*Investors Blog*

[JeffKeryk]

The best use of AI so far is the garbage recognition and sorting at SeaTac airport. Landfill - compost - recycle. And even then the plastics still need a human to ID.

No doubt NVDA sells lots of chips for digital video processing. How much of those are actually AI used, up to interpretation.

AI is in its infancy, as is Quantum Computing.
I suggest you consider the wealth of data we have and continue to compile.
Right now, we are data rich and information poor. AI will make us information rich. AI algorithms operate as human though process.

Technology accelerates the rate change. Is AI important? You grow or you go.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Uh huh.

That wheel keeps on turning.

My 401k flipped to a stable fund EOD today for the next month or two, I'm content preserving gains. What you describe as "working money" is just another word for taking risks and gambling.

I never said "working money". I said your money should work for you regardless of economic conditions.
Regarding my investment portfolio, I rarely change anything of note because I am diversified. Small adjustments are about it.
I have a team of advisors, the Schwab Wealth Advisory. Let's just say I am a long term investor and at this point it is less about growth than longevity.

I wish you luck in your investments.

 

[cptbarkey]

I never said "working money". I said your money should work for you regardless of economic conditions.
Regarding my investment portfolio, I rarely change anything of note because I am diversified. Small adjustments are about it.
I have a team of advisors, the Schwab Wealth Advisory. Let's just say I am a long term investor and at this point it is less about growth than longevity.

I wish you luck in your investments.

I think folks here appreciate the free advice you give. I am curious though, what do you invest in that is outside your comfort zone?

 

[JeffKeryk]

I think folks here appreciate the free advice you give. I am curious though, what do you invest in that is outside your comfort zone?

Unlike many wise contributors here, I am pretty sure I know very little about the entire investment world. I realize I only know a little. Sorta like brain surgery.
I don't do investing as a career so I rely on those who do.
So outside of stock options and grants from my working days, I employ the Schwab Wealth Advisory to help manage my investments.
There is also Silicon Valley Real estate.

Most of all, invest in yourself; education is for life. And invest in your friends and family. You might need them one day and if you don't your efforts will bring you happiness.

Respectfully, anyone who discounts the future AI and Quantum Computing tech importance is simply misinformed. I guarantee you every major company in the business world is concerned with it.
AI tech exists on its own, but it’s an extension of human thinking, via algorithms.
AI is advanced statistics. Advanced statistics, through computer power, generate many different outputs which then become predictions.
At its core, artificial intelligence is about the ability to use algorithms to define patterns. Once you recognize the patterns, you can eventually predict them. And once you can predict them, you can prescribe meaning.

We just went from information poor to information rich; ON AN IMMENSE SCALE.

 

[JHZR2]

Unlike many wise contributors here, I am pretty sure I know very little about the entire investment world. I realize I only know a little. Sorta like brain surgery.
I don't do investing as a career so I rely on those who do.
So outside of stock options and grants from my working days, I employ the Schwab Wealth Advisory to help manage my investments.
There is also Silicon Valley Real estate.

Most of all, invest in yourself; education is for life. And invest in your friends and family. You might need them one day and if you don't your efforts will bring you happiness.

Respectfully, anyone who discounts the future AI and Quantum Computing tech importance is simply misinformed. I guarantee you every major company in the business world is concerned with it.
AI tech exists on its own, but it’s an extension of human thinking, via algorithms.
AI is advanced statistics. Advanced statistics, through computer power, generate many different outputs which then become predictions.
At its core, artificial intelligence is about the ability to use algorithms to define patterns. Once you recognize the patterns, you can eventually predict them. And once you can predict them, you can prescribe meaning.

We just went from information poor to information rich; ON AN IMMENSE SCALE.

I agree with you except for the past tense. “We just went”. No we didn’t. We’re not there yet. Unless you’re a salesperson.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I agree with you except for the past tense. “We just went”. No we didn’t. We’re not there yet. Unless you’re a salesperson.

