If USA enters second recession is YOUR job safe ?

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Originally Posted By: urchin
Bottom line we are in a never ending recession increasing into a depression BECAUSE MOST ALL THE GOOD PAYING JOBS ARE GONE!

The work has been outsourced to the dictatorship of CHINA and other slave wage nations.

If you want to revive our US economy we need to bring manufacturing back to the US in a HUGE way ASAP and deport all illegal aliens. If things continue the way they are the US will be a third world nation in less than 50 years.


A few points here.

1. There are lots of good paying jobs around, they are just a bit different than they were 30 years ago. Today you actually have to be educated and willing to follow the jobs.

2. All the work has not be outsourced to China; China is experiencing a huge loss of jobs due to outsourcing to other countries including the US.

3. The US is a manufacturing powerhouse and manufacturing is one of the driving forces behind this recovery. The idea that we don't manufacture here anymore is simply not true.
 
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
I think your vision is flawed on this, Drew.
First of all, the earth cannot support another entity like the US or the EU.
The resource aren't there, however much exploration and exploitation may ensue.


It could if both US ane Europe go down a notch and the Asia go up a notch, it could also means while we all use the same amount of lifestyle, the resource per nation per lifestyle is reduced (by reduced population growth and increased efficiency).

i.e. You'll still spend $300 a month on fuel, but instead of burning 150 gallons you will be burning 75 gallons because both fuel economy and fuel cost go up.

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Second, the US is the largest, richest market in the world, with the EU a fairly close second.
Any company that wants to make money has to be here, as either a manufacturer or an importer, or even indirectly.


Uh.. you do know that most of the profit growth of McDonalds, are from CHINA now right? I also read a financial research (those that cost $1500 each copy, for investment bank to research portfolio stakes) that said Latin American government encourages their exporters to shift their sales from America and Europe dominance to Asia oriented, because they do not see much growth in the US in the short term (next 2 years or so).

Same for BMW and Daimler, their new profit growth are in Asia, not the saturated market in the US. The point is, if you want to make money you have to look for new market where billions of people are trying to improve their living standard.

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It is in nobody's interest to bring down the US economy, and I also doubt that the greedocrats could enter into a conspiracy to sacrifice the US in order to promote the rest of the world.
They don't trust one another, and with good reason.


It is not that the greedy government (more like the other party than the one you are talking about who wants free trade and outsourcing) want to bring down America and Europe, it is that the human nature would not want to sacrifice profit just to keep their neighbors from unemployment. You can setup trade barrier if you have control on all of the choke points (tariff, currency, natural resource, border, international market, etc), but we don't, and somehow competitions will always find a loop hole to exploit, or buy a loop hole with campaign money.
 
PandaBear,
You have fallen prey to another fallacy.
Yes, the rate of growth in sales for McDonald's, BMW and DB are much higher in China than in the US, but that is built on a very low base number.
Here is an example.
Current Chinese GDP growth per annum is around 10%, while US GDP growth over the current year will likely be around 2%.
Which nation will have the larger nominal growth in per capita GDP?
If you said China, fail.
High growth rates from a low base look impressive.
Low growth rates from a high base are impressive.
 
Originally Posted By: hattaresguy

Lets break this down:

1. The economy has not stopped growing, it still is GDP is forecast to rise this year.
So in short you guys all worry to much


The Government has thrown over 5 trillion into the economy since 2008 ..that's like 15% of GDP every year..and yet we have lost jobs and almost no growth.

Imagine what it would have bee without that shot of borrowed cash. And its not possible to keep it up.

Where is this growth going to come from when net wealth continues to go down...bolstered only by borrowed money?

I meas this is so easy to see and yet Bernanke and Geithner either don't understand...or more properly can'tr allow the Ponzi scheme to unravel..yet.

Seems like the Government believes that building more hamburger stands can somehow create more wealth.
 
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Originally Posted By: fdcg27
PandaBear,
You have fallen prey to another fallacy.


You are the one that said it doesn't have to be a zero sum game.

Yet you just mentioned that the world cannot support another US/Europe like entity with same or similar living standard because the resource is not going to be available. So you just slapped yourself for saying the opposite of what you meant.

