*Investors Blog*

[Dave Hess]

Tesla cutting Model Y production in China 20% this month, not sure what that will mean for the stock today.
Seems like a bit of a slippery slope, sales and production jump early Nov followed by price cutting and now production cut.
I am not invested but do watch its behavior as I am kind of drawn to GM, thinking maybe it will be different this time after decades of the same old excuses.

I wonder how Tesla will do in 2023 with the recession right around the corner ?

 

[Dave Hess]

Crypto Lender BlockFi Follows FTX Into Bankruptcy

Cryptocurrency lender BlockFi filed for bankruptcy, making it the latest major digital assets company to fail since FTX, with which BlockFi is financially intertwined.

www.wsj.com

'I Won't Pay If You Don't Pay First': Angry BlockFi Customers Refuse To Settle Their Credit Card Debt After Bankrupt Firm Freezes Their Funds - Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Some 87,000 credit card customers were locked out of their cryptocurrency assets after crypto firm BlockFi filed for bankruptcy in one of the latest aftershocks from t

www.benzinga.com

Angry BlockFi Customers Refuse To Settle Their Credit Card Debt After Bankrupt Firm Freezes Their Funds​

 

[SC Maintenance]

'I Won't Pay If You Don't Pay First': Angry BlockFi Customers Refuse To Settle Their Credit Card Debt After Bankrupt Firm Freezes Their Funds - Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Some 87,000 credit card customers were locked out of their cryptocurrency assets after crypto firm BlockFi filed for bankruptcy in one of the latest aftershocks from t

www.benzinga.com

Angry BlockFi Customers Refuse To Settle Their Credit Card Debt After Bankrupt Firm Freezes Their Funds​

Entertaining, but it will end up on their credit report as late or no pay either way, if they care.

 

[alarmguy]

I wonder how Tesla will do in 2023 with the recession right around the corner ?

I guess as good as anyone else as far as next year, so far this year, at least in this state, legacy dealer lots are still empty, two of which are Toyota and Honda lots.
Its no secret in here I personally feel if I was a Tesla investor forget the recession next year, I would be way more worried about the onslaught of competition heading my way and 2023 things will really start ramping up. As it is already Tesla USA market share is down in the USA an easy 15% just from 2 years ago. (some put it at down 12% but more recent 15%) pretty significant.
With Uncle Sam coming to the rescue again in 2023 with new tax credits that will lessen the blow a little bit, I think?

BTW- Tesla/China is denying those reports in Bloomberg and the other media. Not sure if that means anything or not yet, guess we will have to wait to find out.

 

[Dave Hess]

I had a little bit of Nio stock and sold for a decent gain, I was thinking Nio might of been the next Tesla.

I very rarely buy foreign company stocks.

The next few years will see more competition for consumer’s EV dollars.

 

[Warstud]

Second Day,......down hard

 

[GON]

Second Day,......down hard

I am starting too read and saw (one) layoff if the higher paying west coast jobs. An article I read yesterday was in a Indian working an engineering position and was laid off by a major tech firm. He is on a work visa, so he stated he had four months to find a job or be deported. He is afraid to leave the USA to visit his sick parents in India for fear he won't be allowed to return to the USA.

I guy I work with wife was also laid off from a high paying tech firm. She didn't see it coming whatsoever.

Maybe this cycle of the high paying tech jobs has run its course. I don't think I would be overly cocky if I was in tech at the moment. But just my guess from reading articles.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Since were on the topic of employment - I looked up the number of employees for these tech companies and I was shocked at how many work there. I realize there big companies, but given they don't need to build a physical product in most cases, these are all professional jobs, not blue collar. What do all these people do? 87,000 at Meta, 160,000 at microsoft?

The other thing I was looking at was overall labor statistics. Both the fed with their non-farm payroll, and ADP both show more people are working now than in 2019 - in raw numbers. So if more people are actually on the books, why are we supposedly so short of labor? I believe we are short, so that means something is wrong with the employment numbers?

 

[PimTac]

The other thing I was looking at was overall labor statistics. Both the fed with their non-farm payroll, and ADP both show more people are working now than in 2019 - in raw numbers. So if more people are actually on the books, why are we supposedly so short of labor? I believe we are short, so that means something is wrong with the employment numbers?

A lot of people have just left the workforce. The Great Resignation as it’s called. Nothing really great about it but everything has to get some kind of tag these days.

This chart shows the trend. It’s not a new thing

Civilian labor force participation rate

www.bls.gov

 

[SC Maintenance]

A lot of people have just left the workforce. The Great Resignation as it’s called. Nothing really great about it but everything has to get some kind of tag these days.

This chart shows the trend. It’s not a new thing

Civilian labor force participation rate

www.bls.gov

I was just looking at raw numbers - not %.

fed number total non farm - 153.5M, previous high was 152.5 in 2019. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS

ADP number - Private Payroll - 122.1M, former high 121.5M https://adpemploymentreport.com/

So just a raw number of those supposedly working, not unemployment % or Participation rate, etc/

?

