Inflation is here

[Kawiguy454]

Wow so many different interpretations of what drives economics means some of you are completely wrong and don't know it. In a perfect free world Supply and Demand will always center itself like a ship rights itself in a storm. A balancing of forces like yin and yang in harmony. Any rational being would feel confidence in that stability and participate readily toward a thriving economic environment.

Unfortunately real freedom is waning and the basic S&D economics are a being distorted beyond recognition. The flood of manufactured cash into ppl's wallets means everyone is buying X ...and not enough X means the price goes up. The smarter ppl realize inflation is happening and take all their devaluing cash and want to lock in its value by buying hard X goods even if overpriced. To make things even worse poor leaders and bad decisions continue to be made that directly lower monetary confidence or cause real supply problems with no apparent reasonable gain. Until leadership and is held accountable and expect constituents to also be responsible for their own lives downward trends will continue.

 

[PWMDMD]

People want and expect life to be a certain way for them. Unfortunately that never pans out whether it’s a National economic policy or a personal change like a health issue. People have to learn to adapt to their situations.

You can spend money eating out or eat at home. You can eat ribeye steak or in my case for supper a nice split pea soup. Split peas are $1.49 a pound at the store we shop at. Throw some bacon ends and pieces and onion into that and you have meals for a few days.

Adapt.

I was recently just shooting the poop with a friend who knows my life story and started down the path of how bad he feels for everything I've been through - I won't bore you with the details. Yet, I was annoyed that he was trying to throw a pity party for me even if he was trying to be nice. I still have a very nice and still a very enjoyable little life. I'm not complaining. **** happens 24/7/365 and I'll ride out this nice little enjoyable life for as long as I can until **** happens to me. One thing I know for sure is everyone has their problems and no one really wants to hear about mine and I don't expect them to either. All that said, my life is mostly the product of my good decisions and hard work. Sure, there is some "luck" - I haven't been mowed down by a city bus yet or diagnosed with some terminal illness that has nothing to do with my lifestyle choices but it has been mostly me who made this happy little life. I take full responsibility for the good and the bad. I keep telling my kids my job is to grow them up so they can take care of their own **** and not bother anyone else about it.

 

[dareo]

In N Out burger changed their sign, $15-18.50 an hour, was $13.50 last i was there. Mcdonalds $15 as well.

We have people discussing the FIRE early retirement strategy and people talking about how Walmarts new mean wage of $16.40 an hour is “literally nothing, CEO makes 21 million!”

I know people that pick fruit all day long for $35 a week, in Mexico.

What happens when the inflation cycle goes deflationary and all those 15+ dollar labor shortage positions go away?

 

[Wolf359]

“It’s been explained before” is so credible.

I need to start reading the news, world economics etc. on this site. What have I been doing my whole life.

Yeah, it's a free market economy. Refineries aren't forced to buy from one particular buyer. If anything, it's opened up. While people here like to blame government policy for the high price of gas, I've yet to see exactly what government policy they're talking about. About the only thing that really happened recently was the ability for US companies to export crude oil. It was banned before. Reason for that is that lots of refineries are set up for heavy/sour oil and if you produce light sweet instead, less domestic demand for it so you make more exporting it than selling locally. Transportation can also be a factor as sending it by rail is more expensive than by ship.

 

[Wolf359]

The $1000 that my dad saved and stashed in 1970 would have bought him 23 ounces of Gold. Now worth $42,000

The $1000 that my dad saved and stashed and gave to me will buy me .55 oz of gold now. Now worth $1000.


If i would have bought $1000 in gold at my first job in 1995 I could have bought 3 oz. Now worth $5000.


Inflation sucks for those that save cash.

Inflation is great for those that buy gold.

Precious metals have been a dog for years, long term the stock market is better. $1000 stashed in the S&P 500 back in 1970 would be worth $147,455 now which really beats gold. $1000 stashed in 1995 would be worth $10,992 today and that's riding out the drop in 2000, 2008 and 2020. And you don't have to worry about someone stealing your gold, you just look at your statements online.

