Investing Strategies. What is your move?

alarmguy said:
I gave you the link and post it one last time here. It was not $3000.
These are your words = "So people all went out and bought new cars and homes because they got $3000 over a 2 year period? - lol."
Click to expand...
$3000 per person ... guess you didn't understand that from the get-go, so now you do and time to drop that strawman. Still doesn't change the fact that the majority of people getting that money didn't go "blow it" on non-essential items to keep living in a quasi-normal way - did you read that link? What do you think would have happened if none of that stimulus money ever happened? How many businesses would have vaporized and then leave people not even having a job to go to for the people that still wanted to work? That still happened to some degree, but also a lot of people retired early or didn't go back to work for various reasons, and it wasn't because they were "filthy rich" from stimulus money.

What impact do you think there would have been if 25-50% of businesses disappeared forever? You think maybe that would have caused inflation because the supply chain would have been impacted for way more and take way longer to recover than it actually was? You keep claiming that the stimulus money was the main cause of inflation ... I'm saying it's not the main cause. It might have had some impact, but it was not the main cause. The main cause demand outpaced supply as Covid disappeared and people started getting back to normal, and the supply chain was still trying to recover from the last 2 years. That supply chain recovery could have been much worse if some of those companies were not keep going with stimulus money. Plus, a lot of people didn't go back to work for whatever reasons (why unenployment is low - more jobs than people who want them), so that doesn't help get the supply chain moving again either like it should be.

Markets Economy Articles for Advisors - The Advisor Advocate

A collection of the latest economy and market news for financial professionals. Gain insights from our commentary to help grow clients' portfolios.
blog.nationwidefinancial.com blog.nationwidefinancial.com
 
Last edited:
Also, as people did start going back to work they were demanding higher pay, etc ... and some of that was passed on with higher prices/inflation. LOTS of factors involved, but the the $3000 per person stimulus money over a 2 year period was not the main cause/driver of this inflation.

www.bls.gov

What caused inflation to spike after 2020? : Monthly Labor Review: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Researchers examine why inflation rose during the COVID-19 pandemic.
www.bls.gov www.bls.gov

"As the labor market tightened during 2021 and 2022, core inflation rose as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment increased. This ratio is used to measure wage pressures that then pass through to the prices for goods and services. As workers bargain for better pay, firms begin to increase prices. So, from this research, the authors find that three main components explain the rise in inflation since 2020: volatility of energy prices, backlogs of work orders for goods and service caused by supply chain issues due to COVID-19, and price changes in the auto-related industries."

Underlined part ... translation: Companies "riding the inflation train" to recoup lost income during lock downs and lost product sale, even if making their products aren't costing them the same percentage increase as they increase the price to consumers. High inflation also brings out the greedy for a "money grab" as long as they can do it. Jumping on the inflation train without people complaining makes companies more profitable.

1680290663542.png
 
Last edited:
ZeeOSix said:
Also, as people did start going back to work they were demanding higher pay, etc ... and some of that was passed on with higher prices/inflation. LOTS of factors involved, but the the $3000 per person stimulus money over a 2 year period was not the main cause/driver of this inflation.

www.bls.gov

What caused inflation to spike after 2020? : Monthly Labor Review: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Researchers examine why inflation rose during the COVID-19 pandemic.
www.bls.gov www.bls.gov

"As the labor market tightened during 2021 and 2022, core inflation rose as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment increased. This ratio is used to measure wage pressures that then pass through to the prices for goods and services. As workers bargain for better pay, firms begin to increase prices. So, from this research, the authors find that three main components explain the rise in inflation since 2020: volatility of energy prices, backlogs of work orders for goods and service caused by supply chain issues due to COVID-19, and price changes in the auto-related industries."

Underlined part ... translation: Companies "riding the inflation train" to recoup lost income during lock downs and lost product sale, even if making their products aren't costing them the same increase as they increased the price to consumers. High inflation also brings out the greedy for a "money grab" as long as they can do it.

View attachment 147784
Click to expand...


The government will never say that they have a huge hand in the inflation we have now.
 
PimTac said:
The government will never say that they have a huge hand in the inflation we have now.
Click to expand...
They have a hand in it, but where's the proof it's "huge" and the main factor? The economy is a gigantic world wide machine now with 1000s of intermeshing gears - including internationally, world wide factors. But the basis of all inflation is the relationship between supply and demand. Many experts say the stimulus money was not the main reason for this inflation. What would have happened with the USA economy if there was zero economic stimulus during the pandemic?
 
Last edited:
ZeeOSix said:
They have a hand in it, but where's the proof it's "huge" and the main factor? The economy is a gigantic world wide machine now with 1000s of intermeshing gears - including internationally, world wide factors. But the basis of all inflation is the relationship between supply and demand. Many experts say the stimulus money was not the main reason for this inflation. What would have happened with the USA economy if there was zero economic stimulus during the pandemic?
Click to expand...


This does not include the 🦠 spending. Money is being spent at an astronomical rate. That has to stop.
 
ZeeOSix said:
$3000 per person ... guess you didn't understand that from the get-go, so now you do and time to drop that strawman. Still doesn't change the fact that the majority of people getting that money didn't go "blow it" on non-essential items to keep living in a quasi-normal way - did you read that link? What do you think would have happened if none of that stimulus money ever happened? How many businesses would have vaporized and then leave people not even having a job to go to for the people that still wanted to work? That still happened to some degree, but also a lot of people retired early or didn't go back to work for various reasons, and it wasn't because they were "filthy rich" from stimulus money.