No, I'm not trying to sell anyone anything. I am a Computer Scientist. I believe I've said AI is in its infancy.
But having said that, perhaps check out a few examples of AI today. I leave it to each other to further their own depth of understanding, if they happen to be interested and choose to do so.
I guarantee you AI is affecting our lives today. Its growth (abilities and importance) will only accelerate.

Interestingly:

• 1997: Deep Blue (developed by IBM) beat the world chess champion, Gary Kasparov, in a highly-publicized match, becoming the first program to beat a human chess champion.
• 1997: Windows released a speech recognition software (developed by Dragon Systems).
• 2000: Professor Cynthia Breazeal developed the first robot that could simulate human emotions with its face,which included eyes, eyebrows, ears, and a mouth. It was called Kismet.
• 2002: The first Roomba was released.
• 2003: Nasa landed two rovers onto Mars (Spirit and Opportunity) and they navigated the surface of the planet without human intervention.
• 2006: Companies such as Twitter, Facebook, and Netflix started utilizing AI as a part of their advertising and user experience (UX) algorithms.
• 2010: Microsoft launched the Xbox 360 Kinect, the first gaming hardware designed to track body movement and translate it into gaming directions.
• 2011: An NLP computer programmed to answer questions named Watson (created by IBM) won Jeopardy against two former champions in a televised game.
• 2011: Apple released Siri, the first popular virtual assistant.

All good @JHZR2

 

[alarmguy]

Feels like another 2000 dot com bubble getting bigger and bigger.

You know, I agree with many comments on over hyped AI talk BUT NVDA?
Is it really over hyped? It’s growing profits by leaps and bounds.

Is the P/E at 60 ish really that outrageous?
I’m SERIOUSLY thinking about jumping in on this one. I think their their growth will be unstoppable?
Profits unstoppable?

I watched this stock loosely since maybe some in here were born *LOL*
From riches to rags back to riches.

Please give me some valid points to not jump in big next week.

 

[Dave Hess]

I’m saying to proceed with caution.

The last 4 years have been amazing and it can’t last forever.

I believe A.I. will definitely change lots of things in the future.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I am not giving advice, but I looked at the technicals and they looked to me a lot like they did after the last earnings report. I am not an analyst or technician so I could be easily wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a lot of profit taking in the next weeks. The pro's will want to lock in the 10% gain they made last week especially with an election coming. Take that for the value you paid for it

As for long term who knows. Right now there earnings growth is through the roof but look at who is buying - Amazon, Google, people building data centers near DC. If they find actual applications for this tech they can monetize then I suppose it can continue. But remember nothing is guaranteed. In 1999 Lucent and Intel had the best tech also but ran out of customers.

 

[JeffKeryk]

A critical way to look at a company is by its customer list. Powerful customers that are heavily invested (dependent) in a technology will help them to succeed with future development. In high tech, think of a product as the hand-in-glove analogy. Vertical integration is too hard and expensive.

Look at NVIDIA's suppliers as well. NVIDIA depends on TSMC and Lam Research, as you go up the supply chain.

 

[Dave Hess]

JHZR2,

Were you trading back in the dot com bubble era of craziness ?

 

[zzyzzx]

Since being switched to Schwab, I have been getting paper confirmations, despite reviewing my paperless settings and all and already seeing that it's set to paperless, more than once at this point. How do I make it stop?

 

[PWMDMD]

I never said "working money". I said your money should work for you regardless of economic conditions.
Regarding my investment portfolio, I rarely change anything of note because I am diversified. Small adjustments are about it.
I have a team of advisors, the Schwab Wealth Advisory. Let's just say I am a long term investor and at this point it is less about growth than longevity.

I belong to an "investment group" of mostly dentists in FB. Let's just say it's the blind leading the dumb and everyone there thinks they are a mastermind who can outsmart the market and the 100 years of data that says they can't beat the market. Their rationale is either based on technical analysis and their charts which has been shown to not beat the market long-term or even better they try and glean some insight from what Buffet is doing right now or some other big investor. Buffett is sitting on cash so I'm sitting on cash. It never occurs to them that Warren is in a totally different place as far as wealth, life, age, goals, etc. They are like gamblers who once had a payout and they have been chasing that rush ever since. They also spend A LOT of time on their next move and/or constantly monitoring the market throughout the day. They pontificate about the course of the economy and go down crazy rabbit holes about where we are and where we are going.