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-periodic-reinvestment-calculator-dividends/

 

[Wolf359]

That's what happens when you're printing money as fast as the printing presses will run. I never understood all the extra hundreds of dollars being added to unemployment. As long as there have been jobs there has been unemployment. I've been there a few times in my life but I was never getting more money in unemployment than I could make working my full time job and that's the case with lots of people now thus the reason there are jobs everywhere. This is the kind of thing that happens when 1/2 the nation is relying on the government to print money to take care of them.

Traditionally unemployment only paid 50% or less of what you were making full time. They probably should have boosted it to 70-80% but probably too hard to calculate on a short term basis so $600 and $300 were easier to do. I use the 70-80 as that's what they say you would need for income in retirement. Those at the low end made out but those in the middle class were just breaking even. That only applied to about 20 million people which while it's a lot of people, I'd hardly call that half the nation. It just expired so it's all over.

 

[Wolf359]

In N Out burger changed their sign, $15-18.50 an hour, was $13.50 last i was there. Mcdonalds $15 as well.

We have people discussing the FIRE early retirement strategy and people talking about how Walmarts new mean wage of $16.40 an hour is “literally nothing, CEO makes 21 million!”

I know people that pick fruit all day long for $35 a week, in Mexico.

What happens when the inflation cycle goes deflationary and all those 15+ dollar labor shortage positions go away?

There are more people working at Walmart than there are CEOs.

When those $15 dollar labor positions go away, the workers go away. Basically the positions get cut and workers can't find new jobs at $15+ so they're forced to take lower ones. They just don't reduce the pay, that just makes people leave the job. Happens all the time with older people, they make big money after all their seniority, then they get cut and the new college grads take over at lower pay and the old guy can't find a job for the same money. That's why it's called age discrimination.

FIRE isn't a new concept but it does have a new name. Warren Buffet was known to go around wondering if he needed a 300k haircut. He must have been thinking of a really long time horizon to get that kind of a return for the price of a haircut. I just realized that if I had somehow saved 16k instead of buying a new car in 1996, it would be worth $266k today using the S&P 500 calculator mentioned above. Couldn't have done it though, needed the car to make the money and I got a loan at the time.

I do have a theory that the ones who complain the most are the ones who don't have any assets and are always blaming other people/government for their problems. I've emptied out apartment units and put tons of stuff in the dumpers that were basically trinkets and baubles that were maybe in the sub $10 range but all that junk adds up. Plus I've seen lots of foreclosures before they were cleaned out there also tons of similar junk. One lady had boxes of losing lottery scratch tickets. Probably could have paid the rent for a few more months if it had been saved instead of wasted on lottery tickets. I guess they saved the old lottery tickets in case they hit it big.

 

[dareo]

What happens when the inflation cycle goes deflationary and all those 15+ dollar labor shortage positions go away?

My deflationary prediction: Higher wage people get hours cut and terminated for any little thing. New hires at the new market wage (or even min wage if bad enough) start on part time in mass. Once enough of the 15+ wagers have been worked out of the system they are operating on low wage again.

Problem will be when the $15+ wagers have already signed a long lease on a nice apartment, financed a car, and now have to pay for a $15 lifestyle with two $10 jobs.

Up to $18.50 for a restaurant job in Utah seems really high. Not too long ago that was a wage for a skilled carpenter, an experienced nurse, or a salaried retail manager.

I remember my days at Wal-Mart in the recession where they would talk about what masters degree holding person was just hired for the full time cashier job that week. Our facility was only about $1 above min wage at the time. The people taking the jobs were way over qualified. Today, people show up with a pulse and they are hired and paid a lot.

 

[FordMan59]

Traditionally unemployment only paid 50% or less of what you were making full time.