What impact do you think there would have been if 25-50% of businesses disappeared forever? You think maybe that would have caused inflation because the supply chain would have been impacted for way more and take way longer to recover than it actually was? You keep claiming that the stimulus money was the main cause of inflation ... I'm saying it's not the main cause. It might have had some impact, but it was not the main cause. The main cause demand outpaced supply as Covid disappeared and people started getting back to normal, and the supply chain was still trying to recover from the last 2 years. That supply chain recovery could have been much worse if some of those companies were not keep going with stimulus money. Plus, a lot of people didn't go back to work for whatever reasons (why unenployment is low - more jobs than people who want them), so that doesn't help get the supply chain moving again either like it should be.

Markets Economy Articles for Advisors - The Advisor Advocate

A collection of the latest economy and market news for financial professionals. Gain insights from our commentary to help grow clients' portfolios.
blog.nationwidefinancial.com blog.nationwidefinancial.com
Click to expand...
We will never agree. You don’t seem to be able to understand the fact that when government prints trillions of dollars out of thin air and injects it into the economy that the result will be inflation down the road.
I did not say that Americans would not have suffered if they did not inject that money. You can’t go through life borrowing money $32 trillion worth so far making life easy for individuals.
So yes, people would’ve suffered. Hello.?
That is life. Since 20 to 50% of businesses, as you say, did not disappear. And jobs did not vaporize. We are paying the price now.
I give up this is a pointless conversation, obviously.
To argue that massive government borrowing and spending does not significantly add to inflation is Ludacris.
Open up your history book and look at every country that went down that path in the results of that
 
alarmguy said:
We will never agree. You don’t seem to be able to understand the fact that when government prints trillions of dollars out of thin air any checks it into the economy that the result will be inflation down the road.
Click to expand...
I never said it didn't have an impact - go read it again. What I'm saying is your claim that the $3000/person stimulus money over 2 years time is NOT the main reason for this inflation like you believe - the main reason was a big discrepancy between supply and demand when people started living "normal" again once Covid went to low level. And the workforce was not back to normal levels either that produced the supply chains to react sufficiently to that quick spike in demand. I thought you were going to stop commenting on this like 10 posts ago, lol. ;)
 
alarmguy said:
I did not say that Americans would not have suffered if they did not inject that money. You can’t go through life borrowing money $32 trillion worth so far making life easy for individuals.
So yes, people would’ve suffered. Hello.?
That is life. Since 20 to 50% of businesses, as you say, did not disappear. And jobs did not vaporize. We are paying the price now.
Click to expand...
And what do you think would have been the outcome and where would the economy be today if there was zero economic stimulus money during the pandemic?
 
Arm chair economists are funny. We are a market based economy, yet people blame the gvt for economic conditions.
You can't have it both ways, folks.
The gvt's tool to control inflation is the Fed's rate; a poor tool at best.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Arm chair economists are funny. We are a market based economy, yet people blame the gvt for economic conditions.
You can't have it both ways, folks.
The gvt's tool to control inflation is the Fed's rate; a poor tool at best.
Click to expand...

Do you think JP will cut rates before the year is over ?
 
Dave Hess said:
Do you think JP will cut rates before the year is over ?
Click to expand...
Yes; slightly. The Banking fiasco dictates it. Banking system collapse is far worse than today's inflation because the world runs on credit.
That's my guess.

We need to return to regulation to save our bacon. Not a fix, but a safer envirornment.
 
The oil production cuts by OPEC are having their early effect as prices jump.

Meanwhile I listened to a radio show on Saturday that talked about this lopsided market. Market breadth is very weak here. The SP500 is being influenced by just a handful of stocks. Also, some interesting talk about hotel real estate and how that might affect the commercial real estate markets going forward. The big chains have a ton of properties and not all of them are profitable. Consolidation has made a lot of properties duplicative.

And finally, the first news this morning says that UBS is planning huge layoffs after the Credit Suisse buyout. Up to 11,000 alone in Switzerland.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Arm chair economists are funny. We are a market based economy, yet people blame the gvt for economic conditions.
You can't have it both ways, folks.
The gvt's tool to control inflation is the Fed's rate; a poor tool at best.
Click to expand...
You need to watch what the Federal Reserve does - you may call what we have a "market based economy" but it's the Fed that sets the tone in the market.
 
It's pretty simple.

Inflation as we are told is not caused only by low market rates.
Jacking rates to control inflation, therefor is not that great of a tool.
FED over jacked rates. Teetering the weak fake economy.

Now this does not mean we do or didn't have real inflation. Caused by hampers on the supply side, consumer shifts and reckless government spending and debt

This makes investors nervous. My metals and 5% CDs and muni-bonds are doing just fine.

Ever since I started stashing Tupelo honey, I have become diabetic and my liver is fatty and nearly shut down.
Is this not an analogy of the USA?
 
Lots of businesses will simply walk away from commercial properties known as strategic default. They have the cash to pay but won’t.

www.bloomberg.com

Pimco-Owned Office Landlord Defaults on $1.7 Billion Mortgage

The office properties owned by Pimco’s Columbia Property Trust range from New York to San Francisco.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

www.bloomberg.com

Blackstone Defaults on Nordic CMBS as Property Values Wobble

Blackstone Inc. defaulted on a €531 million ($562 million) bond backed by a portfolio of Finnish offices and stores as rising interest rates hit European property values.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Brons2
School me on foreign property ownership, from a USA perspective
Replies
13
Views
1K
cptbarkey
OVERKILL
Nothing is cheaper than mine to mouth coal
Replies
17
Views
1K
OVERKILL
The Critic
  • Locked
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Collapses
20 21 22
Replies
424
Views
16K
Astro14
buster
Europe has fallen behind America and the gap is growing
11 12 13
Replies
257
Views
10K
CanAmAndMore
D
GM 2020 Silverado HD 6.6 Gas - Bad Transmission
2 3
Replies
53
Views
3K
clinebarger
Back
Top