 

[ZeeOSix]

I realize there big companies, but given they don't need to build a physical product in most cases, these are all professional jobs, not blue collar. What do all these people do? 87,000 at Meta, 160,000 at microsoft?

Half of them sit around all day trying to figure out how to change how their software looks on people's computers so they have to constantly relearn how to operate it.

 

[Dave Hess]

“ What do all these people do? 87,000 at Meta, 160,000 at Microsoft? “


Some employees at any big company can have a ‘career’ of never ending telephone conferences, meetings, follow up meetings, follow up to the follow up meeting from 3 months ago, team meetings, metrics meeting, etc…., etc…..

People that are good at schmoozing can pretty much be invisible to the big boss and do the very bare minimum.

 

[Pablo]

“ What do all these people do? 87,000 at Meta, 160,000 at Microsoft? “


Some employees at any big company can have a ‘career’ of never ending telephone conferences, meetings, follow up meetings, follow up to the follow up meeting from 3 months ago, team meetings, metrics meeting, etc…., etc…..

People that are good at schmoozing can pretty much be invisible to the big boss and do the very bare minimum.

Laugh. But yes.

One MS employee I know skied or biked almost every DAY and drank at night (maybe not too heavily) - during the WFH days. Freaked out when called back for some % of the time. He/she was in no way productive.

 

[Dave Hess]

Carvana hit 52 week low today and under $4 share, back in Aug 2021 it was $360 share.

Talk of bankruptcy in the next few months.

 

[PWMDMD]

Since were on the topic of employment - I looked up the number of employees for these tech companies and I was shocked at how many work there. I realize there big companies, but given they don't need to build a physical product in most cases, these are all professional jobs, not blue collar. What do all these people do? 87,000 at Meta, 160,000 at microsoft?

The other thing I was looking at was overall labor statistics. Both the fed with their non-farm payroll, and ADP both show more people are working now than in 2019 - in raw numbers. So if more people are actually on the books, why are we supposedly so short of labor? I believe we are short, so that means something is wrong with the employment numbers?

I think we're seeing shifts between sectors where labor is really strong in one sector and weak in another. I think a lot of the sectors seeing weak employment are sectors that previously didn't have any issues and they tend to be service jobs and so the low employment is in our faces.

Labor stats are at least in part consistent with inflation stats - there is still too much spending and too much demand in the economy and that doesn't happen with significant unemployment.

 

[Warstud]

Today's pop failed...the trend is down

 

[SC Maintenance]

Today's pop failed...the trend is down

Trying to understand what your telling me. Is this because it ramped at open and has traded sideways since?

 

[Warstud]

Trying to understand what your telling me. Is this because it ramped at open and has traded sideways since?

Todays rally didn't fail as bad as I thought but were heading down now.

 

[Dave Hess]

Ws6,

Very nice.

Have some cash for unexpected buying opportunities.

Buffett’s Cash Pile Tops Record With $149.2 Billion On Hand

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. now has a record amount of money to put to work.

www.bloomberg.com

$149B cash on the sidelines….. ?

 

[alarmguy]

Carvana hit 52 week low today and under $4 share, back in Aug 2021 it was $360 share.
next few months.

I know not in the same ballpark, far from it as Tesla has earnings and massive growth... but every time I think its getting cheap its gets cheaper (now P/E 50) and a two year low.

I just cant help wonder what all the media promoters of TSLA have to say now, I am intrigued, catch a falling knife? Gosh TSLA has been sliced and diced by a massive amount over 50% loss just from March of this year, would seem like a safe bet but a I think a BIG wild card is the massive negative press that its getting now.
Twitter and a Class Action Lawsuit accusing Tesla of outright Fraud with their self driving claims. I think this is the more serious one as its coming at a time that the legacy companies are starting to turn out the same product at lower prices than Tesla and not caught up in this endless bad press.

Will it keep falling down to the more earthbound legacy automakers? I was tempted by GM (still am) and even more so now, then again with its low PE compared to Tesla I guess I consider much GM less risky... though to be honest and fair, GM down somewhere near 40% in the last year but its P/E is 6.

Have no idea why I am typing this, well, yeah, I do because I am looking to maybe switch out something in my Roth and GM was looking stable even though it still hasn't gone anywhere in 4 decades like Charle Brown with Lucy holding the football I think maybe this time might be different and if they dont screw it up maybe at the least it will be a safe conservative investment for a Roth.

Your market timing late last year was perfect but being I am in some big old conservative stocks I haven't been hurt, yeah, sure, would have been nice to jump out then jump back in maybe around April of this year (honestly haven't checked the exact month) But I am at a point in my life that I cant nor do I want to risk trying to time everything. FYI - think I mentioned before, around the time you got out I was telling my life maybe I should take profits and sit back a while but I didnt.

So I am just babbling away... wondering if its possible Tesla ends up in a death spiral, some would say that they already have, some people have paid up to around 400 a share and have to wait for a rebound or already got out. When I say death spiral I mean, for now, down to a legacy P/E ratio vs what some might still say is lofty at a PE of 50.
I mean we were at 100, who is to say we wont see 25?
Dont ask me, that is for sure!