm pretty heavy in them.
http://www.investmentu.com/2012/May/how-to-invest-in-bonds.html
Apparently it's better to hold actual bonds to maturity in a rising rate environment. Even if a fund has a short maturity and they hold to maturity, the NAV of the fund will drop with rates rising. That's why the REITs have been dropping recently.
My REIT's have gone through the roof lately!
Look at ARR, NYMY & AGNC the past few days...
Exactly, mine too!
Thing with short term bond funds, dont the NAVs increase during the time of dropping rates only? Once rates stagnate, the valuaton cannot keep increasing at the same rate as there is no dynamic of the vaulation of bonds the way there was when it was trading during the rate drop period.
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Turk
When do you think it'll be time to start cutting back on short-term Bond Funds?
I'm pretty heavy in them.
http://www.investmentu.com/2012/May/how-to-invest-in-bonds.html
Apparently it's better to hold actual bonds to maturity in a rising rate environment. Even if a fund has a short maturity and they hold to maturity, the NAV of the fund will drop with rates rising. That's why the REITs have been dropping recently.
My REIT's have gone through the roof lately!
Look at ARR, NYMY & AGNC the past few days...
Exactly, mine too!
Thing with short term bond funds, dont the NAVs increase during the time of dropping rates only? Once rates stagnate, the valuaton cannot keep increasing at the same rate as there is no dynamic of the vaulation of bonds the way there was when it was trading during the rate drop period.
JHZR2
Staff member
Originally Posted By: Turk
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Anyone have comments on this article citing ARR buybacks?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/02/2-stocks-that-are-wasting-your-money-5.aspx
No biggie.
I got LOTS of ARR at a 17.17% yield. So what if that goes down a smidge.
Long ARR.
Yeah me too, but if it takes a nice trajectory down 20%, it just wiped out the entire year's yield, which if in a taxable account is still taxed, and if in an untaxed account, is just still stagnant.
Stagnant money doesnt do much for me... Especially in my early 30s.
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Anyone have comments on this article citing ARR buybacks?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/02/2-stocks-that-are-wasting-your-money-5.aspx
No biggie.
I got LOTS of ARR at a 17.17% yield. So what if that goes down a smidge.
Long ARR.
Yeah me too, but if it takes a nice trajectory down 20%, it just wiped out the entire year's yield, which if in a taxable account is still taxed, and if in an untaxed account, is just still stagnant.
Stagnant money doesnt do much for me... Especially in my early 30s.
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Exactly, mine too!
Thing with short term bond funds, dont the NAVs increase during the time of dropping rates only? Once rates stagnate, the valuaton cannot keep increasing at the same rate as there is no dynamic of the vaulation of bonds the way there was when it was trading during the rate drop period.
Right.
That's where the dividends take over and provide to us.
If this economy (somehow) takes off & running, it'll be time to pare back or dump bond funds. But, mine are mainly short:
PONDX
FNMIX
FTBFX - stupid to buy it somewhat recently
THOPX
SPHIX
Exactly, mine too!
Thing with short term bond funds, dont the NAVs increase during the time of dropping rates only? Once rates stagnate, the valuaton cannot keep increasing at the same rate as there is no dynamic of the vaulation of bonds the way there was when it was trading during the rate drop period.
Right.
That's where the dividends take over and provide to us.
If this economy (somehow) takes off & running, it'll be time to pare back or dump bond funds. But, mine are mainly short:
PONDX
FNMIX
FTBFX - stupid to buy it somewhat recently
THOPX
SPHIX
JHZR2
Staff member
But again, when NAV takes a 20% dump, the yield on bond funds or REITs or whatever ther high yielding stuff only buffers (and nicely dollar cost averaged, assuming the div isnt killed) the loss. The loss is still the loss. The money isnt actively making any real return...
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
But again, when NAV takes a 20% dump, the yield on bond funds or REITs or whatever ther high yielding stuff only buffers (and nicely dollar cost averaged, assuming the div isnt killed) the loss. The loss is still the loss. The money isnt actively making any real return...
