Both of us have seen this movie before. It’s Different This Time. This has played out countless times with the same result. Tech stocks will soar to the moon, until they didn’t. Same with housing values. And of course there was the tulip boom way back when.
Investing Strategies. What is your move?
- Thread starter PimTac
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Both of us have seen this movie before. It’s Different This Time. This has played out countless times with the same result. Tech stocks will soar to the moon, until they didn’t. Same with housing values. And of course there was the tulip boom way back when.
I had not heard that one but it makes me want to buy it more. Supply chains are getting worse, not better. If they have capacity it will help them in the end. Those waiting for crap from Asia will be waiting a long time - De- globalization is in full swing if your paying attention.
I'll look for it, it was on the Apple Stock app, so many negative stories now that I will see if I can sift through it and find which one. Im sure you heard about the hiring freeze and coming layoffs? Also doubling the discounts on Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.
Fortune has a ****ing (Im surprised the word dam____ was censored) story about a bear who has been wrong almost since the day Tesla was public, the things is, these people are now the headlines. Im not in anyway saying this particular person is correct, I am saying the media has turned against Tesla and a danger for a big flying, high P/E stock. Now let's not flame me for the current price if it goes up from here. I was warning about this 6 months or more ago. When it was $300 a share (and at times a P/E of around 90) and people thought is was a good buy, then $250 I would get flamed for months.
What do I know, maybe now at $125 it is a good price P/E of 38 instead of 90. I think it might be but others thought at $250 it was a good price .
So the magic question is when does the life stop falling?
REPEAT - I am not endorsing the story below, it's jsut one of dozens of negative ones right now in the headlines. I do agree with one statement that I repeated for a long time. "Its just a car company" that is all it is and their a many car companies in the world selling at the time for single digit P/Es while Tesla was close to triple digit P/Es
“It’s just a car company: 95% of revenues come from selling cars, 5% from an energy division that loses money,” Johnson told CNBC on Thursday. “They’re just a car company that has built too much capacity that they can’t sell.”
Tesla’s biggest bear says the company has demand problems and its stock could sink another 80%—but bulls argue he’s missing the growth story — FORTUNE
“They’re just a car company that has built too much capacity that they can’t sell," GLJ Research head Gordon Johnson said of Tesla this week.
stocks.apple.com
Ps, I have been paying attention, that is why I didnt buy Tesla at $250 or $300 after it came down from $400, who knows maybe at $125 its a fair price, but so many unknowns, like others posted, emotional responses in a stock that lacks a lot of institutional investors.
What can be next? a Board vote to see if Musk will be booted out of Tesla as CEO? That at this point may make the stock climb.
Ohhhh ... and let's not forget you got that Senator Elizabeth Warren (no politics) looking for an investigation of the TESLA board as shareholders are crying for the ouster of Musk
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A couple of interesting articles on that.
U.S. Imports Decline Accelerates in November, Led By 'Staggering' Drop for West Coast Ports -Report
Imports through the top ten container ports in the U.S. marked the largest overall monthly decline since the financial crisis and likely the largest single month contraction ever, according to...
gcaptain.com
Container Shipping's Idled Fleet Set to Soar Next Year
By Mike Wackett (The Loadstar) – Just 12 months ago, the 2009-built 4,253 teu Synergy Oakland was preparing to commence a two-month charter with Hapag-Lloyd at a rate of $160,000 a day. Incredible...
gcaptain.com
^^^^
I dont know the answer on this but I think I know, yet only a guess. In the last 4 decades did the Fed ever successfully institute a "soft landing" ?
I dont know the answer on this but I think I know, yet only a guess. In the last 4 decades did the Fed ever successfully institute a "soft landing" ?
Please tell me what authority ANY senator has to essentially threaten a board of a privately held company. Its Tortious interference, although I am certain Senators have immunity even if someone had the stones to do something about it.
Yeah, we cant talk politics and you should know me by now my position.
With that said, I think we can mention once you have politicians jumping up and down for attention and the vast amount of media covering the disaster taking place at Tesla and their now arch enemy Musk who just bought Twitter. They can do anything.
One other thing, I am sure just a slip up from you. Tesla is a publicly traded company, not private which gives them a full range of options to grandstand for the "public good"
(ps so I cant be blamed for any politics Ill refrain from anymore posts on this even though its part of the news)
I haven't seen any news of financial shenanigans - have you? All the headlines is Elon is distracted and demand is down, and shareholders are disgruntled. So - on the shareholder side they either bought at $20 and its still at $130 two years later, or they bought at $400 and expected a 100:1 P/E to hold for a car manufacturer, I don't feel too bad for either.
Might be getting closer to — 'Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful' - Warren Buffet
A Senator has implied that Musk may have used Tesla assets/funds for use in Twitter. That is a powerful accusation if one wants to start an investigation. I would assume Musk is smart enough to have covered himself. But like I say anyone can be accused of anything.
I do remember as public knowledge someone or someones from Tesla working on projects at Twitter. I hope Musk got his ducks in order when that was done and those employees were not taken away from their duties at Tesla and sure as heck better have been off the Tesla payroll for that time.
Im just stating stuff, I have no position on it other to analyze what lights the fuse for investigations IF they take place.
I wouldnt be surprised if shareholder lawsuits and/or class action lawsuits are already being prepared.
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This happens all the time.
Here house members are threatening asset managers in private financial firms because they don't like their policies on climate.