Exactly my point why raise it for the downturn during Covid and not other times? The reason most people couldn't live on unemployment probably had more to do with the spending decisions they'd made than if they tried to live within their means. I'd much rather live below what I can afford and have some security than take a chance on losing everything I have. I worked construction for years and in every recession building is one of the first things to get hit and last to recover. I worked when I could and saved for the hard times when there wasn't work. When I was out of work I kept the kids except when I was out job hunting or following job leads then we'd pay someone to watch them. Between my unemployment and my wife's income which was/is pretty low we always kept a roof over our heads, food in our stomachs and clothed ourselves and 2 children. I don't ever remember having to touch savings unless it was for something we wanted not what we needed. The problem now is lots of people think they're entitled to a $500K-1M house and 2 or 3 $50-100K cars. We lived in a single wide mobile home for years and I drove mostly used economy cars. I don't have a problem with someone having nice things but when they're depending on others or the government to pay for them that's when it becomes a problem. I got injured in 2000 and the only work I was able to perform afterward on a regular basis was part time (4-5 hours a day) at Walmart for about a year until I couldn't do that any longer, yet it took about 4 more years to get my disability approved. During that 4 years I was unable to work and fighting for my disability the government wasn't sending me a check for several hundred dollars every week. Had I not got injured I'd still be working. The amount that I draw SS disability now (Sept. 2021) is somewhere around 60% of what I was making when I got hurt over 21.5 years ago and there are able bodied people that are just too sorry to work that have been getting paid full time wages to sit at home and do nothing. Back when I was working construction there were a few times I'd get laid off with one company and end up going to work for another company just to have a job and taking as much as a $5-6 an hour cut in pay.

 

[Wolf359]

Exactly my point why raise it for the downturn during Covid and not other times? The reason most people couldn't live on unemployment probably had more to do with the spending decisions they'd made than if they tried to live within their means. I'd much rather live below what I can afford and have some security than take a chance on losing everything I have. I worked construction for years and in every recession building is one of the first things to get hit and last to recover. I worked when I could and saved for the hard times when there wasn't work. When I was out of work I kept the kids except when I was out job hunting or following job leads then we'd pay someone to watch them. Between my unemployment and my wife's income which was/is pretty low we always kept a roof over our heads, food in our stomachs and clothed ourselves and 2 children. I don't ever remember having to touch savings unless it was for something we wanted not what we needed. The problem now is lots of people think they're entitled to a $500K-1M house and 2 or 3 $50-100K cars. We lived in a single wide mobile home for years and I drove mostly used economy cars. I don't have a problem with someone having nice things but when they're depending on others or the government to pay for them that's when it becomes a problem. I got injured in 2000 and the only work I was able to perform afterward on a regular basis was part time (4-5 hours a day) at Walmart for about a year until I couldn't do that any longer, yet it took about 4 more years to get my disability approved. During that 4 years I was unable to work and fighting for my disability the government wasn't sending me a check for several hundred dollars every week. Had I not got injured I'd still be working. The amount that I draw SS disability now is somewhere around 60% of what I was making when I got hurt 21.5 years ago and there are able bodied people that are just too sorry to work that have been getting paid full time wages to sit at home and do nothing

I hope this doesn't get labeled political but to answer your question, the whole reason for the $600/$300 was because there were no other jobs out there as the government was the one that had shut down all those jobs. Maybe you could make a statement that it went on too long, but if you look at the statistics, the states that ended it early didn't actually get that big a decrease in unemployment. But as I said earlier, I'm not looking to blame anyone. It's all moot anyway as the assistance ends this week anyway. Can't say why they didn't do it in the last recession although in those, they did extended unemployment benefits as it was taking longer for people to get jobs.

 

[FordMan59]

I hope this doesn't get labeled political but to answer your question, the whole reason for the $600/$300 was because there were no other jobs out there as the government was the one that had shut down all those jobs. Maybe you could make a statement that it went on too long, but if you look at the statistics, the states that ended it early didn't actually get that big a decrease in unemployment. But as I said earlier, I'm not looking to blame anyone. It's all moot anyway as the assistance ends this week anyway. Can't say why they didn't do it in the last recession although in those, they did extended unemployment benefits as it was taking longer for people to get jobs.

The government wasn't the one keeping many of those people from returning to work that didn't when the opportunity arose. Nearly everywhere in town now has signs out and have for months help wanted but those jobs haven't been getting filled. Just a couple months ago when Covid numbers had declined considerably in this area the Murphy station at Walmart was having to close at 6PM because they didn't have enough help to run till the normal closing time of 10:00 or 11:00 whatever it is.

 

[Wolf359]

The government wasn't the one keeping many of those people from returning to work that didn't when the opportunity arose. Nearly everywhere in town now has signs out and have for months help wanted but those jobs haven't been getting filled.