Right again, but it's ok if you don't want/need the principal and the dividend income is fine.
So for me, I am looking at when (??) to pare back on bond funds where I don't want/need the income.
But again, when NAV takes a 20% dump, the yield on bond funds or REITs or whatever ther high yielding stuff only buffers (and nicely dollar cost averaged, assuming the div isnt killed) the loss. The loss is still the loss. The money isnt actively making any real return...
Right again, but it's ok if you don't want/need the principal and the dividend income is fine.
So for me, I am looking at when (??) to pare back on bond funds where I don't want/need the income.
Trying to be more assertive & premptive in my investments this year. You know, be where the return are coming, not where they were...
Right now, in all my accounts I'm:
35% US Stock (Medium Blend)
1% Foreign Stock
48% Bonds (Medium Inv. Grade, Low End Intermediate Term)
14% Cash
What's your distributions?
Where do you think the larger returns are going to come from this year?
Right now, in all my accounts I'm:
35% US Stock (Medium Blend)
1% Foreign Stock
48% Bonds (Medium Inv. Grade, Low End Intermediate Term)
14% Cash
What's your distributions?
Where do you think the larger returns are going to come from this year?
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
But again, when NAV takes a 20% dump, the yield on bond funds or REITs or whatever ther high yielding stuff only buffers (and nicely dollar cost averaged, assuming the div isnt killed) the loss. The loss is still the loss. The money isnt actively making any real return...
Just found this - here you go:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1095341-estimating-bond-interest-rates-without-fed-buying
But again, when NAV takes a 20% dump, the yield on bond funds or REITs or whatever ther high yielding stuff only buffers (and nicely dollar cost averaged, assuming the div isnt killed) the loss. The loss is still the loss. The money isnt actively making any real return...
Just found this - here you go:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1095341-estimating-bond-interest-rates-without-fed-buying
Originally Posted By: Turk
Look at ARR, NYMY & AGNC the past few days...
They're down on average 10% since QE3's announcement. This is where I wonder exactly what the Fed is doing; all one has to do is chart out bond prices and rates during each QE from start to end and rates/bond prices do the exact opposite of what the Fed publicly states they're trying to do! Rates increase and bond prices drop, to include MBSs.
"One should also note that the effect on mortgage rates depends on what happens to other rates, such as Treasury yields, as well as the spread. But the yield on 10-year Treasuries has risen since QE3. So in effect, the overall effect on mortgage rates could even end up being counter to the Fed's intentions in the end.
http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-eroding-effect-of-qe3-on-mortgage.html
Look at ARR, NYMY & AGNC the past few days...
They're down on average 10% since QE3's announcement. This is where I wonder exactly what the Fed is doing; all one has to do is chart out bond prices and rates during each QE from start to end and rates/bond prices do the exact opposite of what the Fed publicly states they're trying to do! Rates increase and bond prices drop, to include MBSs.
"One should also note that the effect on mortgage rates depends on what happens to other rates, such as Treasury yields, as well as the spread. But the yield on 10-year Treasuries has risen since QE3. So in effect, the overall effect on mortgage rates could even end up being counter to the Fed's intentions in the end.
http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-eroding-effect-of-qe3-on-mortgage.html
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Turk
Look at ARR, NYMY & AGNC the past few days...
They're down on average 10% since QE3's announcement. This is where I wonder exactly what the Fed is doing; all one has to do is chart out bond prices and rates during each QE from start to end and rates/bond prices do the exact opposite of what the Fed publicly states they're trying to do! Rates increase and bond prices drop, to include MBSs.
"One should also note that the effect on mortgage rates depends on what happens to other rates, such as Treasury yields, as well as the spread. But the yield on 10-year Treasuries has risen since QE3. So in effect, the overall effect on mortgage rates could even end up being counter to the Fed's intentions in the end.
http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-eroding-effect-of-qe3-on-mortgage.html
This is what I'm trying to get my mind around as well.