My index funds aren't sexy but they've treated me very well and they take up very little time. If the economy goes up, I stay the course. If the economy goes down, I stay the course. It really couldn't be easier.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I belong to an "investment group" of mostly dentists in FB. Let's just say it's the blind leading the dumb and everyone there thinks they are a mastermind who can outsmart the market and the 100 years of data that says they can't beat the market. Their rationale is either based on technical analysis and their charts which has been shown to not beat the market long-term or even better they try and glean some insight from what Buffet is doing right now or some other big investor. Buffett is sitting on cash so I'm sitting on cash. It never occurs to them that Warren is in a totally different place as far as wealth, life, age, goals, etc. They are like gamblers who once had a payout and they have been chasing that rush ever since. They also spend A LOT of time on their next move and/or constantly monitoring the market throughout the day. They pontificate about the course of the economy and go down crazy rabbit holes about where we are and where we are going.

My index funds aren't sexy but they've treated me very well and they take up very little time. If the economy goes up, I stay the course. If the economy goes down, I stay the course. It really couldn't be easier.

Gotta love human nature...
Investing is a journey; a long journey so get started! Time in the market counts, as they say. In my case, I got lucky living in Silicon Valley and being at a remarkable company that offered me opportunity. Now, I did take advantage of that opportunity and was rewarded. But minus all the options and grants, the time in the market maximizing my contributions has worked out well.
My strategy is, I never wanna be homeless again. Never. So I worked to get and pay off a property. If all else goes to pot, I have a roof over my head, and my recurring costs are dirt low due to solar project and other long term home investments.

It's a simple solution for complicated minds...

 

[RAVL]

Since being switched to Schwab, I have been getting paper confirmations, despite reviewing my paperless settings and all and already seeing that it's set to paperless, more than once at this point. How do I make it stop?

I would respectfully suggest you reconsider. In the admittedly unlikely event of a hack, there could be activity in your account and they could also interrupt or redirect the email flow. If you get the paper statement only to confirm that there is no unusual activity, it’s worth it to get the paper system. Sure paper can be hijacked as well but multiple methods of statement deliver gives you some redundancy against fraud and theft.

 

[zzyzzx]

I would respectfully suggest you reconsider. In the admittedly unlikely event of a hack, there could be activity in your account and they could also interrupt or redirect the email flow. If you get the paper statement only to confirm that there is no unusual activity, it’s worth it to get the paper system. Sure paper can be hijacked as well but multiple methods of statement deliver gives you some redundancy against fraud and theft.

I'm more concerned with misdelivered mail than an email getting hijacked.

 

[Hermann]

I moved money from cash in my 401K to the S&P 500 index last week. Sold my NVDA and took profits of $500 on 4 shares. Been conservative this fiscal year, (Mine starts Oct.1) but up about 29% in my 401K S&P account. Wish the cash portion would do better than 3.00% but that is pretty much guaranteed unless Principal goes under. Looking for something to invest my Merrill money in.

 

[Hermann]

Economy is slowing, my indicators say so.

If my Subscribe and Save items at Amazon are a indication, 6 of 8 have gone down to the lowest price I have paid in several years. Almost pre pandemic

 

[zzyzzx]

If my Subscribe and Save items at Amazon are a indication, 6 of 8 have gone down to the lowest price I have paid in several years. Almost pre pandemic

2L soda (store brand) back to $1/bottle when on sale.

 

[Dave Hess]

My index funds aren't sexy but they've treated me very well and they take up very little time. If the economy goes up, I stay the course. If the economy goes down, I stay the course. It really couldn't be easier.

I currently have a mix of these Vanguard ETFs in my Vanguard portfolio.

VGT - technology
MGK - mega cap growth
VUG - large cap growth
VOO - S&P 500
10% cash for momentum trades.

A very simple game plan that works very well for me.