GOP plans to punish ‘woke’ Wall Street
GOP lawmakers are singling out major asset managers as likely targets because of climate investing practices they see as hostile to oil, gas and coal.
www.politico.com
Yeah, I think Dave Hess knows I was wishing I got out around when he did or maybe even if I pushed it into the spring would have been great.
As I posted above to 99 Saturn ... I owned WMT since 03/25/19 it was a nice run for me, for what I considered safety in a messed up market.
I think I got that perfect right through COVID and more.
I hope I didnt wait to long on it, as I still own it and the world is still just as messed up. I keep waiting for another leg up but maybe compared to AMZN it is. From the time I purchased WMT Amazon is back down to what it was in 03/25/19 and Walmart still up 40% (Rough numbers as they are all over the place)
I think you are right and here I am thinking WMT will be different again, in the 3 years it kind of has because they have been expanding well into other areas which right now, the big difference between AMZN and WMT is Groceries. Groceries last I knew is what is saving WMT right now, both in sales growth and profit. What's more, more middle class America are buying groceries there now.
I live in an area where WMT is sometimes looked down on, I have seen that changing over the years and I walk in there now and they are booked with employees all over the place going up and down the isles filling grocery orders. Im thinking maybe it's losing its "sigma" I ahve to say though, if another big jump in price I might bail. Over time they were also opening health care centers and that kept me interested but I am not hearing much about that anymore.
With that said, its not right to judge a company by your own personal experience, other than a hope and prayer others are doing the same.
Back in 2019 I didnt buy Target because my impression of our store here was like, stupid, I couldn't (and still cant) understand why people shop there, so maybe its just our store here, maybe jaded by the uni-sex bathroom commotion still too. Well TGT would have been the stock to buy at the time as it shot to the moon. I STILL would have been better off owning it today if purchased on the same date above but I dont cry about should haves.
Gosh another long post and hope I got this one right because I am starting to rush.
But to address the last line in your post, retail as a group doesnt seem like a wise idea but somehow I think WMT will be different. We all knows what happens when you think something will be different, sometimes!
WMT, COST and AMZN are on my buy list for next year.
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So, is Warren going to investigate Musk because he did so well at Tesla he caused fanboys to bid the stock up unreasonably high, or because the Twitter issue caused the stock to fall from a ludicrous evaluation to merely a ridiculous one?
Under Musk, Tesla stock has gone up 900% in 12 years. It was at 2000%. Tell me again how he has failed? I can remember when Tesla was compared to other automakers the reason for the lofty valuation was attributed to both the presence of Musk, and because "it is a tech company, not an automaker." The value of Musk hasn't changed, just the perception from former fans that want to keep a biased and heavily censored Twitter. In their minds, he has lost his halo.
Dave, I like your buy list for next year, but you may be looking at Musk through foggles. Just because he doesn't turn water into wine doesn't mean he isn't an outperforming CEO for multiple corporations simultaneously. And if the Tesla buyout of Solar City didn't tarnish him, whatever he does with Twitter will be child's play to him.
Under Musk, Tesla stock has gone up 900% in 12 years. It was at 2000%. Tell me again how he has failed? I can remember when Tesla was compared to other automakers the reason for the lofty valuation was attributed to both the presence of Musk, and because "it is a tech company, not an automaker." The value of Musk hasn't changed, just the perception from former fans that want to keep a biased and heavily censored Twitter. In their minds, he has lost his halo.
Dave, I like your buy list for next year, but you may be looking at Musk through foggles. Just because he doesn't turn water into wine doesn't mean he isn't an outperforming CEO for multiple corporations simultaneously. And if the Tesla buyout of Solar City didn't tarnish him, whatever he does with Twitter will be child's play to him.
Bam. Period.
Hmmm… can’t say I disagree with one word since much of it I have been saying since the start of the year, “it’s just a car”.
BTW I was always led to believe by some in here Tesla had the highest margins in the industry, maybe I misunderstood those posts. This guy says BMW and Mercedes does.
One thing for sure, he is passionate.
stocks.apple.com
BTW I was always led to believe by some in here Tesla had the highest margins in the industry, maybe I misunderstood those posts. This guy says BMW and Mercedes does.
One thing for sure, he is passionate.
Johnson: Tesla is just a car company that's built too much capacity it can't sell — CNBC
Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research discusses the key issues at the heart of the worst year for Tesla's stock on record.
stocks.apple.com
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Tesla needs to drop another 30-40 %.
What goes up must come down…… the bigger the top, the bigger the drop.
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Im in shock that there hasn't even been a dead cat bounce. I guess there are no more margin calls, those people have been wiped out.
But what do I know, it's kind of fun and interesting, will we get down to a lower double digit P/E? Wait we are already almost there, so where does it end?
$60 a share? $40? Assuming that growth doesnt keep taking a hit and its quite possible it will if one takes serious the over calculation of expected buyers of EV by 2030 and the fact of all the automakers jumping on board. I have no idea what so ever but I cant help but wonder, only wonder, if there will be a major over supply of EVs in the next 5 years or so.
Not to say there wont be some heydays in-between. Im truly clueless but I enjoy watching from the outside, thank god.
I was even a fan of GMs low P/E but now I am concerned even as an investment for them, they have a long terrible reputation for misreading the market and I question the sanity of committing to ending ICE production. I dont understand the logic and I will give them some credit that they may be prepared to change that at a moments notice. But then again, Charle Brown always thinks this time Lucy wont pull the football away.
Toyota seems like the only sane company out there. After getting trashed for slow adoption he may look like the hero.
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