Originally Posted By: Turk
Look at ARR, NYMY & AGNC the past few days...
They're down on average 10% since QE3's announcement. This is where I wonder exactly what the Fed is doing; all one has to do is chart out bond prices and rates during each QE from start to end and rates/bond prices do the exact opposite of what the Fed publicly states they're trying to do! Rates increase and bond prices drop, to include MBSs.
"One should also note that the effect on mortgage rates depends on what happens to other rates, such as Treasury yields, as well as the spread. But the yield on 10-year Treasuries has risen since QE3. So in effect, the overall effect on mortgage rates could even end up being counter to the Fed's intentions in the end.
http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-eroding-effect-of-qe3-on-mortgage.html
This is what I'm trying to get my mind around as well.
That article is flawed from the get go. He says "There is little question Fed participation in the bond market has sent bond prices higher and rates lower"
That's empirically false by simply looking at a chart of rates! Here's 10 year rates from start to finish of each QE program; rates have been dropping, and Fed bond buying made rates rise against the trend. A chart of bond prices/MBS prices looks like the opposite.
Seems to me if the Fed stopped these programs, and if they had any stimulative effect at all, and that went away, rates would start dropping again. If Japan is a case study, that's exactly what would happen. Japan has had to work hard to keep rates from going negative. I still don't exactly know why this happens, but if I've learned anything, don't fight a chart. That bottom trend line of the bigger parallel channel goes back 2 decades so it's going to be incredible resistance to rates rising, and if rates stop their rise there and plummet again, it probably won't be good for equities. The TNX chart tracks very well with the SP500. If the 10 year rates busts through those decades long parallel channels, the stock market will probably be going through the roof.
That's empirically false by simply looking at a chart of rates! Here's 10 year rates from start to finish of each QE program; rates have been dropping, and Fed bond buying made rates rise against the trend. A chart of bond prices/MBS prices looks like the opposite.
Seems to me if the Fed stopped these programs, and if they had any stimulative effect at all, and that went away, rates would start dropping again. If Japan is a case study, that's exactly what would happen. Japan has had to work hard to keep rates from going negative. I still don't exactly know why this happens, but if I've learned anything, don't fight a chart. That bottom trend line of the bigger parallel channel goes back 2 decades so it's going to be incredible resistance to rates rising, and if rates stop their rise there and plummet again, it probably won't be good for equities. The TNX chart tracks very well with the SP500. If the 10 year rates busts through those decades long parallel channels, the stock market will probably be going through the roof.
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Seems to me if the Fed stopped these programs, and if they had any stimulative effect at all, and that went away, rates would start dropping again. If Japan is a case study, that's exactly what would happen. Japan has had to work hard to keep rates from going negative. I still don't exactly know why this happens, but if I've learned anything, don't fight a chart. That bottom trend line of the bigger parallel channel goes back 2 decades so it's going to be incredible resistance to rates rising, and if rates stop their rise there and plummet again, it probably won't be good for equities. The TNX chart tracks very well with the SP500. If the 10 year rates busts through those decades long parallel channels, the stock market will probably be going through the roof.
Thanks!
I counted 6 "if's" & 2 "probably's"
Seems to me if the Fed stopped these programs, and if they had any stimulative effect at all, and that went away, rates would start dropping again. If Japan is a case study, that's exactly what would happen. Japan has had to work hard to keep rates from going negative. I still don't exactly know why this happens, but if I've learned anything, don't fight a chart. That bottom trend line of the bigger parallel channel goes back 2 decades so it's going to be incredible resistance to rates rising, and if rates stop their rise there and plummet again, it probably won't be good for equities. The TNX chart tracks very well with the SP500. If the 10 year rates busts through those decades long parallel channels, the stock market will probably be going through the roof.
Thanks!
I counted 6 "if's" & 2 "probably's"
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