*Investors Blog*

[mjk1967]

The read I get is they are so far ahead of the competition, it is like watching a 100 meter dash...NVDA is Usain Bolt, the competition are NCAA D3 runners.
The ramp up time is years, by the time the margins close, I'll have moved on.

I am not a techie, but their product line is so vastly superior to what is out there, it's amazing.

 

[demarpaint]

The read I get is they are so far ahead of the competition, it is like watching a 100 meter dash...NVDA is Usain Bolt, the competition are NCAA D3 runners.
The ramp up time is years, by the time the margins close, I'll have moved on.

I am not a techie, but their product line is so vastly superior to what is out there, it's amazing.

That sounds about right, I'm loving NVDA today.

 

[JHZR2]

I would compare the companies you listed vs NVIDIA as, "How many AI Supercomputers did the other companies make?"
NVIDIA solutions for supercomputing are leading the pack for AI, the next world changing technology.
NVIDIA AI Supercomputers give researchers the power they need to simulate and predict our world.

Artificial Intelligence offers the promise of incredibly fast answers to questions based on "the rise of data". No group of people can compare. Add deep learning and natural language interface...
Given that, solution cost to predictions, product development and new discoveries becomes minimal and accelerates all of it.

Here is an example from my career:
One of the most valuable and confidential things a company owns and works on is their corporate forecast. If you develop it or are privy to it you are a company insider. Of course, by definition, the forecast is wrong. The company that forecasts better will win.
I worked for many years developing the world wide forecast application; the business need for information is forever changing. Analytics on data, like linear regression, requires knowledgeable development on numerous concentrations: database design and programming, front end programming and statistics. And you had better be ready for the next set of questions; they will be far harder the the last. And you had better be right and explain your process, assumptions and results.

No doubt NVDA has good tech, good pipeline, great company.

But worth more than all the companies in Germany… Germany, combined?

AI is a buzzword. Not to downplay it, but it’s a buzzword. Data analytics, deep learning. Sure, all have promise. Not denying any of it. As someone who not only resources, but executes cutting edge research, sorry, AI isn’t truly there for most things. So like we talk about for other tech, it’s the “paper reactor”.

But if NVDA went away tomorrow, folks would still be working on the same buzzwords, and the next tech entity with a good idea would be coming in behind.

You really want to fathom and wager what would happen if these German companies went away tomorrow? I can tell you one thing, NVDA wouldn’t be able to execute. Nor would countless other industries. And that’s just Germany, and German industry and tech…

And I get it that tangible utility and products and all isn’t how we value businesses… but still..

So, sorry, but it’s absurd.

 

[zzyzzx]

We have never run deficits this high in peace time as a percentage of GDP. The Fed balance sheet was a whopping $9T. They have taken it down a bit and now there crying about it being too restrictive.

The wealth gap in America has never been this wide. We have essentially returned to imperialist Europe. Trickle down clearly doesn't work.

It trickles down to Mexico, China, India, etc.

 

[Astro14]

No doubt NVDA has good tech, good pipeline, great company.

But worth more than all the companies in Germany… Germany, combined?

AI is a buzzword. Not to downplay it, but it’s a buzzword. Data analytics, deep learning. Sure, all have promise. Not denying any of it. As someone who not only resources, but executes cutting edge research, sorry, AI isn’t truly there for most things. So like we talk about for other tech, it’s the “paper reactor”.

But if NVDA went away tomorrow, folks would still be working on the same buzzwords, and the next tech entity with a good idea would be coming in behind.

You really want to fathom and wager what would happen if these German companies went away tomorrow? I can tell you one thing, NVDA wouldn’t be able to execute. Nor would countless other industries. And that’s just Germany, and German industry and tech…

And I get it that tangible utility and products and all isn’t how we value businesses… but still..

So, sorry, but it’s absurd.

I agree that the valuation of the company is absurd. However, it is not just “AI“. It is the demand for superior processing driven by the demand for AI that drives the demand for Nvidia products. They’re not just making chips for gamers anymore. Look, we own this stock. Have done well since buying it only a few months ago, and I will watch its valuation and price.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Artificial Intelligence offers the promise of incredibly fast answers to questions based on "the rise of data". No group of people can compare.

On a side note - Wonder what AI's answer to a thick vs thin tribology question or what's the best oil filter to use would be? I can see the microchips smoking and exploding. Not sure I'm ready for AI and Sky Net. Making money off of investing in it might be the best part of it all.

 

[JeffKeryk]

No doubt NVDA has good tech, good pipeline, great company.

But worth more than all the companies in Germany… Germany, combined?

AI is a buzzword. Not to downplay it, but it’s a buzzword. Data analytics, deep learning. Sure, all have promise. Not denying any of it. As someone who not only resources, but executes cutting edge research, sorry, AI isn’t truly there for most things. So like we talk about for other tech, it’s the “paper reactor”.

But if NVDA went away tomorrow, folks would still be working on the same buzzwords, and the next tech entity with a good idea would be coming in behind.

You really want to fathom and wager what would happen if these German companies went away tomorrow? I can tell you one thing, NVDA wouldn’t be able to execute. Nor would countless other industries. And that’s just Germany, and German industry and tech…

And I get it that tangible utility and products and all isn’t how we value businesses… but still..

So, sorry, but it’s absurd.

Agree and disagree...
AI is far more than a buzzword, it is a game changer; disruptive and highly transformational.
Yes, it is in its infancy. It's easy to find AI generated results that are wrong. The forward looking part of the market is betting on future products, not NVIDIA'S, or anyone's, current AI technology.