Every nation who traded with us on the basis of exporting into the US market has its economy growth till the saturation of their living standard to be near US/Europe. Examples: Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and very soon Korea. It will take a LONG time before China can catch up to anywhere close to Taiwan (which China want to emulate the living standard on), and before that, the US consumption will reduce and cost of living will increase, and the trade relationship will be similar to US vs these Asian nations.

You refuse to call that a zero sum game, but it will approach the equilibrium in the middle adjusted for inflation. What do you call that?
 
Originally Posted By: Al
The Government has thrown over 5 trillion into the economy since 2008 ..that's like 15% of GDP every year..and yet we have lost jobs and almost no growth.

Imagine what it would have bee without that shot of borrowed cash. And its not possible to keep it up.

Where is this growth going to come from when net wealth continues to go down...bolstered only by borrowed money?

I meas this is so easy to see and yet Bernanke and Geithner either don't understand...or more properly can'tr allow the Ponzi scheme to unravel..yet.

Seems like the Government believes that building more hamburger stands can somehow create more wealth.



It would have loss even more jobs and end in a depression instead. The problem was banks all got caught not having enough cash and they would be failing with a magnitude that even FDIC would not be able to protect them. We've seen that in great depression, do you really think that would be cheaper to the government than 5T QE?

The net wealth originally a bubble borrowed in the past from the future. The market from 2000 since the dot com bubble burst was never recovered if not for the artificially low interest rate, and a lot of the economic activities were on the raised expectation and loan on financing the war, and a lot of the wealth are created from that and hidden and paid for in real estate bubble. To dumb it down for you: dot com bubble -> real estate bubble -> pay for war and the money already made by people who won in the bubble -> bad bank debt -> government debt from bail out and the war debt.

It is easy to see if you only look at the whole economy from a burger stand, because all you can see is beef price went up and fuel cost went up, but the consumer keeps paying the same price and you are on the short charged. If you follow the money most of them were already made by the savvy investors who took the profit and now someone else (banks) are holding the bag. You can collapse the banks so some other guys lost their savings or retirement fund, or you can let the government put a bandaid on it by printing money.

Seems like you are suggesting we should let someone else hold the bags instead.
 
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
I'm in school to become a science teacher. Given our country's historical attitude toward education and its recent attitude toward science, I laugh at the idea of job security.

Congrats! and +1. I've been putting on public star parties for the past 13 yrs. I'm amazed at how many adults don't understand why we have seasons. (Most of the kids DO know). There is a lot of ignorance regarding even basic science amongst the populace. . . hello? This is 2011!
 
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You apparently misunderstood what I wrote, and you also appear to overestimate the standard of living enjoyed in most developed Asian nations.
Japan is clearly the most developed of Asian nations.
If you consider living in a tiny house the size of most American family rooms to be parity with the American standard of living, then I suppose you're right.
Japan is our equal.
The reality is quite different.
No Asian nation comes close to the level of material wealth, living space, cheap transportation as well and cheap meat, fish and poultry that we enjoy in the US.
Far from slapping myself, I merely pointed out a reality.
China, as well as the rest of Asia, can do better for its people, without sapping the resources of our planet.
Chinese can enjoy a considerably better lifestyle than that to which they've become accustomed without coming close to US levels of resource consumption.
I had the courtesy to actually read your post, and to not quote things out of context.
Please extend me the same courtesy.
 
If we do not create some jobs, and the resultant tax revenue, we are all up that famous creek without a paddle.
 
I think many on here want the U.S. to fail. Apparently everyone is an economist these days.
grin.gif
 
Originally Posted By: PandaBear

It would have loss even more jobs and end in a depression instead.
Seems like you are suggesting we should let someone else hold the bags instead.

My point is that we are just postponing the inevitable. Right wrong or indifferent...its gonna happen.

In the great depression, people endured much. Its not possible to prevent it from happening again..unfortunately. Many people will hold the bag and just like the Great depression..many will prosper.
 
