Investors....come in please!

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Hi guys, been away for a while; death in the family and other things that takes away from BITOG time. Glad to see you're all making money.....

Here's my take on the market, FWIW: This little rally will probably take us up to near 14,000 Dow, but not exceed previous highs. If this happens into Jan, it forms a double top so look for a severe downturn in Feb possibly as much as 15% over several months. 2008 will be choppy but we can trade the rallys if we're quick. Bear market area is 20% down, but I don't see the major averages getting quite that low.

I still like defense stocks for 08. Bush announced a 10B sale of Patriot missles to UAE yesterday, with RTN and LMT as prime contractors. I think these overseas sales will continue for the next several years.....
 
up really well on TMA as of today... bought on dips averaging mid-$9's. Been buying PFO on bad days, since I can't see it going much lower, and the yield is ~8%. As more foreclosures and bad banking issues arise, Ill buy more for a while then hold long-term.

JMH
 
TMA is looking better all the time..
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My portfolio is still down about 6.5% since October. It's mainly affected by Hershey and Citi (-11% and 21% respectively). Still waiting for some stocks to appreciate before I sell (Celadon and Martha Steward which are up 15% and 7% since November when I bought them).

Overall, my outlook is optimistic until mid-January.
 
Originally Posted By: CivicFan
(Celadon and Martha Steward which are up 15% and 7% since November when I bought them).


Martha Steward??? Is she the "Martha Stewart" of the airline industry?
wink.gif


j/k good picks on those two!

JMH
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Martha Steward??? Is she the "Martha Stewart" of the airline industry?
wink.gif



She's the head of Con Air.
 
Looks like I'm gonna have to work out what to do with a chunk of unexpected dough.

Announced today that the company I work for is going to be sold in the not too distant future. $50k "transfer payment" to go over to there, taxed at 40%.

What to do after Feds get $20k of it ?

Bank Interest is 6.75%, Interest taxed at 40%...nope.
Invest in stock, capital gains taxed at 30%. Dividends (unless franked) taxed at 40%.
Superannuation. Super company made 14.5% last year. Taxed at 15% at 60, or 0% at 65.

Think I've answered it.
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Looks like I'm gonna have to work out what to do with a chunk of unexpected dough.

Announced today that the company I work for is going to be sold in the not too distant future. $50k "transfer payment" to go over to there, taxed at 40%.

What to do after Feds get $20k of it ?

Bank Interest is 6.75%, Interest taxed at 40%...nope.
Invest in stock, capital gains taxed at 30%. Dividends (unless franked) taxed at 40%.
Superannuation. Super company made 14.5% last year. Taxed at 15% at 60, or 0% at 65.

Think I've answered it.


So the price of "paradise" comes out. Regular Joe Schome interest is taxed more than cap gains and regular income? Yikes. 40% wow!

Indeed, so this "superannuation" is not really tax deferred? If you hold it until 65, no tax at all? SWEET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Originally Posted By: Pablo
So the price of "paradise" comes out. Regular Joe Schome interest is taxed more than cap gains and regular income? Yikes. 40% wow!


Yep, advice from the ATO this financial year is that my overtime and interest will be taxed at 40.2 (or 40.3)%

Originally Posted By: Pablo
Indeed, so this "superannuation" is not really tax deferred? If you hold it until 65, no tax at all? SWEET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


The rules change so often that it's hard to keep track of.

There will be tax deferred on some portions of it, as I salary sacrifice my super out of my pre-tax income. That portion will be taxed at around 25% when I get there.

Otherwise I can pay post tax, and pay no tax (but on a smaller amount) when I withdraw.

The "employer's contribution" (9% of my wage goes into super without me seeing it. It was a way of offering tax cuts years ago without pushing inflation) will be untaxed, as it was a tax cut deferred.
 
Somewhat similar to our 401K with matching and rules....bottom line is that some of these are pretty sweet. But you guys have some % mandatory, no? Here's it's optional, but you need to put some portion in to get the "matching" (%'s vary by company) - point being, people still don't do it! They are not taking free money. Mind boggling. I'm doing 20% savings. Company matching is 4.5% of my entire salary. (To get this 4.5%, you need only save 6%!)
 
Pablo,
Paul Keating promised some pretty impressive tax cuts years ago, which he gave us instead as superannuation contributions.

Everyone who earns over $450/month has 9% put into their super by the employer.

Most people put in 6% of their own. I'll be ramping up to 9% (11.something pre-tax) next year.
 
Quote:
Superannuation. Super company made 14.5% last year.


So with this scheme you can invest in anything you want, correct?

_____________________________________________________________

Back on topic, after yesterday, I'm thinking I must be up around 15% for the year. (I didn't run the numbers -I update my chart once a week now)
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Looks like I'm gonna have to work out what to do with a chunk of unexpected dough.

Announced today that the company I work for is going to be sold in the not too distant future. $50k "transfer payment" to go over to there, taxed at 40%.

What to do after Feds get $20k of it ?

Bank Interest is 6.75%, Interest taxed at 40%...nope.
Invest in stock, capital gains taxed at 30%. Dividends (unless franked) taxed at 40%.
Superannuation. Super company made 14.5% last year. Taxed at 15% at 60, or 0% at 65.

Think I've answered it.

Yikes, that's some high taxes Shannow. And I thought ours were high over here across the pond.
Is your 'Superannuation' set up to be similiar to (or a replacement for) our Social Security, where we get government monthly payments at retirement age?
 
Pablo,
it's an investment scheme in it's own. I can pick the risk ranking, from growth to cash (three steps), but that's about it.

FIL used to be a self employed businessman, and they had much more flexibility. His super fund owned the premesis, vehicles etc.
 
LoneRanger,
the productivity commission consistently argues that our taxes are too high.

On top of the income taxes, we've got a 10% GST on purchases (not raw foodstuffs, but everything else), 43c/litre fuel excises, and a whole load of other levies, excices and stamp duties.

Yep, this self funding thing is designed ultimately to replace the govt supplied pension.

I don't know what will ultimately happen.

Years ago, there were privately managed "pension funds", that my Grandparents paid into. They had too much money, and nowhere to invest, so the Govt swallowed them, arguing that they would "invest" the money into infrastructure today, and pay a pension later.

They did that for a few decades, and then decided that my generation could be self funded.

I've got no problem with that, but they are taxing as thought I'd be getting a pension.
 
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