I'm not sure there's really a good answer to that. There are probably many reasons why people might not want to work during a pandemic. But the statistics do say that the states that ended the extra bonus early didn't help lower the unemployment numbers so just blaming it on the extra payment isn't the answer. Unemployment still continues to go down, now down to 5.2% but still up from 3.5% before the pandemic. In the last recession, unemployment was as high as 9.5-10%.

 

[Ursatdx]

The fear of failure is gone.
Not that long ago if you didn't work you didn't eat.
No job meant no house or food.
You'd never think of having a child that you could not afford to feed.
Not that long ago.
I'm all for helping the helpless. We should not be helping those
who won't help themselves.
I know it's a bit off topic but there are help wanted signs everywhere
and not many takers.
The "Land of the Free" has taken on new meaning in America.

 

[FordMan59]

The fear of failure is gone.
Not that long ago if you didn't work you didn't eat.
No job meant no house or food.
You'd never think of having a child that you could not afford to feed.
Not that long ago.
I'm all for helping the helpless. We should not be helping those
who won't help themselves.
I know it's a bit off topic but there are help wanted signs everywhere
and not many takers.
The "Land of the Free" has taken on new meaning in America.

Dang, I wish I'd thought of that!!

 

[Wolf359]

The fear of failure is gone.
Not that long ago if you didn't work you didn't eat.
No job meant no house or food.
You'd never think of having a child that you could not afford to feed.
Not that long ago.
I'm all for helping the helpless. We should not be helping those
who won't help themselves.
I know it's a bit off topic but there are help wanted signs everywhere
and not many takers.
The "Land of the Free" has taken on new meaning in America.

So does that mean we should put you down for a donation or not?

 

[Rmay635703]

The cost to work at some of those jobs is higher than what you earn, Door County has close to 20,000 open positions but they don’t pay enough to live close enough to work them.

 

[PWMDMD]

I can’t believe even with the additional money that people are actually made whole enough to not work. If I couldn’t work and I went through my 6 month emergency fund unemployment benefits even with the extra cash would delay foreclosure on my house by maybe 2 days.

 

[FordMan59]

Lots of people probably don't want to work because they're afraid of being exposed to Covid but they'll go out and do anything else in public. My wife works in an elementary school where the chances of contracting Covid are pretty high and the only time she's been out of work was when she was exposed to another employee with Covid and had to quarantine for 2 weeks and about 10 days a few weeks ago when we both had Covid. I've had it and I know for some it's very dangerous but I know from experience for lots of others it's nothing like the news media would have you believe. Personally, I'd probably have never known I had it if I hadn't lost my sense of smell.

 

[PWMDMD]

Lots of people probably don't want to work because they're afraid of being exposed to Covid but they'll go out and do anything else in public. My wife works in an elementary school where the chances of contracting Covid are pretty high and the only time she's been out of work was when she was exposed to another employee with Covid and had to quarantine for 2 weeks and about 10 days a few weeks ago when we both had Covid. I've had it and I know for some it's very dangerous but I know from experience for lots of others it's nothing like the news media would have you believe. Personally, I'd probably have never known I had it if I hadn't lost my sense of smell.

The problem is no one has any clue how bad it will be for them until they have it. While most people will be fine, over a half million so far weren’t. Too many people pretend they know how they’ll do because they’re “young and healthy” but the truth is they have no idea prior to having it. An abundance of caution for everyone is the correct choice.

I know two healthy under 45 who are now dead. My business partner and his kids barely had a sniffle but his wife, who is 42 and personal trainer in perfect health, spent 3 weeks in the hospital and still has problems now 8 months later. No thank you, I’ll pass on rolling those dice.

 

[FordMan59]

The cost to work at some of those jobs is higher than what you earn, Door County has close to 20,000 open positions but they don’t pay enough to live close enough to work them.

As I said in an earlier post in years past I took jobs at $5-6 an hour less than my previous job just to be able to work when I could have drawn more sitting at home, not had to pay a babysitter or buy a couple tanks of gas per week. During those times it was bringing my wages down very near federal minimum wage and we never missed a meal. This goes back to what I said earlier about people living beyond their means.