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
You apparently misunderstood what I wrote, and you also appear to overestimate the standard of living enjoyed in most developed Asian nations.
Japan is clearly the most developed of Asian nations.
If you consider living in a tiny house the size of most American family rooms to be parity with the American standard of living, then I suppose you're right.
Japan is our equal.
The reality is quite different.
No Asian nation comes close to the level of material wealth, living space, cheap transportation as well and cheap meat, fish and poultry that we enjoy in the US.
Far from slapping myself, I merely pointed out a reality.
China, as well as the rest of Asia, can do better for its people, without sapping the resources of our planet.
Chinese can enjoy a considerably better lifestyle than that to which they've become accustomed without coming close to US levels of resource consumption.
I had the courtesy to actually read your post, and to not quote things out of context.
Please extend me the same courtesy.


My apology, I should have been more polite.

I however still do not think you are understanding the original argument. It doesn't need to be dot to dot identical between nations before the import/export/out souring to be in equilibrium.

No one outsource to Japan now because their labor cost is higher than the US (other than a few union protected profession in some part of the US).

You mention the standard of living, yet it is not about the standard of living because cost of the same items (housing, vehicles, fuels, foods) are all cheaper in absolute dollar adjusted for exchange rate in the US. US no longer outsource to Taiwan / Japan / Hong Kong due to labor cost. Some jobs may moved permanently due to each nation's strength, but not because the man hour price difference. Even Korea is in transition, their low end TVs are now build in China.

China can do better to make their standard of living of most citizen higher, that I agree. They go with a different approach in economic development after learning from the success and failure of other Asian nations. They learned from India that only keeping a small percentage of middle class wealthy is not going to grow a long term prosperity, so they focus on the low end production work that can employ massive amount of people, factories that hire half a million people each living in dorm. They learn from Malaysia and Philippine that if you do not control technologies eventually you are at the mercy of the technologies owner (i.e. Japan) and will always be a developing nation begging for scrap off the table, so they force companies to sell, license at least obsoleted technologies to them for making them eventually home grown. They learn from Taiwan that you can partner with others and gradually develop technologies and become a net winner when they commoditize, and from Hong Kong that you need to partner with foreign capital in order to build a sizable and stable economy.

It's going to take awhile for the Chinese working for $250 a month to be too expensive to out source to, but like all these other nations, eventually that would happen, maybe in 30-50 years. That doesn't means Chinese family of 4 will live in 2000 sqft house, buying 39c/lb oranges, pumping $4/gal fuel, buying a new car every 7 years for $20k, and eating meats at $2/lb, but that could means that building Walmart junks and ship it 1/2 a globe away is not profitable compare to building it in the middle of West Virginia or Mexico.
 
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Well I guess those of you that think the economy is just doing great with an increase in unemployment every month and noe an unemployment avg posted by local governments in No, Indiana at over 10 % I guess things are just hunkey dorry. In reality the unemployment is higher and among some groups is as high as 29%.

Things are just great.

And I never touched on inflation. Don't have inflation? Try checking the meat and cereal shelves at your local grocery. But then growing corn to fuel our vehicles makes for good sense.
 
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT


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The problem I see is that the world economic reality we face today has been put in place ON PURPOSE to benefit multi-national corporations. They're the ones who fund elections. They don't want US prosperity like after WWII because it will be at the expense of overseas prosperity. They want the entire world to be on a level playing field; if that means the US is brought down a notch, it means the rest of the world is brought up a notch. The sacrifice in America's prosperity will be matched 10 fold with an entire world population of good little consumers.



This is EXACTLY what is happening. Watch Wall street closely for the next few weeks to see why.....


Ever wonder why somebody else's problem (the euro, for example) has such a great effect on WS? Same with the gas companies, who continue to fool the general consumer....

The american public needs to get the wool out of their eyes....
 
Originally Posted By: Al
Originally Posted By: PandaBear

It would have loss even more jobs and end in a depression instead.
Seems like you are suggesting we should let someone else hold the bags instead.

My point is that we are just postponing the inevitable. Right wrong or indifferent...its gonna happen.

In the great depression, people endured much. Its not possible to prevent it from happening again..unfortunately. Many people will hold the bag and just like the Great depression..many will prosper.


+1
 
I'm 4 years out of college, and very underemployed. There isn't much in Buffalo, and I look all the time. I'm just glad to have a job with benefits that is pretty secure, but I am looking to some of the southern states especially Texas for a job in my field.

My fiance is getting her masters degree here, so we are stuck in Western New York at least another two years.

We're just getting by and are saddling very large student debt payments.
 
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