Comparing a leading high tech company to a legacy company is apples to oranges. The oranges may be a safer bet, but if you get the right apple, the sky's the limit.

I'm not sure anyone is saying the German companies are going away... But all companies either reinvent themselves or go away over time. Product lifecycles contain start and end...
Look at my old company, Lam Research. Lam makes the highest density deposition capital equipment in the industry. LRCX stock is up almost 30% YTD, 67% YOY thanks to AI.

Are the numbers absurd? Is tech a roller coaster? Sure. Are the numbers real? Yes.
NVIDIA - I am AI
I see so many naysayers; I embrace tech because it is coming whether I like it or not. I am utterly jealous of the computer science tools available today. We are witnessing the dawn of the next chapter of automaton. Incredible stuff going on.

 

[JHZR2]

Agree and disagree...
AI is far more than a buzzword, it is a game changer; disruptive and highly transformational.
Yes, it is in its infancy. It's easy to find AI generated results that are wrong. The forward looking part of the market is betting on future products, not NVIDIA'S, or anyone's, current AI technology.

My whole career I’ve been involved in seeing, investing in, pursuing, and maturing “game changer” tech. Some pans out. Some doesn’t. And AI absolutely gets used as a buzzword, with most real instantiations in complex areas still leaving much to be desired. Doesn’t mean it won’t get there, at a big cost.

Comparing a leading high tech company to a legacy company is apples to oranges. The oranges may be a safer bet, but if you get the right apple, the sky's the limit.

No.. we are comparing the value of ONE company, to the value of the entirety of the ENTIRE German stock market. All of its industries, in their entirety. And Germany isn’t big, but they’re no slouch.

So the silliness of one tech company being worth more is case-in-point.



It’s great to embrace tech. It’s absurd to value it in excess of the entirety of industry of a nation that actually produces things, without which the world would stop working. Actually.

 

[JeffKeryk]

My whole career I’ve been involved in seeing, investing in, pursuing, and maturing “game changer” tech. Some pans out. Some doesn’t. And AI absolutely gets used as a buzzword, with most real instantiations in complex areas still leaving much to be desired. Doesn’t mean it won’t get there, at a big cost.


No.. we are comparing the value of ONE company, to the value of the entirety of the ENTIRE German stock market. All of its industries, in their entirety. And Germany isn’t big, but they’re no slouch.

So the silliness of one tech company being worth more is case-in-point.



It’s great to embrace tech. It’s absurd to value it in excess of the entirety of industry of a nation that actually produces things, without which the world would stop working. Actually.

I certainly don't doubt your knowledge, abilities and experience; sorry if it sounded that way.
I see your points, but my point is, NVIDIA AI is not Apple Siri AI, it is a game changer.
From an MIT article:
Executives expect generative AI to disrupt industries across economies. Overall, six out of 10 respondents agree that “generative AI technology will substantially disrupt our industry over the next five years.” Respondents that foresee disruption exceed those that do not across every industry.

The market appears to be betting on this emerging tech.
You are spot on; cost will be high. Bet on overruns. Those who implement smaller systems quickly and build from there will control costs better, gain benefit and learn how AI can be best used in their specific business.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[cptbarkey]

Alot of irrational exuberance comments here tells me its time to buckle down, new car sales flat, many reddit threads complaining of tech layoffs. Good luck folks.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Alot of irrational exuberance comments here tells me its time to buckle down, new car sales flat, many reddit threads complaining of tech layoffs. Good luck folks.

I was taught to make your money work for you regardless of economic and market conditions.

 

[Dave Hess]

I was taught to make your money work for you regardless of economic and market conditions.

Very few people could understand that concept.

 

[Dave Hess]

Alot of irrational exuberance comments here tells me its time to buckle down, new car sales flat, many reddit threads complaining of tech layoffs. Good luck folks.

Feels like another 2000 dot com bubble getting bigger and bigger.

 

[cptbarkey]

Feels like another 2000 dot com bubble getting bigger and bigger.

Extend and pretend can only go so far. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/losses-pile-top-rated-bonds-110000825.html

 

[JeffKeryk]

I've been reading posts here for the past couple of years predicting recession, doom, etc.
Y'all live in a different world than I do. We are emerging into a new era in business fostered by AI and Quantum Computing.
The evidence is IoT, Industry 4.0 and 5.0.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Feels like another 2000 dot com bubble getting bigger and bigger.

The dot com crash was due to the stock price run up of start ups with unproven products.

 

[Dave Hess]

The dot com crash was due to the stock price run up of start ups with unproven products.

Cisco had proven products.

Look back at the exponential rise of their stock price.

Yes, there were some trash companies back then.

 

[Dave Hess]

Extend and pretend can only go so far. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/losses-pile-top-rated-bonds-110000825.html

Yep. I read that and know the timer is ticking….

 

[Pablo]

The best use of AI so far is the garbage recognition and sorting at SeaTac airport. Landfill - compost - recycle. And even then the plastics still need a human to ID.

No doubt NVDA sells lots of chips for digital video processing. How much of those are actually AI used, up to interpretation.

 

[cptbarkey]

Y'all live in a different world than I do.

Uh huh.

The dot com crash was due to the stock price run up of start ups with unproven products.

That wheel keeps on turning.

My 401k flipped to a stable fund EOD today for the next month or two, I'm content preserving gains. What you describe as "working money" is just another word for taking risks and gambling.